Aptitude is the horse to beat; finally running huge numbers in his last 2 after being a perenial runner-up in his 3YO year. He has won over the track, at the same distance, and with a 123 Beyer so he's legit. My only knock on him is his main competitors last time just ran like crap. A pair of huge longshots ended up running 2-3 behind him, although they were 10 lengths behind. Forget ALbert the Great; he's over the top. I think the Europeans may be overbet; the only one I like at all is Fantastic Light, who is at least bred to handle dirt (by Rahy). Guided Tour keeps getting better and better and being a Midwest horse, he will be unjustly ignored by snobbish East and West Coast bettors (I guess I'm showing my Midwest bias here). Guided Tour had the speed to stay with Balto Star and the finishing power to outkick Captain Steve and Brahms. Numerous Times is unbeaten but I'm guessing he'll go in the Mile. I think Tiznow may be overbet and past his peak. Racing writer Steve Davidowitz felt that longshot Include had a decent shot at hitting the board. He has the back numbers to do so. Likely pacesetters could be Gander, Orientate and Albert the Great. Should one or two scratch we could get a loose on the lead scenario.
Breeders Cup Classic
- Thread starter Valuist
- Start date
Great writeups Valuist. What do you think about Sakhee. Always hard to tell with first time American starters but he sure looks like the real deal over there. Only question in my mind is how he will handle the dirt. Any thoughts? At 8-1 looks like at least a tri play.
I hate him on the dirt. Andy Beyer wrote an interesting article the other day about European horses making their dirt debuts in the Breeders Cup. How the horses worked on dirt was irrelevant; their breeding seemed to be the biggest factor. Ironically, Fantastic Light had a good dirt pedigree (by Rahy) and the connections opt to leave him on the Turf and put Sakhee in the Classic. I also suspect Sakhee was pointing for the Arc, and may be over the top. Couple that w/a new surface and he's a tossout for me.
Guided Tour's record is impressive, and though its competition hasn't been awesome, I think it has a real shot here in a perhaps weaker than usual Classic field.
Include also looks to be a live longshot, assuming its recent weaker performances were geared to a big race here.
Include also looks to be a live longshot, assuming its recent weaker performances were geared to a big race here.
While Aptitude is certainly the horse to beat there are a few horses here that might have a shot. Aptitude is coming off to huge negative 2- thorograph numbers. The last race they feel he might not have been extended. However there are several horses that are capable such as Include which has run 6 consecutive 0's (again thorograph numbers) and Tiznow which has only run 6 races as a 4 year old with those numbers being 2,1,0, 2,0... so I am not sure what you mean by past his peak. He is on a nice downward pattern and not only could pair up a 0 but improve on that since a 0 was his best number as a 3 year old. Also according to the Thorograph "his last race was completely concealed due to spotting weight and racing outside... a new top is definitely possible." Also any move forward by Mucho Uno along with his weight advantage puts him in the picture. Great write-ups and good luck tomorrow.
