- Mar 19, 2006
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<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=bottom height=50><TABLE height=40 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD vAlign=center>Bubble Watch
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You've read Jerry Palm's Bracket Projections, now here's how CBSSports.com college basketball producer Brian De Los Santos assesses the resum?s of teams that may be sweating it out until Selection Sunday.
Teams that should be safe (47):
ACC (5): Duke, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Atlantic 10 (1): Xavier
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas
Big East (7): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virgnia
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (2): *Cleveland State, Butler
Mountain West (2): BYU, Utah
Pac-10 (4): Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee
Others (13): *Cornell (Ivy), *Radford (Big South), *East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), *Morehead State (Ohio Valley), *Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), *VCU (Colonial), *Chattanooga (Southern), *Gonzaga (West Coast), *Siena (MAAC), *North Dakota State (Summit), *Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), *Robert Morris (Northeast), *Portland State (Big Sky)
* -- denotes automatic bid <!--
Note: Regular-season MAC champion Kent State will not be listed on the bubble unless it loses its conference tournament.-->
If all our "safe" teams are indeed locks and assuming a team listed above has won/will win its conference's automatic bid (23 conferences listed), plus eight other conference automatic bids, that would leave 10 at-large spots available in the tournament of 65. There are 23 teams currently on our bubble list.
NOTE: Click team name or logo for a detailed breakdown of a team's RPI and SOS.
<!--If all our "safe" teams are indeed locks, that would leave 8 spots up for grabs. There are 20 teams currently on our bubble list.-->Last updated: March 12, 12:55 a.m. ET
Wednesday's automatic bids: Robert Morris (Northeast), Portland State (Big Sky)
<!--Monday's riser: Siena wins MAAC automatic bid
Sunday's fallers: Davidson bubble popped-->
ACC
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Boston College (21-10, 9-7 ACC) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Seven victories vs. the RPI top 75. Wins of note: at North Carolina, vs. Duke, vs. Florida State, vs. Va. Tech, vs. Providence, at Maryland.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Lost four of the their past seven games. Losses to Harvard (at home), St. Louis and NC State. Swept by Miami, another team on the bubble. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>They have a nice array of wins and decent power numbers, but their play of late has been very unimpressive. The Eagles were very fortunate to avoid a resum?-killing loss in the season finale vs. Georgia Tech. Only four of their 10 losses are against definite NCAA tournament teams. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>def. Georgia Tech 67-66</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Virginia
(ACC first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Maryland (18-12, 7-9 ACC) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An SOS in the top 30. Eight victories vs. the RPI top 100. Wins of note: vs. North Carolina, neutral court vs. Michigan State, vs. Miami, vs. Michigan, vs. Virginia Tech. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Losers of four of their past six games. A 5-10 mark vs. the RPI top 75. Lost badly on a neutral court to Georgetown. Home loss to Morgan State. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>It looks like Maryland has some work to do in the ACC tourney. While they have some nice wins in and out of conference, the Terps missed a couple of golden opportunities in recent games against Duke and Wake Forest to solidify their credentials and then ended the season with a confidence-crushing loss at Virginia. Among ACC bubble teams, they split the season series vs. Miami and lost their only meeting vs. Boston College. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>lost to Virginia 68-63</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- NC State
(ACC first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Virginia Tech (17-13, 7-9 ACC) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An SOS in the top 30. Eight victories in road/neutral games. Wins of note: at Clemson, at Wake Forest, at Miami, vs. Boston College. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Lost six of last seven games. A 4-10 record vs. the RPI top 75 (2-8 vs. the top 25). Two losses to teams outside the RPI top 100. Lost only meeting against Maryland, a fellow bubble team. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>One nice positive in the Hokies favor is they've been able to win on the road against strong competition. If they could only have done the same at home down the stretch, they'd be in good shape. Instead they've lost their past three homes games (FSU, Duke and UNC). They're probably going to need a couple of wins in the ACC tournament to receive more than a cursory look from the selecton committee. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>lost to Florida State 63-53</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Miami (Fla.)
(ACC first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Miami (Fla.) (18-11, 7-9 ACC) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An RPI hovering around the top 50. An SOS in the top 25. Wins of Note: vs. Wake Forest, vs. Florida State, vs. Maryland, at Kentucky, swept Boston College. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Lost seven of their last 11. A 2-6 mark vs. teams in the RPI top 25, 5-9 vs. the top 75. Lost at NC State and at Georgia Tech. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Kept slim tourney hopes alive by taking care of NC State in their regular-season finale. If they can make a miracle run to the ACC title game, perhaps they'll have a shot at an at-large, but loss to Georgia Tech likely sealed their fate. It was an awful loss for a team trying to make an impression on the selection committee, resulting in only the second ACC victory for the Yellow Jackets this season. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>def. NC State 72-64</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Virginia Tech
(ACC first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Atlantic 10
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Dayton (25-6, 11-5 A-10) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Stellar overall record. An RPI in the 20s. Five victories vs. the RPI top 75, nine vs. the top 100. Wins of note: vs. Xavier, neutral court vs. Marquette, vs. Temple, neutral court vs. Auburn. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An SOS in the 90s. Seven wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 200. Lost at Creighton, another team battling for an at-large spot after failing to win its conference's automatic bid. Three losses vs. teams outside the RPI top 100, including one outside the top 200. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Their situation is a little tricky. Does a strong RPI and nine victories over teams in the RPI top 100, including Xavier and Marquette, trump a weak SOS and three bad losses? They shouldn't feel completely safe, but it does look promising. The longer they stay alive in the A-10 tournament, the better off they'll be. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>def. Duquesne 74-61</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Richmond
(A-10 quarterfinals)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Rhode Island (22-9, 11-5 A-10) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Winners of six of their past seven and 10 of their past 12. Wins of note: vs. Dayton, vs. Temple, neutral court vs. Penn State. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An SOS in the triple digits. A 2-5 mark vs. the RPI top 50. Eleven wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 200 and four vs. teams outside the top 300. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>The Rams have been playing some terrific ball of late, but took a heartbreaking loss at home to UMass in the regular-season finale that may have killed any hope of receiving an at-large invite to the NCAA tournament. Without strong power numbers and a marquee victory to hang their hat on, the Rams didn't have much room for error. They did beat Dayton (at home) in their only meeting. It appears they'll probably need to win the A-10 tournament if they want to go dancing. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>lost to Massachusetts 72-71</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Duquesne
(A-10 quarterfinals)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Temple (19-11, 11-5 A-10) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An RPI in the top 40. Winners of seven of their past nine games. Ten victories in road/neutral games. Wins of note: vs. Tennessee, at Penn State, vs. Rhode Island. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>A 1-5 mark vs. the RPI top 25. Five losses to teams outside the RPI top 75 (three outside the top 100). </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Too many sub-par losses in comparison with signifcant wins (just one vs. a team in the top 50). Home losses to Miami (Ohio) and LaSalle hurt the Owls the most. Another problem for Temple is that it only had one shot at taking down Xavier and/or Dayton and both games took place on the road. If they win their quarterfinal matchup, they should get a second chance at Xavier in the semifinals. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>lost to Massachusetts 72-71</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Saint Joseph's
(A-10 quarterfinals)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Big East
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Providence (19-12, 10-8 Big East) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Wins of note: vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Syracuse, vs. Rhode Island, swept Cincinnati.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An RPI in the 70s. A 2-7 mark vs teams in the RPI top 50, 3-11 vs. the top 75. A 6-8 mark away from home. Lost at home to Northeastern. Losses to bubble teams Boston College and Saint Mary's.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Beating Pittsburgh was huge, but that alone isn't enough to warrant an at-large invite from the selection committee. The Friars own only six victories over teams ranked in the RPI top 100, very low for a team from a major conference. We won't say they're completely out of luck for an at-large bid if they lose to Louisville, but their chances will drastically improve with a victory. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>def. DePaul 83-74
(Big East second round)
</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Louisville
(Big East quarterfinals)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Big Ten
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Michigan (19-12, 9-9 Big Ten) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An SOS in the top 15 and an RPI in the top 50. Ten victories vs. the RPI top 100, including six vs. the top 50. Wins of note: vs. Duke, vs. Illinois, vs. Purdue, vs. Minnesota, neutral court vs. UCLA, vs. Penn State.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Seven victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200 (including one vs. a non-DI school). A 5-9 mark on the road.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>The victory over Minnesota gave them not only a season sweep, but a nice resum?-building road win, which they had been lacking. Up until the loss to Iowa, the Wolverines had no particularly galling losses -- all had come vs. teams that should receive NCAA tournament consideration and most were on the road. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>def. Minnesota 67-64</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Iowa
(Big Ten first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Minnesota (21-9, 9-9 Big Ten) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An RPI and SOS in the top 40. Five victories vs. teams in the RPI top 50, seven vs. the top 75. Wins of note: neutral court vs. Louisville, vs. Illinois, vs. Ohio State, vs. Penn State, swept Wisconsin.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Eight victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200 (including one vs. a non-DI school). Losers of six of their past nine games. Swept by Michigan, another Big Ten bubble team. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>The Gophers have some good wins and the power numbers are solid, but they've done themselves no favors with their play down the stretch. Sweeping the regular-season series from Wisconsin was a step in the right direction, but then they allowed Michigan to complete a season sweep in their regular-season finale. If they lose in their Big Ten tournament opener, they'll be sweating it out until Selection Sunday. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>lost to Michigan 67-64</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Northwestern
(Big Ten first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Penn State (21-10, 10-8 Big Ten) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Six victories over teams in the RPI top 50, including a 3-1 mark vs. the top 25. Wins of note: at Michigan State, vs. Purdue, vs. Minnesota, vs. Michigan, swept Illinois. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Penn State's SOS and RPI has improved down the stretch, but still isn't great. Ten victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200. Split season series with Minnesota and Michigan, which both have better power numbers.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Up until their loss in the regular-season finale at Iowa, all of the Nittany Lions' losses were vs. teams in the RPI top 50. They did absolutely nothing out of conference. All six top 50 wins came vs. Big Ten foes, while their best non-conference victory is against Mount St. Mary's (sub-100 RPI). Pending Big Ten tournament, they still look somewhat questionable. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>lost to Iowa 75-67 (2OT)</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Indiana
(Big Ten first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD><TD vAlign=center><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=0><TBODY><TR><TD><SCRIPT type=text/javascript> var dclkFeature='http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/cbssports/'+vTag+';'+vTarget+';'+uID+';sz=400x60;tile=7;ord='+random+'?'; if (location.search.substring(1).indexOf('DCLK')>-1) document.write('<input type="text" value="'+dclkFeature+'" style="width:400px">
'); document.write('<scr' +'ipt src="'+dclkFeature+'"></sc'+'ript>'); </SCRIPT><SCRIPT src="http://ad.doubleclick.net/adj/cbssports/collegebasketball/media;arena=collegebasketball;site=media;type=psa;user=Anonymous;seg=nonaol;ctype=lan;lang=en-us;lang=en-us;adv=f;cust=no;u=Sbfsrwq0GZMAAFlClwE;sz=400x60;tile=7;ord=5794364908412206?"></SCRIPT>
You've read Jerry Palm's Bracket Projections, now here's how CBSSports.com college basketball producer Brian De Los Santos assesses the resum?s of teams that may be sweating it out until Selection Sunday.
Teams that should be safe (47):
ACC (5): Duke, Clemson, Florida State, North Carolina, Wake Forest
Atlantic 10 (1): Xavier
Big 12 (5): Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas A&M, Texas
Big East (7): Connecticut, Louisville, Marquette, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Villanova, West Virgnia
Big Ten (5): Illinois, Michigan State, Ohio State, Purdue, Wisconsin
Conference USA (1): Memphis
Horizon (2): *Cleveland State, Butler
Mountain West (2): BYU, Utah
Pac-10 (4): Arizona State, California, UCLA, Washington
SEC (2): LSU, Tennessee
Others (13): *Cornell (Ivy), *Radford (Big South), *East Tennessee State (Atlantic Sun), *Morehead State (Ohio Valley), *Northern Iowa (Missouri Valley), *VCU (Colonial), *Chattanooga (Southern), *Gonzaga (West Coast), *Siena (MAAC), *North Dakota State (Summit), *Western Kentucky (Sun Belt), *Robert Morris (Northeast), *Portland State (Big Sky)
* -- denotes automatic bid <!--
Note: Regular-season MAC champion Kent State will not be listed on the bubble unless it loses its conference tournament.-->
If all our "safe" teams are indeed locks and assuming a team listed above has won/will win its conference's automatic bid (23 conferences listed), plus eight other conference automatic bids, that would leave 10 at-large spots available in the tournament of 65. There are 23 teams currently on our bubble list.
NOTE: Click team name or logo for a detailed breakdown of a team's RPI and SOS.
<!--If all our "safe" teams are indeed locks, that would leave 8 spots up for grabs. There are 20 teams currently on our bubble list.-->Last updated: March 12, 12:55 a.m. ET
Wednesday's automatic bids: Robert Morris (Northeast), Portland State (Big Sky)
<!--Monday's riser: Siena wins MAAC automatic bid
Sunday's fallers: Davidson bubble popped-->
ACC
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Boston College (21-10, 9-7 ACC) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Seven victories vs. the RPI top 75. Wins of note: at North Carolina, vs. Duke, vs. Florida State, vs. Va. Tech, vs. Providence, at Maryland.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Lost four of the their past seven games. Losses to Harvard (at home), St. Louis and NC State. Swept by Miami, another team on the bubble. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>They have a nice array of wins and decent power numbers, but their play of late has been very unimpressive. The Eagles were very fortunate to avoid a resum?-killing loss in the season finale vs. Georgia Tech. Only four of their 10 losses are against definite NCAA tournament teams. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>def. Georgia Tech 67-66</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Virginia
(ACC first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Maryland (18-12, 7-9 ACC) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An SOS in the top 30. Eight victories vs. the RPI top 100. Wins of note: vs. North Carolina, neutral court vs. Michigan State, vs. Miami, vs. Michigan, vs. Virginia Tech. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Losers of four of their past six games. A 5-10 mark vs. the RPI top 75. Lost badly on a neutral court to Georgetown. Home loss to Morgan State. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>It looks like Maryland has some work to do in the ACC tourney. While they have some nice wins in and out of conference, the Terps missed a couple of golden opportunities in recent games against Duke and Wake Forest to solidify their credentials and then ended the season with a confidence-crushing loss at Virginia. Among ACC bubble teams, they split the season series vs. Miami and lost their only meeting vs. Boston College. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>lost to Virginia 68-63</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- NC State
(ACC first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Virginia Tech (17-13, 7-9 ACC) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An SOS in the top 30. Eight victories in road/neutral games. Wins of note: at Clemson, at Wake Forest, at Miami, vs. Boston College. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Lost six of last seven games. A 4-10 record vs. the RPI top 75 (2-8 vs. the top 25). Two losses to teams outside the RPI top 100. Lost only meeting against Maryland, a fellow bubble team. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>One nice positive in the Hokies favor is they've been able to win on the road against strong competition. If they could only have done the same at home down the stretch, they'd be in good shape. Instead they've lost their past three homes games (FSU, Duke and UNC). They're probably going to need a couple of wins in the ACC tournament to receive more than a cursory look from the selecton committee. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>lost to Florida State 63-53</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Miami (Fla.)
(ACC first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Miami (Fla.) (18-11, 7-9 ACC) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An RPI hovering around the top 50. An SOS in the top 25. Wins of Note: vs. Wake Forest, vs. Florida State, vs. Maryland, at Kentucky, swept Boston College. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Lost seven of their last 11. A 2-6 mark vs. teams in the RPI top 25, 5-9 vs. the top 75. Lost at NC State and at Georgia Tech. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Kept slim tourney hopes alive by taking care of NC State in their regular-season finale. If they can make a miracle run to the ACC title game, perhaps they'll have a shot at an at-large, but loss to Georgia Tech likely sealed their fate. It was an awful loss for a team trying to make an impression on the selection committee, resulting in only the second ACC victory for the Yellow Jackets this season. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>def. NC State 72-64</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Virginia Tech
(ACC first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Atlantic 10
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Dayton (25-6, 11-5 A-10) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Stellar overall record. An RPI in the 20s. Five victories vs. the RPI top 75, nine vs. the top 100. Wins of note: vs. Xavier, neutral court vs. Marquette, vs. Temple, neutral court vs. Auburn. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An SOS in the 90s. Seven wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 200. Lost at Creighton, another team battling for an at-large spot after failing to win its conference's automatic bid. Three losses vs. teams outside the RPI top 100, including one outside the top 200. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Their situation is a little tricky. Does a strong RPI and nine victories over teams in the RPI top 100, including Xavier and Marquette, trump a weak SOS and three bad losses? They shouldn't feel completely safe, but it does look promising. The longer they stay alive in the A-10 tournament, the better off they'll be. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>def. Duquesne 74-61</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Richmond
(A-10 quarterfinals)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Rhode Island (22-9, 11-5 A-10) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Winners of six of their past seven and 10 of their past 12. Wins of note: vs. Dayton, vs. Temple, neutral court vs. Penn State. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An SOS in the triple digits. A 2-5 mark vs. the RPI top 50. Eleven wins vs. teams outside the RPI top 200 and four vs. teams outside the top 300. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>The Rams have been playing some terrific ball of late, but took a heartbreaking loss at home to UMass in the regular-season finale that may have killed any hope of receiving an at-large invite to the NCAA tournament. Without strong power numbers and a marquee victory to hang their hat on, the Rams didn't have much room for error. They did beat Dayton (at home) in their only meeting. It appears they'll probably need to win the A-10 tournament if they want to go dancing. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>lost to Massachusetts 72-71</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Duquesne
(A-10 quarterfinals)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Temple (19-11, 11-5 A-10) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An RPI in the top 40. Winners of seven of their past nine games. Ten victories in road/neutral games. Wins of note: vs. Tennessee, at Penn State, vs. Rhode Island. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>A 1-5 mark vs. the RPI top 25. Five losses to teams outside the RPI top 75 (three outside the top 100). </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Too many sub-par losses in comparison with signifcant wins (just one vs. a team in the top 50). Home losses to Miami (Ohio) and LaSalle hurt the Owls the most. Another problem for Temple is that it only had one shot at taking down Xavier and/or Dayton and both games took place on the road. If they win their quarterfinal matchup, they should get a second chance at Xavier in the semifinals. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>lost to Massachusetts 72-71</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Saint Joseph's
(A-10 quarterfinals)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Big East
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Providence (19-12, 10-8 Big East) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Wins of note: vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Syracuse, vs. Rhode Island, swept Cincinnati.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An RPI in the 70s. A 2-7 mark vs teams in the RPI top 50, 3-11 vs. the top 75. A 6-8 mark away from home. Lost at home to Northeastern. Losses to bubble teams Boston College and Saint Mary's.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Beating Pittsburgh was huge, but that alone isn't enough to warrant an at-large invite from the selection committee. The Friars own only six victories over teams ranked in the RPI top 100, very low for a team from a major conference. We won't say they're completely out of luck for an at-large bid if they lose to Louisville, but their chances will drastically improve with a victory. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>def. DePaul 83-74
(Big East second round)
</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Louisville
(Big East quarterfinals)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
Big Ten
<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Michigan (19-12, 9-9 Big Ten) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An SOS in the top 15 and an RPI in the top 50. Ten victories vs. the RPI top 100, including six vs. the top 50. Wins of note: vs. Duke, vs. Illinois, vs. Purdue, vs. Minnesota, neutral court vs. UCLA, vs. Penn State.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Seven victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200 (including one vs. a non-DI school). A 5-9 mark on the road.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>The victory over Minnesota gave them not only a season sweep, but a nice resum?-building road win, which they had been lacking. Up until the loss to Iowa, the Wolverines had no particularly galling losses -- all had come vs. teams that should receive NCAA tournament consideration and most were on the road. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>def. Minnesota 67-64</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Iowa
(Big Ten first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Minnesota (21-9, 9-9 Big Ten) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>An RPI and SOS in the top 40. Five victories vs. teams in the RPI top 50, seven vs. the top 75. Wins of note: neutral court vs. Louisville, vs. Illinois, vs. Ohio State, vs. Penn State, swept Wisconsin.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Eight victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200 (including one vs. a non-DI school). Losers of six of their past nine games. Swept by Michigan, another Big Ten bubble team. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>The Gophers have some good wins and the power numbers are solid, but they've done themselves no favors with their play down the stretch. Sweeping the regular-season series from Wisconsin was a step in the right direction, but then they allowed Michigan to complete a season sweep in their regular-season finale. If they lose in their Big Ten tournament opener, they'll be sweating it out until Selection Sunday. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>lost to Michigan 67-64</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Northwestern
(Big Ten first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD colSpan=4><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg0><TD>Penn State (21-10, 10-8 Big Ten) </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR><TR vAlign=top><TD width="75%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg2><TD rowSpan=6>
</TD><TD class=bg1>Pros</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Six victories over teams in the RPI top 50, including a 3-1 mark vs. the top 25. Wins of note: at Michigan State, vs. Purdue, vs. Minnesota, vs. Michigan, swept Illinois. </TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Cons</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Penn State's SOS and RPI has improved down the stretch, but still isn't great. Ten victories vs. teams outside the RPI top 200. Split season series with Minnesota and Michigan, which both have better power numbers.</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Outlook</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>Up until their loss in the regular-season finale at Iowa, all of the Nittany Lions' losses were vs. teams in the RPI top 50. They did absolutely nothing out of conference. All six top 50 wins came vs. Big Ten foes, while their best non-conference victory is against Mount St. Mary's (sub-100 RPI). Pending Big Ten tournament, they still look somewhat questionable. </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD><TD width="1%"></TD><TD width="24%"><TABLE cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR class=bg1><TD>Last game</TD><TR class=bg2><TD>lost to Iowa 75-67 (2OT)</TD></TR><TR class=bg1><TD>Remaining schedule</TD></TR><TR class=bg2><TD>March 12 -- Indiana
(Big Ten first round)
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
