Boxing down the road a piece; Margarito-Cintron; 4/12/2008

[frank s.]

Basically I am all over Margarito, even at the VERY large number @-290. Cintron has fought much less calibre opposition. I see Margarito coming in with a vengence here after his loss to Williams. Margarito is 29 years and surely wants to salvage his career and make some more money for his egg-nest. He won't get much love from the HBO-Showtime suits if he does not look good. True, Cintron wants to deposit some big checks also, but I don't think Margarito gives 2 poops. Nest egg.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

I have Cintron at +275 but to be honest I'm not real confident in the play. I just think the number is too high and Cintron is the better fighter, throws the straighter punches, and he can bang with the best of 'em. The problem is...he has a questionable heart and Margarito can expose that like no one else can. Surprisingly enough, it was Cintron who wanted this fight, he made it happen. Its like he knows something we don't. He was cut early in the first fight and was clearly bothered by it. I think he makes a better showing here, but I'm not sure he has what it takes when Marg turns it on. Cintron's hand is a very big issue, he hurt it badly against Feliciano and I dought its had enough time to fully heal. Marg has a hard head and he takes alot of punches, how long will Cintrons hands hold up. I still think Cintron +275 has value, but a small play only, and possibly a hedge down the road due to the hand issue

I also have the Under 9.5 +125, which can now be scalped at +145 and still rising, hate it when that happens

gl frank

 

[Zerwas]

This is a very tough fight for Cintron.

He is the kind of fighter that relies on his power and I just dont see him hurting Margarito.

I like Margarito, but at those odds...

I'm also not sure how long he can compete at that level, he's not that old, but he's been a pro for quite some time...

Right now, I think I might skip this fight.

:shrug:

 

[nj]

On another forum Cintron's old conditioning coach Joe Pastore logged on after the Feliciano fight and talked about him. They said his hand has troubled him for a long time beginning as an amateur and could happen again easily.

More importantly, they said he's fragile and dependent, and is erratic and unfocused in training. He apparently blew off training for Margarito to spend time with some woman, and she basically controlled his life. He didn't train for Margarito and was looking for a way out once times got rough. They are of course upset since Cintron ditched them for Manny, but that's still pertinent information. Cintron is said to be an introvered and somewhat withholding and unpredictable person, I would take that to mean we don't know how he'll react or if he'll follow instructions.

When you consider that both of his parents died by the time he was a teenager or so, it's not surprising he'd have some mental issues. Take that for what it's worth, which perhaps isn't much.

As boxlox said, the fact that Cintron pressed for this fight could be significant, maybe he's past this and better prepared under Steward. With what I know now it's no play, hopefully some inside info becomes available.

 

[nj]

Cintron wants to deposit some big checks also, but I don't think Margarito gives 2 poops.

I definitely agree with that, a 75% prepared Margarito is probably still tougher and more resilient than a 100% Cintron.

I would expect Cintron to get the better of the early rounds and Margarito to swarm him from round 8 or so looking for a stoppage, then it comes down to Cintron's will and Margarito's training, and Margarito is the more reliable guy.

 

[BOXLOCKS]

On another forum Cintron's old conditioning coach Joe Pastore logged on after the Feliciano fight and talked about him. They said his hand has troubled him for a long time beginning as an amateur and could happen again easily.

More importantly, they said he's fragile and dependent, and is erratic and unfocused in training. He apparently blew off training for Margarito to spend time with some woman, and she basically controlled his life. He didn't train for Margarito and was looking for a way out once times got rough. They are of course upset since Cintron ditched them for Manny, but that's still pertinent information. Cintron is said to be an introvered and somewhat withholding and unpredictable person, I would take that to mean we don't know how he'll react or if he'll follow instructions.

When you consider that both of his parents died by the time he was a teenager or so, it's not surprising he'd have some mental issues. Take that for what it's worth, which perhaps isn't much.

As boxlox said, the fact that Cintron pressed for this fight could be significant, maybe he's past this and better prepared under Steward. With what I know now it's no play, hopefully some inside info becomes available.

Excellent post...thanks

 

[nj]

I posted the links here when the fight was announced but they were removed by mods. I revisited the thread, this jumped out me:

"Kermit boxed Bernard Hopkins to a standstill in sparring?

Sure did. 24 rounds total. All were extremely close. Sparring had to be stopped the first day because it became so heated. It was getting out of control. But yes, 24 rounds and very hard to pick a winner in every round. But, I also watch him quit against Yusef Mack, Andrew Lewis, and Erik Mitchell. It was when we were preparing Kermit to fight Elio Ortiz. Hopkins was about 170 and Kermit was walking around at about 164 at that time. His weight stayed between 162-164 the whole time I Marshall and I had him."

"? That is until women started entering his life."

"?He also dropped Kassim Ouma in the Poconos. It all came down to his mental state at that particular time. If his personal life was right and he had no outside destractions then he was gonna be hell for anyone to box. Problem is you never knew which Kermit was gonna show up."

"When I say he quit in sparring I need to clarify and be more specific. He didnt stop sparring and take his gloves off. He would just submit. Go into a shell and stop fighting back. To put it in perspective go rewatch the last round or two of his fight with Margarito. Look at his face when he was looking at us in the corner. He looks for a way out."


:scared perhaps Cintron should fight Zab Judah instead, they could do it WWE style, you know one of those stupid "I Quit" matches.

Margarito is among the most determined guys in the game, even if Cintron is completely focused and undistracted he's probably nowhere near Margarito's mental level.

 

[Romi]

I like Margo in this one. I think he'll break the will of Kermit. Kermit will pretty much need a ko here IMO. I can't see him holding off margo over the course. Margo is tough as nails and absolutely no quit in the guy. He was getting pasted by PW and Clot early in both fights and came on strong late. I don't think Kermit has the mental fortitude to go to hell w/Margo. Feliciano gave him all could handle but doesn't posess the strength of Margo. I like Margo in about 8 rds.

 

[frank s.]

Lots of guys press for particular matches.;maybe, as Allen Greenspan coined, "irrational exuberance', or pride, or just being over eager. In any case, I look at some of Cintrons last opponents. Quality of opposition is a key factor in any matchup.Magarito has killer instinct and is mentally tough. Also, I see his hand problem causing him to quit on his stool after it gives him trouble. I would LOVE to find a parlay partner to run with this one. I will play Margarito INSIDE most likely. I am not sure about the 9.5 right now. Thank one and all for the timely/quality feedback. You guys are aces, one and all.

 

[nj]

Last pieces of useful info, particularly about the hand. Had to filter out the ?Manny sucks!? diatribes lol. Most venom was towards Steward not Cintron, so I don?t think these comments are too emotionally biased.

Pastore also works with Rahman, ill relay insight when it becomes relevant. Apparently they?ve opened camp for a May fight with Derrick Rossy and he?s started conditioning.

The hand:

?Kermit first hurt his hand as an amateur while throwing a right uppercut??

?Did you see the right hands he dropped [Teddy] Reid with? Explosive?did you see him flop to the ground and roll around in pain? [as he did vs Feliciano]?here is the diagnosis of Dr. Kulp after that [Reid] fight. Fracture to the 3rd metacarpal. A rupture of the third extensor tendon. A rupture of the third metacarpophalangeal joint capsule, and finally avascular necrosis.?

?It was operated on 3 times by the famous Dr. Charles Melone before finally being properly diagnosed and repaired by Dr. Kulp in Philly.?

Training:

?? I saw sparring footage of Teddy in Tom Yankellos training camp?he knocked out two heavyweights with one shot while wearing 18oz glove and of course headgear?.
rewatch the fight and listen in between the 4th-5th round. Kermit had a breakdown in between those rounds.?

?As for th Margarito fight... well when you are focussed on nothing but your new girlfriend and not your training you get a performance like you all saw. He was routinely late for training, quit workouts, quit sparring sessions early, quit runs, and totally neglected his normal strength training routine.?

Credit to Pastore for the comments.

 

[nj]

If you're too lazy to read all of the above, just play Margarito

 

[gardenweasel]

i think i agree with the toughness/resiliency argument......i have serious questions regarding cintron`s mental toughness if things start going south....

i don`t think margarito`s a great fighter...he`s struggled vs certain styles(clottey`s quick combo`s gave him fits and slick lefty daniel santos(up a wt. class)gave him real trouble.....

cintron`s really talented physically...probably more so than margarito(he`s a natural athlete and a solid technician) .....i just don`t think he can out-tough a warrior like margarito...

bad style match-up for cintron...s`he gonna stick and move?.....i don`t think so...i think margarito will take what cintron gives and just keep coming...

and i don`t see this going the distance(famous last words)....feliciano and estrada took 10 rounds of punishment from cintron,and margarito`s tougher and bigger than both guys...by the 10th,cintron should be used up....

boy...if this follows form,there`s been a slew of fights of late in which the technician just seems to get out-willed by the physically stronger/mentally tougher guy(at least on the scorecards)......

 

[HurricaneEddy]

I know its not 100% BUT - In rematches I usually go with the victor in the original (especially if it was dominant- as in this case) Im ALL over Margarito

 

[frank s.]

Margarito WAS -300 at Ceasars Palace, got bet down to -200, is now today -240. Wish I caught it -200. This is going to be a good fight. Both of these guys know their respective boxing futures are on the line. Margarito, if he does not win, will seem to be a shot fighter. If Cintron wins, he vindicates himself, and shows he is for real. Will this be a strategic boxing match, or will we see a "fight"? I think now matter how it starts, it turns into a brawl. Just the nature of the beast(s). I like Margarito su-240, and would love a parlay IF I had something to go with it.

 

[frank s.]

Money still rolling in on Cintron. Stations Casinos here was running Margarito-270 for weeks; now down to -220. Someone smacked it real good. I could get a 25 cent scalp here but I haven't had much luck doing that. With the small off-shore limits, it usually just amounts to cheap thrills. Seems there is a consensus out there thinks Cintron has learned his lesson well. I don't think he will be able to keep Margarito off him the way Williams could.

 

[weepaul]

This fight is a no play for me.

I think Kermit is a much better fighter than he showed in the first fight but Margarito is such a tough hombre.

If I was going to bet, it would have to be on Kemit due to the odds. I think he will give a better account of himself in this fight.

NO PLAY!!!

Good luck.

 

[gardenweasel]

i really like cintron as a fighter...but,even given all his power and straight punching...as pretty as he can look in the ring,when really pressed,he tends to struggle a bit...

feliciano and estrada really tested cintron,but neither can create the kind of offense that margarito can....

no height advantage here....

i think i caught cintron at around +255...i guess it was a reflex reaction...he`s soooo talented...i`d like to see him get over the margarito hump and become the force that we all thought he`d become....

but,i have serious doubts about him vs margarito`s style and size...he`s never been stopped(except in a jr middleweight fight vs lefty daniel santos due a cut caused by a headbutt).....

so you have to think that cintron will have to travel a long hard road to beat margarito...or do something nobody else has done...

10 or so rounds in hard fights vs estrada and estrada...he took punishment vs these guys...and he`ll get much more in return from a margarito....

can he hurt margarito...keep him honest?...discourage him?...he`ll have to...or can he use his excellent jab to keep margarito off balance?......`cause maragrito will be coming...he only knows one way...and that`s forward...

i`m probably gonna parlay margarito with something to see if i can make a few dollars while being protected....

cause,balls to the wall,i think margarito will probably out tough kermit....sorry to say...

one thing i do believe,though...i think cointron IS the harder puncher here...margarito is a busy swarmer who throws alot of hooks....so,cintron,if not intimidated,will have some openings...

can cintron do what nobody else could and get margarito out of there...maybe cut margarito this time?....


this HAS to be a war....

 

[frank s.]

A war yes, IF Cintron doesn't cave in. I'd say he still has nightmares of the fight at Ceasars when Margarito KO'd him. I also agree, he will probably look better this time around. Margarito will have a harder time winning this one. Again I want to point out that just because a guy clamors for a rematch doesn't mean he "KNOWS" something as has been suggested. Mosley, Marquez, Jermain Taylor, just to name a few, all were anxious for reamtches they all lost. Of course Cintron realizes he must overcome the loss to Margarito to legitimize himself. And please DO NOT believe a word Manny Steward says. He thinks all his fighters are the worlds greatest and will win by first round KO. Is he even training Cintron? The price is coming down because it was too high from the get-go. Margarito should be no mre than -175-200, if that much.

 

[almly]

Bottom line is this: after the last fight with Feliciano you can not lay any money on Cintron to beat Margarito.

 

[tonymontana]

cintron inside at 475 looks good to me as a long shot.
also the road warrior inside at 785.