Byron Nelson Classic

[DOGS THAT BARK]

a few early ones
an outright E/W @ 365 Parny 50/1 1 unit total
The hair of the dog from last week

a few early 72 holes @ Cascade
Price +105 over Duval
Price +120 over Els
Parny -110 over Mattice (Double Play)
Lonard -120 over Rollins
Verplank -110 over leonard

 

[bettingmad]

It's Texas so it's got to be Justin Leonard 40/1 SportingOdds
Bogied the last at Houston to blow the last Texas place money but must give him another chance as he did me a favour winning the Worldcom. 6th here last year.

Must definitely go for Garcia in this, 14/1 Sporting odds (but hoping for better)
After playing in Europe to win the Spanish he could have been expected to stay there to practice at the Belfry in this week's B & H. I can only assume the B Nelson is high on his priorities... shot 64/65 at the weekend last year to finish 8th. Managed a 62 when 3rd in 1999.

My main discard for this was Bob Estes so his chances have increased dramatically... so far he is my most disappointing player of the season after finishing red hot last year. Was tempted by the 50/1 after a good final round last week and playing in Texas.... but declined. Hope he has a 'mare.... willed that on Rocco recently.. and inspired him to victory... do the players read this forum? Hello anybody there?

 

[Monarch]

DTB has highlighted a few times Tigers record on par 70s and there may be some room to oppose him this week. The PGA Tour has been a bitch to bet on the past 2-3 months after an excellent start I've pretty much given most of it back. Therefore, I can't justify wasting any more money on this tour till I get some confidence back. I don't think I could take another 1st time winner at the moment. I'm not sure if the bookies are getting sharper or the quality gap on Tour is decreasing but it's getting much harder than the past 2-3 seasons, imo.

 

[milpalm]

Agree with B'mad on Leonard. 40/1 at Sports.com. My other picks are Verplank at 50/1 and Toms at 28/1. Verplank should have won this last year when he finished 2nd. He's in fine form with two top 10s in his last two events. Toms was 9th last week and was 11th in this last year. I have a feeling he will win again soon.

 

[Ian]

Monarch - I have to agree with your sentiments above and have scaled down on the PGA tour.
Not had much time this week - just gone for 2 who finished top 4 last week who have played well here before - Dimarco 40/1 Coral and Hills and Cook - previous winner - 100/125-1 - Sports.com. Oh and Rich Beem 200/1 Sporting Odds

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

opps forgot to add a couple place only wagers @ SIA for 1/2 unit each
Dimarco 10/1
Price 10/1
Big prices for place on capable players.Tripp @ 100/1 looked sweet also--but will save some for oly place @ cut

 

[steved]

Perhaps misplaced, but some confidence here due to prices....
1 ew Verplank at 40/1 12345 and same stake at 50/1 1234 at Sports.com..backed him two outings ago when 5th, then had already formed orderly queue at Bet Here window for GG Chrysler Classic, which he promptly ducked because course was too easy!
Left him alone last week, and was saved worry as he hit best score on R4..on course that should not have suited..
1 ew Price at 40/1 12345 Sports.com...not sure if he wants to win enough anymore, but again, a good price, and Stanley tipped him up last week..will he be able to resist him this week after good showing last week?
Having said all this, it is a good field, but 40/1 each is over what I was expecting..

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

adding
2 bully matches @WSEX (1 player vs 2 for 72 holes)
Woods -110 vs Garcia & Mick
using as hedge vs anticipated future match
Singh -120vs Perry & Hart

72 hole matches @ 365 all @ -115
Singh vs Duval
Maruyama vs Choi
Estes vs Calc
Dimarco vs Furyk
also put a little unofficial parlay on these

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Got some outrights on other tours and will transfer when threads are started.
outrights to place @ SIA 1 unit each
Beards:
Doughtery 10/1
Bush:
Robbins 7/1
Redman 11/1
Doolan 12.5/1
Kuehne 12.5/1

Was happy to see Clive is also liking Kuehne on his site page

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

DRAT now I read this after 2 plays on him>

BEST FOOT FORWARD

Vijay Singh is coming off the longest layoff of his career at the Byron Nelson Classic, although not by choice.

``I didn't touch a club for two weeks,'' he said. ``I've NEVER done that before.''

His practice round Tuesday was the first time he had walked a golf course since Sunday at the Masters. Singh has been suffering from an injury in his left foot that he called ``one of the most painful things you can have.''

It began hurting about six months ago, and he had to stretch his calf in bed before he could walk around.

``It wasn't that bad once you warmed it up,'' he said. ``But when it started moving from the bottom to the outside of my foot, then it started affecting my swing.''

He tried sleeping in a boot cast to stabilize his foot, but that caused cramps in his thigh. Singh learned to stack his left foot on top of his right foot while he slept. During his three-week break from the Masters, he worked out the problems by stretching often.

``It feels pretty good now,'' he said.

Singh plans to play the next three tournaments through the Memorial

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (1 unit):

Sergio Garcia to win 14/1 e.w. @ Sports.com
Fresh off his first win of the year in Europe, Garcia has an excellent chance this week of adding his second on the PGA Tour. Finishes of 3rd, 15th and 8th are supportive, but in his two other starts in the Lone Star State, he has finished 1st (2001 Colonial) and 2nd (2001 Tour Championship). These tight courses should reward Garcia's excellent driving whereas most of the other headline names are much more wayward off the tee.

David Toms to win 36/1 e.w. @ Olympic (.5 units to win; .5 units to show)
Toms is anything but wayward off the tee, ranking in the top-20 in all the major stats except driving distance. He comes into the event in solid form and looked a potential winner last week until dropping four shots in four shots on the back nine. He could well make amends this week as the Louisiana man has an impressive record in his neighboring state. In a run dating back to the 2000 Byron Nelson Classic, he has finished in the top-20 in eight of nine events in Texas. The 36/1 looks large for such a player.

Davis Love to win 40/1 e.w. @ Sporting Odds, Victor Chandler or BetDirect
I hate backing Davis Love, but at this price I can't resist the temptation. There is nothing wrong with his current form - he finished 14th when tipped for the Masters having been the 1st round leader and finished 5th in WorldCom Classic, again having been the 1st round leader with an opening 62. There is nothing wrong with his course form - he has played here just once since the 1997 event and lost in a playoff with Jesper Parnevik and Phil Mickelson on that occasion (2000). There is nothing wrong with his record in Texas either - since the end of 1997, he has played in five events in Texas and finished in the top-3 on three occasions, while both the other two 'failings' were still top-15 finishes. I'm sure the price would be lower if this were any other player!

 

[Cartman88]

Outright Plays for this week:

Phil Mickelson each way 14-1
David Duval each way 28-1
Davis Love each way 40-1
Jim Furyk each way 66-1

 

[Cartman88]

Matchups for this week:

Love -115 vs Verplank @ Centrebet
Estes -123 vs Calc @ Canbet
Sluman -103 vs Tway @ Canbet
Howell -111 vs Choi @ Canbet (3 units)

DTB,

Thanks for the info on Singh. There was a couple of Matchups where he looked a reasonable play but I have opted to stay clear for now.

 

[ormond80]

16 and 8 This Year. Let's overcome last weeks loss and go with:

Take F. Funk -110 over C. Beckman 72 holes in Dallas @ Millenium

Happy Gaming

 

[sports student]

Bjorn -123 over Daly (5 dimes)
Roberts-115 ov Allenby (5 dimes)

Daly always seems to be overrated and after coming off his injuries and "mini-stroke" from taking diet pills he is a go against vs. anybody. Roberts has Allenby right down the line on stats for the week. Also playing the same matchups, Bjorn -118 and Roberts -115 in the first round. Good luck

 

[Clive]

Waiting for some of the more academically inclined within this forum to come up with a theory about which set of prices to take at Sports.com...so to four places, all mentioned here previously, I've gone for;
Leonard 50/1
Verplank 50/1

and a rather speculative 28/1 Duval who looks nicely priced at Surrey.

As yet, I have resisted the temptation to back Davis, but I may need to disable my PC to insure against a moment of weakness before start time.

 

[Stanley]

Matchup plays (1 unit):

Mike Weir to beat Mark Calcavecchia -110 @ Surrey
Can't find any inspiring matchups out there this week, but Weir is a perfect matchup player. Does not convert enough chances to win tournaments, but last year he made the cut in 20 of 23 events and has done the same in all his nine starts this year, in which he has finished in the top-25 in his last five events. By comparison, Calc missed twice as many cuts last year and has done the same in four of eleven starts this year. Has played better in the last few weeks, but he has a very poor record in this event.

Vijay Singh to beat Ernie Els +100 @ Intertops
Basically dismissing Vijay's recent foot injury as he had been able to practice before he walked his first round since the Masters on Tuesday and he plans to play the next three tournaments. He wouldn't do that if he was still injured. Should be a welcome return to Texas as he won the Houston Open in March and has a very good record in this State overall. The same cannot be said for Els who won this event in 1995, but failed to register another top-10 finish in Texas until the 2001 Tour Championship. Very poor performance from Els last week, so will side the Fijian at this price.

 

[Stanley]

Isn't there an Elliott's 'Law of the Sports.com' ???

It says take the 4 places if the odds are more than 1/8 higher than the 5 place odds.

I'll save the formal proof until the Appendix



By this law I should have taken Goosen @ 16/1 (4 places) rather than 14/1 (5 places), but just wanted one more chance of getting a payout even if it was for a smaller amount

 

[Myron]

Here are my plays:

David Toms e/w at 36-1 OLY for 1 unit
David Duval e/w at 30-1 OLY for 2 units
Mike Weir e/w at 44 -1 OLY for 1 unit
Jim Furyk e/w 50-1 OLY for 1 unit
Shigeki Maruyama e/w 100-1 OLY for 1 unit

WSEX Markets

25 shares of Weir for $2
15 shares of Furyk for $2
8 shares of Singh for $4

Weir has a tendency to get off to fast starts and die. I'm hoping he is close to the lead going into the weekend and I can sell half my shares for $4 each and have the other shares free. I'll let my Furyk and Singh shares ride to the end.

 

[lostinamerica]

Matchups and Groups
YTD: 28-32 (-7.55*)
Last 3 Weeks: 1-8
Outrights
3-27 (-6.50*)

Wagers and analysis for this week . . .

Outrights @ 0.30*:

Garcia (13/1 To Win) @ 5dimes
Biting on the confidence and focus Sergio might bring in this spot, and the course changes that favor his accurate driving.

Price(40/1 e.w. 4 places) @ Olympic
Price has emerged as this season's poster boy for the old guard. His recent form indicates to me that he is holing putts. His pedigree tells me that winning is his only yardstick for achievement. Has yet to seriously contend, but there is certainly a track record here. And didn't Price used to live in the Dallas area?

Parnevik(60/1 e.w. 4 places) @ Olympic
I have not been alone in catching some players a week ahead of the curve (which in my sports handicapping experience is usually a better proposition than after the horse has left the barn). While I can't shake the feeling that Colonial is a better spot for Parnevik, I'll stick with Jesper again this week.

And a few bucks @ 5dimes on some longshots: Cink @ 80/1 (I was looking for Cink to show something last week and I'll stick with him this week); Maruyama @80/1 (would not surprise me to witness a bounce in the step of the Asian contingent on the heels of Choi's victory); Ames @ 80/1 (because he doesn't taste like chopped liver); and Stankowski @ 150/1 (because that's a lot).

Since my outrights on the PGA Tour have been wanting, I'll take a couple of stabs at the European Tour:

Goosen(10/1 e.w. 5 places) @ Bet365:
The mighty Goosen has worn the mantle of U.S. Open champion with distinction. The bigger the event, the harder he has become to overlook.

Scott(22/1 e.w. 5 places) @ Bet365
The youth may be poised to place a significant mark on the season, or to regress for a short while.

To be continued . . .