Outrights:
Charles Howell(28/1) e.w.
- -
(B) IMO, the most impressive display on debut last week (Sony) belonged to Charles Howell. At 33/1 CHIII was my headline play (Hope) . . . and then he withdrew after his granfather's death . . . I won't be leaving him off my card next time he plays, and regardless of that outcome, I can't see me leaving him off the time after that.
That's that.
Kevin Sutherland(50/1) e.w.
- - I've got "Howell on the brain", but this is the No. 1 name I've had in mind for this spot since the start of the season.
Pat Perez(50/1) e.w.
- - It is all about opinions . . . My first observation was that the "buddy factor" was on display last week when Charley Hoffman went close on the heels of Double Ps maiden win, and FWIW my thinking sees it as much more likely that the baton gets passed back to Perez this week rather than Hoffman simply driving forward. But is there a new and improved Double P, with a huge weight lifted from his shoulders, and can that "different animal" overcome all the distractions in this week's neighborhood, or will there be better opportunities going forward on the season? On the whole, with lousy prices the general rule in this poorish field, I see value enough. But I'm also still licking my wounds over not siding with Perez at the Hope.
Arjun Atwal(150/1 Win and 60/1 Top 5) e.w.
- - I owe him or he owes me, and this is one (more) candle I've kept burning. Now I'm recalling how eagles were doing the trick in 2006. Except for Sutherland, I think all four of my top plays this week are heavily dependent on what transpires over the first 27 holes or so.
Bubba Watson(80/1) e.w.
- - With Bubba searching for that elusive first win in his 4th season, I had him tagged as a candidate for a fast start in 2009, but was even more convinced that Waialae was a very poor opportunity for success. But IMO the early returns on the season support my basic hypothesis, and talk that Torrey Pines will be playing long, and confirmation that shaping your approach shots is a real key, makes this week a real opportunity for Bubba to brandish his sizeable potential
IF his driving is up to the moment.
Rory Sabbatini(22/1) e.w.
- - Twce in the past I've been rewarded for investing earlier rather than later in his streakiness. I was on Rory last week and tracking him closely, and that there swing of his and his whole game still seemed a ways off, but he there has been tell tale resilience.
Troy Matteson(50/1) e.w.
- - One to watch short, intermediate and long term, and can tap into plenty of familiar karma on these ocean bluffs.
To confirm the bumpy and difficult nature of the poa annua greens, TheGolfChannel showed stats that last year's Buick had the highest percentage of missed puts from inside 3', inside 5', and inside 10' of any stop on Tour in 2008. Knowing how the old bent grass greens on my two home courses can roll crazy after heavy traffic, when crusty, or squishy, it's easy to see how those with California connections and prior coping fare best.
Matchups:
Sutherland(-135) over Curtis (Tournament)
- - Despite generally poor prices on outrights, I still found it difficult to trim my list, and actually added two plays fairly late. Assbackwardly, I wasn't conflicted about trimming back on the plays I had circled on my matchups sheet.
GL