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College Football
****BEST BET
CLEMSON* over MARYLAND by 35
The A.C.C. Atlantic Division standings create an interesting notion ? Ralph Friedgan?s Terrapins are tied for first place, and can control the race by winning down the stretch. As such, this game has a completely different set-up that what it is ? a complete mismatch between the superior team coming in with a chip on its shoulder, and a pretender that is ready to snap like a dry autumn twig after a draining run of games. Off of that dismal showing at Virginia Tech last Thursday we can expect Tommy Bowden?s Tigers to play with a special fire here, especially now that they are forced to look up in the standings at Maryland. An O.L. that might be the nation?s best can turn that energy into dominance of the line of scrimmage, and that opens the door for bursts by James Davis and C. J. Spiller against a Terrapin defense that was helpless against similar speed in an earlier whipping at West Virginia (the Mountaineers ran for 340 yards at 7.9 per carry). And with Chansi Stuckey having a full week to get healthy again there will be much more rhythm to the passing game than we saw at Blacksburg last week. Meanwhile Maryland lacks similar playmakers, and do not be fooled for a moment by those three straight A.C.C. wins ? they came by a combined 11 points, and film study would not indicate that they were the better squad in any of them. When teams like this fall, it is often a crash, especially in Death Valley against this class ? the Tigers mauled Georgia Tech and North Carolina by a combined 83-14 in their only two home league games so far. CLEMSON 41-6.
***BEST BET
L.S.U. over TENNESSEE* by 17
Many times a ?first? in life will create some rather intense memories, although they are not always good. As such, the first defeat that Les Miles suffered as L.S.U. coach is one that has been haunting him since the final whistle that night; a 30-27 overtime loss to Tennessee in Baton Rouge last year in which a 21-0 halftime lead got away. Now that motivation sparks Miles and the Tigers to a top effort in this one, and all of the other pieces are also in place for them to get the job done. With the line in the right place, we have our piece to complete the puzzle as well. In what will be billed as a major S.E.C. showdown we may instead see this turn into a mismatch between a team that is not only much more physical at the line of scrimmage than their opponent, but also much fresher as well, which accentuates that edge. L.S.U. not only had a bye last week to focus on the bitter memories of LY?s defeat, but having coasted by Fresno State and Kentucky by an 87-6 count in the two previous games, they are as fresh as they have been since the opening week. Contrast that with Tennessee coming in off of draining wins vs. Alabama and South Carolina, and the line of scrimmage belongs to the Tigers. Given that Tennessee can not run anyway, it creates huge headache for an offense that also has its passing game shut down. The L.S.U. pass defense may be the best in the land, allowing only 49% completions, 4.9 yards per pass, and having a great ratio of 11 interceptions vs. only three touchdown passes, which is more than Erik Ainge can handle without ground support. L.S.U. 30-13.
**PREFERRED
Arkansas over South Carolina* by 14
Steve Spurrier has managed to pull off some semi-miracles the past two seasons despite having only limited personnel. But now he faces his worst headache, with his depth-shy squad low on gas as the tough schedule takes its toll, and now having to face a team that can not be beaten with tricks alone. The Razorbacks are going to line up and play smashmouth, and not only bring the freshness to do it, having coasted vs. only lightweights the last three weeks, but also the focus. They were among Spurrier?s victims last year, when they dominated the line of scrimmage to the tune of 356-187 in total offense, as Darren McFadden had as many yards rushing as South Carolina?s entire offensive output. But somehow the Gamecocks walked away with a 14-10 win. Not this time, with the Arkansas ground game firmly controlling matters, and an offense that did not have a single turnover in easily winning its last two S.E.C. games (including a dominating 27-10 rout at Auburn), will not give anything away this time. ARKANSAS 28-14.
Tulsa over Houston* by 12
According to the standings, this is for the top spot in the Western Division of Conference USA, and the winner goes a long way towards cementing a berth in the league championship game. But on the field it just is not that close - the gap between these two defenses is about as wide as we will ever find for a game in this price range. Even what seemed to be a rout for the Cougars on the scoreboard vs. Central Florida was anything but that ? the game was tied 31-31 in the fourth quarter, and they allowed a weak Golden Knight offense to roll for season highs in points and yards (520). With Houston showing no ability to stop either the run or the pass this game is controlled by Paul Smith and the balanced Hurricane attack, and not only do they have the balance to attack all Cougar weaknesses, but they are the ideal kind of team to play on the road, with a precision that has seen them only turn the ball over 10 times all season. That polish has led to an 8-0 ATS run on the conference road the past two seasons, and it continues here. TULSA 33-21.
Brigham Young over Colorado State* by 24
We have been getting a great ride from Bronco Mendehall and his Cougars this season, with two easy wins at the top of these pages, and while a crowded card at the top forces them a bit lower this week, we are not about to step away from the ride. If anything they have not completely flexed their muscles yet, largely coasting in the second half of their three October conference games after leading San Diego State, U.N.L.V. and Air Force by a stunning 89-10 at halftime. This one also has a chance to get out of hand early, with that superbly-balanced Cougar offense once again dominating a defense that lacks the personnel to match up, and they continue to get the most of any opportunities, with only two turnovers through four conference games. Meanwhile the early loss of Kyle Bell has combined with some injuries to the O.L. that leaves the Rams without any semblance of a ground attack ? just 64 yards per game vs. lined opponents. If you can not run you can not keep John Beck & Co. off the field, so it just becomes a matter of time. B.Y.U. 40-16.
Rice over U.T.E.P. by 1
These two are tied at 2-2 in the Conference USA standings, but there is a world of difference in terms of attitude. While the Miners are disconsolate after that second half collapse at Tulsa, having expected much better things this season, the Owls are quite happy to be where they are in Todd Graham?s debut as head coach. And the truth is that they are even further along than the marketplace has accounted for, which gives us a great line to exploit here. A brutal non-conference schedule has kept hidden the Rice improvements, especially when we factor in that emerging QB Chase Clement was injured and did not play in any of those defeats. With him in the lineup they are a solid 4-1 ATS this season, and since his return in the last four games the offense is singing to tunes of 36.5 points and 424.5 yards per game. Now with two full weeks to prepare Graham not only has a chance to get some wounded bodies healthy again, but also to reach deeper inside of the playbook, and the Miner defense is hardly a dominating unit. RICE 28-27.