--The Roanoke Times
Time to break down the Virginia Tech-Duke matchup.
Tech's injury report is out and running backs Steven Peoples (ankle) and Deshawn McClease (illness) aren't on it. Receiver C.J. Carroll is doubtful with a foot injury again, which seems like it might bother him for a while.
Key matchups
Virginia Tech's offensive line vs. Duke's defensive front: The Hokies haven't exactly overwhelmed people up front this year, and last week was no exception. Tech ended up running for 181 yards, but it still wasn't very efficient with it, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. That's about in line with the Hokies' season-long average of 4.0 yards, which ranks 84th nationally. Justin Fuente this week said on his radio show that he's been underwhelmed with the play of the left side of the line, where veterans Yosuah Nijman and Wyatt Teller play. That should be a dominant duo and it hasn't been so far. Overall, Fuente wasn't pleased with the offensive intensity and toughness last week, something that starts up front. The group will need to be on its game this week, because Duke can make plays. The Blue Devils lead the ACC in tackles for a loss (66 for 255 yards) and are second to only Clemson in sacks (24), figures that put them second and tied for eighth nationally. Those numbers have waned a little bit during Duke's four-game losing streak against tougher competition, but this is a Blue Devils defense that can create some havoc if an offense isn't dialed in. That starts up front for Tech.
Duke QB Daniel Jones' rushing ability vs. Virginia Tech's tacklers: Jones has only one game in which he's rushed for more than 36 yards this year, a 108-yard, two-touchdown effort against Northwestern in Week 2, but his previous career-best was an 18-carry, 99-yard, two-touchdown day against the Hokies last year in Durham. That wasn't some isolated incident. He did nearly the same the next week in upsetting UNC. Nor is a mobile Duke quarterback foreign to Virginia Tech. Nobody needs much of a reminder to what Thomas Sirk did to the Hokies in a four-overtime game the last time the Blue Devils visited Lane Stadium, when he ran for 109 yards and the game-winning two-point conversion in overtime. Something about David Cutclifffe's system lends itself to quarterbacks running the ball effectively. And something about Bud Foster's defense has struggled at times in stopping it. The Hokies have done a good job of not letting too many QBs get loose this year, but Clemson's Kelly Bryant did have a 94-yard day in Tech's only loss. The Hokies need to be disciplined in their gaps, not overpursue in the pass rush and be sound in tackling to make sure Jones doesn't burn them again.
Quarterback clash
Virginia Tech's Josh Jackson vs. Duke's Daniel Jones: Jackson didn't have a huge game against North Carolina, although the situation didn't call for one either. He completed 10 of 20 passes for 132 yards and three touchdowns. It took both him and the offense a while to get going, but once they did, the Tar Heels were no match. His day was done midway through the third quarter, otherwise he would have put up monster stats. Still, he's been very good this year, leading the ACC in passer efficiency rating. Then there's this:
VT?s Josh Jackson on throws of 10+ yards downfield: 59% completions, 11 TD, 0 INT, 226.9 passer rating. All among best in Power 5.
Those aren't all deep balls, per se, but it does include them, in addition to an intermediate passing game. So Jackson's been able to open things up downfield pretty well this season.
On Duke's side, Jones has been in a sophomore slump. After completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 218.1 yards per game and 16 touchdowns to nine interceptions in his freshman year, he's completed only 54.5 percent of his passes this year, averaging 208.8 yards per game, with eight touchdowns and six interceptions. It hasn't helped that he's been besieged in the backfield. With Cutcliffe's scheme, Duke's usually among the leaders in the ACC in pass protection, but this year the Blue Devils have allowed 21 sacks in eight games. That's 2.63 per game, the highest mark in any season since Cutcliffe arrived in Durham and double what the Blue Devils were giving up two years ago. Jones is still a threat, as his 300-yard passing, 100-yard rushing, three-touchdown effort against Northwestern earlier this year indicates, but he has been a little mistake prone this year. Getting pressure will be a key.
Hokies in the spotlight
Tim Settle, defensive tackle: His fellow interior linemate Ricky Walker has gotten a lot of attention lately, and rightfully so, earning ACC d-lineman of the week honors against North Carolina for his fumble return for a touchdown and getting the No. 25 jersey this week. But Settle's been unblockable lately too, with seven tackles for a loss and two sacks the last three weeks. He had a game-high 3.5 tackles for a loss last week against UNC and has already surpassed his season total from last year. Opponents will have a tough time blocking both of these guys throughout a game, but at 335 pounds, Settle especially wears on you after a while.
Travon McMillian, running back: The running back with the best odds to have the biggest game against Duke remains McMillian, who ran for 45 yards last week and had a touchdown reception. He's averaging 4.9 yards per carry, tops of the backs who get in before late in the game. He ran for 72 yards and a TD at Duke last season.
Yosuah Nijman/Wyatt Teller, offensive linemen: Mentioned it before but it's worth repeating: this duo hasn't quite lived up to expectations this year. Nijman's been beaten off the edge several times the last two games against BC and UNC. Teller's been in short supply of the highlight-worthy pancakes that Tech fans have grown accustomed to.
Joey Slye, kicker: The line's still north of two touchdowns, so who knows if this will be close. But it's getting to the point of the season where a kick might decide a game. Slye missed from 47 last week, so he's still not completely dialed in, but he's 6-for-8 since missing a 27-yard chip shot against Old Dominion, with both misses from 45-plus.
Blue Devils in the spotlight
Joe Giles-Harris, linebacker: He leads the Blue Devils in tackles (75) and tackles for a loss (13.5) and is second on the team in sacks (3.5), so he's as productive as they come. In 20 career games, the redshirt sophomore from New York has 23 tackles for a loss, so he's more than just someone who jumps on the pile at the end of the play. He leads the ACC and tied for second nationally in TFLs. He had a career-high 15 tackles against Virginia a few weeks ago to earn ACC linebacker of the week honors.
Shaun Wilson, running back: He's Duke's leader in yardage, averaging 140.6 all-purpose yards per game. That's because of his 545 rushing yards, 5.5-yard average and five touchdowns, but also because he's an excellent kickoff returner who averages an ACC-best 25.9 yards per return.
T.J. Rahming, wide receiver: The Blue Devils always seem to have at least one standout receiver, and Rahming's the guy this year. He has 44 catches for 567 yards and a touchdown this season, nearly doubling the reception total and more than doubling the yardage total of any other receiver on the roster.
Byron Fields Jr., cornerback: A veteran in Duke secondary, the redshirt senior has a team-best three interceptions this season, two of which he's taken back for touchdowns, a big reason the Blue Devils are tied for the national lead with four defensive touchdowns this season. He has four touchdowns in his career.
Last word
This series has been as close as any Virginia Tech has played in lately, with both teams coming away with tight wins two times each in the last four matchups. Because of that, and because of Cutcliffe's coaching acumen, the possibility for another close game in what's supposed to be rainy weather Saturday night is quite possible. I was going to down the route of a closer-than-expected victory for the Hokies, but then I thought about some of the results this season just within the Coastal Division:
Virginia 28, Duke 21
Duke 27, North Carolina 17
Virginia 20, North Carolina 14
Pitt 24, Duke 17
Compare that to how Virginia Tech, Miami and Georgia Tech have fared against those four teams at the bottom of the division:
Miami 31, Duke 6
Georgia Tech 35, Pitt 17
Georgia Tech 33, North Carolina 7
Virginia Tech 59, North Carolina 7
It seems clear to me that there's a fairly large split between the contenders in the division (VT, GT, Miami) and the pretenders (UVa, Duke, UNC, Pitt). And I'm going to treat this prediction that way. Duke has lost four straight games in ACC play. The last three have been by seven points each, although they've all come against mediocre to bad competition -- Virginia, Pitt and, odd as it seems to type this, Florida State. The Blue Devils, oddly, given Cutcliffe's reputation, have been bitten by their offense this year, averaging 16.2 points in ACC play and the same number of yards per game as they did during a 4-8 season in 2016. That's not the best way to go into a matchup against Foster's defense.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, looked rested and ready in the UNC game last week. And while it took the offense a while to get cranked up, it did score in bunches once it did, ripping off touchdown drives of six of eight possessions at one point. I still think the Hokies are rested, using their starters for only two and a half quarters last week. Duke, meanwhile, has played eight straight games to start the year, with a bye on the horizon next week. Add all that together and I like the Hokies' chances of winning this one and winning it comfortably.
Time to break down the Virginia Tech-Duke matchup.
Tech's injury report is out and running backs Steven Peoples (ankle) and Deshawn McClease (illness) aren't on it. Receiver C.J. Carroll is doubtful with a foot injury again, which seems like it might bother him for a while.
Key matchups
Virginia Tech's offensive line vs. Duke's defensive front: The Hokies haven't exactly overwhelmed people up front this year, and last week was no exception. Tech ended up running for 181 yards, but it still wasn't very efficient with it, averaging 3.9 yards per carry. That's about in line with the Hokies' season-long average of 4.0 yards, which ranks 84th nationally. Justin Fuente this week said on his radio show that he's been underwhelmed with the play of the left side of the line, where veterans Yosuah Nijman and Wyatt Teller play. That should be a dominant duo and it hasn't been so far. Overall, Fuente wasn't pleased with the offensive intensity and toughness last week, something that starts up front. The group will need to be on its game this week, because Duke can make plays. The Blue Devils lead the ACC in tackles for a loss (66 for 255 yards) and are second to only Clemson in sacks (24), figures that put them second and tied for eighth nationally. Those numbers have waned a little bit during Duke's four-game losing streak against tougher competition, but this is a Blue Devils defense that can create some havoc if an offense isn't dialed in. That starts up front for Tech.
Duke QB Daniel Jones' rushing ability vs. Virginia Tech's tacklers: Jones has only one game in which he's rushed for more than 36 yards this year, a 108-yard, two-touchdown effort against Northwestern in Week 2, but his previous career-best was an 18-carry, 99-yard, two-touchdown day against the Hokies last year in Durham. That wasn't some isolated incident. He did nearly the same the next week in upsetting UNC. Nor is a mobile Duke quarterback foreign to Virginia Tech. Nobody needs much of a reminder to what Thomas Sirk did to the Hokies in a four-overtime game the last time the Blue Devils visited Lane Stadium, when he ran for 109 yards and the game-winning two-point conversion in overtime. Something about David Cutclifffe's system lends itself to quarterbacks running the ball effectively. And something about Bud Foster's defense has struggled at times in stopping it. The Hokies have done a good job of not letting too many QBs get loose this year, but Clemson's Kelly Bryant did have a 94-yard day in Tech's only loss. The Hokies need to be disciplined in their gaps, not overpursue in the pass rush and be sound in tackling to make sure Jones doesn't burn them again.
Quarterback clash
Virginia Tech's Josh Jackson vs. Duke's Daniel Jones: Jackson didn't have a huge game against North Carolina, although the situation didn't call for one either. He completed 10 of 20 passes for 132 yards and three touchdowns. It took both him and the offense a while to get going, but once they did, the Tar Heels were no match. His day was done midway through the third quarter, otherwise he would have put up monster stats. Still, he's been very good this year, leading the ACC in passer efficiency rating. Then there's this:
VT?s Josh Jackson on throws of 10+ yards downfield: 59% completions, 11 TD, 0 INT, 226.9 passer rating. All among best in Power 5.
Those aren't all deep balls, per se, but it does include them, in addition to an intermediate passing game. So Jackson's been able to open things up downfield pretty well this season.
On Duke's side, Jones has been in a sophomore slump. After completing 62.8 percent of his passes for 218.1 yards per game and 16 touchdowns to nine interceptions in his freshman year, he's completed only 54.5 percent of his passes this year, averaging 208.8 yards per game, with eight touchdowns and six interceptions. It hasn't helped that he's been besieged in the backfield. With Cutcliffe's scheme, Duke's usually among the leaders in the ACC in pass protection, but this year the Blue Devils have allowed 21 sacks in eight games. That's 2.63 per game, the highest mark in any season since Cutcliffe arrived in Durham and double what the Blue Devils were giving up two years ago. Jones is still a threat, as his 300-yard passing, 100-yard rushing, three-touchdown effort against Northwestern earlier this year indicates, but he has been a little mistake prone this year. Getting pressure will be a key.
Hokies in the spotlight
Tim Settle, defensive tackle: His fellow interior linemate Ricky Walker has gotten a lot of attention lately, and rightfully so, earning ACC d-lineman of the week honors against North Carolina for his fumble return for a touchdown and getting the No. 25 jersey this week. But Settle's been unblockable lately too, with seven tackles for a loss and two sacks the last three weeks. He had a game-high 3.5 tackles for a loss last week against UNC and has already surpassed his season total from last year. Opponents will have a tough time blocking both of these guys throughout a game, but at 335 pounds, Settle especially wears on you after a while.
Travon McMillian, running back: The running back with the best odds to have the biggest game against Duke remains McMillian, who ran for 45 yards last week and had a touchdown reception. He's averaging 4.9 yards per carry, tops of the backs who get in before late in the game. He ran for 72 yards and a TD at Duke last season.
Yosuah Nijman/Wyatt Teller, offensive linemen: Mentioned it before but it's worth repeating: this duo hasn't quite lived up to expectations this year. Nijman's been beaten off the edge several times the last two games against BC and UNC. Teller's been in short supply of the highlight-worthy pancakes that Tech fans have grown accustomed to.
Joey Slye, kicker: The line's still north of two touchdowns, so who knows if this will be close. But it's getting to the point of the season where a kick might decide a game. Slye missed from 47 last week, so he's still not completely dialed in, but he's 6-for-8 since missing a 27-yard chip shot against Old Dominion, with both misses from 45-plus.
Blue Devils in the spotlight
Joe Giles-Harris, linebacker: He leads the Blue Devils in tackles (75) and tackles for a loss (13.5) and is second on the team in sacks (3.5), so he's as productive as they come. In 20 career games, the redshirt sophomore from New York has 23 tackles for a loss, so he's more than just someone who jumps on the pile at the end of the play. He leads the ACC and tied for second nationally in TFLs. He had a career-high 15 tackles against Virginia a few weeks ago to earn ACC linebacker of the week honors.
Shaun Wilson, running back: He's Duke's leader in yardage, averaging 140.6 all-purpose yards per game. That's because of his 545 rushing yards, 5.5-yard average and five touchdowns, but also because he's an excellent kickoff returner who averages an ACC-best 25.9 yards per return.
T.J. Rahming, wide receiver: The Blue Devils always seem to have at least one standout receiver, and Rahming's the guy this year. He has 44 catches for 567 yards and a touchdown this season, nearly doubling the reception total and more than doubling the yardage total of any other receiver on the roster.
Byron Fields Jr., cornerback: A veteran in Duke secondary, the redshirt senior has a team-best three interceptions this season, two of which he's taken back for touchdowns, a big reason the Blue Devils are tied for the national lead with four defensive touchdowns this season. He has four touchdowns in his career.
Last word
This series has been as close as any Virginia Tech has played in lately, with both teams coming away with tight wins two times each in the last four matchups. Because of that, and because of Cutcliffe's coaching acumen, the possibility for another close game in what's supposed to be rainy weather Saturday night is quite possible. I was going to down the route of a closer-than-expected victory for the Hokies, but then I thought about some of the results this season just within the Coastal Division:
Virginia 28, Duke 21
Duke 27, North Carolina 17
Virginia 20, North Carolina 14
Pitt 24, Duke 17
Compare that to how Virginia Tech, Miami and Georgia Tech have fared against those four teams at the bottom of the division:
Miami 31, Duke 6
Georgia Tech 35, Pitt 17
Georgia Tech 33, North Carolina 7
Virginia Tech 59, North Carolina 7
It seems clear to me that there's a fairly large split between the contenders in the division (VT, GT, Miami) and the pretenders (UVa, Duke, UNC, Pitt). And I'm going to treat this prediction that way. Duke has lost four straight games in ACC play. The last three have been by seven points each, although they've all come against mediocre to bad competition -- Virginia, Pitt and, odd as it seems to type this, Florida State. The Blue Devils, oddly, given Cutcliffe's reputation, have been bitten by their offense this year, averaging 16.2 points in ACC play and the same number of yards per game as they did during a 4-8 season in 2016. That's not the best way to go into a matchup against Foster's defense.
Virginia Tech, meanwhile, looked rested and ready in the UNC game last week. And while it took the offense a while to get cranked up, it did score in bunches once it did, ripping off touchdown drives of six of eight possessions at one point. I still think the Hokies are rested, using their starters for only two and a half quarters last week. Duke, meanwhile, has played eight straight games to start the year, with a bye on the horizon next week. Add all that together and I like the Hokies' chances of winning this one and winning it comfortably.
