grabbed this line from pinnacle for the tuesday nighter:
2 units.....bowling green (+7) (+100) over miami
for one game, i have no shame in siding with the squares. not at all surprised that miami is favored by a chunk of points, but am very surprised this line hit 7 (and bgsu is at a juice-free 7 at pinnacle no less). im not going to make this game more complicated than it is, nor am i going to try and out-think myself. miami is a very solid football team and capable of scoring a lot of points (total of 64 clearly reflects both teams scoring potential) but everything ive read from the bgsu side of things allows me to back the falcons and confident that theyve set the northern illinois game aside and are ready to take on a potent miami team.
quick overview of how these teams got to where they are, and where they excel:
miami.....roethlisberger is as good as they come, and has they ability to become every bit as good a pro quarterback as byron leftwich. clearly, this kid is a stud. in miami's lone national tv appearance this year against iowa, he was pretty brutal and people started jumping off his bandwagon after game 1. but he's settled in nicely this year and is leading the attack for the 7th best scoring offense in the nation (40.1 ppg). miami's attack is simple. let roethlisberger throw it around the field and mix in some handoffs to murray and smith to keep the defenses honest. the only thing worth noting is that miami has had a tendency to let teams hang around longer than they should at times. they let cincy in the backdoor a month ago, they basically took a "we'll trade you score for score" mentality with akron a few weeks ago, and then traded touchdowns with kent state last weekend. miami's offense is as good as they come. their defense is where they are a little vulnerable. the miami defensive scoring average is helped out with back-to-back games in which they allowed 3 points each game vs mac mutants buffalo and ball state, but by and large- their offense is vastly superior to the defense. when that offense is in rhythm, its impossible to stop. miami is a very very good team that could easily be in the top 25. in mac play so far this year, theyve outscored their opponents 233- 93. THATS WHERE I THINK A LOT OF THE LINE ORIGINATES FROM. miami has been ripping teams apart in conference play. only thing is, miami has had the luxury of an easier mac schedule to this point. although im very well aware that miami is every bit as good as their record. yeah their schedule has been easy, but theyre good regardless.
bowling green.....even though its easy to say "bgsu is the more public team since theyre ranked", the fact remains that miami still has more name recognition than bowling green and for the most part, america is more familiar with miami over the last few years than they are with bowling green. unfortunately, a lot of squares are jumping on the falcon bandwagon after their destruction of northern illinois a week and a half ago. oh well, i gotta live with it for one week. hellahs done a good job of introducing mac personnel and background to a lot of these teams. and then espn finished it off by giving the falcons their exposure vs niu. for those that live in a cave, however, falcons rely on the spread offense and run it very effectively. harris lines up in the shotgun almost every snap of the game (even on 4th goal from the 1, ive seen him not line up under center). falcons have good wide receivers. a couple guys that can stretch the field (sharon is solid) and (even though i hate to use this term, since it does him an injustice) theyve got an outstanding possession receiver in cole magner. falcons dont run a lot of deep routes. its not like theyre throwing the ball way down the field. what makes them so tough to stop is that harris rolls out both ways (left and right) very well and the receivers run a lot of short crosses and stop routes. they run the quick hitter to the tight end very well. its not a fun and gun offense so much as it is just a methodical passing attack that is tough to stop. as far as weaknesses, bowling green has had trouble when teams keep harris in check (not easy to do, but when they force bgsu to run the ball, they are a little more pedestrian). on the defensive side of the ball, bgsu is a little weak up front vs the run. they kept micheal turner in check for the most part but thats because - as i expected - they loaded the box and made haldi beat them. he couldnt do it. bgsu's strength is in their secondary, which has been solid this season. to me, you beat bowling green on the ground, not through the air.
as far as specific reasons why i like bowling green:
*line value.....i expected this line to be at miami (-3.5) or (miami -4). at the full touchdown, the falcons are too dangerous a team not to grab that number.
*as refenced above, you beat bgsu on the ground. thats where theyre weakest. dont get me wrong, roethlisberger will get his yards. hes too good not to. but bgsu's secondary is very athletic. if youre looking for a stud cornerback - keep an eye on janssen patton. 3 interceptions in the northern illinois game and 7 total on the year. you can be sure roethlisberger will be aware of where patton is on the field
*this is what put me over the edge on bgsu. the main thing i was worried about was them being flat and still be coming down from the northern illinois win. if this game was last saturday- theyd be in a spot for a letdown. but theyve had ten days to put this game behind them, and everything ive read has me convinced they wont allow a letdown (especially given the fact that miami is not an opponent you "let down" for anyways)
keep in mind, bowling green was in this exact spot last year (ranked late in the season and then stumbled). it appears that the poor november they had last year is still fresh in their minds and that they want to atone for that.
===========================
BGSU Player Quotes
Quarterback Josh Harris
On coming down from the high of beating #12 NIU:
"This team is very focused and ready to go. This coaching staff, the seniors and leaders on this team won't allow a letdown."
On playing on a Tuesday night:
"I don't know if it effects you. You actually get to get a couple of extra days of preparation."
On not allowing a late-season letdown:
"This will be the first game in November and last year it was this time of year where we had a letdown."
BGSU Cornerback Janssen Patton
On remaining undefeated in the MAC:
"We had a great win on Saturday and with Ball State knocking off Toledo, we control our own destiny."
On the Falcons having a bull's-eye on their back:
"That means we're doing something good. I like it."
On maintaining winning ways late in the season:
"That's been our focus. It's not how you start, it's how you finish. Last year we were in the same position and we didn't finish the job."
On going against Ben Roethlisberger and Miami's passing attack:
"With a passing team we know the game can be won or lost in the secondary."
===========================
* for as huge as this game is for miami, its also worth noting that theyve got marshall on deck next wednesday night at home on espn again. for those that remember, that is definitely a big revenger for miami given the way that game ended last season (with marshall winning in the last seconds on some suspect calls). so the "focus dynamic" involves both bgsu and miami, not just bowling green.
i guess im just convinced that bowling green really wants to atone for last years collapse when they were ranked and then had a bad november. theyre just too live a dog to not grab here.
so slap me with the "square stick" for one night. let me be joe public. im not going to "out-think" myself. yes the line is begging for bowling green money. lots of guys will look at the ranking and grab bgsu for their weekly 20 dollar bet for action. i guess im just confident that ive capped this conference long enough to feel like ive got the right side, even if it is a square side. if bowling green goes down by more than a touchdown, then that means i lose a couple hundred bucks knowing that harris and patton and the rest of the bgsu seniors allowed a november letdown to ruin their season two years in a row. i'll be lighter in the wallet, but it will hurt those guys more than it will me.
i honestly believe this game goes down to the final possession.
2 units......bowling green (+7) at even money
2 units.....bowling green (+7) (+100) over miami
for one game, i have no shame in siding with the squares. not at all surprised that miami is favored by a chunk of points, but am very surprised this line hit 7 (and bgsu is at a juice-free 7 at pinnacle no less). im not going to make this game more complicated than it is, nor am i going to try and out-think myself. miami is a very solid football team and capable of scoring a lot of points (total of 64 clearly reflects both teams scoring potential) but everything ive read from the bgsu side of things allows me to back the falcons and confident that theyve set the northern illinois game aside and are ready to take on a potent miami team.
quick overview of how these teams got to where they are, and where they excel:
miami.....roethlisberger is as good as they come, and has they ability to become every bit as good a pro quarterback as byron leftwich. clearly, this kid is a stud. in miami's lone national tv appearance this year against iowa, he was pretty brutal and people started jumping off his bandwagon after game 1. but he's settled in nicely this year and is leading the attack for the 7th best scoring offense in the nation (40.1 ppg). miami's attack is simple. let roethlisberger throw it around the field and mix in some handoffs to murray and smith to keep the defenses honest. the only thing worth noting is that miami has had a tendency to let teams hang around longer than they should at times. they let cincy in the backdoor a month ago, they basically took a "we'll trade you score for score" mentality with akron a few weeks ago, and then traded touchdowns with kent state last weekend. miami's offense is as good as they come. their defense is where they are a little vulnerable. the miami defensive scoring average is helped out with back-to-back games in which they allowed 3 points each game vs mac mutants buffalo and ball state, but by and large- their offense is vastly superior to the defense. when that offense is in rhythm, its impossible to stop. miami is a very very good team that could easily be in the top 25. in mac play so far this year, theyve outscored their opponents 233- 93. THATS WHERE I THINK A LOT OF THE LINE ORIGINATES FROM. miami has been ripping teams apart in conference play. only thing is, miami has had the luxury of an easier mac schedule to this point. although im very well aware that miami is every bit as good as their record. yeah their schedule has been easy, but theyre good regardless.
bowling green.....even though its easy to say "bgsu is the more public team since theyre ranked", the fact remains that miami still has more name recognition than bowling green and for the most part, america is more familiar with miami over the last few years than they are with bowling green. unfortunately, a lot of squares are jumping on the falcon bandwagon after their destruction of northern illinois a week and a half ago. oh well, i gotta live with it for one week. hellahs done a good job of introducing mac personnel and background to a lot of these teams. and then espn finished it off by giving the falcons their exposure vs niu. for those that live in a cave, however, falcons rely on the spread offense and run it very effectively. harris lines up in the shotgun almost every snap of the game (even on 4th goal from the 1, ive seen him not line up under center). falcons have good wide receivers. a couple guys that can stretch the field (sharon is solid) and (even though i hate to use this term, since it does him an injustice) theyve got an outstanding possession receiver in cole magner. falcons dont run a lot of deep routes. its not like theyre throwing the ball way down the field. what makes them so tough to stop is that harris rolls out both ways (left and right) very well and the receivers run a lot of short crosses and stop routes. they run the quick hitter to the tight end very well. its not a fun and gun offense so much as it is just a methodical passing attack that is tough to stop. as far as weaknesses, bowling green has had trouble when teams keep harris in check (not easy to do, but when they force bgsu to run the ball, they are a little more pedestrian). on the defensive side of the ball, bgsu is a little weak up front vs the run. they kept micheal turner in check for the most part but thats because - as i expected - they loaded the box and made haldi beat them. he couldnt do it. bgsu's strength is in their secondary, which has been solid this season. to me, you beat bowling green on the ground, not through the air.
as far as specific reasons why i like bowling green:
*line value.....i expected this line to be at miami (-3.5) or (miami -4). at the full touchdown, the falcons are too dangerous a team not to grab that number.
*as refenced above, you beat bgsu on the ground. thats where theyre weakest. dont get me wrong, roethlisberger will get his yards. hes too good not to. but bgsu's secondary is very athletic. if youre looking for a stud cornerback - keep an eye on janssen patton. 3 interceptions in the northern illinois game and 7 total on the year. you can be sure roethlisberger will be aware of where patton is on the field
*this is what put me over the edge on bgsu. the main thing i was worried about was them being flat and still be coming down from the northern illinois win. if this game was last saturday- theyd be in a spot for a letdown. but theyve had ten days to put this game behind them, and everything ive read has me convinced they wont allow a letdown (especially given the fact that miami is not an opponent you "let down" for anyways)
keep in mind, bowling green was in this exact spot last year (ranked late in the season and then stumbled). it appears that the poor november they had last year is still fresh in their minds and that they want to atone for that.
===========================
BGSU Player Quotes
Quarterback Josh Harris
On coming down from the high of beating #12 NIU:
"This team is very focused and ready to go. This coaching staff, the seniors and leaders on this team won't allow a letdown."
On playing on a Tuesday night:
"I don't know if it effects you. You actually get to get a couple of extra days of preparation."
On not allowing a late-season letdown:
"This will be the first game in November and last year it was this time of year where we had a letdown."
BGSU Cornerback Janssen Patton
On remaining undefeated in the MAC:
"We had a great win on Saturday and with Ball State knocking off Toledo, we control our own destiny."
On the Falcons having a bull's-eye on their back:
"That means we're doing something good. I like it."
On maintaining winning ways late in the season:
"That's been our focus. It's not how you start, it's how you finish. Last year we were in the same position and we didn't finish the job."
On going against Ben Roethlisberger and Miami's passing attack:
"With a passing team we know the game can be won or lost in the secondary."
===========================
* for as huge as this game is for miami, its also worth noting that theyve got marshall on deck next wednesday night at home on espn again. for those that remember, that is definitely a big revenger for miami given the way that game ended last season (with marshall winning in the last seconds on some suspect calls). so the "focus dynamic" involves both bgsu and miami, not just bowling green.
i guess im just convinced that bowling green really wants to atone for last years collapse when they were ranked and then had a bad november. theyre just too live a dog to not grab here.
so slap me with the "square stick" for one night. let me be joe public. im not going to "out-think" myself. yes the line is begging for bowling green money. lots of guys will look at the ranking and grab bgsu for their weekly 20 dollar bet for action. i guess im just confident that ive capped this conference long enough to feel like ive got the right side, even if it is a square side. if bowling green goes down by more than a touchdown, then that means i lose a couple hundred bucks knowing that harris and patton and the rest of the bgsu seniors allowed a november letdown to ruin their season two years in a row. i'll be lighter in the wallet, but it will hurt those guys more than it will me.
i honestly believe this game goes down to the final possession.
2 units......bowling green (+7) at even money
