Bowling for Dollars - Part I

lostinamerica

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NCAA Regular Season YTD: 43-39 (+0.26*)

NFL Regular Season YTD: 17-31 (-16.10*)




Summary of Bowl Plays:

5-3 (+1.70*)

12/19/06: TCU(-12) over Northern Illinois (1*) W (37-7)
12/21/06: BYU(-3)(-105) over Oregon (1*) W (38-8)
12/23/06: South Florida(-4') over East Carolina (1*) W (24-7)
12/23/06: San Jose State(+3) over New Mexico (1*) W (20-12)
12/27/06: UCLA(-3) over Florida State (1*) L 27-44
12/28/06: Tease Rutgers(-1') over Kansas State with Texas A&M(+9') over California (1*) L (37-10 and 10-45)
12/29/06: Kentucky(+10) over Clemson (1*) W (28-20)
12/29/06: Texas Tech(-8) over Minnesota (1*) L (44-41-OT)
12/30/06: Texas(-9) over Iowa (1*)


GL

******************************
Don't believe everything you think.
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2005 NCAA Regular Season: 44-40 (-0.33*)
2005-2006 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-8 (-1.20*)

2004 NCAA Regular Season: 55-49 (+3.58*)
2004-2005 NCAA Bowl Season: 5-8 (-4.96*)

2003 NCAA Regular Season: 53-43 (+5.35*)
2003-2004 NCAA Bowl Season: 7-7 (-0.42*)


2005 NFL Regular Season: 40-29 (+7.40*)
2005-2006 NFL Post Season: 6-3 (+3.17*)
2005 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00)

2004 NFL Regular Season: 46-46 (-0.95*)
2004-2005 NFL Postseason: 7-3 (+5.72*)
2004 NFLX: 1-0 (+1.00*)

2003 NFL Regular Season: 49-51 (-4.94*)
2003-2004 NFL Post Season: 7-4 (+3.09*)
2003 NFLX: 0-0 (+0.00*)
 
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lostinamerica

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TCU(-12) over Northern Illinois (1*)
- - The TCU program really excels at doing the little things well, and making smart corrections as needed. The MAC had been a rich vein for capping in recent years before regressing to a convoluted mediocrity this season, and the Northern Illinois campaign was par for that course . . . The matchups of strengths (run vs. run defense) and weaknesses (passing and balance from the spread vs. pass defense) appear to strongly favor TCU, which also has a big edge in team speed and possesses a talented core of veterans that have won the football money by stepping up in big spots . . . This trip to San Diego offers a showcase on the national stage for TCU when compared to the saturation of national coverage received by MAC programs in recent seasons . . . Finally, for a hint inside the mindset of TCU preparations for this game, when asked about the condition of the field (the San Diego Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs played at Qualcomm Sunday night, less than 12 hours after rains drenched the San Diego area, and the Frogs weren't allowed on the surface during their walk-through), HC Gary Patterson replied, "As long as we get to play on the same field [as Northern Illinois], we don't care."

GL
 

lostinamerica

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BYU(-3)(-105) over Oregon (1*)
- - It's a fact that most of my handicapping - and fateful trigger pulling - is done in the 24 hours before the contest. TCU vs. NIU was one of 3 or 4 games that jumped off the page when the Bowl matchups were announced, and it was very much on my mind as a play for weeks, but once again, I didn't really lift a finger doing any research until the afternoon of the game, and when I was called away for something that needed my attention, I barely managed to pull together and post a write-up before kickoff. Entirely normal . . . This game in Vegas wasn't even in my consciousness until after the TCU game, and in the final analysis, while deciding whether to pull the trigger and make a play and a post on this game, I asked a few questions . . . (1) Am I on a roll and feeling lucky? Well are you, punk? Ahhh, no. :scared (2) Looking at the matchup, there is the fairly singular note and tone of Oregon's fade, contrasted with BYU on a tear and then sustaining through crunch time; there are the coaching connections; there is a BYU offense with beautiful capabilities against any opponent to scheme and attack across the board with the 11 men they put on the field, led by a stud at the trigger that values the football; there is the fact that an Oregon win over the Mormons means . . . nothing, really; and the media coverage I've studied is entirely consistent with expectations, so that IF, IF, IF I have to cap a side as performing tonight like they are playing out the string, that choice would NOT be BYU; so I think the line value in taking the favorite in this Bowl game is not the issue, and regardless of the outcome, "Vegas" hasn't sprung a brilliant trap on me or anyone else . . . (3) So it comes down to this: I remember very well the excellent and highly entertaining Bowl game against Cal last year, and how well prepared and resilient BYU was in that game, but that the better team (I pushed with Cal(-7), but I posted a VERY RARE for me halftime play on BYU(+3), which won, and stated in that post, "An offer I couldn't refuse . . . Plenty of poise and heart on both sides to expect more of the same.") wanted it just as much off a prior year humiliation and as a launching pad for the next season . . . I think that same BYU program badly wants this one (in Vegas again, but that's not what I mean, though I'd say that helps), knows how to go about getting it, and will not take no for an answer.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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3 games to choose from for today. By most accounts of my head/heart/first impression/first principles, etc., it's San Jose State (defense, coaching legend, real motivation to take it to any of the 50 states or any of the 49 weedeater bowls), South Florida (blanked 14-0 last December 31; both teams have been fairly reliable for me to gauge over 1+ year stretches), and avoid it (or Tulsa??) . . . Upon research and analysis, such as I call it, the choices are:


San Jose State(+3) over New Mexico (1*)
- - A live dog, I'd say . . . "When SJSU players talk about this season's turnaround, many point to Chris Holder, the first-year director of strength and conditioning. Holder was hired last summer after four years at Cal Poly-San Luis Obispo . . . 'People don't realize it a lot, but when guys are working out they feel themselves getting bigger and stronger and faster,'' quarterback Adam Tafralis said. '`They just go, `Now I'm ready to play against whoever steps on my field.' It's mental just as much as it is physical.''' ~ (San Jose Mercury News 12.22.06)
http://www.abqtrib.com/news/2006/dec/22/lobozone-pressures-winning/


South Florida(-4') over East Carolina (1*)

- - Taking them over the dog is my side.
http://www.tbo.com/sports/bulls/MGB6E9DI1WE.html
http://www.reflector.com/sports/content/sports/ecu/stories/2006/12/23_ecu_main_story.html


And FWIW: Stats:
http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/2006/Internet/ranking_summary/DIVISION1.HTML


GL
 
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lostinamerica

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UCLA(-3) over Florida State (1*)

- - The FSU season has been a slog, and a downward slog at that, with no leadership or chemistry ever emerging to right a ship that didn't just start listing this year. Now I have to ask whether, amidst the obvious circumstances, FSU is pushing just the right buttons and reinventing their Bowl routines through the holidays and a cross country sojurn, and will be both jacked up over a rich opportunity presented by this game, and opportunistic through 60 minutes of good and bad while closing the deal with the little things that have eluded them all season . . . Sure, the Seminoles don't want the final sting of a losing season, but my reading and listening isn't picking up any collective sense of what a hugely important game and trip this is for the Seminoles, for which I'll offer several examples from the media: (1) "This is the first time since I've been here that I haven't been home for Christmas," said Florida State senior tailback Lorenzo Booker (the only California native on the Seminoles squad) "It's an adjustment, but at the same time you have to appreciate the fact that it is an adjustment. We're used to playing on the first, second and third (of January). Now that we're playing on the 27th, is it a letdown? Sort of, but it's UCLA."; (2) Win or lose in the Emerald Bowl, Bobby Bowden won't change his sights on better things for his Florida State football team. A loss would give FSU its first losing season since his first year at FSU in 1976. Just look at Michigan, Bowden said. The Wolverines went 7-5 a year ago and this season they were barely out of the national championship game. ?I talked to (Michigan coach Lloyd) Carr earlier in the year to find out exactly what he did - about a month ago,? Bowden said. ?I just wanted to know how he went about what he did. He made changes in his staff. I asked him how quickly he went about hiring and all that stuff.? Bowden said he likes his team's approach to the bowl and takes that as a good sign heading into the offseason. ?The kids have worked hard," he said. "You would think they are down, they have lost. They have really done everything we've (asked). Look at this trip here. I nearly hate to say but we haven't had any trouble. Auburn sent a couple home. Joe (Paterno of Penn State) had to suspend a guy. That's my big motivation - trying to get this thing back,? Bowden said. ?Even if you lose the game - OK, 31 years ago we were 5-6 and then the next year went 10-2.?; and (3) Hasn't he (Bowden) earned the right to have a 6-6 season? ``I think so,'' Bowden said. ``But you know people.'' This is the season Bowden accepted the resignation of son Jeff as the team's offensive coordinator, after a shutout home loss to Wake Forest. There you have it, Seminoles fans -- your requisite pound of flesh. He jokes about the Emerald Bowl being his Waterloo, but Bowden is promising a return from exile. Bowden, who still rises at 4 a.m. for work, has insulated himself from much of the noise. Not knowing how to turn on a computer helps. Yet, he can feel the negativity. ``I'd call it nasty,'' Bowden said of some of what he hears, ``but you know what? It doesn't surprise me."

- - On the other side, few expected much from UCLA despite a 10-2 season in 2005. ("The challenge for us is, can we continue to improve given the loss of some talent on offense?" Dorrell said (in August). That's what good college coaches do, and what Dorrell is certain UCLA is ready to demonstrate. Supporters believe last year's team could never have mounted those (4th quarter) comebacks (in 2005) if the team's character under Dorrell was not exemplary. As the Bruins have matured, so has a head coach who has learned lessons and developed. "I've grown," Dorrell said. "I've matured." Dorrell said he has improved as a communicator to his players, though he often struggles to communicate his message to the media. He can appear defensive, and in extreme moments, almost the victim. Last year before the Sun Bowl, Dorrell - who is black - questioned whether the lack of respect was due to race.) . . . But there were very early signs that the defense would become a force as the season went on. There were growing pains, and a hugely disappointing loss to Notre Dame, but down the stretch they have come together under first-year defensive coordinator DeWayne Walker, culminating against USC with a sensational blitz-oriented package to pressure quarterback John David Booty, and allow UCLA's undersized defensive front to use its quickness to shut down USC's running game. Recent games and recent seasons should also answer the question of whether UCLA is gaining traction with talent, depth and speed and the ability to deploy them to create favorable matchups. Now the question to be asked is whether they are fat from their success (or if it's downright west coast dubious), or whether they like what they have tasted and are of one mind and heart to see their run to a worthy conclusion.

- - In terms of matchups, I'll concede that FSU has the potential to burn UCLA with their most productive means of attack, namely, chucking it up for their big receivers to make plays, but it's also not a strength for structuring winning wagers in bowl games. FSU at its best is a dangerous dog and is no doubt playing up the disrespect card like bad asses always tend to. Fact is, there is another side to virtually every angle, but when I ask whether the momentum of these two divergent seasons is likely to continue, or does value lie in anticipating that the two teams standing on the same sideline in this quirky (but sold out) football stadium will look like they changed shirts from a month ago, I come down in favor of Dorrell's Bruins resembling their true selves and not leaving the field without finding a way to get the job done.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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TEASE Rutgers(-1') over Kansas State with Texas A&M(+9') over California (1*)

- - My consistently best angle for Bowl plays involves solid teams off a disappointing Bowl outcome in the prior year - the gut wrenching or humiliating variety doesn't much matter (it's the pervasiveness of the emptiness that matters most) - facing an opponent with no such collective experience. Once that parameter exists, my research and analysis has to uncover some relatively one-sided mitigating factors to convince me to shy away from a play . . . With their third bowl game in 137 years, I have no doubt the lunchpail brigade from Rutgers and the first recruiting class of Coach Schiano is imbued with a feeling of unfinished business, and the direction and sacrifice to this point will still define their final legacy for the Rutgers nation; the Scarlet Knights gave a storybook quality effort at Morgantown to seize the conference championship and earn a BCS bowl berth, and I'd back this Rutgers squad in an even fight to close their 2006 season with a defining effort, even if it required going to Manhattan, Kansas to get it done . . . http://www.nj.com/rutgersfootball/ . . . Kansas State also took on quite an identity during the season under a favorite son head coach, with a nucleus of previously underachieving veterans and a mix of brash newcomers, and their is every reason to expect they will be jacked up by the personality of their coach, and show no fear in attacking from the outset to slit the throats of the boys from Jersey . . . While there are explosive opportunities for KSU in the return game, Rutgers has a depleted receiving corps, and QB Teel has been more dynamic as a leader than as a gifted playmaker, it's Rutgers IMO that is vastly underappreciated for their ability to game plan and matchup with any opponent's style and accomplish wins; if this game is dominated by one team or the other, I have no doubt it will be Rutgers that is flexing its muscle. While I expect the game will be a spirited contest in most respects, and that has me hedging my play on the pointspread, there is no way I look for KSU to stand taller as the team on a mission . . .

- - When it comes to pairing the Rutgers play in a Teaser, I kicked around the idea of Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas Tech, etc., but since I haven't properly looked at those games yet, I fell back on tonight's other contest, in which it would not surprise me at all if the dog prevails . . . California was flying high into November before closing a disappointing campaign that had knocked them completely off their swagger by the time they outlasted Stanford. QB Nate Longshore has looked very uncomfortable and IMO regressed down the stretch when under duress in the pocket, and A&M has the personnel in the trenches and the complements at the skill positions to make Cal very uncomfortable. Other than wins, and ATS covers, and turnover ratio, there is no stat I feel best reflects a quality team than 3rd down conversions and red zone proficiencies (on offense and defense), and again A&M is good to go in that regard, and has been road tested and resilient far beyond expectations; I don't see A&M being victimized by a Tedford shellacking in this one.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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It's bad enough that the lack of conviction that has gnawed at me all season had me fudge on my initial plays for last night, but I am absolutely distressed over that same crippling disease holding me back from not just playing, but hammering, two halftime lines in those same games that to me just jumped off the page ($20 and $0 were the ballsy decisions I made). OMG, those 2nd halves were painful to watch.

Kentucky(+10) over Clemson (1*)
- - Kentucky's will in this assignment to stop the opponent's rushing attack has to be greater than Clemson's will in this assignment to impose it's will and sap the will from it's opponent, doesn't it? If that manifests itself, the etc. and etc. of this live dog is where I see the value.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Texas Tech(-8) over Minnesota (1*)
- - IMO Minnesota is not a very very good team that spent a good bit of capital on a stretch run that landed them in arguably their most prized bowl destination in decades(?) (or thereabouts), a real achievement that has, I think, taken them to the outer limit of their potential (time here for Mason's lads to play the disrespect card). Now in a matchup likely to expose any shortcomings that are not just imagined, the offense loses the safety net of their All-American tight end and absorbs the sudden loss of an anchor at offensive tackle . . . Then again, I'm not sure Mike Leach's Red Raiders are any great prize, having landed in a beauty of a bowl game without much distinction in the journey taken. But with a chance to avoid a hollow ending to a second consecutive season, I'll risk a play on the team that possesses advantages and should have no shortage of collective motivation; KOD on my play, perhaps, but I can't deny that I would prefer it if Minnesota was going toe to toe with the likes of TCU or even Missouri, believe it or not.

GL
 

lostinamerica

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Texas(-9) over Iowa (1*)
- - I'm no fan of Mack Brown - how could you be - but I just don't see Texas sleepwalking through this assignment. If Texas finishes plays and Colt McCoy isn't severely hindered, Drew Tate is not about to stand tall and uncork a flurry of confident and nasty Iowa playmakers.

Iowa:
http://www.hawkcentral.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061222/HAWKS0104/612220313/1058/HAWKS0104
http://www.hawkcentral.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061230/HAWKS0104/612300317/1058
http://www.hawkcentral.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20061230/HAWKS0104/612300315/1058

Texas:
http://www.statesman.com/sports/content/sports/stories/longhorns/12/29/29texfoot.html

GL
 
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