Baseball Prospectus:
Chicago White Sox
* Activity v. Progress: What had been a rather quiet offseason for the White Sox suddenly turned busy in the last month as GM Kenny Williams signed several players and made one big trade. The new cast, in order of appearance:
Dustin Hermanson, late the closer of the San Francisco Giants, was signed to a two-year, $5.5MM deal, ostensibly to be the eighth-inning man. Hermanson enjoyed moderate success bouncing between the Giants? pen and rotation for the last year and a half, posting translated ERAs much closer to his more respectable seasons in Montreal than his more recent efforts in Boston and St. Louis. While his ability to step into the rotation in case of injury is a nice bonus, that kind of versatility would have to come with some major perks to justify his contract. Plucking quality pitchers on the cheap to pitch in set-up roles is a skill not yet mastered in a lot of front offices. Considering the short length of Hermanson's contract and its relative size, signing him is not a bad move.
Oakland?s own Lemony Snicket, Jermaine Dye, was signed to a two-year, $10.15M contract to replace the departed (and not offered arbitration) Magglio Ordonez. Dye will be cheaper than Ordonez, but he won?t provide nearly the same offensive punch that Ordonez did until his lost 2004. He hasn?t approached his impressive performances of 1999-2001 since shattering his shin in the 2001 postseason, and has battled through several injuries in the years since then. If the Sox can keep him healthy, he has a chance to post respectable numbers; at an offensive position like right field, however, that would make him league-average at best.
Four days after signing Dye, the Sox shipped one of their best remaining hitters, Carlos Lee, to Milwaukee for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino and, eventually, prospect Travis Hinton. Perhaps Williams has switched allegiances from Oakland to the Brewers. After calling the White Sox?s third-leading runs scored total in 2004 "deceiving," the Sox declared themselves to be on the speed'n'defense track with this move, hoping to duplicate the success of the Rockies teams that implemented the same plan a few years ago.
There?s just one problem: unless Vizcaino is the best fielding pitcher in history, this trade only solves half that equation. Podsednik?s 2003 success at the plate was out of line with his previous performance record and he regressed badly from it in 2004. How he managed to steal 70 bases with a .313 OBP is beyond us, but that impressive total no doubt masked his below-average offense and defense. If the Sox were strapped for cash or got some decent prospects in return, moving Lee could be defensible. That?s not the case here.
After shipping Lee out of town, the Sox re-signed Juan Uribe to a three-year, $9.75MM deal, rewarding him for an impressive 2004 in which he became one of the first hitters to benefit from leaving Colorado. With the shortstop not eligible for free agency for a few more seasons, the White Sox would have been better off giving Uribe one more year to prove that 2004 wasn?t a fluke, but the faults in a deal of this size are minimal.
Having been unable to lure Randy Johnson to the South Side, just before Christmas the Sox settled for Orlando Hernandez on a two-year, $8MM contract. A suspect 35 years old, Hernandez has been effective when he's been available, and the length and cost of his contract fits in with the lower tier of starting pitchers this off-season. If El Duque can manage 150-175 innings of reasonable pitching in 2005, the deal will be a bargain. If he breaks down, the Sox haven?t lost much.
To complete the puzzle, and still seeking to emulate the Twins, the Sox picked up discarded catcher A.J. Pierzynski for one year and $2.25MM. Pierzynski struggled last year in San Francisco, both with the bat and with his teammates, but Ben Davis is not the answer at catcher for the Sox. Taking a shot on Pierzynski isn?t a bad idea, especially on a small contract like this one.
Chicago White Sox
* Activity v. Progress: What had been a rather quiet offseason for the White Sox suddenly turned busy in the last month as GM Kenny Williams signed several players and made one big trade. The new cast, in order of appearance:
Dustin Hermanson, late the closer of the San Francisco Giants, was signed to a two-year, $5.5MM deal, ostensibly to be the eighth-inning man. Hermanson enjoyed moderate success bouncing between the Giants? pen and rotation for the last year and a half, posting translated ERAs much closer to his more respectable seasons in Montreal than his more recent efforts in Boston and St. Louis. While his ability to step into the rotation in case of injury is a nice bonus, that kind of versatility would have to come with some major perks to justify his contract. Plucking quality pitchers on the cheap to pitch in set-up roles is a skill not yet mastered in a lot of front offices. Considering the short length of Hermanson's contract and its relative size, signing him is not a bad move.
Oakland?s own Lemony Snicket, Jermaine Dye, was signed to a two-year, $10.15M contract to replace the departed (and not offered arbitration) Magglio Ordonez. Dye will be cheaper than Ordonez, but he won?t provide nearly the same offensive punch that Ordonez did until his lost 2004. He hasn?t approached his impressive performances of 1999-2001 since shattering his shin in the 2001 postseason, and has battled through several injuries in the years since then. If the Sox can keep him healthy, he has a chance to post respectable numbers; at an offensive position like right field, however, that would make him league-average at best.
Four days after signing Dye, the Sox shipped one of their best remaining hitters, Carlos Lee, to Milwaukee for Scott Podsednik, Luis Vizcaino and, eventually, prospect Travis Hinton. Perhaps Williams has switched allegiances from Oakland to the Brewers. After calling the White Sox?s third-leading runs scored total in 2004 "deceiving," the Sox declared themselves to be on the speed'n'defense track with this move, hoping to duplicate the success of the Rockies teams that implemented the same plan a few years ago.
There?s just one problem: unless Vizcaino is the best fielding pitcher in history, this trade only solves half that equation. Podsednik?s 2003 success at the plate was out of line with his previous performance record and he regressed badly from it in 2004. How he managed to steal 70 bases with a .313 OBP is beyond us, but that impressive total no doubt masked his below-average offense and defense. If the Sox were strapped for cash or got some decent prospects in return, moving Lee could be defensible. That?s not the case here.
After shipping Lee out of town, the Sox re-signed Juan Uribe to a three-year, $9.75MM deal, rewarding him for an impressive 2004 in which he became one of the first hitters to benefit from leaving Colorado. With the shortstop not eligible for free agency for a few more seasons, the White Sox would have been better off giving Uribe one more year to prove that 2004 wasn?t a fluke, but the faults in a deal of this size are minimal.
Having been unable to lure Randy Johnson to the South Side, just before Christmas the Sox settled for Orlando Hernandez on a two-year, $8MM contract. A suspect 35 years old, Hernandez has been effective when he's been available, and the length and cost of his contract fits in with the lower tier of starting pitchers this off-season. If El Duque can manage 150-175 innings of reasonable pitching in 2005, the deal will be a bargain. If he breaks down, the Sox haven?t lost much.
To complete the puzzle, and still seeking to emulate the Twins, the Sox picked up discarded catcher A.J. Pierzynski for one year and $2.25MM. Pierzynski struggled last year in San Francisco, both with the bat and with his teammates, but Ben Davis is not the answer at catcher for the Sox. Taking a shot on Pierzynski isn?t a bad idea, especially on a small contract like this one.
