Bump in totals

[Stag]

As I mentioned last night, if you teased every total down 10 points (taking the over in a 3-team teaser), the overs have a record of 30-2 right now.
Even without the extra teaser points, totals (bet straight) are hitting over 70% in the first two weeks.
Well, looking at the Week 3 lines, it appears that the linesmakers have caught on to all the scoring. Never have I seen a collective group of totals this high in a week before.
I'm not saying now is the time to unload on the UNDERS this week, however, be careful if playing the overs straight, just because they have been on fire through the first two weeks.
Do I think the Overs (when teased 10 points) will go undefeated or have just one or two losses this week? No. However, in this scoring-friendly league that it has become, it is MUCH better to take the over while teasing rather than the under.
As I said yesterday, 28--24 games are much more common in this day and age than 17-6 games.

 

[MrChristo]

Last quarters esp. seem to be going all College on us...

...an av. of about 15 points in Q4 in the games this weekend. :facepalm:

Not sure if it's simply teams being more aggressive (ie. rather score than simply tick out the clock), or offenses are just more advanced than the D's early on, or it's the "fans-want-scoring-so-the-NFL-will-score" officiating...or a combination...

...but yeah, a couple of under-killers so far have been tough to take.

Question rightly is, will it continue? :shrug:

 

[Stag]

we shall see. I will keep momitoring this.
I have always been an under guy because A- it's easier to root for NOTHING to happen them SOMETHING. And B- public loves overs, so I figured the lines were always set a little on the higher side because of this.

As I wrote a few days ago, I am changing my approach to caping totals. This is a scoring league...(rules limit the defense, etc) . I think the 10-pojt teasers taking the over is a way to go, but probably not blindly. Teasing unders, at this point, makes little sense.
As an under better, the vast majority of NFL games in which I won on the under have barely gone under the number. However, overs seem to fly over the total with frequency.
I also notices tons of special teams and defensive td's now being scored. This alone will make a game go over, the vast majority of the time.