bowls

[gardenweasel]

all you can do

all you can do

is compile the data and provide solid analysis and hope that common sense will carry the day...made sense to me ...sometimes,it just doesn`t matter.......

the talk about new mexico partying up a storm may have had some merit.....but,the better team won,regardless....

keep doing what you`re doing....it`s only one game and it`s a long bowl season......

the stronger games for me come later....we`ll get `em....

g.l.

 

[AR182]

3*over 55 vt/calif---a few things have led me to this play:

both teams have shaky pass defenses.

against 3 passing attack offenses(virginia, bc, & pitts.) that vt faced this year, they gave up 100 points & over 1300 yds.

calif. has gone over 30 points scored in 6 games.

on offense vt averages 34 points score & about 215 yds rushing per game.

calif. is 5-1 o/u in last 6 after playing an under.
vt is 11-3 o/u last 14 off 2 straight ats losses ( 10-1 o/u last 11 off an ats loss)


good luck & happy holidays

 

[AR182]

finally had a easy win !! will come back with:


3*over 52 pitt/virg.---played the total when the lines first came out. this is another game where we have explosive offenses going against soft defenses.


good luck!!

 

[AR182]

thought for sure the total in the pitt/vt would surely go over the 52 after 30 points scored at the half. but that's the way my season has been going. so far in the bowls i'm at 3-4 -8.05*

hoping to turn it around tonight:

2*under 50 neb/mich. st.---each team's defensive strengths play right into the other team's offensive strengths. so think that will slow down the scoring. think total for this game will be in the mid-40's.


good luck

 

[gardenweasel]

good job,a

good job,a

i`ll be curious to see your opinions on the next 2 day`s action.........some very interesting games.....

g.l.

 

[AR182]

1*navy+11.5--waited too long to play this, but it's a small play. a few things that i read that i found interesting:

military teams navy, army, and air force are 16-4 ATS in bowl games since 1981, including a perfect 6-0 ATS as underdogs of more than 9 points.

bowl favorites of -7 or more points who allow 24 or more points( tex. tech allows 35.7 ppg) are 5-42 ats, including 2-27 ats when opponent is off a win.


good luck

 

[AR182]

2*under 44 (120) ucla/ fresno st.---ucla's defense is better than their record would indicate. on average their defense yields a very good 4.4 yppl to teams that average 5.2 yppl on offense. the times fresno st. faced very good defenses (boise st., tenn., oregon st., & okla.) they averaged 17 points scored. fresno st's. defense is poor vs. the run but do have a good pass defense. their pass defense yields an average of 5.7 yppp to teams that combine to average 6.2 yppp. on offense. ucla's offense averages 5.5 yppp.
to me this means that the under is the play & i see about 40 points scored tonight.

good luck

 

[AR182]

1*wash. st.+10(120)--a few trends that i read:

bowl dogs off of a su loss as a favorite are 25-10-1 ats if they have allowed 20 or less points per game over the season, including 14-6 su & 16-4 ats if the opponent is off of a su win

under mack brown:

texas is 0-6 ats vs. pac 10 after scoring 35 or more.

7-16 ats away from home against winning teams, including 2-11 ats when favored off b2b wins & 4-10 ats in their last 14 bowl games


good luck

 

[gardenweasel]

hope you took a nibble on the moneyline......nice job....

 

[AR182]

2*wisconsin+4(130)---wisc. coach is the complete opposite of mack brown, in bowl games. while brown's teams do poorly in bowls, alvarez is 7-1 SU in bowls.i think wisc. is better than their 7-5 record. injuries have put them in bad situations as they lost four of their last five games. however, they were 4-3 ats against the seven bowl teams they played against this year & outscored those teams by an average of 26-22.

on the other hand, auburn was 2-5 su/ats verses bowl teams this year. in those games they were outscored by an average of 21-11 and outgained 325-277. in addition, auburn really struggled away from home this year, and was outscored by an average of 77-27, if you exclude their game vs. vandy.

wisc. is 27-1 ats as pick or dog when they allow less than 17 points, including 11-0 when off a loss & are 14-0 ats when the opponent is off a win.

good luck

 

[AR182]

2*minn.-2.5(130)---played this game awhile ago. many believe that minn. will have trouble running the ball vs. oregon (allow less than 100 rushing yards per game), but that was in the pass happy pac-10. if you put the 2 top rushing attacks from the pac-10
into the big 10, they would be ranked #5 & #7 in rushing average. even if minn. gains approximately 60% of their averaged rushing per game(293 yds. per game), they would rush for about 170-175 yds. when oregon allows more than 166 yards rushing & is favored or a dog of less than 6 points, they are 8-35 ats.

i see the line on this game climbing. if it continues to climb to about 7, i may play both sides.

good luck

 

[Master Capper]

good luck AR, appreciated all your input all season, you have helped me out all year. Lets cash the Gophers!!

 

[bigdad2]

AR182 - best of luck on your bowl selections and congrats on a solid season! I took Oregon at 6 as I agree that the line will probably cross 7. Hopefully it hits at 4-6 and we both win. Keep up the good work!

 

[ChrryBlstr]

good luck today!!!

 

[ajoytoy]

always enjoy your great write-ups (esp. when i am on the same side)

gl today and Happy New Year to you and your wife (and family)


toy

 

[AR182]

3*ark-2(120)--although i like the miz qb, feel that arkansas is the better team on both sides of the line. i see ark. pounding the ball at miz. defense because their defense finished 66th in total yards (380.7 ypg) & 63rd against the rush ( 166.2 ypg) nationally. on the road this year miz. lost their last 4 games by an average of 14 ppg & allowed 28.5 ppg.

3*col. st.+1---feel that boston college should be favored by more than 1, considering van pelt's health.


2*over 42(120) utah/so. miss.---utah has a very balanced offense where they average 28 ppg. & so. miss. has scored no less than 27 points in their last 6 games.


thanks for the nice words, guys!!

master capper,

it's funny that you say this because i think your threads are constantly very informative week after week.

bigdad2,

good to see you posting again. missed your posts!!

chrryblstr,

good luck to you also!!


good luck!!

 

[IntenseOperator]

Your write-ups are always impressive

I generally have an extremely hard time trying to find TIME to post a write-up now with college and NBA hoops going on as well

I almost forget to play the damn games half the time let along put my thoughts across with the keyboard

GL on your action

 

[AR182]

intense operator,

thanks for the kudos.my writeups may be impressive but am having a terrible year!! so the write-ups don't mean anything.

i brought this trend from another thread i started. so far if you bet the tougher strength teamsinteresting trend in the bowls your record up to & including the bc game would be 14-4.

Better strength of schedule are (10-0) ATS in this year's bowl games?

Team (SOS rank)
Mem (90) No. Tx (106)
Mia-OH (70) Lville (110)
NCSt (22) Kansas (73)
TCU (95) Boise (105)
Ore St (41) N. Mex(84)
Hou (79) Haw (88)
Nwestern (24) BG (30)
Cal (19) Va Tech (60)
VA (49) Pitt (54)
Neb (32) Mich St (42)

Today's Games......
TTech (29) Navy (116)
UCLA (33) Fres St (74)
Tex (20) Wash St (44)

============================================

WISC (25) AUB (23)
MIN (83) ORE (34)
UTAH (59) SO MISS (56)
MIZZ (82) ARK (18)
BC (51) COL ST (27)
IOWA (17) FL (5)
WV (62) MARY (57)
PUR (40) GA (16)
OK ST (58) MISS (69)
CLE (52) TEN (46)
TUL (99) GA TECH (48)
LSU (36) OK (10)
FSU (15) MIA (13)
MICH (14) USC (37)
K ST (11) OHIO ST (6)

so if you follow this system the bets for 1/1 would be:

fla., maryland, georgia, mich., & miami

interesting.

 

[AR182]

got my ass handed to me yesterday. hopefully today will be better.

2.5* 7 point teaser on under 53.5 fla./iowa & under 50 geo./ purdue

3.5*mich.+8(120)

sorry no time for write-ups.

good luck & enjoy your day!!

 

[gardenweasel]

just rolled out of the rack

just rolled out of the rack

and wanted to say,happy and healthy new year to you and your family....you are one of the most sought out posters in football and in the general discussion forum...and a class guy.....and i know,although i don`t usually follow,that you`ve opened my eyes to many winning plays that i had absolutely overlooked...don`t undercut yourself... ...excellent job...


that said,i plopped a double wager down on usc/mich 56....now it`s at 59 and i might see 60....didn`t think it would stay at 56....nice middle coming...

also looking at under 47(might have to buy a pt) in the miami/fla st game....familiarity.....that miami pass defense....brock berlin`s ineptitude.....mediocre ground games on both sides of the ball....

i`d also like to tease it,but i don`t see anything worthy(and i don`t want to have multiple wagers tied into the usc over).....

still scoping....

best of luck today....