Can Tulsa's 3-3-5 defense keep the Bronco ground game in check?

IE

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Since the schedule was released earlier this year, the Tulsa game has been cause for great consternation among Bronco Nation. How will Boise State handle Tulsa's no-huddle, fast break offense? Will a Wednesday night road game affect the outcome? Can the Bronco offense find success against that vaunted Tulsa D?

OK, so that last question wasn't exactly on anyone's mind. But after five games of the 2009 season, Tulsa's defense looks better than ever. Can the Golden Hurricane shut down the run on Wednesday?


Tulsa's run defense through five games

Surprise, surprise, Tulsa has been very strong on run defense this season. How strong? I can't really tell.

* Tulane, ranked 96th in rushing offense; 39 yards against Tulsa
* New Mexico, ranked 106th in rushing offense; 55 yards against Tulsa
* Oklahoma, ranked 24th in rushing offense; 193 yards against Tulsa
* Sam Houston State, a Division I-AA team; 141 yards against Tulsa
* Rice, ranked 111th in rushing offense; 47 yards against Tulsa

Any time you can hold multiple teams to less than 60 yards rushing, you are definitely doing something right. Let me be clear about that. Tulsa's run defense is certainly not bad by any stretch of the imagination.

However, their No. 16 national ranking against the run is not quite as threatening as it looks. Out of Tulsa's five opponents this season, only one is in the top 95 in the country in running the football. Two teams are 100 or worse, and a third doesn't play Division 1-A football. Tulsa should be shutting down the running games for these teams because the running games for these teams just aren't very good.

Also, in each of Tulsa's four wins, the Golden Hurricane has been ahead late in games, forcing opponents to abandon the run. Rushing defense always looks better on teams that are ahead all the time.



Boise State's rushing offense through five games

Ask any Bronco fan whether they'd take Boise State's rush offense from this year over BSU's rush offense from last year, and the answer will almost always be, "Yeah, duh." The Broncos have looked better running the ball in 2009. But looks can be deceiving.


Over the first five games, the Broncos have had eight rushing plays go for 25 yards or longer, averaging a staggering 49.8 yards on them. The other 177 runs have averaged 3.7 yards a carry. Versus the Aggies, BSU netted just 3.1 yards per tote, and its longest run was only 13 yards by Jeremy Avery. The Broncos are hoping for a better sprinkling of those 10 to 15-yard bursts that have been a staple of their running game over time--a staple of any good running game.


So wise. He's like a miniature Buddha covered in hair.


Keys to the running matchup on Wednesday

It will be interesting to see which part of the Bronco offense that Tulsa plans to take away. Will they focus on the run to make Kellen Moore beat them? Will they take away the deep pass and force the Broncos to chip away? We should be able to tell after the first couple series on Wednesday night. If the running game ends up becoming a big factor, here are some keys to watch to see who will get the upper hand.

Stick with your assignments

This one works both ways. Tulsa will want to play assignment football, making sure no one gets out of position or overreacts to misdirection. On the other side of the ball, the Boise State offensive line needs to make the right block and get on the guy they're assigned to. Last week against UC Davis, BSU had multiple missed assignments, especially near the goalline, and it cost them in the final rushing numbers.

Defensive penetration

Making plays in the backfield will be a big key for Tulsa's run defense. Boise State's running plays from the shotgun can be stymied by pressure up the middle and off the ends. The myriad sweeps and reverses that the Broncos like simply won't work if backfield pressure is there.

Broken tackles

Doug Martin has shown a propensity for busting through tackles, and Jeremy Avery is always hard to bring down. If they can work some more magic against Tulsa, the Bronco ground game will certainly benefit. Flip side: Tulsa needs to fly to the ball to cover for anyone who misses a tackle.

Jeremy Avery in space

Boise State does some creative things to get Avery the ball with room to operate. If Avery can get to the edge or find some holes up the middle, he'll have a good game.

Matchups from motion and shifts

Another Bronco staple is presnap movement, and Tulsa will have to be ready to adapt to what the Broncos throw at them.


--BroncoNation
 

IE

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What other factors might come into play?

Pass rush. Tulsa has allowed 19 sacks so far this year, and they are minus a top-flight LT. A few Boise State sacks would go a long ways toward ending Tulsa drives and neutralizing the Golden Hurricane offense.

Special teams. Kyle Wilson has yet to break a punt return, but his counterpart has. Kick coverage will be key, and any chances Kyle Brotzman gets, he'll need to convert. Tulsa can score in bunches, and Boise State will need to get points whenever they can.

CB play. The Broncos looked shaky last week against UC Davis with Brandyn Thompson and Jerrell Gavins on the corners. Will Kyle Wilson's return make a big difference? I'm curious what kind of schemes Justin Wilcox will draw up to defend Tulsa. The 3-3-5 maybe? Something new? You don't want to give that guy extra time to plan for you. Right, Chip Kelly?

Kellen Moore. He often gets lost in pregame build-up like this, but he will have just as much impact on Wednesday as anyone else. If he's sharp, he could easily take the Broncos on long marches down the field, which would help keep the Bronco defense fresh and the Tulsa offense on the sideline.

Coaching. Wilcox and Harsin will certainly have some tricks up their sleeves for this one. Coach Pete is sure to have the team ready to play following last week's semi-letdown. Can Coach Pete outcoach Todd Graham? Will Tulsa have any surprises for the Broncos?

--BroncoNation
 
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