Bowling for Dollar$$$

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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,464
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 53-43 (+5.35*)
Last Year's Bowls: 10-8 (-0.60*)

(A) It's Christmas in Berkeley for me, and that means too much to do before I go and lots to do when I get there. With so much good football in the pipeline, I suspect I'll make time enough for capping, and it's not hard to post my plays, but contributing any analysis or nuggets of information will probably be a rarity.

(B) Just to mess around and see what it gets me, I'm going to make small $20 money line wagers on every dog for a while, even if I have posted a play on the favorite.

(C) For starters:

- (1) N. Texas vs. Memphis = PASS

- (2) Miami Ohio (-13') over Louisville (1*)

- (3.a) N.Texas(+150)($20)
- (3.b) Louisville(+450)($20)

(D) Merry Christmas to All!!!!
http://www.jacquielawson.com/viewcard.asp?code=0261391009

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,464
215
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Christmas vacation with the family has been great, but it never lets up, and capping the games or watching even a quarter just ain't gonna happen. Just 20 minutes a day scanning Jacks, looking at lines and maybe reading some NFL headlines has been hard to come by so far. Will update my run of $20 ML dog losers later, and only one play for now worth posting on feel and guts alone.

Bowling Green(-6') over Northwestern (1*)

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
7,464
215
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Back from vacation . . .will update record later on those $20 money line dogs that have been stalled in neutral . . . liking Wednesday's card from when the matchups were announced, but haven't looked at those games close enough yet to say that's still the case . . . Liking best for today:

TEASE Texas Tech(-5') w/ Texas(-3') (1*)
I give the emotional edges to the embattled Tech defense and a less hobbled B.J. Symons, playing close to home off of a tougher schedule, and along with some suspect preparation by Navy, I'm expecting more than enough to propel them through the first quarter that Navy likes to dominate, and on to a solid win . . . Washington State has more the look of a live dog, but I'll side with the spark coming from the emergence of QB Vince Young.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,464
215
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
In the midst of my second slump of the season, going 0-3 with my last 3 Bowl plays and 5-8 the last two weeks in the NFL. I think this weekend in the NFL offers better opportunities for turning it back around, but you never know.

Wisconsin(+3') (1*)
I've backed Alvarez in prior bowl games, and I've faded Auburn in similar spots most of this season, and I just can't see the angle for deviating today.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,464
215
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
My first posted halftime play in 3 years at Madjacks, and it's a winner. In the midst of a slump. That was pressure. :weed:

TEASE Missouri(+9') w/ Ov47' (1*)
My initial expectations were that Nutt and Arkansas would deliver after a lengthy drought. After capping the game, I'm looking for both teams to let it all hang out in a game decided late.

Boston College(-1) (1*)

HAPPY NEW YEAR 2004!
:toast: :weed:

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,464
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Bowl Record YTD: 4-5 (-1.50*)
Not what I was hoping for, but I clung to respectability through the distractions of a vacation, so it's not all bad.

There are two games that stand out for me today, Rose Bowl and Orange Bowl. One of the critical issues to decide is how to play the other three games. I think Iowa(+3'), West Virginia(+4') and Purdue(+3') all have more than a couple of attributes I look for in a live dog. I considered playing them all, or a small parlay, but I hope I'm making the best decision by going with just the game I feel strongest about.

West Virginia(+4') (1*)
http://wvgazette.com/section/Sports/2003123126


GO HAWKS!

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
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Oct 10, 2001
7,464
215
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
A few observations before moving on . . .
I REALLY wanted to win just one unit before the late games. Why I went with a young team surprised to be playing on New Year's Day, while foresaking the team I knew was on top of their agenda of unfinished business, rates as the dumbest move I've made all season in college football . . . I've heard it said here (and then watched it come true) that there are few better plays than going against a widely popular underdog . . . Speed never has an off day, but it can be used against a team and fades when you get worn down, while coaching kills . . . I thought Iowa's first touchdown was their best play call of the year until I saw Chandler's naked bootleg to the left for their second touchdown . . . Kicker Nate Kaeding is the best player at his position in college football, but I already knew that . . . The stock of Kirk Ferentz is soaring, but there is nothing he could achieve that would be any sweeter than winning a national championship for the the good people and the good fans of Iowa . . . IT'S GREAT TO BE A HAWKEYE!!!!
---------- ---------- ---------- ----------


USC(-6 & -6') (1.5*)

Going in I saw at least four teams that would greatly disappoint if they did not win and cover in their Bowl games:
- (1) USC
- (2) Miami Ohio
- (3) Arkansas (What was I thinking?)
- (4) Florida State (even in a rainstorm)

If I have my facts right, USC has 41 takeaways and 46 sacks in 12 games this season, while averaging 43 points per conference game against the poor athletes and poor coaches in the Pac 10. These guys play with a frenzy and purpose that Michigan hasn't experienced . . . Michigan was abused on the West Coast, pushed around in their "statement game" against Iowa, display ineptitude on special teams, needed a collapse to get the job done against Minnesota, and played their Super Bowl in November . . .Michigan's zone coverages are not that solid, and Lloyd Carr's Big Ten playbook is not likely to provide the answers he'll need in this one . . . Michigan played their last game on November 22, while USC played on December 6 . . . Going on two seasons now, when USC has better motivation or a good spot, it?s been a one way street - BIG. Men of Troy: I?m with you again.

GL
 
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lostinamerica

Registered User
Forum Member
Oct 10, 2001
7,464
215
63
Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)

NCAA Bowls: 5-7 (-2.42*)

I wasn't expecting superb results from a less than focused effort during the Bowl season, and the same caveat applies for tonight's game.

I still need to tally the $20 moneyline dog plays - I played them all EXCEPT Michigan (I gave them no chance). Oops, I think John Navarre was just sacked again.

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *


SUGAR BOWL:

Just some quick impressions before I pull the trigger:

Line Value: Distorted by the Kansas State game, I'm sure.

Situational: Oklahoma has a lot to answer for after being humiliated, including a consensus that they don't even deserve to be participating in this game. That's about as solid a pair of angles as you could script. LSU is playing for a national title in their backyard, and it's a given to me that they will be right on task this year after being run over by Texas last year at the Cotton Bowl. This could get interesting.

Matchups: Surprisingly, I've had a lot more opportunities to see LSU than Oklahoma, both this year and last. While lacking the ability to create the matchup problems caused by Ell Roberson, I have no doubt this LSU team has more NFL level talent, all conference level talent, and more depth than Kansas State even dreams about. And the digging I did on this team after they lost to Florida convinced me they needed that game to understand what was required to accomplish what they have this season, and I continue to hear the players repeating the things that came out of that loss, which I very much like hearing. As for Oklahoma, they may or may not be exposed as a one dimensional offense against an elite defense. And I can't give Stoops and his staff a big edge over Saban.

Build-up and Run-up and angles to be dug up: I haven't kept up with it, which is the disadvantage I've been failing to overcome throughout this bowl season.

Impressions: This is a matchup of defenses on task that will disappoint me greatly if they don't control the tempo in this one. I think Oklahoma has too much to prove to be denied, but I'll take the points with a live dog, and although I'm beginning to believe I'm hopeless at totals, I've got to join the consensus that seems to have formed that Under the total of 49 is one of the the best plays on the board.

Fade Away:

LSU(+6') (1*)
LSU/Okl(Un49) (1*)

GL
 
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