Bristol

boomer1

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is there any way jj doesn't win the championship? I see him at +100 to win it with kyle being the 2nd favorite at +350? any thoughts?
 

Old School

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the last 10 races[The Chase} have so many of the tracks he is best suited for that it takes bad luck for him to not lead the field.

that and Chad is simply the best ..
 

DeadPrez

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I see Kyle at +600. And remember that although Kyle didn't make the chase last year and that drastically reduces the pressure, Kyle scored the most points of anyone during the last 10 races of last year.

The Chase is about getting hot at the right time. As with anything new the 48 were head and shoulders above everyone else when it comes to the gen 6. But I think now that the series is in the 2nd half of the season and coming back to race tracks for the 2nd time that a few of these guys are starting to get it figured out.

Kenseth was hot but not at the right time. He's really fizzled out as of late. Kahne has been fast all year and I think he can be a real contender but they've never been close enough before to have the experience of dealing with the pressure in the past.

To me Penske, and in particular the #2, is laying in the weeds. Not only did they have to adjust to a new race car but also a new manufacturer and a new face with Logano. To me, for whatever it's worth, I think Keselowski at +1800 is worth a look. I think he's heating up at the right time and Wolfe and Brad K have been here before and prevailed. Logano has been fast for months now. His only bad finishes have been due to tire failure so that speaks well of the organization. They've overcome a point penalty and a set-up malfunction earlier this year in Texas and I think that they've regrouped and the #2 bunch will be in the mix come years end. Jimmie's odds are terrible at +100 but Brad's are pretty lofty for the defending champ at +1800. If he can grab a win here at Bristol, one of his best tracks, he could be off and running.

That being said, it's always, every year, JJ's championship to lose. But it only takes one mistake (not always of your own doing) to lose it. All year I've been thinking Jimmie will run away with it, been so fast everywhere he goes, but now I'm starting to wonder a little bit.
 

boomer1

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Wow I was just hoping for a yes or no,lol,thanks so much for all the info...very helpful...thx old school and prez...ill be looking for y'all's pics this weekend

Scott
 

DeadPrez

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Full card:

To win:

Brad +950

Mid range:

Gordon +1800
Logano +2150

Longshots:

Vickers +3000
Newman +3300
Biffle +6000

Matchups:

Gordon over Bowyer (-115)
Gordon over Junior (-140)
Gordon over Harvick (-145)
Montoya over McMurray (+115)
Montoya over Menard (+100)
Logano over Edwards (-130)
Newman over Edwards (+125)
Hamlin over Kurt (+160)
Hamlin over Bowyer (+125)

Happy race day!! It's Bristol baby!! Thunder valley!!
 

Old School

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NASCAR Picks for Bristol

by Brian Polking, Monday, August 19, 2013 8:13:04 PM CDT FFToolbox.com



Track Info:
Length: 0.533 miles
Shape: Oval
Type: Short
Location: Bristol, Tennessee
View Average Finishes



With just three races remaining before the Chase begins, the Cup Series returns to Bristol Motor Speedway this weekend. The half-mile bullring used to be one of the tougher tracks on the schedule because of all the bumping, banging and physical racing it took to get the front and stay there. These days, the short track is still tough, but for a different reason. Bristol has undergone two separate layout changes in recent years, and the preferred line has gone from the bottom of the surface to the top to somewhere in between. Needless to say the frequent changes have kept the teams guessing as far as setups are concerned, and while this weekend's night race at the track remains one of the more popular, it has certainly taken on a different feel.
From a fantasy standpoint, the changes made to Bristol are a double-edged sword. On one hand, moving the racing groove up the track a bit has made side-by-side racing possible and eliminated many of the wrecks that used to doom a fantasy lineup. On the flip side, the changes continue to shift the balance of power, and some of the drivers that were great on the original track configuration have struggled with the new layout and vice versa. In the long run, a calmer Bristol is a plus for fantasy owners, but in the meantime, owners should expect a few disappointments and surprises as drivers get a feel for the current track with the new Gen-6 car.




1. Kyle Busch, #18 Mars Brands/Interstate Batteries, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Busch has made Bristol his personal playground in recent years. His 9.8 average finish at the track is the second best among active drivers, and his five wins at Bristol since 2007 are the most in the series. Busch finished sixth at the track last August and ran second earlier this year, and he can carry a fantasy team in any format this weekend.

2. Brad Keselowski, #2 Miller Lite, Penske Racing [Yahoo Class A]

The defending series champ has become a fantasy stud at Bristol the past couple of years. In the last four races at the track, he has finished third or better three times. More importantly, Keselowski has a pair of wins during the stretch, including a victory in the night race in 2011.

3. Matt Kenseth, #20 Husky/Dollar General, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

He was battling for the lead at Bristol in the spring when he was caught up in a wreck triggered by Jeff Gordon. If not for the bad luck, Kenseth would have likely added to his impressive numbers at the bullring. He is a two-time winner at Bristol for his career, and he has six top-10s in his last eight starts at the track.

4. Clint Bowyer, #15 5-Hour Energy, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class A]

Since joining Michael Waltrip Racing in 2012, Bowyer has been next to unstoppable at short tracks. He has finished in the top 10 in all nine short track starts with MWR, including three finishes of seventh or better at Bristol. Bowyer has also reeled off five straight top-five finishes at short tracks overall, including back-to-back runner-up efforts.

5. Kasey Kahne, #5 Farmers Insurance/Quaker State, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

After notching his first-ever win at Bristol earlier this year, Kahne will try for the sweep at the short track this weekend. While the victory in the spring was his first at the track, it was just the latest in a string of solid runs. Kahne has finished 11th or better in five of his last six starts at Bristol, and he seems to be getting better.

6. Jimmie Johnson, #48 Lowe's/Kobalt Tools, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

Bristol actually gave Johnson some trouble early in his career, but he has been stout at the track lately. In his last nine starts at the track, he has piled up seven top-10 finishes. During the stretch, Johnson has one victory and has finished fourth or better five times, including a second-place run last summer.

7. Kurt Busch, #78 Furniture Row, Furniture Row Racing [Yahoo Class B]

There was a time when Busch was flat out dominant at Bristol, and he has been to victory lane at the track five times. Even though his last win came in 2006, he hasn't slowed down much. In his last 12 starts at Bristol, Busch has cracked the top 15 nine times. More importantly, he looked like his old dominant self at the track earlier this year when he finished fourth in his first Bristol start for Furniture Row Racing.

8. Brian Vickers, #55 Aaron's Dream Machine, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class B]

The part-time fantasy star is back behind the wheel of the No. 55 this weekend, and in his last three starts at Bristol with MWR, he has three finishes of eighth or better. Vickers actually finished fourth at the track last summer, and he was a major contender for the win. A repeat performance is a real possibility, and fantasy owners should definitely take advantage.

9. Dale Earnhardt, Jr., #88 National Guard/Diet Mountain Dew, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

Although his last top-five finish at Bristol came in 2008, Junior has been one of the most consistent performers at the track. In fact, his 9.3 average finish in the last 20 races at Bristol is the best in the series; and he has finished inside the top 20 in every race during the stretch. He might not win this weekend, but fantasy owners won't find a safer option.

10. Martin Truex, Jr., #56 NAPA Auto Parts, Michael Waltrip Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Truex has definitely figured something out at Bristol. After posting mediocre numbers at the track throughout his career, he has reeled off four straight top-12 finishes. During the stretch, he has two top-three finishes, so Truex offers plenty of upside this weekend.

11. Jeff Gordon, #24 Drive to End Hunger/Axalta, Hendrick Motorsports [Yahoo Class A]

He was leading at Bristol in March when a cut tire sent him slamming into the wall, and he has actually had a few strong cars at the track the past two years. Gordon has two third-place finishes in his last four starts at Bristol, and he led the most laps in the August race in 2011. His luck hasn't been great for much of the season, but a top-five run isn't out of the question this weekend.

12. Kevin Harvick, #29 Budweiser/Rheem, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class A]

While he has never been as dominant at Bristol since the layout was changed, Harvick has remained a dependable option at the track. He has six top-15s in his last seven starts at Bristol, including three straight. Harvick probably isn't the best option in Yahoo! leagues, but he can certainly be counted on for a solid run.
 

Old School

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NASCAR Picks for Bristol

by Brian Polking, Monday, August 19, 2013 8:13:04 PM CDT FFToolbox.com





13. Greg Biffle, #16 3M/Bondo, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Although his 12.5 average finish in the last 20 races at Bristol is the fifth-best in the series, Biffle hasn't been performing up to his typical standards at the track lately. He has failed to crack the top 10 in his last four starts at Bristol and has posted an 18.5 average finish during the stretch.

14. Ryan Newman, #39 Quicken Loans/Haas Automation, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class B]

In the past 10 races at Bristol, Newman has been as consistent as just about any driver out there. He has eight finishes of 12th or better during the stretch and has finished outside the top 20 only once. Granted, Newman doesn't have any top-five finishes during the same 10 races. While he may not carry a team, he should make a solid addition to fantasy rosters.

15. Carl Edwards, #99 Fastenal/Aflac/UPS/Subway, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class B]

With two wins under the lights, Edwards is no stranger to winning the summer race at Bristol. However, he has struggled at the track since the start of last year, posting a 26.3 average finish in three starts at Bristol. His overall record at the track remains impressive, but the last three races make him a bit of a risk this weekend.

16. Paul Menard, #27 Menards, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

As far as sleeper options go this weekend, Menard may be the safest. After all, he has finished in the top 10 in four of his last five starts at Bristol, including three straight. Keep in mind that only two other drivers have finished in the top 10 in the last three races at the track.

17. Denny Hamlin, #11 FedEx, Joe Gibbs Racing [Yahoo Class A]

While he is the defending winner of this weekend's race, Hamlin has done little to inspire the confidence of fantasy owners lately. He has been mired in a terrible slump, and when the series visited Bristol in March, he finished 23rd. Hamlin just isn't performing at the level fantasy owners are used to, and his value has plummeted, especially in Yahoo! leagues.

18. Mark Martin, #14 Bass Pro Shops/Mobil 1, Stewart-Haas Racing [Yahoo Class B]

With Tony Stewart out the remainder of the year, Martin will be in the No. 14 for 12 of the final 13 races, beginning this weekend at Bristol. The veteran hasn't raced at the track since 2011, and in his last six starts at the track, he has three top-12 finishes and three finishes outside the top 20. Martin certainly has top-15 potential this weekend, but fantasy owners may want to let him get his feet wet with his new team before adding him to rosters.

19. Joey Logano, #22 Shell-Pennzoil, Penske Racing [Yahoo Class B]

The good news is that Logano is definitely taking baby steps in the right direction at Bristol, and he has finished in the top 20 in his last four starts at the track. The bad news is that he only has one top-10 during the stretch, and he finished an unimpressive 17th at the track earlier this year. Logano has potential, but he just hasn't shown enough consistency or upside at the track to be considered a great fantasy play this weekend.

20. Jamie McMurray, #1 McDonald's/Cessna, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Bristol has been one of the few tracks where McMurray has been able to put up consistent results the past couple of years. In fact, he has finished 11th or better in six of his last eight starts at the bullring. McMurray also has three top-10s in his last four Bristol starts, so he has plenty of value as a sleeper pick this weekend.

21. Jeff Burton, #31 Caterpillar/Cheerios, Richard Childress Racing [Yahoo Class B]

Burton has been involved in wrecks in his last two starts at Bristol, but he has had much better cars than his two finishes outside the top 30 indicate. After all, he won at the track in 2008, and he has finished in the top 20 in seven of his last nine starts. Burton doesn't have a ton of upside, but he can land in the top 20 this weekend.

22. Marcos Ambrose, #9 Stanley/Dewalt Power Tools, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

The bullring has been one of Ambrose's best oval tracks, and Bristol has definitely been his best short track. In eight starts at Bristol, he has six top-20 finishes, include five top-15s. Ambrose actually finished fifth at the track last August, so he is a potentially productive sleeper option for owners willing to gamble a bit.

23. Juan Montoya, #42 Target, Earnhardt Ganassi Racing [Yahoo Class B]

In typical Montoya fashion he has been up and down at Bristol throughout his career. That being said, he does have two top-15s in his last three starts at the track, and Earnhardt Ganassi Racing has had a lot of success at Bristol lately. Fantasy owners could hit it big with Montoya this weekend, but his EGR teammate Jamie McMurray is a bit of a safer pick.

24. Ricky Stenhouse Jr., #17 Best Buy/Valvoline/Zest, Roush Fenway Racing [Yahoo Class C]

With only one Cup start at Bristol under his belt, it is tough to know what to expect out of Stenhouse this weekend. On the plus side, he did manage a 16th-place finish at the track in March. However, Roush Fenway Racing as a whole has been tailing off at Bristol, so Stenhouse may have already hit his ceiling. A regression this weekend wouldn't be a surprise.
 

Old School

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25. Aric Almirola, #43 Smithfield Foods, Richard Petty Motorsports [Yahoo Class B]

Almirola actually picked up a top-10 at Bristol in just his second career start at the track, but his tendency to find serious trouble curbs his fantasy value. In eight starts at Bristol, he has finished outside the top 30 on five occasions. At the end of the day, the potential he does have is outweighed by his 27.8 average finish.
26. Casey Mears, #13 GEICO, Germain Racing [Yahoo Class C]

He has been unspectacular at Bristol, but Mears probably has the most upside of any of the deep sleepers. He has reeled off four straight top-25 finishes at the track, and earlier this year, he managed a top-15 finish. Another top-15 might be asking a bit much, but Mears could finish around the top 20.

27. Ryan Truex, #51 Phoenix Construction, Phoenix Racing [Yahoo Class C]

A broken collarbone and the sale of Phoenix Racing have been delaying his debut, but Truex is scheduled to drive the No. 51 this weekend at Bristol. Considering he has never made a Cup start, he is a complete wild card from a fantasy standpoint. However, a talented young driver looking to prove himself does make an intriguing sleeper play in deeper leagues.

28. David Ragan, #34 CSX Transportation/Peanut Patch, Front Row Motorsports [Yahoo Class C]

Although his numbers at Bristol have slipped a bit since joining Front Row Motorsports, he still has some potential in deeper leagues. Ragan has finished in three of his four starts at the short track with his new team, including a 21st-place run earlier this year. His upside is very limited, but a top-25 should be possible.

29. David Gilliland, #38 Love's Travel Stops/A&W Restaurants, Front Row Motorsports [Yahoo Class C]

Gilliland isn't going to do anything spectacular this weekend, but he has finished in the top 30 in his last seven starts at Bristol. He has also cracked the top 25 in his last two starts. At the very least, Gilliland has shown he can stay out of trouble and finish in the top 30.

30. David Stremme, #30 Swan Energy/Nutrition 53, Swan Racing [Yahoo Class C]

After three straight disastrous starts at Bristol, Stremme came out of nowhere to finish 20th in March. A similar performance this weekend seems like a longshot, but his solid run earlier this year is enough to earn him the final spot in this week's rankings.
 

kickserv

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Kyle Busch to win Irwin Tools Night Race at 6-1

Matt Kenseth to win Irwin Tools Night Race at 8.5-1
 
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