Bowling Card ( Dec 18-Jan 10) may the wind always be at your back

[Irish]

6-4-1

Now that's was a second half trigger. A little scared when I hit confirm but all good. Luck if the Irish.

Small play
Navy (ML) over SDS
Who better to play in all that rain then guys that dedicate their lives to being on or near water. Run game is better for the middies and they will be stronger to stop.

SICK AS A DOG today.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

NAVY/SDS UNDER 58
Sloppy and running... time poession.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

OK
So now we know a little bit more about these two teams.

San Diego (+.5) over Navy 3rd quarter

San Diego (+.5) over Navy 2nd Half

If the aztec defense eliminates the over the top throw by Navy then they have got the middies under control. The running game has been moving for Navy but EVERYTHING is moving on SDS. They shown they can pass all night and GUT them through the middle. Hoke is a pretty good game planner and has a good defensive mind. They should make some adjustments and I think they pull away in the second. Field is holding up well and SDS has the speed advantage.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

NAVY (+4.5) 4th quarter
SDS will score but I think Navy does as well.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

9-7-1

Hawaii (-10) over Tulsa
Offense anyone?. Hawai'i has the nation's top passing offense average of 384.8 yards per game, ranking 10th in total offense (487.8) and 12th in scoring offense (38.3). Tulsa ranks fifth in total offense (503.5), ninth in scoring (39.6), 15th in rushing offense (219.3) and 16th in passing offense (284.1). This is going to be a showdown of two guys not too many folks know about, Bryant Moniz passing (354.1) and total offense (358.0) and has completed 66.2 percent of his passes with 32 touchdowns and GI Kinne has completed 60-percent of his passes for 3,307 yards and 28 TDs, while also leading the Hurricane in rushing with 557 yards and seven touchdowns. Now considering the pass happy offense of Hawaii I am a little worried because Tulsa ranks among the top-5 nationally with 19 interceptions. Now considerinf Tulsa has the ability to take the ball away I love Hawaii leads the nation in turnovers forced (36) and interceptions (23). Now Hawaii also has a decent total defense for this type of game, allows opponents just 348 yards of total offense and limits the opposition to 22.8 points. Now thats not a SHUT OUT type defense but for this high scoring type game that is a very effective defense.The teams have met eight times with the Warriors holding a 5-3 advantage. Hawaii is like 3-2 in the Hawaiian Bowl. I think both teams have a lot of talent, I mean at QB its a little advantage to Hawaii, at WR it is a smash with Salas and Johnson. Both teams can take the ball away but I think Hawaii has the edge in defense. The lines are a push as well, Tulsa has averaged 2.0 sacks allowed per game and Hawaii only allows about 3 per game. This should be an entertaining game but I do not think Tulsa is very good with ball control and they will have a few too many turnovers for their own good. I think the Hawaii defense will surprise a few people. I know they will blanket Johnson and that takes a lot of ability away for Tulsa. Now if Tulsa tries to blanket Salas then they have a lot of other weapons that can be explosive. I also like Hawaii running back Green in this game, he has come on of late and has been a nice complement to the passing attack. Hawaii is 6-1 at home this season, they have showed signs of being a very good team and they have the 24th rank in the NCAA, I think they edge Tulsa in every catagory and out play them at the same game. See in a game where it is score as much as you can, if the other team can hold that pace then its trouble but if the other team can hold that pace and has a defense that is built to just be a pest against a similar system then they are effective.

Hawaii (-6.5) over Tulsa 1st Half

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Haw/Tulsa OVER 70
Got this earlier this week. Lots of offense.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

10-9-1
Offense vs Defense in a game in which I have liked one team much more than the other all season. UT is tied for second in the country with the best turnover margin (+1.2), and is tied with Hawaii as the nation?s leader in turnovers forced (33). How did that work out for the warriors? This will be the third meeting between Toledo and Florida International. FIU won in Toledo in 2008, while the Rockets triumphed last year in Miami. So these teams have seen each other and both have the ability to win this game. I really like that Golden Panthers? first bowl game since moving to Division I-A (now FBS) in 2005. Now looking at the last game which was a Toledo win, Rockets jumped on FIU early,13-0, and led 16-14 at halftime but was shut out 21-0 in the second half. This shows even in a woodshed game the panthers were in this game till half so it was not total dominace. Now if this comes down to field position then Toledo has a bit of an advantage because they have the better return game but FIU has the speed to limit that aspect of toledos game. In this game I think Toledo will look to limit the panthers offense but the inspired panthers play well on offense and defense. This is indoor in detroit where I think the speed of FIU might be a big advantage. I think thats why it was a high scoring win for FIU in toledo because it is a faster track then the FIU home field. Of course Toledo will lean on its defense but I am not sure thats going to be enough. If it is a defensive battle then trouble for FIU backers but if these guys play the way it is expected then I see FIU outscoring even with a few turnovers. OK so I think the hotter team is going to win this game, FIU averaging 38.0 points and won four of the last five games. Carroll is a big questions he completed 61.8% 15 TDs and 13 interceptions. Now if you remember ealier I mentioned Toledo has a very good ability to take the ball away and those 13 picks scares me a bit. Still I am not sure they have to lean on Carroll because they will run and run some more. Perry and Mallary are two solid backs and I don't think the toledo defense will shut them down. On the other side of the ball Owens is the QB for Toledo he is young and I think comes in a little over amped and it hurts Toledo and give FIU the confidence to go out and out play. I like FIU to win but I'll take the small chalk as a little cushion.

Going FIU/Toledo UNDER 57... I think this game is in the 50s but not that high. I am seeing this game as a 28-21 type game.

Cheers
Irish

 

[el JB]

NC st (-2.5) over WVU
Now I fancy myself a bit of a WVU fan but looking and just the teams and no line I likes NC st. I was thinking this should be anywhere from 4 to 6. Watching WVU is painful, this past week against a terrible Rutgers team WVU managed to turn it over a ton but pull away late. If you want to teach kids how to run east and west then record WVU. They love the scat type player but the problem there is when they need the first down. The only true power back is Ryan Clark and he is not the best at holding onto the ball. NC state has been to one bowl game in the past four years and I expect this group will be hungry to play. WVU has a good QB he has a good arm but I question some of his throws and I certainly question his toughness to run when the play breaks down and get hit trying to get the first. Then again he normally runs out of bounds. WVU is in my mind led emotionally by the defense. They feed off that defense as games go on and they start to wear down a defense with ball possession on offense. But the game breaker is Russell Wilson. This guy is going to give WVU fits because of escapability. WVU has speed at LB but they rush the edge and Russell should have the middle open up for big gains all day. O'Brien is 6-2 in bowl games and I give him twice as much respect that Stewart. It's plan and simple in my eyes when you see both teams did not come from the toughest conferences but the ACC was two times what the big east was this year. The ACC alone did not look to many first year QB all had veteran offensive groups and this division has good speed. Now do you think WVU beats Miami or plays to the fourth quarter with VT? The answer is no. They played a decent game against LSU but ultimately the sched was soft. He'll Maryland gave them all they could handle at WVU before the terps started playing good football. South Florida down, UCONN down, Pitt completely underachieved, Cincy bad, Rutgers bad, in fact the two most improved big east teams were Louisville and Cuse. This game will be about who can coach better to gameplan at kickoff, who can beat that game plan and who can recover. Well game plan ore game goes to O'Brien, who can beat the game plan that's either Russell, Geno or Noel. Who can recover at half well again that's NC st. I think these teams will score and possibly at will. I am not sure if WVU will be able to run on State. I would think they crowd the box and take the edges. WVU does not have the line to power down so they use speed and misdirecting BUT a big issue is they string a ton out which should let NC st use the sideline as a big defender. I think WVU has more talent at WR but I think NC st can rattle Geno with the blitz. Like south Florida did to them. Mainly I do not think NC st will beat themselves like WVU. Turnovers and bad plays seem to be expected on WVU sideline and against good teams those are the difference. I agree WVU has a much improved defense but I think that is a result of playing a lot of bad offenses in the big east. They do not stop NC st and they hurt themselves and realize that the score is getting further and further from tied and we see the panic and the lack of disciple. Should be a fun game but I like almost every side of NC st compared to WVU. One interesting question is WVU does travel well but NC st is closer. I am wondering what is the dominate color in the stands. Bill Stewart is two and one in bowl games but a lot of that was talent on the field not coaching. Yes Bill won against Oklahoma when rod left and the team wanted to win. The following year a close win over UNC in a game where UNC had every option to win. And last year a 12 loss to FSU notice a trend? The bowls are getting further from January and the score is on the wrong side.

Good luck everyone
Cheers
Irish

FOUND THIS JEWEL FROM DEC 7...THANKS IRISH
PLEASE CHECK MY " ALL IN PARLAY " POSTED A COUPLE DAYS AGO ...INVOLVES THIS ONE AND A OVER I LOVE (MARYLAND)

 

[Irish]

11-10-1

Good luck elJB. I liked that as it came out. Stewart leaving kinda hurts me but NC is the better team.

FIU did it but I really touchy it would end 31-24 oh well.

AIr Force (-3) over Georgia tech
GT has won the last three against AF but these games were long ago. GT is 0-5 in it's last 5 bowl games. If you like option offense tune in cause you'll see GT spread option and AF triple option. They rank 1 and 2 respectively in NCAA rushing stats. So why AF, well they are the better team playing better of late and they want to be here. AF won it's last three, GT lost last four of five where points for and points against changed from scoring 30 per to 20 per game. Defense went from giving 20 to 30 per game. This is trouble because they lost safety Edwards for this game. Specking of guys out we have four plays out two starters safety Edwards and leading WR Hill they also lose a defensive-linemen for the first half. The biggest loss to me is not even known. I am pretty sure Nesbitt will go but be ineffective. He had broken his arm about seven weeks ago and hasn't played since. Now being his last go I expect him to try but that a LOT of rush for a read option QB. He also has to be concerned about contact to the arm and breaking it again. If he can't go or is pulled they go to Washington and this guy has just nit been moving the ball and the offense will struggle to keep up with air force. AF lost three of their four loses by a total of ten points including Oklahoma by 2 points in Oklahoma. Now GT has players out but an injury sidelines AF solid DE Payne. On a great side the fullback for AF is back. Tew is a solid option at FB that was playing VERY well before a broken leg. His return will really help the AF option. Tim Johnson is a very good option QB but he has been throwing the ball much better this year. He is completing about 52% but has too many picks for me. He has ten TD's and six picks on the year. Still I like his control of the offense a lot and if Nesbitt can't go that's a huge advantage. Now AF defense and GT defense practice against these offenses everyday. However AF saw it live in a win over navy in a game where AF did not give up a td and allowed 209 rushing. The system for AF helps them play gap control and get secondary players off the line to avoid getting caught by linemen. I really like that system in this game to not stop GT but slow it down Volos AF has a good secondary and if a bad passing GT offense throws it the falcons can pick it off. After all AF had five picks in last years armed forces bowl. AF base close by should have a lot of fans for the blue. Leaning over but EVERYTHING has gone over this bowl season so I'll wait on it. AF run over the yellowjackets. A bird of prey or a bumble bee .... Falcons are my play.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

I am buying into the running games and time of possession needed for these two to put points on the board.

GT/AF UNDER 57

AF(-1) over GT 1 half
Suspensions and starting the inexperienced QB for GT makes me thinkAF can get out on top of GT.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

AF (-2.5) over GT
Hit it hard because AF dominated GT but #15 can't catch. Normally thats what you need a WR to do but I am an optimist.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

14-11-1

Now I am heavy on NC st so I might be blinded by that play.

Iowa (+3) over Mizzou
Two very good players suspended for Iowa which is my first flag on this play. Second flag Mizzou has better defense than Iowa giving up 15 per game compared to 16 per game. Third mizzou has the better offense averaging over 401 yards per game. Mizzou got stronger as the season went on and the loss to Nebraska shouldn't shake them but they might be let down a bit. Iowa on the other hand coming in a little sloppy and now with the schools leading receiver and the teams leading rusher out. Any positives? Is it Stanzi over Gabbert, nope Gabbert has a 62% completion rating Stanzi is alright but not that efficient. So why Iowa, well all signs point to mizzou and it's only three points. Because Nebraska sent pressure on Gabbert and he was far less effective. I like the Iowa defensive line to get that pressure. I think Clayborn and Klugg can be a huge factor tonight. The question also is can Iowa secondary play the wide receiver bluble screen well. Eight players from last year so I like the experience in that department. So they can read and react to that play and if read those can be turned into pick six easy. I also think that the big ten is a stronger conference to block and rush against so I give the edge to Iowa in the trenches. Coker is a capable running back so I think he can pick up the running slack and McNutt on the receiving end. That's why I am on the hawkeyes, they have won the last two bowl games and I think they control the lines. I also think mizzou has a good offense but it is a lot of misdirecting and WR screens, not the hardest to figure out and Iowa has a lot of team speed on defense. Really like that Gabbert was injured and is gimpy almost every game against a tough defense, I think he get hit he gets banged up and he gets pressured. Slow him down and mizzou slows down and Stanzi and the running game can establish themselves.

NC st/WVU OVER 48.5
Think NC st can score and I am not sold on WVU defense. I expect the WVU offense to play alright because this is the offensive co job application since Stewart did not tell him he was gone and he finds out when the new guy is hired. He should be hoping to do well to pay the bills.

Cheers
Irish

 

[ezymoney]

great call on air force and under love your write ups as always:0074 :yup

 

[Irish]

NC st (+2) over WVU 2nd half
I hink NC st wins this game. So I'll either be happy or I'll lose a boatload. I think if NC st keeps the ball like the 1 st half they wear WVU down.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

NC st (+.5) over WVU 3rd quarter.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Iowa/mizzou UNDER 46.5
15 and 16 points allowed by each team will be enough fir my play. Flying high after this NC state game vein a lot of money. A LOT of money. Happy new year to all!

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

I think I am at:
18-13-1

Maryland(-7.5) over East Carolina
Game at RFK, roughly ten miles for Maryland campus. Should help ease the tension of Danny O'Brien who will be under center for Maryland. This young QB came is and has showed toughness, a strong arm and good ability to command and move the offense. Now that is the first point I'll make because it will be all about the offense tonight. See ECU gives up a lot of offense to teams. In fact ECU defense is ranked LAST in the NCAA. Let me repeat that the pirates are 120 ranked defense out 120 NCAA teams. It's not like they are play the suburbs or Oregon ducks of the world either. They gave up 76 to navy and 62 to rice. The ECU defense gives up 43 points per game, 478 yards per game and of those 220 are rushing. Those are the season numbers, the got worse as the season went on. Last five games, four of them were loses allowing an average of 55 per game. Navy, Cfla, Rice, UAB and one other. Another listed really scare you offensively? Now in comes Maryland who got stronger as the season went on. They just hammer slammed Freidgen and the offensive co is new head coach at Vandy. Talk around the terps has a lot of players hungry for this win for their coach who they feel was a little disrespected after being named coach of the year in the ACC. So the terps are motivated, they have a capable QB, a rushing game behind Williams that can get you 5.5 per rush and a WR that ECU just will not be able to cover. Home run for Maryland right? Well ECU, knows the defense stinks on ice so they help by playing good offense. This offense is lead by BC transfer Davis at QB. He has averaged 319 yards per game passing and has 37 TD's on the year. ECU can throw the ball and the terps don't exactly have lock down corners. What they do have, well they have in my opinion the most underrated linebacker in college in #33 Wujciak. This kid flies around the field, controls the defense and will be all over Davis tonight. Maryland also brings a very good safety duo into the mix. Both guys can support the run and have a good ball hawking ability. Terps have 25 takeaways on the year and 17 are picks. Maryland has not been in a bowl in two years while ECU has lost the last two bowl games. Win one for the friedge, the ECU defense can't stop anyone and the terps score easy running the ball and moving the chains. Marylands defense is fast and will be too quick for ECU to have a score for score type game. Now Davis has good numbers but when he is cold, oh boy ECU just can't move the ball. Those stretches are when Maryland starts to pull away. Davis has an injury to his non throwing shoulder so a few sacks could get him hurt and rattled, that's where #33 can make another impact in this game. Maryland plays inspired and ECU gives them all they can but they have been bad against poor teams and now they are up against a team playing well and with a purpose.

Mary/ECU UNDER 68
I think the terps control the time of possession and score on drives forcing ECU to play out of it's comfort and not be effective. I know ECU can't stop anyone Maryland is not exactly a high powered offense. I also think the total is inflated because of the defense and offensive matchup listed above. Still I like Maryland and I think ECU struggles.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

UNC (-2) over Tenn
Tenn won the last four games to get into this game in which was a nice reward for Dooley in his first year. Speaking of him on of the reasons for this play is gameplanning and who is better Davis against Dooley. Davis is 4-2 overall in bowls but this will be tough. UNC is down to almost the trainer playing defensive end. Now Elzy is out because of grades, Bruce Carter best LB injured and olineman Pelc. These are big loses to an already depleted team but UNC has battles this all season so I think the time off will let Davis play to the teams talent which is sadly Yates and his 68% completion rating. Is the grand scale this is a small play because I like UNC but tenn has much more talent starting. The only question is can the defense of UNC mix it up and take advantage of bray. I would think UNC rallies despite the issues and play because it would be a brightspot on a troubled season.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Baylor (-2) over Illinois
Well this game is huge for Brilles and Baylor. This is the bears first bowl game in more fifteen years. The bad news is Baylor backed into the post season game losing their last three games. So they get the fighting illini. Coming off a two bowl drought since the rose bowl beating. This year Illinois played above what folks expected partly due to the emergence of Scheelhaase. This freshman QB came on to run and pass the offense to the tube of 32 points per game. This is a problem because Baylor has given up forty plus over it's last six games. Illinois defense also played well allowing 24 points per game BUT they did allow Michigan to score 67 and over six hundred yards of offense to the back up QB. Baylor comes in averaging 33 points per game and are 12 in total yards with 478 per game. If Pryor from Ohio state can rush for over a hundred yards how do you think Griffin will do? Griffin is passing at a 66% completion average plus he can run. I think this will be a problem for Illinois. I think the Baylor offense has just too much speed. They are very fast at WR and Finley has stepped up to be a solid running back. This game is closer to Baylor so it should have more bear fans in the seats. After all it has been sixteen years so a three hundred mile trip should be worth it for him. Baylor has a very high powered offense that in my opinion is much more difficult then any offense Illinois have seen. Saying that I can't put the stock into mizzou early because it was so early. Michigan could have done anything and everything on offense. Now Illinois has played well but I do not think they can keep up on offense. See Baylor can run it the can throw it and the QB can keep it. That's too much for an average defense to handle. On the other hand if you bottle up the freshman QB then Illinois is in trouble. I can see the bears scoring the Illini pressing and not being able to keep pace and Baylor pulls ahead. Once Baylor gets ahead that puts Illinois down and out because they are not built to air it out. So let's say it's all offense, in that gun fight Baylor has the better gun. If it's a running game I think Baylor has the more speed. I don't see this as a defensive game at all. Baylor is the stronger offense, veteran QB with all the inspiration to get the win. Hang it on Griffin and let him do what he is good at, average over three hundered yard of offense. Brilles and Baylor enjoy this after the sixteen years from it.

Cheers
Irish

 

[Irish]

Mary (-3.5) over ECU
Well I am pretty sure fridge will have an emotional halftime speech for his guys. Not sure how ECU can handle the speed of the rush. Terps running game came on. Confidence down for Davis and I think the losing four of the last five with all the mistakes in the first half will lead to players with there head down. Terps come out with re-energized fire.

Cheers
Irish