can somebody rationally explain how the cubs are worth......

[gman2]

-250 tonight?

im a huge fan of prior, and he's arguably the best young pitcher in the game, but does anyone realize there's another pitcher in this game who also happens to be one of the top young arms in baseball? brad penny is pretty fu/ckin good, bringing 95 mph heat with a nice breaking ball.

im not sure if anyone recalls the one time he pitched against the cubs this season but he was LIGHTS-FU/CKIN-OUT. 8 innings and 1 run, 8 strikeouts. his fastball was electric that game.

clearly, the line reflects the fact that the cubs are down 0-1 in the series, but im amazed this line keeps climbing.

the cubs have never really hit penny very well.

if anyone can justify -250 on prior, let me know.

im very objective and knew there would be a price to pay for prior tonight, but i expected -180 or -190.

250 is nuts.

1 unit........marlins (+230) over cubs

gl boys

 

[s.e.c guru]

the marlins have by far the best overall team. anybody that lays 250 on the cubs ihas more money than he has brains.

 

[Cie]

im not sure if anyone recalls the one time he pitched against the cubs this season but he was LIGHTS-FU/CKIN-OUT. 8 innings and 1 run, 8 strikeouts. his fastball was electric that game.

Not to say that the Cubs should be -250 tonight, but I that game was in Miami on 8 days rest. Penny has pitched much better @ home.

GL...........

 

[puckfan]

i agree - this line is crazy. however the cubs are desperate and are backed by an amazing pitcher. im gonna take a chance on the cubs -1.5 and hope for a 3-1, 4-0 type win

 

[greed]

It is to much.

It is to much.

Penny is very good and I bet everyone and their grandma will bet the Cubs tonight. Anyone taking Prior at 2.50 is betting with their heart and not their head. This is where vegas makes their money. Both games today the favorite is overpriced. Although both may win it is to high of a price to pay. Another factor to put in is the Cub bullpen is mediocre and that their outfield defense is terrible. Either take the Marlins or stay off the game. This time of year you get a lot of bettors where these are the only baseball games they take all year. GLTA

 

[johnnyonthespot]

No, there's no reason that Prior should be going off at -250, but I think this is a case where the line is much more skewed to public perception than being a true representation of the matchup tonight. Prior has been as close to unhittable as you can get over his last 10 starts, and I think everyone's just betting that that will continue. So I do believe that there is definite value in getting Florida at +230.

However, the fact remains that there is still a very good chance that Prior will dominate tonight. Last time out he was as dominant as ever against a Braves team that had never faced him before. Nerves only appeared to be an issue in the 1st; after that he settled down pretty quick. The Marlins have also never faced him, and that's a huge advantage for him. Also, while most of the Cubs have had little to no success against Penny, a couple starters have had real good luck against him:

Ramirez 4/12 .333 1 2B 1 RBI
Alou 5/9 .556 1 2B
Gonzalez 4/9 .444 3 2B

So, anyway, definite value in Penny tonight, but I still think the Cubs will end up with the W. Perhaps the best bet tonight is the under?

GL

 

[gman2]

cie grant:

good counterpoint. i havent looked at penny's home and away splits. perhaps he is more effective in miami. just remember watching that cubs/marlins game on wgn and penny was outstanding.

it just seems to me that people think this is a pitching mismatch, when thats the furthest thing from the truth.

prior clearly cream of the young pitching crop, but penny is no bum at all.

gl man

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Re: It is to much.

Re: It is to much.

their outfield defense is terrible

I wouldn't go that far. They are average in every sense of the word. Alou, Lofton, and Sosa will make all the plays they are supposed to make, and Lofton has very good range. Sosa has improved his D significantly over the past couple of years; he no longer chases balls all the way to the wall only to have them bounce 20 feet away from him, and he generally makes good decisions in deciding when to lay out for one. The big weakness in Sosa's D is that apparently there is no spanish word for "cut-off man" 'cause I've never seen him hit one ever. None of the Cub OF are going to throw you out at home, though, but I don't think that makes them terrible. They are neither an asset or a liability; hence average.

 

[Randercity]

I have to agree the line is out of whack considering the teams involved and last nite's game. FLA came back every time and finally was able to put the CUBS away. However, if this game is fishy, it's due to the MARLINS! Pun intended...

Anyway, the line is largely inflated on the CUBS, which produces a huge overlay on FLORIDA. WHY would the books want $$ on FLA is my question.... it seems they are begging you to take the MARLINS and in my experience, VEGAS wasn't built giving money away. I don't know, maybe I'm way off base here and having been a CUB fan my entire life I'm biased, but it just seems to me that FLA is where the MAN wants the money to go, which to me is saying CUBS WIN!! CUBS WIN!!

I made the mistake of playing CHI last nite due to my euphoria, not fully looking at the game. FLA HAD to have last nite's game or the series was potentially over. You let CHI win game one with their weakest pitcher, and you're in trouble. JOHNSON/SCHILLING took the DBACKS a long way, all the way a few years ago, and I can see WOOD/PRIOR doing it this year for the CUBS.

FLA got the win they wanted last nite.... by winning the prior game in this series, it's now PRIOR time for the CUBS and getting a W tonite will be their only PRIORity! No need to worry about a bullpen tonite or PRIOR tightening because it will be nice and balmy for OCT tonite. PRIOR pitches a CG again and CUBS win by 2, 3-1. Penny throws another good game, just met up with another pitcher on a mission.

Series goes back to FLORIDA 1-1 and CUBS win game 4 with WOOD.

 

[ontyme]

i totaly agree with Rander----Books want florda money---I'm mean seriously what else does Mark Prior have to prove---U guys keep talking about his high pitch count--He has been doing high pitch counts for 1 and a half months now. Keep fading Prior and it will effect your bankroll. Flordia will not touch him. Its funny how quick people forget--this kid is filthy----that won't change tonight---u will see.

 

[Waldo]

"im a huge fan of prior, and he's arguably the best young pitcher in the game"

You can take either the word arguably or young out of that sentence and you'd be right.

 

[Cie]

Well put, Waldo.