- Mar 19, 2006
- 38,712
- 599
- 113
- 75
Crowded bubble puts emphasis on building a late-season surge
Updated 2/11/2007 10:56 PM ET
By Tim Gardner, USA TODAY
To call this year's NCAA Tournament bubble "crowded" is an understatement of immense proportions.
With just one month until Selection Sunday, teams are in search of big wins, eye-catching performances and that one final hot streak in hopes of impressing the selection committee.
But there really aren't many succeeding in those efforts. The resumes of some teams on the bubble are not what we're accustomed to seeing from teams vying for a tournament berth.
A few examples:
? Sure, Maryland beat Duke on Sunday. But that still leaves the Terps at 4-6 in ACC play, which truly isn't enough for them to feel safe about their chances. And they have a rough schedule to finish the season.
? After losing four of six games in January, Alabama looked like it has righted the ship by reeling off three straight conference wins. But a weekend loss at Ole Miss plants the Tide right back where they were ? firmly on the bubble.
On the other side of things is West Virginia.
The Mountaineers held off UCLA on Saturday and have played their way into a bid. And who would have thought that after all that John Beilein's squad lost from last year's team. Though they still have games remaining at Georgetown and at Pittsburgh, the Mountaineers' 7-4 mark away from home ? including wins over Villanova and the Bruins ? should be enough at this point for them to feel comfortable.
Then we get to the mid-majors. While the Missouri Valley is once again strong, it's not going to get the four bids it received last season. Three seems more like it with Southern Illinois (a lock), Creighton and Missouri State.
But while the MVC might be down a bit, the Colonial Athletic Association is once again looking strong. Drexel, Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth and Hofstra (a stretch) all have tourney aspirations. I expect to see the Colonial get more than one bid, but it will obviously depend on who wins the league crown and what the others do from here on out.
Meanwhile, the Pac-10 looks strong with six teams currently in the field. No, Arizona's struggles are not cause for concern. The Wildcats play the nation's toughest schedule and are still sitting pretty in the RPI at No. 7.
And here's hoping Texas doesn't fall apart and miss out on a tourney bid. Can you imagine freshman phenom Kevin Durant not getting a chance to shine on the biggest stage in college hoops? Me, either. It just wouldn't be right.
Ultimately, bid selection will come down to who can impress in the final month of the season. Since many teams' overall package looks similar, who stands out in the final month could make all the difference.
For reference, all RPI rankings used in Bubble Tracker are based on those at collegerpi.com. These rankings mirror those the selection committee will use to pick the field, which can be found here. Also, non-Division I wins and losses are not counted toward a team's record:
In position for a bid
(Through Sunday's games)
America East (1) ACC (1) Atlantic 10 (1) Atlantic Sun (1)
Vermont North Carolina UMass East Tenn. State
Big East (2) Big Sky (1) Big South (1) Big Ten (2)
Pittsburgh
Marquette Weber State Winthrop * Ohio State
Wisconsin
Big 12 (2) Big West (1) Colonial (1) C-USA (1)
Texas A&M
Kansas Long Beach VCU * Memphis
Horizon (1) Ivy (1) MAAC (1) MAC (1)
Butler Pennsylvania Marist Akron
Mid-Continent (1) MEAC (1) Missouri Valley (1) Mountain West (2)
Oral Roberts Delaware State Southern Illinois * BYU
Air Force
Northeast (1) Ohio Valley (1) Pac-10 (3) Patriot (1)
Central Connecticut Austin Peay UCLA
Washington State
Oregon Holy Cross
SEC (2) SWAC (1) Southern (1) Southland (1)
Florida
Kentucky Jackson State Davidson Texas A&M - Corpus Christi
Sun Belt (1) WAC (1) West Coast (1)
South Alabama Nevada Gonzaga
Notes:
- Conference leaders at time of publishing are in RED.
- Teams with an asterisk (*) are also listed below (but not given IN or OUT status) because if they weren't leading the conference, they would still have a resume worthy of at-large consideration.
The above 'locks' total 38, leaving us with 27 spots to fill. And there are much more than 27 teams vying for those spots ...
Those battling for the Big Dance
(click on school name to see team report)
ACC
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Boston College 18-6 (9-2); 28 6-3 vs. Top 50; 8-2 in last 10 games Loss to Duquesne (158) IN
Thought the Eagles would falter once Sean Williams was suspended, but they've gotten hot at the right time. Jared Dudley is underrated and he can take the Eagles far.
Clemson 19-5 (5-5); 20 Four wins vs. Top 50; 7-3 away from home Seven wins over RPI 217; 5-5 in last 10 games IN
Tigers' easy non-conference slate didn't get them quite ready for ACC play. Recent struggles can't continue or they could be in trouble.
Duke 18-7 (5-6); 14 Five Top 30 wins; No. 4 in SOS 5-6 in conference; worst loss in Ga. Tech (60) IN
Recent four-game skid is big reason Duke resides on the bubble. But RPI and big wins are still enough to have them in the field of 65.
Florida State 17-8 (5-6); 19 Win over Florida (8) is one of four vs. Top 50 teams Seven wins over RPI 190 IN
Seminoles usually don't play a tough non-conference schedule and this year really isn't very different, but now they actually have a few good wins to accompany a good record.
Georgia Tech 16-8 (4-6); 60 Six wins vs. Top 50, including Duke (8) and Memphis (9) No wins on the road (two on neutral court); Loss to Miami (165) doesn't help; Seven wins over 190+ OUT
Yellow Jackets don't have the resume yet, but still have time in the schedule to make a charge if they're up for it.
Maryland 18-7 (4-6); 41 Four wins over Top 50; 4-4 away from home. Loss to Miami (163); Six wins over RPI 190+ OUT
Terps are in trouble, but win over Duke keeps them from falling completely off the bubble. They need to keep up their play from Sunday night, however, because their conference record can't take many more losses.
Virginia 15-7 (8-3); 34 Wins over Duke (8) and Arizona (7); 7-3 in last 10 Loss to Utah (138) and five wins outside Top 200 IN
Last week's win over Duke helped Cavaliers leap into solid standing for a tourney spot.
Virginia Tech 16-7 (7-3); 33 3-3 vs. Top 50 (including two wins over Top 10) Three losses outside Top 100 (N.C. State, W. Michigan and Marshall) IN
Recent struggles in conference play have the Hokies out of the Top 25 and in danger of being mired in the bubble. Need to pick it up.
Big East
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Georgetown 18-5 (8-2); 26 7-2 away from home; No losses outside Top 100 and just beat Marquette (22) Only 2-4 vs. Top 50 (but those four losses all to Top 30 teams) IN
Other than home loss to Old Dominion (56), worst of five defeats is Oregon (29).
Louisville 16-8 (7-4); 70 Best win is over Providence (52) 0-5 vs. Top 50 OUT
Cardinals have picked it up after slow start, but they just don't have a big win yet. Chances remain at Pitt and at Marquette.
Notre Dame 18-6 (6-5); 51 Four wins over Top 50; plus, win over W.Va. looks better now Losses to St. John's (130) and South Florida (161) IN
More than one loss the rest of the way and the Big East tourney becomes very important.
Providence 15-8 (5-5); 52 Wins over Marquette (22) and Boston College (28) Only 1-6 away from home; loss to Brown (249) OUT
It is a far reach to consider the Friars worthy of a bid. But if other teams in the mix collapse, Providence could slide up the charts
Syracuse 17-8 (6-5); 64 Wins at Marquette (22) and vs. Villanova (15) Only 3-4 vs. RPI 50-100; Loss to St. John's (130) OUT
With 10 wins over teams higher than 140, 'Cuse needs a bit more in its portfolio.
Villanova 16-7 (5-5); 15 Nine wins away from home and a SOS ranked sixth. 1-4 vs. Top 50; worst loss is DePaul (65) IN
The 'Cats just can't afford any slip-ups in conference play, and that shouldn't be too difficult with only two Top 50 teams left on the schedule.
West Virginia 18-54 (7-4); 36 Wins over UCLA (1) and Villanova (15); seven wins away from home. SOS is just 125 and loss at Cincy (154) isn't a bright spot IN
Mountaineers are playing well considering what they lost from last year and win over UCLA jumps them over some other bubble squads ... for now
Big 12
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Kansas State 18-7 (7-3); 46 Seven wins away from home, including snapping Texas' 22-game home streak; win over Southern Cal (47) Two losses outside Top 100; SOS ranked just 99th IN
Hot streak in conference play has Bob Huggins thinking tourney in his first year at the helm. Still have some tough games ahead, but are in position so far.
Oklahoma 14-8 (6-4); 62 Wins over Okla. State (21) and Texas Tech (45) 2-7 away from home; 2-7 vs. Top 50 OUT
Win over Okla. State helps, but Sooners' credentials still lacking the 'pop' the committee wants to see.
Oklahoma State 18-5 (5-4); 21 Beat Pitt (3) and Missouri State (32) Loss to Colorado (223); Six wins over RPI of 197 IN
Officially, the Cowboys don?t have a road win yet. They have five wins on neutral courts -- some of which were colored Orange in nearby Oklahoma City -- so in order to consider themselves safe, they better pick it up away from home.
Texas 17-7 (7-3); 53 Six of seven losses are against Top 50; five wins away from home Only 2-6 vs. Top 50 IN
The Longhorns could use another good win to feel safe, but they're in as of now. Plus, how lame would it be not to get to see Kevin Durant in what might be his only shot at the tourney?
Texas Tech 15-10 (4-6); 45 Four wins vs. Top 50; five wins away from home and SOS ranked 10th Current five-game losing streak, plus losses to Mizzou (92) and Baylor (144) don't help. OUT
Five-game skid isn't impressing the committee at all. Need to bounce back, that's all.
Big Ten
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Illinois 18-9 (6-6); 38 No losses outside RPI 58; Three wins over Top 50 No real standout victory on the road; 3-8 overall vs. Top 50 IN
Rest of schedule would suggest the Illini can win out and make the field. Let's see if they can ...
Indiana 17-6 (7-3); 16 Five Top 50 wins, including Wisconsin (4); 8-2 in last 10 games Don't have a recognizable win on the road (does UConn count?); But also haven't lost at home IN
Wins over Wisconsin and Southern Illinois stand out and RPI is high enough to make Hoosiers feel safe.
Michigan 17-8 (5-5); 58 Best wins are over Illinois (38) and Purdue (40) 0-4 vs. Top 25; Seven wins over RPI 200 OUT
Wolverines have a very slim chance at a bid, but nothing on the resume really grabs my attention yet.
Michigan State 17-8 (4-6); 42 Three wins over Top 50; Only one loss to a team with RPI higher than 42 Lackluster road record (1-6); four-game losing streak IN
Spartans are in the bracket, but just barely. Need a win bigger than BYU to justify a spot, and they have opportunities ahead.
Purdue 16-9 (5-6); 40 Three wins vs. Top 50; SOS ranked No. 13 0-4 vs. Top 25; loss to Minnesota (173) OUT
Boilermakers could use a win over Indiana this week to impress committee, otherwise it might come down to what other teams don't do as opposed to what they can do.
Missouri Valley
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Bradley 16-10 (8-7); 48 Win over Southern Illinois (9) 1-7 vs. Top 50 OUT
Braves just haven't gotten big wins with plenty of opportunities to do so. RPI number is so high because of in-conference competition, but it won't help them come Selection Sunday.
Creighton 17-8 (11-4); 25 5-2 vs. Top 50; Seven wins away from home Six of eight losses are outside the Top 50 IN
Bluejays have enough good wins and are impressive enough away from home to earn a bid.
Missouri State 18-7 (10-5); 32 8-5 away from home; Win over Wisconsin (5) Loss to Evansville (120) IN
Bears looking good, but have three very tough games left in regular season in Southern Illinois, Winthrop and Wichita State.
Northern Iowa 15-10 (7-8); 90 3-3 vs. Top 50; Five wins away from home 3-7 in last 10 games; five losses outside RPI 100 OUT
Too many confernce losses for Panthers to really have a shot, unless they win out and impress in MVC tourney.
Southern Illinois 18-5 (10-3); 12 3-3 vs. Top 50; 9-5 on road Loss to Evansville (120) Barring meltdown of major proportions, Salukis will be dancing
Pac-10
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Arizona 17-7 (8-5); 6 Five wins vs. Top 40; 6-4 away from home Seven losses are all to Top 50 teams; Blowout loss to UNC was disappointing IN
Wildcats play the toughest schedule in the nation and still haven't lost to a team outside the Top 50. Their seed might be affected by total number of losses, but for now they should be safely in the bracket.
Stanford 15-8 (7-5); 35 Beat UCLA;
5-4 vs. Top 50 Worst loss is to Santa Clara (87) IN
Cardinal have been relatively impressive against top teams and away from home, both things the committee likes to see.
Southern Cal 18-7 (8-4); 47 Three wins over Top 30; Five wins away from home Worst loss to South Carolina (93) IN
Trojans' sweep of Oregon and win over Arizona are good starting points. Just need to keep focus and avoid slip-ups.
SEC
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Alabama 18-6 (5-5); 31 Two wins vs. Top 50; 6-5 away from home Worst loss to Auburn (106); only 5-5 in last 10 games IN
Crimson Tide are on the edge, but they get in for now. Next three games are Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee. We'll revisit once that stretch ends.
Arkansas 15-9 (4-6); 39 4-4 vs. Top 50; SOS ranked No. 11 Only 1-6 in official road games; 4-6 in last 10 IN
Razorbacks are one of the last teams in line right now. Loss at LSU is not what they needed, but rest of schedule could help them get back on track.
Georgia 13-9 (6-5); 44 Win over Kentucky (7) Four wins over teams outside RPI 260; Only 3-7 vs. Top 50 OUT
Bulldogs were looking good, but three losses in last four games aren't grabbing anyone's attention like upsets earlier in the season.
LSU 14-10 (3-7); 77 Win over Texas A&M (10) 2-6 vs. Top 50; 2-6 on the road OUT
Tigers really shouldn't even be on this list, but I felt somewhat bad leaving out a Final Four team from a year ago.
Tennessee 17-8 (5-5); 13 Wins over Memphis (12) and Okla. State (21); SOS is ranked fifth Only 1-6 in official road games; loss to Auburn (106) IN
Vols struggled a bit when Chris Lofton was injured, but recent rout of Vanderbilt shows they're back in stride.
Vanderbilt 15-9 (6-4); 49 Four Top 50 wins; road win at Kentucky (7) Losses to Wake Forest (129) and Furman (189) IN
Vanderbilt is in for now, but still have Florida, Kentucky and Arkansas on the slate and could use a win in that stretch to feel better about position.
Others on the bubble
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Drexel
Colonial 18-6 (11-4); 50 Win at Villanova highlights 11-3 record on the road Loss to Rider (192) hurts IN
Big road wins and recent hot streak (7-3 in last 10) have Dragons in good position for a bid. Beating Creighton in Bracket Buster would help immensely.
Hofstra
Colonial 18-7 (12-3); 68 2-1 vs. Top 50; 8-5 in road games Three losses outside RPI 180; SOS on ranked No. 149 OUT
Pride pack a wallop, but ultimately, schedule strength might prevent them from earning an at-large bid. Bracket Buster (vs. Holy Cross) and matchup with Old Dominion are needed for any shot.
Old Dominion
Colonial 19-7 (12-3); 56 Four wins over Top 50; 6-5 in true road games Loss to James Madison (299) hurts; SOS is just No. 104 OUT
Though win over Georgetown is looking much better now, Monarchs shouldn't count on an at-large bid. Chasing down VCU for league crown might be easiest path since there aren't many chances for impressive wins left on the schedule.
UNLV
Mountain West 20-5 (8-3); 12 Wins over Nevada (23) and BYU (24); Three of five losses to RPI Top 25 Worst loss is to UC Santa Barbara (140) IN
Rebels have a very good resume, but just better hope three road games down the stretch don't ruin what they've done thus far.
Virginia Commonwealth
Colonial 21-5 (13-2); 43 9-2 in road games; All five losses to RPI Top 100 SOS is only No. 126; highest RPI win is over Drexel (50) VCU leads the conference and is counted among teams listed above, but they also probably have the best case for an at-large bid from the conference and will remain listed down here in case they fall out of Colonial League lead.
Winthrop
Big South 17-4 (11-0); 75 11-4 away from home; 11 straight wins 0-4 vs. Top 50; SOS is terrible at No. 254 Eagles played a very tough non-conference slate, but the Big South competition holds them back. If they beat Missouri State in Bracket Buster matchup, their at-large portfolio will be much clearer.
Xavier
Atlantic 10 18-7 (8-3); 37 4-2 vs. Top 50, including wins over Villanova (15) and Illinois (38) Losses to Duquesne and Cincinnati aren't impressive OUT
With the lack of options elsewhere, the Musketeers seem to have just as good an argument as several major conference teams.
***
Tim Gardner is the college basketball editor for USATODAY.com. You can send him feedback at tegardne@usatoday.com.
Updated 2/11/2007 10:56 PM ET
By Tim Gardner, USA TODAY
To call this year's NCAA Tournament bubble "crowded" is an understatement of immense proportions.
With just one month until Selection Sunday, teams are in search of big wins, eye-catching performances and that one final hot streak in hopes of impressing the selection committee.
But there really aren't many succeeding in those efforts. The resumes of some teams on the bubble are not what we're accustomed to seeing from teams vying for a tournament berth.
A few examples:
? Sure, Maryland beat Duke on Sunday. But that still leaves the Terps at 4-6 in ACC play, which truly isn't enough for them to feel safe about their chances. And they have a rough schedule to finish the season.
? After losing four of six games in January, Alabama looked like it has righted the ship by reeling off three straight conference wins. But a weekend loss at Ole Miss plants the Tide right back where they were ? firmly on the bubble.
On the other side of things is West Virginia.
The Mountaineers held off UCLA on Saturday and have played their way into a bid. And who would have thought that after all that John Beilein's squad lost from last year's team. Though they still have games remaining at Georgetown and at Pittsburgh, the Mountaineers' 7-4 mark away from home ? including wins over Villanova and the Bruins ? should be enough at this point for them to feel comfortable.
Then we get to the mid-majors. While the Missouri Valley is once again strong, it's not going to get the four bids it received last season. Three seems more like it with Southern Illinois (a lock), Creighton and Missouri State.
But while the MVC might be down a bit, the Colonial Athletic Association is once again looking strong. Drexel, Old Dominion, Virginia Commonwealth and Hofstra (a stretch) all have tourney aspirations. I expect to see the Colonial get more than one bid, but it will obviously depend on who wins the league crown and what the others do from here on out.
Meanwhile, the Pac-10 looks strong with six teams currently in the field. No, Arizona's struggles are not cause for concern. The Wildcats play the nation's toughest schedule and are still sitting pretty in the RPI at No. 7.
And here's hoping Texas doesn't fall apart and miss out on a tourney bid. Can you imagine freshman phenom Kevin Durant not getting a chance to shine on the biggest stage in college hoops? Me, either. It just wouldn't be right.
Ultimately, bid selection will come down to who can impress in the final month of the season. Since many teams' overall package looks similar, who stands out in the final month could make all the difference.
For reference, all RPI rankings used in Bubble Tracker are based on those at collegerpi.com. These rankings mirror those the selection committee will use to pick the field, which can be found here. Also, non-Division I wins and losses are not counted toward a team's record:
In position for a bid
(Through Sunday's games)
America East (1) ACC (1) Atlantic 10 (1) Atlantic Sun (1)
Vermont North Carolina UMass East Tenn. State
Big East (2) Big Sky (1) Big South (1) Big Ten (2)
Pittsburgh
Marquette Weber State Winthrop * Ohio State
Wisconsin
Big 12 (2) Big West (1) Colonial (1) C-USA (1)
Texas A&M
Kansas Long Beach VCU * Memphis
Horizon (1) Ivy (1) MAAC (1) MAC (1)
Butler Pennsylvania Marist Akron
Mid-Continent (1) MEAC (1) Missouri Valley (1) Mountain West (2)
Oral Roberts Delaware State Southern Illinois * BYU
Air Force
Northeast (1) Ohio Valley (1) Pac-10 (3) Patriot (1)
Central Connecticut Austin Peay UCLA
Washington State
Oregon Holy Cross
SEC (2) SWAC (1) Southern (1) Southland (1)
Florida
Kentucky Jackson State Davidson Texas A&M - Corpus Christi
Sun Belt (1) WAC (1) West Coast (1)
South Alabama Nevada Gonzaga
Notes:
- Conference leaders at time of publishing are in RED.
- Teams with an asterisk (*) are also listed below (but not given IN or OUT status) because if they weren't leading the conference, they would still have a resume worthy of at-large consideration.
The above 'locks' total 38, leaving us with 27 spots to fill. And there are much more than 27 teams vying for those spots ...
Those battling for the Big Dance
(click on school name to see team report)
ACC
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Boston College 18-6 (9-2); 28 6-3 vs. Top 50; 8-2 in last 10 games Loss to Duquesne (158) IN
Thought the Eagles would falter once Sean Williams was suspended, but they've gotten hot at the right time. Jared Dudley is underrated and he can take the Eagles far.
Clemson 19-5 (5-5); 20 Four wins vs. Top 50; 7-3 away from home Seven wins over RPI 217; 5-5 in last 10 games IN
Tigers' easy non-conference slate didn't get them quite ready for ACC play. Recent struggles can't continue or they could be in trouble.
Duke 18-7 (5-6); 14 Five Top 30 wins; No. 4 in SOS 5-6 in conference; worst loss in Ga. Tech (60) IN
Recent four-game skid is big reason Duke resides on the bubble. But RPI and big wins are still enough to have them in the field of 65.
Florida State 17-8 (5-6); 19 Win over Florida (8) is one of four vs. Top 50 teams Seven wins over RPI 190 IN
Seminoles usually don't play a tough non-conference schedule and this year really isn't very different, but now they actually have a few good wins to accompany a good record.
Georgia Tech 16-8 (4-6); 60 Six wins vs. Top 50, including Duke (8) and Memphis (9) No wins on the road (two on neutral court); Loss to Miami (165) doesn't help; Seven wins over 190+ OUT
Yellow Jackets don't have the resume yet, but still have time in the schedule to make a charge if they're up for it.
Maryland 18-7 (4-6); 41 Four wins over Top 50; 4-4 away from home. Loss to Miami (163); Six wins over RPI 190+ OUT
Terps are in trouble, but win over Duke keeps them from falling completely off the bubble. They need to keep up their play from Sunday night, however, because their conference record can't take many more losses.
Virginia 15-7 (8-3); 34 Wins over Duke (8) and Arizona (7); 7-3 in last 10 Loss to Utah (138) and five wins outside Top 200 IN
Last week's win over Duke helped Cavaliers leap into solid standing for a tourney spot.
Virginia Tech 16-7 (7-3); 33 3-3 vs. Top 50 (including two wins over Top 10) Three losses outside Top 100 (N.C. State, W. Michigan and Marshall) IN
Recent struggles in conference play have the Hokies out of the Top 25 and in danger of being mired in the bubble. Need to pick it up.
Big East
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Georgetown 18-5 (8-2); 26 7-2 away from home; No losses outside Top 100 and just beat Marquette (22) Only 2-4 vs. Top 50 (but those four losses all to Top 30 teams) IN
Other than home loss to Old Dominion (56), worst of five defeats is Oregon (29).
Louisville 16-8 (7-4); 70 Best win is over Providence (52) 0-5 vs. Top 50 OUT
Cardinals have picked it up after slow start, but they just don't have a big win yet. Chances remain at Pitt and at Marquette.
Notre Dame 18-6 (6-5); 51 Four wins over Top 50; plus, win over W.Va. looks better now Losses to St. John's (130) and South Florida (161) IN
More than one loss the rest of the way and the Big East tourney becomes very important.
Providence 15-8 (5-5); 52 Wins over Marquette (22) and Boston College (28) Only 1-6 away from home; loss to Brown (249) OUT
It is a far reach to consider the Friars worthy of a bid. But if other teams in the mix collapse, Providence could slide up the charts
Syracuse 17-8 (6-5); 64 Wins at Marquette (22) and vs. Villanova (15) Only 3-4 vs. RPI 50-100; Loss to St. John's (130) OUT
With 10 wins over teams higher than 140, 'Cuse needs a bit more in its portfolio.
Villanova 16-7 (5-5); 15 Nine wins away from home and a SOS ranked sixth. 1-4 vs. Top 50; worst loss is DePaul (65) IN
The 'Cats just can't afford any slip-ups in conference play, and that shouldn't be too difficult with only two Top 50 teams left on the schedule.
West Virginia 18-54 (7-4); 36 Wins over UCLA (1) and Villanova (15); seven wins away from home. SOS is just 125 and loss at Cincy (154) isn't a bright spot IN
Mountaineers are playing well considering what they lost from last year and win over UCLA jumps them over some other bubble squads ... for now
Big 12
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Kansas State 18-7 (7-3); 46 Seven wins away from home, including snapping Texas' 22-game home streak; win over Southern Cal (47) Two losses outside Top 100; SOS ranked just 99th IN
Hot streak in conference play has Bob Huggins thinking tourney in his first year at the helm. Still have some tough games ahead, but are in position so far.
Oklahoma 14-8 (6-4); 62 Wins over Okla. State (21) and Texas Tech (45) 2-7 away from home; 2-7 vs. Top 50 OUT
Win over Okla. State helps, but Sooners' credentials still lacking the 'pop' the committee wants to see.
Oklahoma State 18-5 (5-4); 21 Beat Pitt (3) and Missouri State (32) Loss to Colorado (223); Six wins over RPI of 197 IN
Officially, the Cowboys don?t have a road win yet. They have five wins on neutral courts -- some of which were colored Orange in nearby Oklahoma City -- so in order to consider themselves safe, they better pick it up away from home.
Texas 17-7 (7-3); 53 Six of seven losses are against Top 50; five wins away from home Only 2-6 vs. Top 50 IN
The Longhorns could use another good win to feel safe, but they're in as of now. Plus, how lame would it be not to get to see Kevin Durant in what might be his only shot at the tourney?
Texas Tech 15-10 (4-6); 45 Four wins vs. Top 50; five wins away from home and SOS ranked 10th Current five-game losing streak, plus losses to Mizzou (92) and Baylor (144) don't help. OUT
Five-game skid isn't impressing the committee at all. Need to bounce back, that's all.
Big Ten
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Illinois 18-9 (6-6); 38 No losses outside RPI 58; Three wins over Top 50 No real standout victory on the road; 3-8 overall vs. Top 50 IN
Rest of schedule would suggest the Illini can win out and make the field. Let's see if they can ...
Indiana 17-6 (7-3); 16 Five Top 50 wins, including Wisconsin (4); 8-2 in last 10 games Don't have a recognizable win on the road (does UConn count?); But also haven't lost at home IN
Wins over Wisconsin and Southern Illinois stand out and RPI is high enough to make Hoosiers feel safe.
Michigan 17-8 (5-5); 58 Best wins are over Illinois (38) and Purdue (40) 0-4 vs. Top 25; Seven wins over RPI 200 OUT
Wolverines have a very slim chance at a bid, but nothing on the resume really grabs my attention yet.
Michigan State 17-8 (4-6); 42 Three wins over Top 50; Only one loss to a team with RPI higher than 42 Lackluster road record (1-6); four-game losing streak IN
Spartans are in the bracket, but just barely. Need a win bigger than BYU to justify a spot, and they have opportunities ahead.
Purdue 16-9 (5-6); 40 Three wins vs. Top 50; SOS ranked No. 13 0-4 vs. Top 25; loss to Minnesota (173) OUT
Boilermakers could use a win over Indiana this week to impress committee, otherwise it might come down to what other teams don't do as opposed to what they can do.
Missouri Valley
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Bradley 16-10 (8-7); 48 Win over Southern Illinois (9) 1-7 vs. Top 50 OUT
Braves just haven't gotten big wins with plenty of opportunities to do so. RPI number is so high because of in-conference competition, but it won't help them come Selection Sunday.
Creighton 17-8 (11-4); 25 5-2 vs. Top 50; Seven wins away from home Six of eight losses are outside the Top 50 IN
Bluejays have enough good wins and are impressive enough away from home to earn a bid.
Missouri State 18-7 (10-5); 32 8-5 away from home; Win over Wisconsin (5) Loss to Evansville (120) IN
Bears looking good, but have three very tough games left in regular season in Southern Illinois, Winthrop and Wichita State.
Northern Iowa 15-10 (7-8); 90 3-3 vs. Top 50; Five wins away from home 3-7 in last 10 games; five losses outside RPI 100 OUT
Too many confernce losses for Panthers to really have a shot, unless they win out and impress in MVC tourney.
Southern Illinois 18-5 (10-3); 12 3-3 vs. Top 50; 9-5 on road Loss to Evansville (120) Barring meltdown of major proportions, Salukis will be dancing
Pac-10
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Arizona 17-7 (8-5); 6 Five wins vs. Top 40; 6-4 away from home Seven losses are all to Top 50 teams; Blowout loss to UNC was disappointing IN
Wildcats play the toughest schedule in the nation and still haven't lost to a team outside the Top 50. Their seed might be affected by total number of losses, but for now they should be safely in the bracket.
Stanford 15-8 (7-5); 35 Beat UCLA;
5-4 vs. Top 50 Worst loss is to Santa Clara (87) IN
Cardinal have been relatively impressive against top teams and away from home, both things the committee likes to see.
Southern Cal 18-7 (8-4); 47 Three wins over Top 30; Five wins away from home Worst loss to South Carolina (93) IN
Trojans' sweep of Oregon and win over Arizona are good starting points. Just need to keep focus and avoid slip-ups.
SEC
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Alabama 18-6 (5-5); 31 Two wins vs. Top 50; 6-5 away from home Worst loss to Auburn (106); only 5-5 in last 10 games IN
Crimson Tide are on the edge, but they get in for now. Next three games are Florida, Kentucky and Tennessee. We'll revisit once that stretch ends.
Arkansas 15-9 (4-6); 39 4-4 vs. Top 50; SOS ranked No. 11 Only 1-6 in official road games; 4-6 in last 10 IN
Razorbacks are one of the last teams in line right now. Loss at LSU is not what they needed, but rest of schedule could help them get back on track.
Georgia 13-9 (6-5); 44 Win over Kentucky (7) Four wins over teams outside RPI 260; Only 3-7 vs. Top 50 OUT
Bulldogs were looking good, but three losses in last four games aren't grabbing anyone's attention like upsets earlier in the season.
LSU 14-10 (3-7); 77 Win over Texas A&M (10) 2-6 vs. Top 50; 2-6 on the road OUT
Tigers really shouldn't even be on this list, but I felt somewhat bad leaving out a Final Four team from a year ago.
Tennessee 17-8 (5-5); 13 Wins over Memphis (12) and Okla. State (21); SOS is ranked fifth Only 1-6 in official road games; loss to Auburn (106) IN
Vols struggled a bit when Chris Lofton was injured, but recent rout of Vanderbilt shows they're back in stride.
Vanderbilt 15-9 (6-4); 49 Four Top 50 wins; road win at Kentucky (7) Losses to Wake Forest (129) and Furman (189) IN
Vanderbilt is in for now, but still have Florida, Kentucky and Arkansas on the slate and could use a win in that stretch to feel better about position.
Others on the bubble
Team Record; RPI The good ... ... and the bad Analysis
Drexel
Colonial 18-6 (11-4); 50 Win at Villanova highlights 11-3 record on the road Loss to Rider (192) hurts IN
Big road wins and recent hot streak (7-3 in last 10) have Dragons in good position for a bid. Beating Creighton in Bracket Buster would help immensely.
Hofstra
Colonial 18-7 (12-3); 68 2-1 vs. Top 50; 8-5 in road games Three losses outside RPI 180; SOS on ranked No. 149 OUT
Pride pack a wallop, but ultimately, schedule strength might prevent them from earning an at-large bid. Bracket Buster (vs. Holy Cross) and matchup with Old Dominion are needed for any shot.
Old Dominion
Colonial 19-7 (12-3); 56 Four wins over Top 50; 6-5 in true road games Loss to James Madison (299) hurts; SOS is just No. 104 OUT
Though win over Georgetown is looking much better now, Monarchs shouldn't count on an at-large bid. Chasing down VCU for league crown might be easiest path since there aren't many chances for impressive wins left on the schedule.
UNLV
Mountain West 20-5 (8-3); 12 Wins over Nevada (23) and BYU (24); Three of five losses to RPI Top 25 Worst loss is to UC Santa Barbara (140) IN
Rebels have a very good resume, but just better hope three road games down the stretch don't ruin what they've done thus far.
Virginia Commonwealth
Colonial 21-5 (13-2); 43 9-2 in road games; All five losses to RPI Top 100 SOS is only No. 126; highest RPI win is over Drexel (50) VCU leads the conference and is counted among teams listed above, but they also probably have the best case for an at-large bid from the conference and will remain listed down here in case they fall out of Colonial League lead.
Winthrop
Big South 17-4 (11-0); 75 11-4 away from home; 11 straight wins 0-4 vs. Top 50; SOS is terrible at No. 254 Eagles played a very tough non-conference slate, but the Big South competition holds them back. If they beat Missouri State in Bracket Buster matchup, their at-large portfolio will be much clearer.
Xavier
Atlantic 10 18-7 (8-3); 37 4-2 vs. Top 50, including wins over Villanova (15) and Illinois (38) Losses to Duquesne and Cincinnati aren't impressive OUT
With the lack of options elsewhere, the Musketeers seem to have just as good an argument as several major conference teams.
***
Tim Gardner is the college basketball editor for USATODAY.com. You can send him feedback at tegardne@usatoday.com.
