x38:
hey Buddy!
sorry but I've been away from mj's for 5 days or so.. those bowls were a bit overwhelming lol, got burned out so took a few days away.
Was great reading your history in Vegas... I worked for a private book in Nevada myself for almost 5 yrs, our boss was a friend of Gary Austin's, played some big card games with him back in the day.
I used to set the lines for our shop (using the DB line service, based it on what Cris, Pinnacle and a few others were using) we had our "sharp guy" lines for the dozen or so we had, and our "dodo" lines for everyone else, and to nobody's surprise, the house won wk after wk. We'd compare the sagarin ratings to the actual lines and occasionally when we had choices to make (3.5 or 4, etc) it and personal opinion of the boss and 2 others of us would make a decision on what we used... kept it simple.
The key to winning was.. Take the Action.. Write the Play!! we had around 400 players during fb season, kept it busy enough, and the boss made a fortune and he was hardly there except for Sunday mornings lol
And people talk about Vegas wanting to get equal money on both sides of the game, as u probably know Buddy, that is just not how they win.
Almost every week (esp on Saturdays and Sundays), we would be buried on 4, 5, 6 or 7 diff games where we had 80% of the $$$ on one side of the game, and occasionally on a total, but we RARELY moved off the REAL line to draw $$ the other way! Somehow, someway... whether it was a punt return, a kick off the crossbar, a late interception or fumble, or backdoor cover... however it happened, we would win half (and sometimes more) of those games... we didn't know which one's we would win (or we'd have bet and won ourselves!).
When the house won those games... it would knock out teasers and parlays galore, and we won $$ every wk in fball... and I mean EVERY week, and sometimes the amounts from 400 guys betting (mainly 50-200 per bet) would add up to some surprisingly Large figures.
The least we ever won was 20+k (only a few wks per season that low), and usually 100+, and 2 or 3 wks of 200+...
The boss had several very nice houses and cars and plenty of arm candy... funny how that works!
Bigger bettors (we only had about a dozen guys that played in the 1k-3k per bet, and they didn't play many bets per wk)... they shopped around... calling bk over and over to see if we moved a line to where they wanted to play it
Totals-wise... my Penn St play was obviously a mistake (it lost!), but if Georgia's FG kicker hadn't gotten injured earlier in the game, I still woulda won dat fucker!! they passed up on a fg attempt w ball on the 21 late in the game, (a chip shot for any decent HS kicker)... and lost my bet by 2 pts... who knew?? :shrug:
Yes... I've heard the story told about betting the low lines under and the high lines over... this was a great Over Bowl season for sure... and a rollercoaster for me lol... I won just under 2k for those 2 wks in the Bowls... of course 9 or 10k would've made a bigger impression on my vacation plans
And... I honestly have no fucking idea or recollection why I put the Penn St total in that bet at all :00x10
We had a guy in our office that would play parlay cards in the casino.. and spread the games out, and start betting the other way after the first win to start recouping (covering) his bet, to always try to win a few bucks on every card, one way or the other... I saw it as a lot of time and effort for tip money lol...
But certainly I would have walked away with several thousand had it come to gm #8 on Sunday... play a big ML fav, then u can bet moneyline and also +pts on the final game, make sure u win $$ no matter who wins... but ya gotta get there! and I didn't.. :facepalm:
I too love the old stories of before these fake-named touts all came in, so whenever you've got the time or the inclination to shoot the breeze, please do my friend!
I also bet Clemson.... and I lean over a bit (haven't pulled the trigger yet tho)
I don't see Clemson being held under 20 points, and more likely I see them in the high-20's themselves. The speed and elusiveness of their qb will lead to some big plays I believe.
I know Bama's got the talent and size... they ALWAYS have the most talent it seems.
Alabama's been a frggn juggernaut yr after yr w Saban... he knows what he's doing, and who he has to beat in his conference to get to the BCS...
I think Clemson's DB's will not allow Bama to pass with much success, so it will come down to Clemson's ability to stop the run, and don't know if they can.
but wtf do I know?? :shrug: