British Open Snooker

[crookycymru]

I acknowledge that few people will be interested in this thread, but posting my plays here as a way to accurately calculate my profits on each tournament, and hopefully make any readers some cash in the meantime.

A sport that is very profitable for me, so feel free to play along.



Saturday 8th November

Starting in opposing a player who has a major confidence problem. Mark King threatened to quit the sport at the end of last seasons World Championship, but has come back this season to try and reignite his career. He perhaps has the right to feel like he has the world on his shoulders, as he started this season in blowing a 3-0 lead before losing to Barry Hawkins in the LG Cup, and then crashing 5-4 to David Roe in last weeks European Open qualifiers.
He desperately needs a run of good fortune, but might not find much sympathy from Barry Pinches. He has won five of his six matches this season, and last week beat talented players Shokat Ali and Rob Milkins in the European qualifiers with something to spare.

2 Points Barry Pinches to beat Mark King at 5/6 Generally

Something of an enigma that former ranking event winner Dominic Dale has fallen away in great style. He did nothing last season, and has began this season in the same way. In his two matches to date, he has scored less points than the British at a Eurovision song contest, in losing 5-0 to Gerrard Greene, and Stephen Macguire in event qualifiers.
Patrick Wallace is a more reliable player, who is on the fringe of the bigtime. He started the season in spectacular style, but has lost his last three matches. However, taking into account two of losses was to Jimmy White and the promising Stephen Macguire, means the Irishmans form certainly holds up a lot better then that of the Welshmans.

2 Points Patrick Wallace to beat Dominic Dale at 4/7 Generally

Really like this one strongly. Mark Selby has hardly been in action this term, and has lost both his matches to mediocre opposition.
He faces Scot Stephen Macguire tomorrow, and will find him to be top drawer opposition. After losing the season opener to Patrick Wallace, he has won four matches on the spin, including the scalps of Patrick Wallace (5-2), and Dominic Dale (5-0) only last week.

3 Points Stephen Macguire to beat Mark Selby at 1/1 with SuperOdds

 

[crookycymru]

Adding another for Saturday and have posted Sundays picks, as I wont be around this weekend to post.

I was hoping to bet this in a parlay, but nothing else on the card that fits in well enough, so will take the short price favourite for a rare change (not a smart move in betting snooker).

A big step up in class for Nick Dyson who has hardly set the world alight with his performances in qualifiers this season. Has won just two of his five matches to date, and has not played anybody near the quality of Chris Small.
The Scot made a brave defence of his LG Cup title last month, before going out to a rejuvinated John Parrott. However, Small was back in action last week in European Open qualifying and beat Michael Judge with ease. Should be a fairly straightforward opener in the British Open for Small.

3 Points Chris Small to beat Nick Dyson at 4/9 with SportingBet

 

[cameroncrazie]

Count me in for one crooky. If your picks are half as profitable as your rugby picks then we are in for some fun. These are my first snooker bets - maybe beginner's luck will be on our side!!!

 

[crookycymru]

Sunday 9th November

Opening Sundays action with a bet on a underdog, that may well take a lot of firms by surprise. On the surface, you would give unknown Thomas Ford no chance against Ian McCulloch. However, look further, and there are reasons for a upset. Ian McCulloch has lost both matches this season, winning only three frames in the process. This is obviously his best chance of opening his account for the season, but it wont be easy against Leicester's Thomas Ford.
Ford has been very busy in qualifying this season, and as he is such a rookie, he has had to play a lot of matches to reach the latter stages of qualifying. However, this qualification into a ranking even will be a huge boost, and he wont want to waste his chance of picking up some crucial ranking points. Winning eight of eleven matches so far, is a good return, all be it against poor opposition. However, he did beat Shaun Murphy over sixteen frames recently, and will find McCulloch a little easier over a best of nine.

1 Point Thomas Ford to beat Ian McCulloch at 6/4 with WilliamHill

Michael Holt had a superb run in the LG Cup last month, reaching the quarter finals, including wins over Joe Swail, Stephen Hendry and Marco Fu. He has continued that form into UK and Euro qualifying with wins over Rod Lawler and Dave Finbow.
Anthony Hamilton lost his first match in the LG Cup to Alfie Burden, and has only played once since.
All systems go then to lump on Michael Holt??? Wait......Hamilton's other match was only last week, and wait for it......he beat Holt 5-2 in European Open qualifying. Still a good chance for Holt to gain revenge, but to small stakes only as a result of last weeks scoreline.

1 Point Michael Holt to beat Anthony Hamilton at 1/1 with SportingBet

Taking on what is a very average player in Michael Judge. Judge has won three of six matches, but perhaps notably has failed when up against any sort of quality. Joe Perry, Rod McLeod and Chris Small have all beaten him in the last two months, and he is facing a top drawer opponent in Robin Hull.
The player from Finland was easily beaten by Mark Williams in the LG Cup, which was no disgrace as the Welshman went on to win the tournament outright. He was in superb form last week, when beating Stuart Bingham 5-1 in the Euro qualifiers. He notched breaks of 101, 92, 108 and 88 in that victory, and a repeat of that kind of form will be far too much for the likes of Michael Judge.

4 Points Robin Hull to beat Michael Judge at 18/25 with SportsInteraction

Finishing up on Sunday with a bet on one of snookers most boring players. If you have never watched snooker before, then dont make a Fergal O'Brien match your first.
The Irishman is a safety obsessed player, but at his best, can beat a lot of the worlds top players, and has done so in the past. After a couple of years out of the limelight, he is slowly showing signs that he is getting back into form. He is a former winner of this event, and after beating an in form John Parrott last week, he will fancy his chances of getting this campaign off in the right way.
At his best, he is more than capable of beating the likes of Anthony Davies who has lost both of his matches this season against opposition below the quality of O'Brien.

2 Points Fergal O'Brien to beat Anthony Davies at 8/11 with Bet365

 

[crookycymru]

Mark King (Eng) bt Barry Pinches (Eng) 5-0
Mark Davis (Eng) bt Robert Milkins (Eng) 5-3
Nick Dyson (Eng) bt Chris Small (Scot) 5-3
Marco Fu (HK) bt Barry Hawkins (Eng) 5-4
Stephen Maguire (Scot) bt Mark Selby (Eng) 5-3
Dominic Dale (Wal) bt Patrick Wallace (N Ire) 5-2
Shaun Murphy (Eng) bt Dave Harold (Eng) 5-1
Andy Hicks (Eng) bt John Parrott (Eng) 5-4
Gerard Greene (N Ire) bt Ali Carter (Eng) 5-1
Fergal O'Brien (Rep Ire) bt Anthony Davies (Wal) 5-2
Tom Ford (Eng) bt Ian McCulloch (Eng) 5-3
Ricky Walden (Eng) bt Drew Henry (Scot) 5-3
Michael Holt (Eng) bt Anthony Hamilton (Eng) 5-2
Tony Drago (Mal) bt Nigel Bond (Eng) 5-2
Joe Swail (N Ire) bt Stuart Bingham (Eng) 5-1
Michael Judge (Rep Ire) bt Robin Hull (Fin) 5-1

Tough start to this tournament. A bad day on Saturday was nearly followed by a 4-0 sweep today, but Robin Hull got thrashed by Michael Judge, which left a 3-1 day barely in profit.

British Open :

4-4 (50%) -4.05 Units (-?405 Calculated to a ?100 Unit Stake)

 

[crookycymru]

Monday 10th November

Will begin by taking on a world class player in Stephen Lee. He will face a tough match here, and would have preferred something a little easier to get his new season off to winning ways. Marco Fu has been at the table a lot recently, and may represent a bit of value playing against a cold player, who has had little action.

1 Point Marco Fu to beat Stephen Lee at 11/8

Taking a parlay today. Backing David Gray to get his campaign off to a good start against Nick Dyson. Dyson is not a top class player, and beat a poor performing Chris Small to get to this stage. Gray lost out in a decider against Marco Fu in the LG Cup, and will target this match to get off the mark.
Secondly, banking on Matthew Stevens, to continue his LG Cup form, which was world class to say the least. He is up against a more confident Mark King, but it has been a long time since King has beat a player of this quality.

2 Point Double Matthew Stevens and David Gray at 1/2 and 4/11 with Victor Chandler

 

[crookycymru]

Tuesday 11th November

Starting by siding again with a player who has had a lot of table time against a player who has had only eight frames of competitive snooker this season.
I have already staed in this column, that Fergal O'Brien is starting to show the signs of the player that was in the world top 16 two seasons ago. Given the form he has shown this season to date, he can make big strides to reclaiming his place amongst the elite. He has now won five matches on the trot, and easily beat Anthony Davies on Sunday morning.
Graeme Dott is probably the best player he has faced to date this season, but after a layoff of a month since he lost 5-3 to Ali Carter in the LG Cup, you would have to feel that the Scot is vulnerable.

2 Points Fergal O'Brien to beat Graeme Dott at 5/4 with PaddyPower

Taking another parlay tomorrow. Will begin with Ken Doherty over Gerrard Greene. Not huge confidence behind this one, as Greene is actually playing well this season. He looked impressive in beating Ali Carter 5-1 on Sunday, but it is a big step up in class in facing Ken Doherty, who finished last season as runner up in the World Championships, and then started this season where he left off by getting to the LG Cup semi final. He beat Greene 5-2 in that event, and a repeat is possible here.
Putting Doherty in with Jimmy White. The crowd favourite is not the player he once was, but one feels he should have too much class for Tony Drago. Drago has been playing a lot of pool this summer, while Jimmy looked like he had put a lot of practice in on the snooker table, when losing in a decider to Ken Doherty in last months LG Cup. To reclaim his place in the elite sixteen, Jimmy White will have to win these matches gainst the lower ranked players, where ranking points are invaluable.

1 Point Double Ken Doherty and Jimmy White at 4/9 and 8/13 with PaddyPower

 

[crookycymru]

Wednesday 12th November

Bet of the day tomorrow goes to another Irishman who is showing signs he could be approaching something near his best form. Joe Swail has only played three matches this season, but after losing to Michael Holt in the LG Cup, he has beat Barry Hawkins 5-3, and easily accounted for Stuart Bingham here on Sunday. The Hawkins form certainly holds up well, as he has caused problems for some very good players this season.
Admittedly, Swail is facing one of the games legends in Steve Davis, but Davis is well past his best now. He has spent a large part of the summer playing pool, and staying faithful to his TV duties. Davis has played just one competitive match, losing 5-4 to Shaun Murphy in the LG Cup, having been 4-2 up in the match.
With Swail craving ranking points, and at odds against he is a value bet.

2 Points Joe Swail to beat Steve Davis at 11/10 with Bet365

Siding with my angle here, of a player who has had a lot of snooker versus a player with next to no competitive snooker this season.
I always get the feeling these days with Peter Ebdon, that having won the World Championships, lacks the motivation to win these matches at the smaller tournaments. Mark Williams experienced a similar phase after winning the top title, until he realised he was drifting down the rankings. Until I see a drastic improvement in Ebdons form I will continue to oppose him.
Ricky Walden is no stranger to the table having played thirteen matches alread this term. With the scalps of Darren Morgan, James Wattana, and Drew Henry already to his name, he may well add Peter Ebdon to that list today.

1 Point Ricky Walden to beat Peter Ebdon at 5/2 with Bet365

 

[cameroncrazie]

crooky - I haven't been able to follow your snooker picks much. How have you been doing?

 

[crookycymru]

Adding another for this evening. I watched both these players play the other night, and while Stephen Lee impressed in stages, Marco Fu was below par and would surely have given him a tougher game. Lee was superb before the interval, but gave Fu plenty of chances later in the match.
Tony Drago commented last night, how he is taking a fraction of a second longer about his shots, and it seems to be working. Lokking dead at 2-0 against Jimmy he came out to win five frames on the trot, and played some superb snooker in the process. I expect Lee to give Drago chances tonight, and if he can be as ruthless as last night, an upset is on the cards.

1 Point Tony Drago to beat Stephen Lee at 5/2 with BlueSquare

 

[crookycymru]

Cameron,

I will update my record after tonight, as the second round matches end tonight. I had a bad day on Saturday which put me on the back foot, but have been in profit every day since. Closing in on a profit for the tournament outright now.

Hopefully Drago will ensure that!

 

[crookycymru]

Round two

Paul Hunter (Eng) bt Murphy 5-2
Quinten Hann (Aus) bt Hicks 5-3
David Gray (Eng) bt Dyson 5-2
Ronnie O'Sullivan (Eng) bt Maguire 5-3
Matthew Stevens (Wal) bt King 5-1
Stephen Lee (Eng) bt Fu 5-2
Greene bt Ken Doherty (Rep of Ire) 5-2
Stephen Hendry (Scot) bt Dale 5-2
M Davis bt Alan McManus (Scot) 5-4
Drago bt Jimmy White (Eng) 5-2
Joe Perry (Eng) bt Ford 5-1
O'Brien bt Graeme Dott (Scot) 5-4
John Higgins (Scot) bt Judge 5-1
Swail v Steve Davis (Eng) 5-3
Peter Ebdon (Eng) bt Walden 5-2
Mark Williams (Wal) bt Holt 5-2


British Open :

7-8 (47%) -1.26 Units (-?126 Calculated to a ?100 Unit Stake)

Frustrating sort of tournament. Would be well up had a couple of the value plays won. My bigger point bets are winning, but the outsiders I am backing are not winning as yet.

However, very confident I will be in profit by the weekend.

 

[crookycymru]

Thursday 13th November

Siding with very much a in form player today. Gerrard Greene caused the upset of the tournament in the last round defeating Ken Doherty with breaks of 85, 69, 74 and 78, and although Doherty knocked in two centuries, he did not get a look in. In his match previous to that, he beat Ali Carter 5-1 with another four breaks of sixty plus, and looks to be carrying the type of form that can beat Joe Swail.
Swail struggled to victory over Steve Davis yesterday with a top break of just 41. That form wont be good enough to beat Gerrard Greene, and with the Ulsterman already admitting he is still low on confidence, he looks vulnerable today.

3 Points Gerrard Greene to beat Joe Swail at 4/6 with SkyBet

Again siding with a player who looks bang in form and in with a big chance of lifiting titles this season.
I watched Matthew Stevens destroy Mark King the other night, and he looks to be in the form that has netted hima B + H Masters title, and two World Final spots. He is deadly around the black ball, and is playing the kind of snooker that kills off your opponent with one visit.
With Peter Ebdon low on confidence, having struggled in a marathon match only yesterday afternoon, there is no option but to side with the better player here.

3 Points Matthew Stevens to beat Peter Ebdon at 4/6 with PaddyPower

 

[crookycymru]

Friday 14th November

Quarter finals day and starting with a bet on one of the games most in form players. I was hoping for a better price on John Higgins, but odds compilers are not blind, and know the kind of form he is in. Only Mark Williams could beat him in the LG Cup, and he has brought that form with him to the British Open, and produced some phenomenal break building.
I still think Stephen Hendry is trying to get to his grips with his new cue. It is all very well whitewashing a very poor Joe Perry 5-0, but this is a huge step up in class, and is his hardest match to date.

2 Points John Higgins to beat Stephen Hendry at 3/5 with SuperOdds

Going to put Higgins in a afternoon double with Mark Williams. I dont like opposing Matthew Stevens, but the kind of form he produced last night in beating Peter Ebdon wont be enough to beat Mark Williams. Both Stevens match and Williams match produced a lot of kicks, but Williams is looking untouchable, and I feel Stevens might just fall short again today.

1 Point Double John Higgins and Mark Williams at 3/5 and 9/20 with SuperOdds

Big value bet next with Gerrard Greene in action. His kind of form this season is certainly worthy of a top sixteen place at the end of the season. He enters this match with Ronnie O'Sullivan in world class form, having beaten Ken Doherty, Joe Swail and Ali Carter with something to spare. Providing he is not overawed by playing O'Sullivan, he has to be in with a good shout of a upset.
Ronnie himself appears not to be in the best frame of mind. He is still criticising his game, and was flattered by the scoreline in yesterdays victory over Quinten Hann.

1 Point Gerrard Greene to beat Ronnie O'Sullivan at 57/20 with SuperOdds

Finishing a busy day of snooker action with another value bet. At their best, Stephen Lee is probably still a better player than Paul Hunter. He has a cue action to die for, and at his best is a very good bet at this price. He is a little inconsistent, but beat a in form Tony Drago 5-0, and beat Marco Fu 5-2. They are both classy opposition, and now he is in the full swing of the tournament, with a couple of matches under his belt, he will be looking to produce what he is capable of.
Paul Hunter is another world class player, who has strong claims of winning this title, but he does not deserve to be such a strong favourite in this match, and is overpriced.

1 Point Stephen Lee to beat Paul Hunter at 7/5 with SuperOdds

 

[crookycymru]

Last 16

Hunter bt Gray 5-3
Lee bt Drago 5-0
O'Sullivan bt Hann 5-1
Higgins bt Davis 5-2
Greene bt Swail 5-1
Hendry bt Perry 5-0
Williams bt O'Brien 5-2
Stevens bt Ebdon 5-3

Quarter-finals

O'Sullivan bt Greene 5-4
Lee bt Hunter 5-3
Stevens bt Williams 5-1
Hendry bt Higgins 5-4


As frustrating a days punting as they come. A 1-3 day could easily have been a 3-1 day with cracking profits.

I will have nightmares about the Gerrard Greene match tonight. I thought Ronnie had the run of the cloth all match, and to cap it all, Greene looks like clearing up in the decider, then goes in off allowing Ronnie to clean up.

A similar scenario tonight in John Higgins' match, but in fairness Hendry was class, so I can accept this loser without too many complaints.

Only bright light about the day (apart from Stephen Lee's win) is Matthew Stevens beating Mark Williams. Although I had Williams in my double, I have backed Stevens outiright at a big price. His biggest challenge is facing him tomorrow, in taking on Stephen Hendry at his best.

 

[crookycymru]

For tomorrow, I will continue to oppose Ronnie O'Sullivan. Easy to oppose him given the value Stephen Lee offers in the early lines I have seen.
I feel Ronnie has been riding his luck all week, and he may well fall short against Stephen Lee, who is looking back to his best, after reuniting with his old coach.

2 Points Stephen Lee to beat Ronnie O'Sullivan

Will stall on a bet in the Matthew Stevens-Stephen Hendry match. I lean strongly towards backing Hendry, but both players are in top form. Given I have backed Stevens outright, it might not be so bad if I bet Hendry, only to lose. However, going to give it more thought and will update tomorrow night.

 

[crookycymru]

Adding

3 Points Stephen Hendry to beat Matthew Stevens at 8/11

 

[crookycymru]

Will continue to oppose Ronnie, who met a very poor Stephen Lee yesterday.

2 Points Stephen Hendry to beat Ronnie O'Sullivan at 11/10 Generally

 

[crookycymru]

Quarter-finals

O'Sullivan bt Greene 5-4
Lee bt Hunter 5-3
Stevens bt Williams 5-1
Hendry bt Higgins 5-4

Semi-finals

O'Sullivan bt Lee 6-2
Hendry bt Stevens 6-3

Final

Hendry bt O'Sullivan 9-6


End of the tournament and finally end in profit. Barring a few matches, and a little more luck, it could easily have been a few units more, but I never got the feeling that I was on top at any point this week, so I am pleased to have made a profit.

From a spectators point of view, it was top quality snooker all week, and the standard played in the final will go down as some of the best snooker ever played.

Cant wait for the UK Championships now, which start on Tuesday. Will post all picks on Madjacks, and hopefully I will end up quite a bit more than in this tournament.

2003 British Open Final Record :

12-12 (50%) +2.52 Units (+?252 Calculated to a ?100 Unit Stake)

 

[hoss]

Good work, Crooky

finally got the Rocket beat!!

Look forward to reading the next installment

hoss