How are the picks so far? SU: 31-13 ... ATS: 19-17-1
Mountain West Game of the Week
BYU (6-0) at TCU (6-1), 8:00 EST Thursday, Oct. 16
Why to watch: Welcome to part one of a three-part series that?ll decide the Mountain West title, a possible spot in the BCS, and maybe, if everything breaks the right way, discussion about a national championship appearance. TCU has one of the nation?s best defenses, but the team has flown under the radar, and has been outright dismissed, after the 35-10 loss at Oklahoma. The national perception can change in a big hurry with a win over BYU, and if the Horned Frogs can win out, they have a date with Utah on November 6th, they might have a legitimate claim to a BCS spot. On the other side, this is BYU?s prove-it game. It wouldn?t be like beating Texas in Austin or Georgia in Athens, but beating TCU in Fort Worth would be BYU?s best victory by far, even more so than the 59-0 win over UCLA. Everyone wants to see more out of the nation?s eighth-ranked team. While fans of BCS conferences might balk, yes, the Cougars should be in the national title debate if they can beat TCU, Air Force, and Utah all on the road over the next six weeks.
Why BYU might win: Defense. Think BYU, and most will think Ty Detmer, Steve Young, Jim McMahon, and high-flying offense after high-flying offense. While Max Hall, Austin Collie and Dennis Pitta are helping to keep up the tradition, it?s the defense that?s crushing and killing for the Cougars this year. Utah State scored 14 garbage-time points in the 34-14 win over the Aggies last week. Outside of those two scores, BYU has allowed a total of three points over the last four games. TCU?s offense has been hit or miss, and while the weather conditions were lousy, last week?s 13-7 win over Colorado State wasn?t awe inspiring.
Why TCU might win: Defense. BYU hasn?t seen a pass rush anywhere near as fierce as it?s about to face, and that?s part of the reason why the O line has only given up two sacks all year long. Yes, the Cougar front five really is good, but now it?s about to be under attack from a line that leads the way for nation?s leader in sacks, total defense, run defense and is second-best in tackles for loss. This group applies pressure from all angles and camps out in opposing backfields. Yes, Sam Bradford and OU hung 35 on the Horned Frogs, but he was beaten up and knocked around getting sacked four times. Hall will have to get rid of the ball in a hurry, and that favors the TCU secondary.
Who to watch: TCU junior QB Marcus Jackson has been fine when given the chance, rushing for 115 yards against SMU and 131 against San Diego State. But he?s not the passer or the big-game leader that Andy Dalton is. Dalton made the TCU offense go before getting knocked out with a knee injury, and while he threw for 818 yards in the first five games with just two interceptions, and has run for five scores, he hasn?t thrown a touchdown pass. Dalton will get the start this week.
What will happen: It?ll be a great battle. Each team?s defense will hold the opposing offense to next to nothing for long stretches, but TCU?s D will be a bit better. TCU will be slow and steady with the running game, but it?ll get two big plays from the defense that?ll lead to scores in the second half for the thrilling win.
CFN Prediction: TCU 20 ? BYU 17 ?. Line: BYU -2
Must See Rating: (5 The Real Housewives of Atlanta ? 1 Celebrity Rehab With Dr. Drew) ? 4.5
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