Bowl Thread

[Dice34]

GL smitty today

i hear there is a rumor that joe pa is wearing a diaper in their bowl game b/c he doesnt want to take a chance of running across the field during the game leaving his leg exposed to a re-injury. Any truth to that???

just playing.........Hope you hit both today

 

[Smitty]

thanks, dice. gl to you, too. unless you are on the other sides, of course.

just remember though... there is nothing funny about adult incontinence. you need to have more respect for your elders. even if he is to wear a diaper, it will be an ADULT diaper, like a depends. not a huggies, or anything like that. a depends is much more dignified.

 

[Smitty]

MPC Computers Bowl

MPC Computers Bowl

i liked it better when it was the humanitarian bowl. made me feel a little better about losing money on it.

creeping closer and closer to profitibility on the bowl games. heaven forbid a 21-3 halftime lead with a defense that had given up 6 points in their last 3 games hold up.

nevada (+3.5) 2 units. the miami hurricanes? in idaho? are you kidding me? after the season they had? somehow i don't think they are really too fired up to play a big game for coker. he's like the crazy uncle they just kinda tolerated. nevada is 5-1 ATS away from home; miami is 1-4 (and 2-4 as a fav). sure, talent-wise this is a huge mismatch, but how often does that matter in a bowl game?

under (43) 1 unit. very tough to play an under in a bowl game right now. but i think even a disinterested miami defense will be good enough to keep nevada from scoring too much and miami's offense has been pitiful all year. heck, they only put up 20 on duke. :scared

 

[Smitty]

Outback Bowl

Outback Bowl

decided i'd better post my new years day picks now... on the off chance i am too hung over/get out of bed too late tomorrow morning.

penn state (+4) 2 units. :scared really not a 'homer' play. penn state was not very good this year. in fact, i can't make much of a case for them winning this game or even keeping it close. they were 1-4 ATS away from home; tennessee was 4-1. penn state was 0-4 ATS at a dog. tennessee's strength on offense (the passing game) matches up perfectly against penn state's weakness on defense. but this line seems a little low. 81% of bettors seem to agree. yet the line actually dropped from 4.5 to 4. so much in college football is dependent on coaching though, and i have to go with joepa (even on one leg) getting points from phat phil. wait, that should be 'fat' phil.

over (41) 1 unit. i just don't see penn state stopping tennessee from scoring, so i have to believe penn state will put up some points of their own.

 

[Smitty]

Gator Bowl

Gator Bowl

georgia tech (+11) 1 unit. i'm hardly the first to voice this sentiment, but georgia tech HAS to be better off without reggie ball. hell, even i could hit calvin johnson a few times a game on jump balls. this just means we're going to see a lot of tashard choice, and that is a good thing. the running game will keep the clock moving, unlike reggie's incomplete passes. and has anybody seen west virginia's defense? they are a sieve. i just look at this as 4 bonus points.

over (47.5) 1 unit. again, to say west virginia's defense is porous would be a vast understatement. i'm fairly certain there are some pee wee football teams that could score on them. granted, these would be only the elite pee wee teams, but i think there are some out there. and west virginia will definitely put up some points.

 

[Smitty]

Rose Bowl

Rose Bowl

michigan (PK) 1 unit. very tough game to 'cap. dificult to judge which, if either, team will be motivated to get a win here. both felt they should have been playing in the NC. michigan got screwed by the polls; usc laid a turd their last game. i think that last factor is what sways it to michigan. they should be playing with a chip on their shoulders. probably the biggest concern... this means i need lloyd carr to beat pete carill. :scared however, michigan was 5-0 ATS away from home, and 2-0 as a dog this year. it may help their motivation that they are playing usc in southern california. they can definitely take on an 'it's us against the world' mentality. i like the way michigan matches up in this game, and i think usc was a little down this year.

definite lean to the under as well, but not a play. yet.

 

[Smitty]

Fiesta Bowl

Fiesta Bowl

boise st (+7) 3 units. love this play. after watching the big 12 championship, i knew i was going against oklahoma. i am simply not impressed by this team. the qb/wr/qb again (thompson?) is about as accurate as i am. granted, he is slightly more athletic. the wac was probably just about as good as the big 12 this year. boise will be fired up to play in the fiesta bowl. hell, they'd be fired up to play any bowl game not on the smurf turf. one rather glaring fact... adrien peterson is going to play, but the line has slipped down from 8 to 7. hmmmm... vegas musta heard i love the broncos.

happy new year to all

 

[Smitty]

Orange Bowl

Orange Bowl

don't look now, but smitty's in the black. :shrug: congratulations to everybody who 'tailed me yesterday, especially on boise. got way too close for comfort, but a win is a win. great performance from the broncos, and what incredible play calling at the end of regulation and the 2-point conversion.

wake forest (+10) 2 units. i really like this play. but at 10, it seems a little fishy. i would have thought 7 or 8 was a more reasonable line. the overriding stat that i cannot overlook though... the 'dog is 11-0 ATS in wake games this year. that's a big number. wake is also 6-1 ATS away from home. louisville is only 3-3. i really liked what little i've seen from wake's freshman qb. very poised and also very accurate. hopefully he won't make any big mistakes early, and he'll be able to settle in and play a big game. the acc championship may have been a bigger game for him, because it was in his hometown of jacksonville. he settled right in that game and played very well.
i don't think this louisville team is quite as talented as the last few years. still very good, but just a notch below where they have been. if they jump out to a lead though, it could be a very long night for the demon deacons.

 

[Smitty]

Sugar Bowl

Sugar Bowl

tough loss last night. wake forest played their hearts out, and skinner had a hell of a game. oh well, moving forward...

lsu (-8.5) 3 units. very similar to last year's fiesta bowl. "really? notre dame's getting how many points?" i couldn't tell people enough last year how much i loved ohio state in that game. however, one big factor that is missing this year... weis was not going to outcoach jim tressel. this year... les miles? yeah, lsu will be outcoached. and it's very difficult to take a big fav that is going to be outcoached. however... the talent gap is so huge in this game, notre dame will need several big breaks to stay close to lsu. are they capable of getting those breaks? of course they are. and they are very capable of capitalizing on those breaks. these factors are keeping this from being as big a play as ohio state in last year's fiesta. but lsu should roll in this game. nd's defense is so poor... lsu's lack of a running game will not matter. russell is an excellent qb who will burn nd's secondary all night. and lsu's defense will stop nd enough times to allow lsu to pull away.

over (56.5) 1 unit. realistically, there is no way this game goes under the total.

 

[Smitty]

NC Game

NC Game

here it is... the moment you've all been waiting for... smitty's pick in the national championship game. bear in mind, i have been on the wrong side for the last... well, i truly cannot remember the last time i had the right team in the national championship game. in fact, how many years have we had the bcs? i may have never hit the championship game. drum roll please...

ohio state (-7.5) 2 units. really boils down to a few things. 1) i simply think ohio state is the superior football team. they have been on a mission all year. florida has escaped a few games by the skin of their teeth. 2) ohio state is 4-1 ATS away from home; florida is 1-5 :scared . 3) quarterback play. when i first saw chris leak as a freshman, i was very impressed. thought he was going to be the next great florida qb. however, he has not gotten any better since then. i know he has legitimate excuses (first and foremost, playing in 3 different systems), but i just have not seen any improvement from him. last year, i was not a troy smith fan. thought he was just another great athlete playing qb. but he has impressed the hell out of me this year. turned himself into a heck of a qb. big edge here to ohio state.

under (47.5) 1 unit. have to give myself a chance to finish the season on the plus side, including the regular season and the bowl games. both teams have explosive play makers... blah blah blah... everybody is on the over, smitty has to play the under.