Call 'em like I see 'em

lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
NCAA YTD: 35-33 (-2.23*)
NFL YTD: 21-16 (+3.70*)


Fresno State(-7)(-125) over Boise State (1.50*)
- - See Below.

Wisconsin(-2') over Iowa (1*)
- - See Below.

Minnesota(-5) over Michigan State (1*)
- - See Below.


As is my norm every year, I doubt if prior to today I've made ten full unit wagers on Monday all year in NCAA and NFL combined, but I do O.K. :) with those I do . . . I see a better team with better motivation in all three, and "no thank you" is my only response when it comes to being on the other side, but I'll keep my eyes open for reasons to think otherwise . . . Just a definite lean to Auburn(+2') is all I can muster at this point.


GL


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Fresno Bee
(11.6.05):


No chance Fresno State looked past woeful San Jose State.

Smash right through the Spartans was a more accurate description Saturday.

With reviled Boise State five days away and counting, and No.1 USC on deck, No.21 Fresno State managed to focus its unadulterated attention on the shellacking at hand Saturday, even as a homemade sign in the crowd beckoned, "Bring on Boise."

The Bulldogs thumped the visiting Spartans 45-7 in a Western Athletic Conference game before a sellout crowd of 41,039 in Bulldog Stadium.

No sooner was their sixth straight victory complete did the Bulldogs immediately shift the conversation to what's next: Boise State, Thursday at Bulldog Stadium before a national ESPN audience.

"We are ramping up for something big," Fresno State coach Pat Hill said. "And, we've got something big coming Thursday."

Both teams are 5-0 in the WAC. Fresno State is 7-1 overall, Boise State is 7-2 after beating New Mexico State, 56-6.

No wonder Fresno State fans and players couldn't wait to put the 70th edition of Spartans-Bulldogs football to bed.

"Everybody's been waiting for this game," senior quarterback Paul Pinegar said. "I think we've set the table for it."

Unlike last season, when the Bulldogs took a two-game losing streak into the Broncos game, the Bulldogs are hammering away full-speed ahead.

Pinegar, who became a father on Thursday, threw career touchdowns 68, 69 and 70 to tie David Carr for the school career touchdown pass record.

Running back Wendell Mathis scored a touchdown for the eighth time in eight games while bowling to his third straight 100-yard game.

All the defense had to complain about was a third-quarter rushing touchdown that spoiled its attempt at the first shutout of the season.

"This team is hitting on all cylinders right now," said Mathis, who had 21 carries for 105 yards with a 3-yard touchdown run.

"We ran the ball, and we passed the ball ... very well. The passing game, whew, it was great."

The re-emergence of the passing game was a new twist for a Fresno State team that has relied on bruising running, stingy defense and special teams for its first 7-1 start since 1991.

Since his career-best 418yards in Week2 at Oregon, Pinegar hadn't thrown for more than 228 yards in a game.

He had more than half that, 116, in the first quarter Saturday, and threw for 224 yards by halftime.

"We talked about that before the game, getting things going," Pinegar said. "We're going in the right direction."

Pinegar's 27-yard touchdown pass to Adam Jennings, who made the sideline catch at the pylon, gave Fresno State a 7-0 lead on its first drive.

His 37-yard touchdown pass to Paul Williams on the second play of the third quarter gave the Bulldogs a game-over 31-0 lead.

Pinegar also weaved through traffic on a 5-yard touchdown run for a 21-0 lead in the second quarter, and capped the scoring with a 16-yard touchdown pass to Matt Rivera on the first play of the fourth quarter.

"The pass has always been there when we needed it," said Williams, who had a game-high six catches for 137 yards. "We just haven't always needed it."

They did against the Spartans, who banked on stopping the run with eight-man fronts.

Mathis broke a 38-yard run in Fresno State's opening drive. The rest, he said, was "tough sledding." He needed three carries for 14 yards in the fourth quarter, with the game well in hand, to burst the 100-yard mark.

"I'd be lying if I said I wasn't frustrated all night," Mathis said. "That wasn't an easy 100yards."

Nothing came easily to San Jose State.

One Spartans quarterback, Adam Tafralis, completed 2 of 8 passes for 13 yards. The other quarterback, J.P. Greco, was

0 for 8 in his first college start.

Yonus Davis did break through the defense for 136yards on 16 carries, while Al Guidry had nine carries for 65yards and a 29-yard touchdown, just the sixth rushing touchdown against the Bulldogs this season.

A moral victory, at best, as the Spartans slumped to 1-8 under first-year coach Dick Tomey.

"They are a top-20 team and we are not close," Tomey said. "They whooped us thoroughly. We've been in every game in conference until them."

Now, Fresno State moves on to the conference game of the year.

"Our players had a lot on the line," Hill said. "They were not going to be denied. Everything is headed to the next game. It'll be what you pay your dollar for."
 
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lostinamerica

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West Virginia(-14) over Cincinnati (1*)
- - Just as much of the fawning over the ascendancy of WV HC Rich Rodriquez at his alma mater was giving way to some questions and some faultfinding, he steps up with the best coaching job of his five year tenure. The prize of a BCS Bowl slot is now tantalizingly real for the Mountaineers . . . Cinci is heading in the right direction again, and while again hosting a rated team in the home closer, is carrying realistic dreams of a Big East bowl slot that surely causes head shaking in some quarters . . . In a big game for both programs, and venturing an opinion on which team is better equipped for the opportunity and pressure of the stretch drive, I like the chances of West Virginia's speed, athleticism, balance and talent delivering enough efficiency (vis-a-vis the stats going in) and favorable matchups and big plays (vis-a-vis the stats going in) to cover a number like this.


***********************************

WV Qbs; Cinci run/pass (snaps/totals)


AND


Coachspeak???

Charleston Gazette
(wvgazette.com)
11/8/05


MORGANTOWN ? Mark Dantonio insists that his Cincinnati football team will try to run the ball against West Virginia Wednesday night.

It?s not a matter of being stubborn, but simply that running the ball is what the Bearcats do best.

Good luck with that.

West Virginia leads the Big East in rushing defense and allows less than 100 yards per game. It is the strength of a Mountaineer defense that also leads the league in total defense and is second in scoring defense.

Still, when the No. 16 Mountaineers (7-1, 4-0 Big East) visit Nippert Stadium for a 7:30 p.m. game with Cincinnati (4-4, 2-2), the Bearcats really have few other options but to try and run.

?I think absolutely we have to try and establish a running game,?? Dantonio said. ?That?s because that?s just who we are. We?re not the type of football team that can throw 60 times a game and be ultra successful. We have to be able to do a little of both and stay balanced and keep them off balance by doing that.

?The strength of our team has been our running backs and you have to go with your strength. It will be a difficult challenge for us, but we need to be able to do a little bit of everything in this game.??

Cincinnati has three running backs who are all built like trains. Starter Bradley Glatthaar is a 5-foot-11, 225-pound sophomore and the team?s rushing leader with 506 yards. His backups are 6-2, 225-pound junior Greg Moore and 6-1, 210-pound sophomore Butler Benton, who have combined for 533 yards. Oh, and the fullback is 6-4, 282-pound Doug Jones, who seldom carries the ball but is a force as a blocker.

Cincinnati averages just 155 yards per game rushing, but will pound it inside all night long unless a defense stops it.

But that?s where West Virginia has been strongest, allowing just 94 yards per game on the ground. That?s among the top 15 in the country.

?I would say their greatest strength right now is that they stop the run and they make the game one dimensional,?? Dantonio said. ?When you?re doing that, your offense gets more opportunities. Plus, there?s more bad things that can happen to you when you have to throw that ball downfield.??

What does Dantonio see when he looks at West Virginia?s unusual 3-3 stack defense?

Well, he sees solid players who are ingrained in the system and can play fast. And it is a defense that is flexible enough that no matter what Cincinnati tries to do with formations, the Mountaineers can adjust.

?I think what makes it so good is it?s easily adjustable because they?re sort of a 3-5 defense. It adjusts very easily to a multitude of formations that they see throughout the season,?? Dantonio said. ?I think they get that from having to play against their own offense.??
 

lostinamerica

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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Wisconsin(-2') over Iowa (1*)
- - In the last three meetings against the University of Iowa that formerly employed him, Badger's HC Barry Alvarez has been stymied big time by Iowa's brick wall of a defensive front four (the game plan in a 3-20 loss in 2002 can only be described as ridiculously hatched and stubbornly executed; the tweaking since hasn't been good enough). I'm pretty sure I know what underbelly of the Hawkeyes Coach Alvarez wants to test in this game . . . During the promising first quarter of last week's Northwestern tilt, Iowa radio announcer Eddie Podolak noted with his typical boosterism that their fly/spy on the locker room wall was reporting that Iowa DC Norm Parker was imploring his defenders to get after it "like bulldogs with rabies;" that's what it looked like for much of the first 55 minutes or so, after which they couldn't stop a runny nose down the stretch. I don't see a sweet spot for the Iowa defense to head back on the road again in a desperate search for a bowl qualifying sixth win and delivering a superior or equal effort this week . . . Rightly or wrongly, when it comes to clues as to whether Vegas has an opinion on a game, a line of +2' raises my suspicions that Vegas wants the dog players tearing their hair out, and when the line is -3' the books want to kidney punch the chalkeaters. I anticipated a line of -4 for this one, but now I don't think it budges either way from +2' (It just went to +3 at Olympic within minutes of my post :mj07: ) . . . Just my take on whether Senior Day sees a seasoned team present their legendary Big Ten coach with a two game losing streak as his conference departing legacy.

GL

**********************************


Milwaukee Journal/Sentinel:

"We could not have played any harder," Ferentz said of the loss to Northwestern. "You have to play full-go against Northwestern and we did that. Now we have a challenge to bounce back, but I know we will do that." . . . "We have two games left against two great teams," redshirt freshman defensive tackle Matt Kroul said after the loss to Northwestern. "We played our butts off and flew around, but we just have to come away with these next two games."

Mobile quarterbacks have been to UW what Kryptonite is to Superman . . . (Iowa's Drew) Tate doesn't beat teams with designed runs but he uses his mobility to buy time for his receivers and UW's defenders have contributed to their own demise with shoddy tackling . . . UW will not suffer from a lack of motivation. It will be Alvarez's final home game as UW coach. The seniors will be honored. And, the remote chance exists that UW could still steal a share of the Big Ten title. "We're still playing for a lot," senior wide receiver Brandon Williams said. "It's the last home game for the seniors. Camp Randall will be rocking as usual. We'll be ready. There's no doubt in my mind. We'll be ready."

Wisconsin football coach Barry Alvarez is determined to ensure that the focus of UW's Big Ten Conference finale Saturday against Iowa remains on the team, particularly 16 seniors playing their final home game, and not the retiring head coach. That won't be an easy task. Thanks to the work of Mueller Sports Medicine & Quench Gum, 31 billboards honoring Alvarez's 16-year run as UW's coach were erected Tuesday throughout Dane County. There are nine different designs. "We wanted to thank Coach Alvarez for all his efforts over the years and congratulate him on all his various accomplishments," said Curt Mueller, owner of Mueller Sports Medicine in Prairie du Sac. "This is his week, and we wanted to help make sure that it was special for him, his family and for the whole community."
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Fresno State(-7)(-125) over Boise State (1.50*)
- - I'm a degenerate, which explains why this game has crossed my mind over scores of different days during the last 380+ days since these teams last met - usually including some thought about how many of the players and coaches in the Fresno program were probably also thinking about Boise State at that very same moment - rarely with thoughts about how Fresno would end up being their own worst enemy in this game . . . I've seen Fresno hurt by the pass this year and last, it can definitely be done, but IMO I've also been watching HC Pat Hill's best team since I became a player in the "era of offshore books" (I'd say otherwise if that's what I thought I'd been tracking all season). I can't cap this game and say there is over a touchdown difference between these teams, but I can say there is a solid angle on the table that has me saying "no thank you" when it comes to being on the other side. (EDIT: Adding from AR182 post: "Play on 7+ favs in at least triple revenge if they lost last 3 head to head by 10+pts = 37-9 ats (80%) last 20 years...play fresno . . .This system is perfect since 2003....7-0 su & ats & 2-0 su/ats this season, with every team winning by at least 17." That's the catechism ingrained at least in my subconcious that would have me saying Boise on the ML is a better play than with the points.)
Idaho Statesman

GL
 
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lostinamerica

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Oct 10, 2001
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Between Green Bay and Iowa City
Minnesota(-5) over Michigan State (1*)
- - I've looked at this game and thought about it and looked at it some more, and whenever the game turning plays occur, I keep seeing the grittier Gophers being the right side in this one.
Minneapolis Star Tribune


Pittsburgh(-12) over Connecticut (1*)
- - Connecticut started the season in rebuilding mode and were reduced further by injuries, and has been out of sorts and stuck there in many ways for quite a while. I see Pitt bringing to this game as much bounce as they have displayed all season.
Hartford Courant


GL
 
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