Boxing 3/27 - 3/29

[BOXLOCKS]

YTD Total: -0.20 units
1 unit play: 0-1 -1.30
1/2 units: 12-7....+0.65
Dogs: 8-16....+1.05
LT's: 0-7....-0.60


Played these so far...


3/27 Dog

Karl over Bastient +125...lay .60 to win .75 (loser)


Pending Parlay

Rees-Kotelnik Over 11.5 -380 / Spinks over Phillips -550 / Margarito over Cintron -310...(even)...Lay .30 to win .30 (loser)

Alexander -550 / Ouma -650 / McCarter Mrdjenovich Over 9? -485...(-150)...lay .45 to win .30 (loser)


Still looking at Valle over Reyes +200 and Braithwaite Under 9.5 +200 as small value plays. Will also add another parlay when 5dimes copies the lines

gl bl

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Ouma-Bundrige

Ouma-Bundrige

Well, I just lost a long detailed post due some computer bullshit and I refuse to waste another hour of my life so here's a quik summary...

* Bundrige only had 3 weeks to prepare for Julio, had a full training camp for this fight

* Ouma was overconfident and unfocused in his last fight, he was overwelmed by a guy who could keep up with his pace. Roman was a straight up brawler with a high work rate, thats not Bundrige's style at all. Ouma's backs against the wall now, a must win situation


In a 12 rounder, I'd like Ouma big and would put him in several parlays. Bundrige, like most muscle bound fighters, has serious stamina issues, there's no way he lasts 12 rounds with Ouma. He was completely gassed and almost stopped in the last few rounds by the mediocre Chris Smith, and that was only a 10 rounder. Bun built up an early lead on the cards and escaped with the decision. This fight is 10 rounds as well, so I'll only play Ouma small. I think Bundrage will get off to a fast start, Ouma's defense has never been good and Bun will look to hurt him early, Ouma is wide open for the straight right hand and thats Bun's best punch. Bun might look good early with counters, landing the bigger shots while his power lasts. But after 5 or 6 rounds he'll fade, esp under the relentless pressure of Ouma. Despite having some early success, Bun will still get outworked, even in his good rounds. Hard hitting counter-punchers like him usually end up loosing a decision to the unbelievable work rate of Ouma

However...

Due to Ouma's last performance, the 10 rounds factor, and my hunch that Bun could have some early success...I'll only put Ouma in a small parlay, as opposed to loading up like I would if it were a 12 rounder. Now just looking for a partner, I've got one in mind...


gl bl

 

[Romi]

I have
-spinks by dec -206
-over on spinks/verno 11 1/2 -330
-alexander -550


Unless Spinks gets clipped, I can't see it ending early. Once again i don't like 11 1/2 for an over wager but Spinks couldn't ko Spongebob. Against a young verno, I don't take that wager.

 

[Zerwas]

I played Spinks over 9 so far at 1.3 (bwin) and Verno inside distance at 12 (bodog).


@boxlox
Your play on Karl looks interesting, I have seen Bastient against Sylvester, he's a crude slugger without serious power but he certainly comes to fight...

Their last fight of them was very close, but Bastient knocked him down 3 times...

 

[Zerwas]

I looks like bodog made some mistakes copying their lines

Marquez vs. McKart under 9.5 +135

Ayala vs. Abraham Under 8.5 +120


It seems like they just switched the lines for over and under...

 

[BOXLOCKS]

Adding a small parlay...

Alexander -550 / Ouma -650 / McCarter Mrdjenovich Over 9? -485...(-150)...lay .45 to win .30


gl bl

 

[Romi]

Added yoan hernandez -165. Braite is on the decline. He was dominated by enzo. Hernandez perhaps a bit green but 6' 4" and on the rize. I thought -165 was a little generous. A possibilbility of a stoppage in this one. I don't think braite handles pressure too well. His hope is to bring this one deep and drown the younger fighter.

 

[Romi]

I forgot about my parlay last night (which had spinks) so I actually went 2-2 but still won the 2 bigger ones for a decnt night. I'm up 600 and change with a scalp option on Hernandez. 600 isn't alot but it's guranteed if I want it. I'm considering some other wagers tonight.

BTW- I invested the 30 bucks on Boxingforecast last week. It's early in the game but I'm not really impressed w/anything the guy has to offer. It's only 30 bucks but his comments kind of leaned me towards the scalp last week on the Andrade over/under which I got 75 guaranteed as opposed to the 575.00 which I would have won had I stayed put. His picks don't come out til late (after the odds are posted) and he doesn't offer an opinion on all the big fights. He left out Spinks/Phillips completely. The jury is still out but unimpressed so far.

 

[Spreadking]

Did the boxingforecast guy give you the pick he posted on his tracking sheet ?

I'm trusting my instinct and going with McKart.

and Romanov next weekend . the under as well.

 

[Romi]

Did the boxingforecast guy give you the pick he posted on his tracking sheet ?
I'm trusting my instinct and going with McKart.

and Romanov next weekend . the under as well.

Not sure what you mean by that... what fight are you referring too?

I added the under on edwards/bell +250. It's a small play but jesus, Bell has been stopped twice early and one of the guys was to somebody I think my daughter could beat up.

 

[Zerwas]

5dimes has Bundrage inside the distance at +2450!!

I think of all outcomes this is the least likely, but those odds really seem to be very high.

Feedback!?

 

[Spreadking]

the way things have been going with the Vera KO prop +8000......Verno by decision prop +1500.

K-9 doesn't have great power, but he might be able to land the right hand flush on Ouma.

I wouldn't put too much on it.....but the odds are tempting.

 

[Spreadking]

Not sure what you mean by that... what fight are you referring too?

I added the under on edwards/bell +250. It's a small play but jesus, Bell has been stopped twice early and one of the guys was to somebody I think my daughter could beat up.

just referring to all of his picks. Just to make sure he is not giving out one set of picks to members, and then changing them up after the face.

i saw katsidids let him down this past week..but overall he's been doing a good job.

 

[Romi]

I forgot about my parlay last night (which had spinks) so I actually went 2-2 but still won the 2 bigger ones for a decnt night. I'm up 600 and change with a scalp option on Hernandez. 600 isn't alot but it's guranteed if I want it. I'm considering some other wagers tonight.

BTW- I invested the 30 bucks on Boxingforecast last week. It's early in the game but I'm not really impressed w/anything the guy has to offer. It's only 30 bucks but his comments kind of leaned me towards the scalp last week on the Andrade over/under which I got 75 guaranteed as opposed to the 575.00 which I would have won had I stayed put. His picks don't come out til late (after the odds are posted) and he doesn't offer an opinion on all the big fights. He left out Spinks/Phillips completely. The jury is still out but unimpressed so far.

Those comments kind of bit me in the ass. He called the Bundrige upset spot on and Valle nearly had the upset over reyes. I didn't wager either but very good calls on both fights. Hopefully some in here got the bundrige upset. I didn't see it coming. If he can call the upset at a 50% clip then it's more than worth the 30 bucks. That was a +500 betting option.

I considered the over on valle/reyes but held off. I have the scalp option on Hernandez/braite and would like any comments if anybody has any on that one. I just might scalp and take my winnings for the week.

 

[nj]

Those comments kind of bit me in the ass. He called the Bundrige upset spot on and Valle nearly had the upset over reyes. I didn't wager either but very good calls on both fights. Hopefully some in here got the bundrige upset. I didn't see it coming. If he can call the upset at a 50% clip then it's more than worth the 30 bucks. That was a +500 betting option.

I considered the over on valle/reyes but held off. I have the scalp option on Hernandez/braite and would like any comments if anybody has any on that one. I just might scalp and take my winnings for the week.

I played Bund 35 for 165 and over 60 for 50 as he recommended. Lost 50 on Valle but damn that was close. Still, it covers the 30/month fee quite nicely.

I didn't think Bund would win and played it blindly. The over was borderline as well, the volume Ouma of old would have stopped him. That's why I didn't post my plays here.

At 30/month it's been worth another perspective. Some of the write-ups are poor like the Kat/Cas which I went against and did much better, some are gems, like obscure fights the public doesn't play but he analyzes thoroughly. If you play his 10 most confident and go 6-4 for +200 it's worth it.

 

[tonymontana]

I like hernandez under 9 and a half. This guy has genuine power and he doesnt need to load up to deliver it. Braithwaite put up a good effort against Enzo but he is going down in this on or he lands a big one himself.
Hernandez straight is also a nice bet but i like the plus money.

 

[Hellephant]

I like hernandez under 9 and a half. This guy has genuine power and he doesnt need to load up to deliver it. Braithwaite put up a good effort against Enzo but he is going down in this on or he lands a big one himself.
Hernandez straight is also a nice bet but i like the plus money.

I?m not sold on Hernandez. I have not seen that genuine power, and in my book he does load up to deliver. I give Braithwaite a chance, and I?m on him at +225.

I would like to add:
1. I?ve overrated Braithwaite before.
2. I?m not on a winning streak. Last three weeks has been bad.

 

[tonymontana]

I?m not sold on Hernandez. I have not seen that genuine power, and in my book he does load up to deliver. I give Braithwaite a chance, and I?m on him at +225.

I would like to add:
1. I?ve overrated Braithwaite before.
2. I?m not on a winning streak. Last three weeks has been bad.

I went to Berlin just to see him live against a durable opponent in Daniel Bispo. Bispo was knocked out once before against Fres in 9.
But went the distance against Cantatore, Corrie Sanders (Sanders hurt his left hand in the first though), Fragomeni.

Hernandez took him out with a two shot combo and Bispo was out cold for five minutes at least.
If you look at Hernadez record he takes guys out very early (6 kos in the first round of 8 stoppages) and they are KOs not Tkos.
This pattern lead me to bet first round ko of Azzaoui and Hernandez delivered. But Azzaoui basically quit in this on but he quit because he didnt like to feel the power of Hernandez.

Anyway i have not seen the fights of Hernandez in which he had problems (Avila).

The good thing with my bet is i dont care who gets the ko and Braithwaite is not likely dec in germany against Hernandez.
The odds are basically the same at 200 and 225.
Maybe Wayne gets lucky and we both win.

 

[Romi]

I went to Berlin just to see him live against a durable opponent in Daniel Bispo. Bispo was knocked out once before against Fres in 9.
But went the distance against Cantatore, Corrie Sanders (Sanders hurt his left hand in the first though), Fragomeni.

Hernandez took him out with a two shot combo and Bispo was out cold for five minutes at least.
If you look at Hernadez record he takes guys out very early (6 kos in the first round of 8 stoppages) and they are KOs not Tkos.
This pattern lead me to bet first round ko of Azzaoui and Hernandez delivered. But Azzaoui basically quit in this on but he quit because he didnt like to feel the power of Hernandez.

Anyway i have not seen the fights of Hernandez in which he had problems (Avila).

The good thing with my bet is i dont care who gets the ko and Braithwaite is not likely dec in germany against Hernandez.
The odds are basically the same at 200 and 225.
Maybe Wayne gets lucky and we both win.

Thx for the comments Tony. Going to stick w/the bet, no scalp.

 

[tonymontana]

Thx for the comments Tony. Going to stick w/the bet, no scalp.

at your odds hernandez is a great bet. I also read that Braithwaite has taking training very easy, but he is dangerous and has a fighter heart so i dont expect him to lay down but he is very open too.
I also take a 30 dollar shot with Ayala because abraham is beatable if you dont get knocked out.
Thats a big if but so are the odds