OK I'LL BUY IT !!!
Pittsburgh (2-1) opened the season with a 30-27 home win over the Cleveland Browns before going on the road and falling to the Baltimore Ravens 6-26. It then put together its best performance of the season last week in a 37-19 road win at Carolina.
Tampa Bay (0-3) suffered a couple of close home losses to both Carolina (14-20) and St. Louis (17-19) to open the season. It was then embarrassed in a 14-56 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons last Thursday.
Whenever one team blows out the opposition last week while the other team gets blown out, the line is usually inflated the following week. That appears to be the case here as the Steelers are 7.5-point favorites over the Bucs.
Pittsburgh blew out Carolina 37-19 on the road in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate, while Tampa Bay was blown out on the road by Atlanta last week 56-14. Obviously, the betting public takes notice, and overreacts. That forces oddsmakers to adjust the lines accordingly.
I believe there is some value here in the Bucs catching more than a touchdown. They have had an extra three days to prepare for the Steelers after playing last Thursday, which will be a huge advantage.
Look for Lovie Smith to rally the troops and get the Bucs to put forth their best effort of the season as they look to avoid falling to 0-4 on the year. This team simply self-destructed against the Falcons by committing five turnovers, and they are much better team than they showed.
Pittsburgh has all kinds of injury problems right now. It lost three defensive starters in the win over Carolina last week, so that victory came with a price. Two starting linebackers went down in Jarvis Jones and Ryan Shazier. Jones will miss at least the next eight games, while Shazier is sure to have to sit out a couple games.
Cornerback Ike Taylor suffered a broken arm and is likely lost for the season. The Steelers were already thin at cornerback and linebacker, so these are huge losses. They were even forced to sign the 36-year-old former Steeler James Harrison out of retirement this week.
Tampa Bay's biggest strength this season is a rushing offense that is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Pittsburgh's biggest weakness is a run defense that is allowing 5.0 yards per carry. The Steelers gave up 183 rushing yards to the Browns and 157 to the Ravens in the first two weeks. Then, Carolina inexplicably only ran the ball 10 times against them last week.
You can bet the Bucs won't make the same mistake as they try and get Bobby Rainey and Doug Martin as many carries as possible. Rainey has been a bright spot for this team, rushing for 197 yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
Plays on any team (TAMPA BAY) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a loss by 21 or more points are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.
Pittsburgh (2-1) opened the season with a 30-27 home win over the Cleveland Browns before going on the road and falling to the Baltimore Ravens 6-26. It then put together its best performance of the season last week in a 37-19 road win at Carolina.
Tampa Bay (0-3) suffered a couple of close home losses to both Carolina (14-20) and St. Louis (17-19) to open the season. It was then embarrassed in a 14-56 road loss to the Atlanta Falcons last Thursday.
Whenever one team blows out the opposition last week while the other team gets blown out, the line is usually inflated the following week. That appears to be the case here as the Steelers are 7.5-point favorites over the Bucs.
Pittsburgh blew out Carolina 37-19 on the road in a game that was closer than the final score would indicate, while Tampa Bay was blown out on the road by Atlanta last week 56-14. Obviously, the betting public takes notice, and overreacts. That forces oddsmakers to adjust the lines accordingly.
I believe there is some value here in the Bucs catching more than a touchdown. They have had an extra three days to prepare for the Steelers after playing last Thursday, which will be a huge advantage.
Look for Lovie Smith to rally the troops and get the Bucs to put forth their best effort of the season as they look to avoid falling to 0-4 on the year. This team simply self-destructed against the Falcons by committing five turnovers, and they are much better team than they showed.
Pittsburgh has all kinds of injury problems right now. It lost three defensive starters in the win over Carolina last week, so that victory came with a price. Two starting linebackers went down in Jarvis Jones and Ryan Shazier. Jones will miss at least the next eight games, while Shazier is sure to have to sit out a couple games.
Cornerback Ike Taylor suffered a broken arm and is likely lost for the season. The Steelers were already thin at cornerback and linebacker, so these are huge losses. They were even forced to sign the 36-year-old former Steeler James Harrison out of retirement this week.
Tampa Bay's biggest strength this season is a rushing offense that is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. Pittsburgh's biggest weakness is a run defense that is allowing 5.0 yards per carry. The Steelers gave up 183 rushing yards to the Browns and 157 to the Ravens in the first two weeks. Then, Carolina inexplicably only ran the ball 10 times against them last week.
You can bet the Bucs won't make the same mistake as they try and get Bobby Rainey and Doug Martin as many carries as possible. Rainey has been a bright spot for this team, rushing for 197 yards while averaging 5.3 yards per carry.
Plays on any team (TAMPA BAY) - a poor offensive team (14-18 PPG) against a poor defensive team (23-27 PPG), after a loss by 21 or more points are 24-4 (85.7%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Buccaneers Sunday.
