Bowl Week card (Dec 14th -Jan 4th)
- Thread starter Irish
- Start date
Not the best effort by the rockets tonight but I guess they had to lose at some point when trailing at the half! Yep, they looked great on the defensive side of the ball tonight!
Wow yesterday was very unkind!
Iowa St (+1.5 / ML) over Miami (OH)
Iowa st came on at the end of the season. A LOT of young talent for Iowa St at the skill positions, that will be very excited about playing in this game. The defense is playing better of late and they have some senior leadership (DE Tyson Smith, LB Brandon Brown and CB Ellis Hobbs). On the other sideline the redhawks are playing their last game for their coach Hoeppner going to Indiana (distraction?). The red hawks best WR is Larkin and he is recovering from a stab wound, not sure if he will be much of a factor. The Cyclones offense has not been as explosive as Miami's. The red hawks have played some tough competition in Michigan, Toledo, Akron, Marshall and Cincy. They did beat Akron and Toledo once but they lost to the others. Iowa St has played some tough big 12 teams and some stiff outside conference teams (No. Ill and Iowa). Aside from the Okla St and Texas A&M game the cyclones have played every team tough. Iowa st has to establish the run game or at least establish the threat of a run game because the Miami OH defense plays the run very well but is not so well against the pass. Bret Meyer has to be able to make plays with his feet and use his scrambling ability to continue drives.
Cheers
Irish
Iowa St (+1.5 / ML) over Miami (OH)
Iowa st came on at the end of the season. A LOT of young talent for Iowa St at the skill positions, that will be very excited about playing in this game. The defense is playing better of late and they have some senior leadership (DE Tyson Smith, LB Brandon Brown and CB Ellis Hobbs). On the other sideline the redhawks are playing their last game for their coach Hoeppner going to Indiana (distraction?). The red hawks best WR is Larkin and he is recovering from a stab wound, not sure if he will be much of a factor. The Cyclones offense has not been as explosive as Miami's. The red hawks have played some tough competition in Michigan, Toledo, Akron, Marshall and Cincy. They did beat Akron and Toledo once but they lost to the others. Iowa St has played some tough big 12 teams and some stiff outside conference teams (No. Ill and Iowa). Aside from the Okla St and Texas A&M game the cyclones have played every team tough. Iowa st has to establish the run game or at least establish the threat of a run game because the Miami OH defense plays the run very well but is not so well against the pass. Bret Meyer has to be able to make plays with his feet and use his scrambling ability to continue drives.
Cheers
Irish
Oregon St (-4) over ND
I am a huge Irish fan but in this case Oregon St has the offense to out right handle ND. Anderson might be an interception machine but the Irish have struggled defending the pass. The Beavers average 304.4 passing yards per game, ranking eighth in the country. ND allowed 274.27 passing yards per game, ranking 114 out of 117 Division I-A teams. In ND's last 2 games against pitt and USC both QB's threw for 5 TD'S! The teeth of the Irish defense is against the run. Irish are 9th nationally in run defense at 94.4 yards per game But the Beavers are next-to-last nationally with a mere 75.3 rushing yards per game. So Oregon is used to getting it done through the air.
NOW on defense for Oregon the box should have 8 guys in it. The beavers have good CB's and should be able to handle ND's WR one v one. Oregon State secondary that has intercepted 18 passes, tied for the 5th-most in the nation. Both teams are 6-5 but Oregon St won it's last 2 games and ND lost it final 2. Actually ND lost 3 of it's last 4 and should have lost to Tennessee if the Vol's coach wasn't a moron. This end of the season collapse led to the firing of the head coach. Playing for Defensive Co could also be a distraction, considering there are rumors of Baer joining Willingham or going somewhere else as well.
I think the passing attack of Oregon St will be too much for ND. If the Irish go into coverage formations they take out 1 or two of their LB's and that limits them against the run because the LB's are one of their strengths. I would look out for the fake screen pass to the TE up the middle! Oregon st uses this play and it should catch an aggressive ND defense off guard. When ND has the ball they will run it more than pass because Quinn has a tendency to throw balls into coverage, something that will not go unpunished against this secondary. So Swancutt has to have a big game not only getting pressure on Quinn but pushing the line of scrimmage back so the running game is throw off balance.
Cheers
Irish
I am a huge Irish fan but in this case Oregon St has the offense to out right handle ND. Anderson might be an interception machine but the Irish have struggled defending the pass. The Beavers average 304.4 passing yards per game, ranking eighth in the country. ND allowed 274.27 passing yards per game, ranking 114 out of 117 Division I-A teams. In ND's last 2 games against pitt and USC both QB's threw for 5 TD'S! The teeth of the Irish defense is against the run. Irish are 9th nationally in run defense at 94.4 yards per game But the Beavers are next-to-last nationally with a mere 75.3 rushing yards per game. So Oregon is used to getting it done through the air.
NOW on defense for Oregon the box should have 8 guys in it. The beavers have good CB's and should be able to handle ND's WR one v one. Oregon State secondary that has intercepted 18 passes, tied for the 5th-most in the nation. Both teams are 6-5 but Oregon St won it's last 2 games and ND lost it final 2. Actually ND lost 3 of it's last 4 and should have lost to Tennessee if the Vol's coach wasn't a moron. This end of the season collapse led to the firing of the head coach. Playing for Defensive Co could also be a distraction, considering there are rumors of Baer joining Willingham or going somewhere else as well.
I think the passing attack of Oregon St will be too much for ND. If the Irish go into coverage formations they take out 1 or two of their LB's and that limits them against the run because the LB's are one of their strengths. I would look out for the fake screen pass to the TE up the middle! Oregon st uses this play and it should catch an aggressive ND defense off guard. When ND has the ball they will run it more than pass because Quinn has a tendency to throw balls into coverage, something that will not go unpunished against this secondary. So Swancutt has to have a big game not only getting pressure on Quinn but pushing the line of scrimmage back so the running game is throw off balance.
Cheers
Irish
UTEP (+3/ML) over Colorado
If anything Oklahoma gave the coaching staff the outright blue print how to stop Colorado on offense. If you take away their running game the Buffalo's are done. That being said is not too easy to do for a team like UTEP that is out-weight (31 pounds per man) by the Colorado offensive line that averages 6-foot-4 and 296 pounds! Still Frenso st showed that quickness beats a big line. This is bad news because The Miners have been poor against the run this season, allowing 153.9 yards per game. However The Miners are fast and hard-hitting, and forced 30 turnovers and 39 sacks on the season. The Miners also had 18 interceptions to rank 5th in the nation. The Buffalo's are in danger because Klatt threw just 9 TD's and 15 interceptions. So this tells me the Buffalo's will flat out try to run over the miners. Utep did handle La Tech which leads me to believe they can stop the run, holding Ryan Moats to under 100 yards on the day. But they play IMO a weak schedule.
UTEP on offense likes to pass the ball but overlooked is Howard Jackson. As much as Purify is a great back Jackson has the ability to break it open and against Colorado's poor defense, Jackson should have a good day. Opening it up for Palmer to throw it deep. Also looks like a big UTEP crowd, Colorado had sold less than 1,000 tickets from its allotment. UTEP has the balance offensively to keep a poor Colorado defense on its heels. The have the speed on the D-line to get to Klatt and force his to make bad throws into coverage. Lil Palmer has talent at WR and should be able to connect on some big plays. Coach price should have the game plan for the Buffalo. Colorado might still have their helmets hung low after Oklahoma out right crushed them in the championship. The Miners will come in excited for this opportunity to play in the bowl game, against a big name school, they should play with a lot of energy and play like they have something to prove with nothing to lose!
Cheers
Irish
If anything Oklahoma gave the coaching staff the outright blue print how to stop Colorado on offense. If you take away their running game the Buffalo's are done. That being said is not too easy to do for a team like UTEP that is out-weight (31 pounds per man) by the Colorado offensive line that averages 6-foot-4 and 296 pounds! Still Frenso st showed that quickness beats a big line. This is bad news because The Miners have been poor against the run this season, allowing 153.9 yards per game. However The Miners are fast and hard-hitting, and forced 30 turnovers and 39 sacks on the season. The Miners also had 18 interceptions to rank 5th in the nation. The Buffalo's are in danger because Klatt threw just 9 TD's and 15 interceptions. So this tells me the Buffalo's will flat out try to run over the miners. Utep did handle La Tech which leads me to believe they can stop the run, holding Ryan Moats to under 100 yards on the day. But they play IMO a weak schedule.
UTEP on offense likes to pass the ball but overlooked is Howard Jackson. As much as Purify is a great back Jackson has the ability to break it open and against Colorado's poor defense, Jackson should have a good day. Opening it up for Palmer to throw it deep. Also looks like a big UTEP crowd, Colorado had sold less than 1,000 tickets from its allotment. UTEP has the balance offensively to keep a poor Colorado defense on its heels. The have the speed on the D-line to get to Klatt and force his to make bad throws into coverage. Lil Palmer has talent at WR and should be able to connect on some big plays. Coach price should have the game plan for the Buffalo. Colorado might still have their helmets hung low after Oklahoma out right crushed them in the championship. The Miners will come in excited for this opportunity to play in the bowl game, against a big name school, they should play with a lot of energy and play like they have something to prove with nothing to lose!
Cheers
Irish
GL on the Miners today Irish. Placed a wager on them myself. Let's hope you keep the streak from yesterday going. Congrats on a great day. GO UTEP! 
Oklahoma St (-2) over Ohio St
Suspensions...OSU's send some players home before this game goes off. But out of those send homes the player that hurts the most is Smith from the buckeyes. All indications Zwick (completed 81-of-160 passes for 1,020 yards with 5 TD's and 6 interceptions in 6 games 3-3 record) will be the guy tonight, which is bad news. The Ohio st offense was just starting to click and with the addition of spread formations Smith was turning out some big plays. Now they have to turn the ball right back into the running backs hands and hope Zwick can shack off a season of rust. The play makers for Ohio St are their WR's (AND K Mike Nugent) and without the QB to get them the ball the buckeyes offense will not go (Okie St was BAD against the pass in their last 4 games, giving up and average of 263 yards). If Ohio st has any shot it is on special teams (kickoff returns and kickoff coverage, the Cowboys ranked 3rd in special teams, but the Buckeyes came in No. 4) and on defense. Ohio State ranks 21st in scoring defense (allowing 19.2 ppg). The Buckeyes also allow 336.2 yards per game -- which ranks 37th in the NCAA (not an Ohio St norm but still a solid defense).
Bad news is the best weapon Oklie st has plays right into the Ohio st defense. Vernand Morency (145.4 ypg, 3rd in the Big 12 and 8th NCAA).
He will try to establish a running game against the very talented group of LB's. Oklahoma State leads the nation with a plus-18 turnover margin, they need to get pressure on Zwick and force him into a few of those turn-overs. Oklahoma State coach Les Miles said his team has tweaked its defensive approach because Zwick is more of a pure pocket passer. "We will blitz more to the inside instead of the outside,". Oklie st has a good O-line and should be able to open some running room, but it is the passing game of Woods that will turn heads tonight. He has a good touch with the deep ball and has the ability to pull the ball down and scramble if a play breaks down. Morency should suck the LB's in and Woods can beat the secondary over the top!
Cheers
Irish
Suspensions...OSU's send some players home before this game goes off. But out of those send homes the player that hurts the most is Smith from the buckeyes. All indications Zwick (completed 81-of-160 passes for 1,020 yards with 5 TD's and 6 interceptions in 6 games 3-3 record) will be the guy tonight, which is bad news. The Ohio st offense was just starting to click and with the addition of spread formations Smith was turning out some big plays. Now they have to turn the ball right back into the running backs hands and hope Zwick can shack off a season of rust. The play makers for Ohio St are their WR's (AND K Mike Nugent) and without the QB to get them the ball the buckeyes offense will not go (Okie St was BAD against the pass in their last 4 games, giving up and average of 263 yards). If Ohio st has any shot it is on special teams (kickoff returns and kickoff coverage, the Cowboys ranked 3rd in special teams, but the Buckeyes came in No. 4) and on defense. Ohio State ranks 21st in scoring defense (allowing 19.2 ppg). The Buckeyes also allow 336.2 yards per game -- which ranks 37th in the NCAA (not an Ohio St norm but still a solid defense).
Bad news is the best weapon Oklie st has plays right into the Ohio st defense. Vernand Morency (145.4 ypg, 3rd in the Big 12 and 8th NCAA).
He will try to establish a running game against the very talented group of LB's. Oklahoma State leads the nation with a plus-18 turnover margin, they need to get pressure on Zwick and force him into a few of those turn-overs. Oklahoma State coach Les Miles said his team has tweaked its defensive approach because Zwick is more of a pure pocket passer. "We will blitz more to the inside instead of the outside,". Oklie st has a good O-line and should be able to open some running room, but it is the passing game of Woods that will turn heads tonight. He has a good touch with the deep ball and has the ability to pull the ball down and scramble if a play breaks down. Morency should suck the LB's in and Woods can beat the secondary over the top!
Cheers
Irish
New Mexico (-2) over Navy
New Mexico is 8th in run defense, allowing just 93.6 yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry and hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown in 5 games(Navy averages 291.4 rushing yards per game, ranked third in the nation). The Lobos also racked up 42 sacks this season (24 in their last four games). On offense the Lobos line averages about 320 pounds per man (Navy's three-man defensive front goes 250, 282 and 247 pounds the allow 145.5ypg rushing, 55th in the nation). New Mexico averages 175.8 yards per game on the ground. HOWEVER both teams have no passing game whatsoever!! NAVY lives by the run and they try to get about 300 rushing yards per game. New Mexico has only given up 200 yards 5 times in 58 games. I hate going against a team that runs the triple option as well as Navy. New Mexico has seen it once in a LOSS at Air Force, and Navy runs it better than Air Force (IMO). BUT New Mexico has won its last 5 games against some good talent while Navy won it last two against Rutgers and Army. I think both teams will depend on the run so line size will be key, the big boys up front should be able to open up holes for Moore.
No. Ill (+3) over Troy St
The huskies have played well of late and it only lost in it's last 8 games came against Toledo when No. Ill best run option was sidelined with an eye problem. Not to mention Toledo is a heck of a ball club when healthy! The Troy St run defense ranked 1st in the Sun Belt and 5th nationally by allowing only 90 yards a game. Troy led the nation with 25 interceptions and had a plus-12 turnover margin. Northern Illinois averages 35 points and 240 yards rushing a game. The Trojans ranked second in the Sun Belt at almost 170 yards rushing. NO. Ill defense has given up big plays all season. Wolfe for No. Ill has to hold on to the ball. Troy is not the best offensive team in the country but what scares me is they get so many turnover close to the redzone, they have short fields in which to score. Tonight I think No. Ill can avoid the turnover and come away with a victory.
Texas Tech (+11) over Cal
Bears allow 212.8 passing yards per game, rating 57th in Division I-A. Texas Tech averages a national-best 388.7 ypg, total offense (370.5). Cumbie's pass efficiency rating ranks 29th. The red raiders are 13th in pass defense! Honestly this game should be a shootout and Texas tech has the weapons to stay in a high scoring game. Cal has a good defense but Cumbie can move the ball on them. IMO TT has to use the pass to set up the run. Oregon had a lot of success through the air and TT should to. On defense the Raiders will give up yards but they have to play their game.
Alabama (-1.5) over Minny
The tide's defense should be enough to hold of the Gopher running attack. On offense the tide should be able to run the ball. The Gophers give up 408.7 yards a game, a figure that ranks 86th in the nation. Tide offense ranks 91st in yards gained at 332.4 per game. The gophers have lost 5 of their last 6 and if the tide can stop them a few time and get some points the gophers might quit. Pennington HAS to protect the ball. He throws a lot of picks and that is something that could hurt bama. Best option is to let Darby run all over a poor gopher defense.
Purdue (-7) over Arizona St
No Starting QB and without their top 3 RB's the sun devils might be a little deflated. Purdue started to regain some of its confidence in it's last two games a win over Ohio St and crushing Indiana. Kyle Orton, Purdue averages 324.8 passing yards per game, the 4th best in the nation. Purdue's defense allowed 16.3 ppg -- ranking 15th in the nation. The sun devils defense allowed an average of 34.5 points per game. CB Josh Golden (5-foot-9) and the rest of ASU's corners could have a very tough time against 6-1 WR Taylor Stubblefield and 6-9 Kyle Ingraham. Just two teams going in opposite directions. The devils on a downward spin after injuries and losing to Arizona and Purdue re-establishing the team that was a title contender in the beginning of the year.
Texas A&M (-3.5) over Tenn
A&M should be able to stop the run. Erik Ainge and Brent Schaeffer look to be out so the pressure fall onto Clausen. Tenn defense will have their hands full, past three games when the Vols gave up 102 points to Vandy, Kentucky and Auburn. Aggies rank 4th nationally with a plus-14 margin. A&M's defense also allows 23.1 points and 378.8 yards. Will be a big crowd FOR the Aggies, Texas A&M took 5,500 additional tickets over its allotment of 12,000.
FSU (-9) over WVU
The Noles defense will out right handle the WVU offense! West Virginia is run-oriented, ranked No. 7 nationally, and the Seminoles lead the nation in run defense, allowing just 69 yards per game. The difference is FSU has played Miami, UVA, UNC , NC st and other good running team. WVU has strong running numbers but against some so-so defenses. Always worried about putting money on Chris Rix but after losing his starting job, I think he will come in strong and focused. Big East's 2nd ranked scoring (19.6 ppg.) and top-ranked total (328.5 ypg.) defense. Still watching WVU all season they are not that good. Looks like Henry will play for WVU. Still think the Noles have the defense to generate turnovers. Pitt and BC held WVU under 20 points IMO FSU could do better than that considering they held NC St to 10 and UVA to 3. However FSU lost to Maryland and WVU beat them. FSU has to get Booker and Washington involved to free up time for Rix.
Texas (-6.5) over Mich
Young nerves for Mich QB and RB. Solid defense from Texas.Michigan defense was slumping late in the season and Texas has the firepower to take advantage. Mich has problems with a scrambling QB (OSU Smith showed) so against Young the wolverines might get burned. Not to mention Cedric Benson. Texas rushed for 300 yards in six games this season and averages 302.4 yards per game. Texas players seem motivated and ready and they have a strong team when they come out fired up.
small plays
Louisville (-11.5) over Boise St
Iowa (+7) over LSU
miami (-3.5) over Florida
To all have a happy and safe New Years
Cheers
Irish
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New Mexico is 8th in run defense, allowing just 93.6 yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry and hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown in 5 games(Navy averages 291.4 rushing yards per game, ranked third in the nation). The Lobos also racked up 42 sacks this season (24 in their last four games). On offense the Lobos line averages about 320 pounds per man (Navy's three-man defensive front goes 250, 282 and 247 pounds the allow 145.5ypg rushing, 55th in the nation). New Mexico averages 175.8 yards per game on the ground. HOWEVER both teams have no passing game whatsoever!! NAVY lives by the run and they try to get about 300 rushing yards per game. New Mexico has only given up 200 yards 5 times in 58 games. I hate going against a team that runs the triple option as well as Navy. New Mexico has seen it once in a LOSS at Air Force, and Navy runs it better than Air Force (IMO). BUT New Mexico has won its last 5 games against some good talent while Navy won it last two against Rutgers and Army. I think both teams will depend on the run so line size will be key, the big boys up front should be able to open up holes for Moore.
No. Ill (+3) over Troy St
The huskies have played well of late and it only lost in it's last 8 games came against Toledo when No. Ill best run option was sidelined with an eye problem. Not to mention Toledo is a heck of a ball club when healthy! The Troy St run defense ranked 1st in the Sun Belt and 5th nationally by allowing only 90 yards a game. Troy led the nation with 25 interceptions and had a plus-12 turnover margin. Northern Illinois averages 35 points and 240 yards rushing a game. The Trojans ranked second in the Sun Belt at almost 170 yards rushing. NO. Ill defense has given up big plays all season. Wolfe for No. Ill has to hold on to the ball. Troy is not the best offensive team in the country but what scares me is they get so many turnover close to the redzone, they have short fields in which to score. Tonight I think No. Ill can avoid the turnover and come away with a victory.
Texas Tech (+11) over Cal
Bears allow 212.8 passing yards per game, rating 57th in Division I-A. Texas Tech averages a national-best 388.7 ypg, total offense (370.5). Cumbie's pass efficiency rating ranks 29th. The red raiders are 13th in pass defense! Honestly this game should be a shootout and Texas tech has the weapons to stay in a high scoring game. Cal has a good defense but Cumbie can move the ball on them. IMO TT has to use the pass to set up the run. Oregon had a lot of success through the air and TT should to. On defense the Raiders will give up yards but they have to play their game.
Alabama (-1.5) over Minny
The tide's defense should be enough to hold of the Gopher running attack. On offense the tide should be able to run the ball. The Gophers give up 408.7 yards a game, a figure that ranks 86th in the nation. Tide offense ranks 91st in yards gained at 332.4 per game. The gophers have lost 5 of their last 6 and if the tide can stop them a few time and get some points the gophers might quit. Pennington HAS to protect the ball. He throws a lot of picks and that is something that could hurt bama. Best option is to let Darby run all over a poor gopher defense.
Purdue (-7) over Arizona St
No Starting QB and without their top 3 RB's the sun devils might be a little deflated. Purdue started to regain some of its confidence in it's last two games a win over Ohio St and crushing Indiana. Kyle Orton, Purdue averages 324.8 passing yards per game, the 4th best in the nation. Purdue's defense allowed 16.3 ppg -- ranking 15th in the nation. The sun devils defense allowed an average of 34.5 points per game. CB Josh Golden (5-foot-9) and the rest of ASU's corners could have a very tough time against 6-1 WR Taylor Stubblefield and 6-9 Kyle Ingraham. Just two teams going in opposite directions. The devils on a downward spin after injuries and losing to Arizona and Purdue re-establishing the team that was a title contender in the beginning of the year.
Texas A&M (-3.5) over Tenn
A&M should be able to stop the run. Erik Ainge and Brent Schaeffer look to be out so the pressure fall onto Clausen. Tenn defense will have their hands full, past three games when the Vols gave up 102 points to Vandy, Kentucky and Auburn. Aggies rank 4th nationally with a plus-14 margin. A&M's defense also allows 23.1 points and 378.8 yards. Will be a big crowd FOR the Aggies, Texas A&M took 5,500 additional tickets over its allotment of 12,000.
FSU (-9) over WVU
The Noles defense will out right handle the WVU offense! West Virginia is run-oriented, ranked No. 7 nationally, and the Seminoles lead the nation in run defense, allowing just 69 yards per game. The difference is FSU has played Miami, UVA, UNC , NC st and other good running team. WVU has strong running numbers but against some so-so defenses. Always worried about putting money on Chris Rix but after losing his starting job, I think he will come in strong and focused. Big East's 2nd ranked scoring (19.6 ppg.) and top-ranked total (328.5 ypg.) defense. Still watching WVU all season they are not that good. Looks like Henry will play for WVU. Still think the Noles have the defense to generate turnovers. Pitt and BC held WVU under 20 points IMO FSU could do better than that considering they held NC St to 10 and UVA to 3. However FSU lost to Maryland and WVU beat them. FSU has to get Booker and Washington involved to free up time for Rix.
Texas (-6.5) over Mich
Young nerves for Mich QB and RB. Solid defense from Texas.Michigan defense was slumping late in the season and Texas has the firepower to take advantage. Mich has problems with a scrambling QB (OSU Smith showed) so against Young the wolverines might get burned. Not to mention Cedric Benson. Texas rushed for 300 yards in six games this season and averages 302.4 yards per game. Texas players seem motivated and ready and they have a strong team when they come out fired up.
small plays
Louisville (-11.5) over Boise St
Iowa (+7) over LSU
miami (-3.5) over Florida
To all have a happy and safe New Years
Cheers
Irish
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