Boxing 3/18 - 3/19

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boxlox23
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YTD Total: +10.55 units
2 unit plays: 1-0 +2
1 unit plays: 5-0 +4.6
.5 unit plays: 16-12 -1.35
Dogs: 14-13 +5.3

3/18
Lucas over Crawford -453 1 unit (winner)

Dog
Magee-Vester under 6.5 +100...lay .45 (winner)

3/19
Arce-Hussein over 11.5 -106 1/2 unit (loser)

Dogs
Pacquiao by decision +335...lay .3 to win 1 unit (loser)
Morales by 12 round decision +505...lay .2 to win 1 unit (winner)
Morales wins in rounds 10-12 +1025..lay .1 to win 1 unit (loser)

gl bl
 
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boxlox23
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Before you lay money on the Pacquiao-Morales fight...

This will be pacman's first fight at 130, and he only fought at 126 twice since moving up from 122.

After the last Morales-Barrera fight I pointed out that the 130 lb gloves seemed very big on Barrera. If you don't think so, watch their first fight at 122 and then watch their last fight at 130, there's a huge difference.

My point is, if the gloves looked big on Barrera, I can only imagine how big they will be on Pacquiao. One thing I remember about the Pac-Barrera fight is that Barrera looked much bigger than Pac.

At 130 lbs Pac will be very small, and the gloves will be very big on him. I don't expect them to slow Pac down, but I think they will have a huge influence on his punching power.
 
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MayorgaFan

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Why did you take the Arce-Huseein over if you don;t mind me asking?
 
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boxlox23
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Of course I don't mind...

* Hussein went 12 rounds with Wongjongkong
* Wongjongpong stopped Rubillar in the 5th round
* Rubillar went the full 12 rounds with Arce...TWICE

If you put all that togethor you can see that if Hussein can take Wong's punch he should be able to take Arce's. And this fight is at Hussein's usual weight of 112, Arce usually fights at 108 and weighed in less than 106 last year against Castro.

This is not a lock, Arce has power at 108, I understand the line. But Hussein will be the bigger guy and he showed a great chin against Wong so at even money I feel like I have the advantage here.
 
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MayorgaFan

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BOXLOCKS said:
Of course I don't mind...

* Hussein went 12 rounds with Wongjongkong
* Wongjongpong stopped Rubillar in the 5th round
* Rubillar went the full 12 rounds with Arce...TWICE

If you put all that togethor you can see that if Hussein can take Wong's punch he should be able to take Arce's. And this fight is at Hussein's usual weight of 112, Arce usually fights at 108 and weighed in less than 106 last year against Castro.

This is not a lock, Arce has power at 108, I understand the line. But Hussein will be the bigger guy and he showed a great chin against Wong so at even money I feel like I have the advantage here.
Click to expand...

OK, I'll give my side (our odds taken are a bit different). Arce hits very hard, I realize he went 12 with Rubillar but in the last 4 years I believe that's the only guy to go the distance with him. Pong didn't KO Hussein but he did drop him pretty well. Also, Pong wasn't as agressive as Arce will be.

Here's the bigger issue though, Arce cuts. He has lots of scar tissue above his right eye. The first fight with Castro ended in a TD because of a nasty cut on Arce. he also got very hurt in that fight which was diturbing. Castro can't punch. He was cut against Agustin Luna as well (nasty cut). Hussein has the abilty to cut him or even hurt Arce if he catches him well. Arce's chin isn;t exactly granite.

Regardless, good luck. I had taken the under at +135 and +126 when it opened. I think Arce's style creates a stoppage. I was curious on your opinion though since I saw we differed. I really look forward to this weekend :)
 
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gardenweasel

gardenweasel

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finally got my computer mess straightened out....look forward to weighing in on future action....

g.l. guys..

btw...the line seems sharp....i`ve been an arce fan since i saw him beat on michael carbajal before getting careless late and getting stopped....

i`m surprised at the line on morel/castillo....and disappointed....i`ve always been a morel hater...i think the guy is way overrated....was hoping for more favorable odds....these odds are very high,imo....
 
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boxlox23
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MayorgaFan said:
I really look forward to this weekend :)
Click to expand...

I assume you are talking about Morales-Pacquiao.

Since its a mainstream fight with plenty of action on both sides, I'm sure Joey won't mind if you give me your take on it.

If not send me an e-mail, there's a lot of things I'd like to discuss with you privately anyway.
 
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MayorgaFan

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I don't have your email. I have seen you post at boxrec before though. You cant send private messages here but you can send them there. I sent you 1 at boxrec if you want to look.
 
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MayorgaFan

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MayorgaFan said:
I don't have your email. I have seen you post at boxrec before though. You cant send private messages here but you can send them there. I sent you 1 at boxrec if you want to look.
Click to expand...

test :cursin:
 
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boxlox23
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Adding

Lucas over Crawford -453 1/2 unit

I'd like to play this bigger but the wood is just too heavy. I've seen Crawford fight a couple of times and he's absolutely horrible. I'm surprised the odds aren't much higher, especially with the fight being in Lucas' back yard.

gl bl
 
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damien4191

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This will be pacman's first fight at 130, and he only fought at 126 twice since moving up from 122.

It is true that it is Pac's first fight at 130 but remember it was Barrera's first fight at 130 when he beat Morales last November.The reason I'm taking Pacquao is because Morales is a flat footed fighter and I think Manny's pressure will be to much. Pac by decision.

I'm actually hoping on a plane in a few hours to see this fight live. Hope you all enjoy the fight.
 
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boxlox23
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Damien
Have a great time at the fight, I'm sure you will.

In case you didn't notice I played Pac by decision +335

The reason for my writeup was to let others know that I don't think Pac will stop Morales. So if you like Pac, the decision line at +335 has great value.

gl bl
 
1837

1837

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Didn't know they had line for Lucas-Crawford!!! :scared Too bad i missed the opening line at -453... Now it is -485 but it should be -1000 so i am laying 1500$ on it for a nice +300 profit :) Don't be scared by the line it should be much higher as stated by Boxlocks. Lucas is trying a comeback and want a revenge match vs Beyer and to retake his belt. He is gonna "killed" and win by KO before the 9th! I had the chance to talk to eric when he was robbed right after the Beyer match in Germany and he is a great guy. I don,t know much about Crawford but if Box what you are ltelling us about him is true it is definitely easy money on that fight if you are not afraid to lay the moula! :mj14: :)
 
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boxlox23
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1837
Crawford is punching bag, a journeyman at best. Every time he steps up, he gets knocked out. I can't figure out why the line opened so low, and why it took so long to move. Its finally up to -500 but I'm pretty sure thats because of me, I hit it hard 2 days ago and unloaded my account on it last night. The only thing that concerns me (besides the line) is that Lucas recently started promoting himself, I hope all the BS isn't too much of a distraction. Against Crawford it shouldn't matter.

gl bl
 
1837

1837

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Box, About Lucas self promotion here is the story...

Interbox (the compagny who was hiring him, own him lots of $$$ when he was world champ, they got financial problem and to get out of that mess, around 1 year ago, Lucas purchased them (like Mario Lemieux in hockey when Penguins owns him big $$$) and now he is the manager and promote a couple of pretty good boxers from here. It should not be a problem about being manager as he is doing this for the last year. He has decided to make a come back recently and his target his .. Beyer and to regain the world champ belt. Crawford was not suppose to be the fighter at first but the guy they target withdraw so he had to take Crawford who is rank 86 in the world. It will be his second fight since his comeback (won by KO last time) and even though yesterday he barely made the weight (had to weight naked to make it!) it should not be a problem tonight. IF he ever lose that fight (wich i seriously doubted!) he can kiss good bye the path taken to regain his belt.

We agree both it should be an easy fight. Just hope it will end quickly! :)
 
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