BOWLS from Jord20
- Thread starter Jord20
- Start date
I did play Iowa over 51.5, but really like the side.
Tonight is ucla under 61 and -1.5
And wash -6 and under 57.5
Tonight is ucla under 61 and -1.5
And wash -6 and under 57.5
I guess I should have snagged the 7 at opener.
I played
Buckeyes +6
ML +190
Fh +3.5
ML +170
Under 74
Fh under 37.5
I played
Buckeyes +6
ML +190
Fh +3.5
ML +170
Under 74
Fh under 37.5
- Jan 27, 2010
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Hey jord,
If you had a minute or two would your insight on this game. Just struggling what to play and would really appreciate your thoughts.
Meyer over Helfrich is a HUUUGGGEE advantage. Urban is flat out the best coach in college football, in my opinion. His record as a dog is ridiculous.
Oregon has had it pretty easy in the past 5-6 games. Florida St (who I was on, lol) was pretty much garbage, and couldn't stop anyone all year. That game got away from the Noles, but they had plenty of blown chances early that they botched. Jimbo has the mind of a 3 year old in relation to Urban. Then before that, Zona, Oreg St, Colorado, and a Utah game that took a bizzare, luckbox play to flip that game.
The short of it is that I love fading high flying teams that run up the score and turn a 14 point victory into a 28 point victory. This earns style points, but is overvalued when it comes to simply winning a game. Fading the high flying Rams got the money in those Super Bowls, fading Oregon when they put up 19 vs Auburn, etc, etc. Championship games are different - coaching is a bigger factor, nerves, strategy... it favors smarter teams over the high fliers.
I don't buy the Ducks hype. I think Ohio St will be able to score frequently on them, and keep the Mariota and Co off the field enough to not let it be a total shootout. And, by the way, Ohio St has quietly put up similar offensive numbers (against better teams)... so it's not like they can't win a high scoring game.
Just watching football, I think the matchups favor the Buckeyes. Bucks should be able to run at will and Ducks O will struggle a bit with the losses at WR, and the pressure OSU should be able to maintain.
I think tOSU wins the game, so obviously I enjoy the 6. I will be surprised by a Ducks win. That Ducks D is still trash... not a championship D.
75 points is a lot of points to have to beat you. Have to take my chances at that number. I will prob play over in 2h if it's low to start... maybe an in-game.
this is basically my assessment, in addition to the question of how many 3 and outs the buckeyes can get. i have heard a lot of nonsense that the way to stop the ducks is in the red zone. while that is sort of true, the most effective way is to stop them in the first 3 downs to prevent cumulative fatigue throughout the game. when they get moving, they usually parade into the red zone with the tempo. if you stop them in the first 3, they get no tempo, you dont get tired, and you can grind on their crappy d the other way.
my football sense really suggests ohio st is the better team and should win this game. but that number is high for a reason. im having trouble reconciling the two. should be an interesting game. fwiw i have ducks 25-1 to win the title which i just split hedged with ohio st +6 since i couldnt make up my mind here. i was really tempted to put more on ohio st or put some ml in there but i ultimately got soft and greedy at the same time. can win all ways with this move and still lock in something decent. the real ballsy move imo would have been 1/3 of the 25-1 on ohio st +6, 1/3 of the 25-1 on +190. i always screw up these hedges.
i just dont think they are going to make a huge mistake with this number in such a high profile game, and while the consensus sites suggest there is plenty of duck action, thats not what i have seen on boards, tv, and in talking to some simpletons.
Everything you said in the 1st paragraph, I completely agree with. I'd def split some hedge with the ML.
I don't think the number is a mistake. Simpletons love the high powered O, and Ohio St with the 3rd string qb... books would be flooded with public Ducks money at a low number (they still are). Plus they have some futures liability on tOSU... so the hedging needs to be made higher for Ducks ML. Generally, I try to not analyze the lines as much in playoff games as I do in the regular season.
GL bombs... and nice future!
For what it is worth jord,,I have 75/25 on Oregon,,but the "smart" guys are on Ohio State at my store,,along with the over at a smaller lay,,
SI is definitely a book for squares. BUT all that means (from what I have seen) is that they offer the usual "what is out there" odds on dogs, but juice the line for favs. I really think they suck, but have a few bucks there for the odd occasion.
Thanks for all the great analysis in this thread, you guys!!! GL. :0074
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