CAPPERS MUST SEE..MUST..

[Old School]

TOLEDO at WILM.


break this game down folks..


need feed back here folks..I am not good enough at cappin' anything to spot linesmakers errors..but this -7 here at Wilm. sure looks that way to me..

NCCAB is played by kids who can't pee straight yet and anything can happen but man o man this looks like a sweet spot to help the bankroll for hoops.

Will add more to my picks thread on this game and look forward to the feedback..

thanks folks and good luck on all your selections

 

[tig3rs]

it is... it's off by a dozen, i think! i'm already on it! 5 of the 10 plays i've already posted for input from others are off a decent bit today. idk what's going on, but i'm gonna take advantage! usually you have to hunt for numbers that are off like this!

anyone seen RAYMOND?

 

[TONYDAHORSE]

RPI not off by too much from the posted line which has gone up to 8. I agree NC should win the game, and probably cover but need to look into it more. Looks too Good to be true and you know what usually happens then......

 

[tig3rs]

UNCW is 2-0-1 ATS as faves this year and narrowly lost ATS on the road twice to two very good teams. the only road game toledo's kept close was in-state at Dayton. UNCW's got em by 22ppg and 7 is almost toledo's 5ppg better than their opponents. this has gotta be one of the easiest games in a while and if it does turn out to be too good to be true (i haven't found any injuries or weird news) then that's tough luck. but this line is gonna move up and we gotta get on it now!

 

[Old School]

I gotta get work..:mj07:

this damn game looks like a solid winner

I think the RPI and SAG are off purely because of schedule strength..looked at it last night..

not exactly sure..but Wilm played Ind. so it's not like they haven't played a quality team..

Wilm also played College of Charleston who at least usually field a competitive team..

Toledo played ODU [who will be better than expected and who may give Georgetown a fight tonight] who certainly are not projected to be a top 50 club and were destroyed.

This Toledo team has 7 players and that is a stretch..and only 2 are worth a hoot.


if Wilm doesn't score 80 tonite there needs to be an investigation..

this line is going to shot to 10 and I'm going to be madder than hell that I didn't unload.

been wrong before and will be wrong again..but damn this looks like one of those throw in down spots,

 

[Old School]

now 5 unit flat for me..

I refuse to miss this spot..

if he bust me up so be it..


later guys...good luck..

 

[loophole]

fwiw, seahawks have an above average home court edge in their small gym.

 

[TONYDAHORSE]

According to realtime RPI, Toledos competition has all been ranked in the top 100 so far. They kept it close against Vandy, Dayton and beat Misso State.

Tonight they play NC Wilm ranked 205.



Toldeos Schedule so far:

Opponent Opp Rec. Opp Rnk Result
Missouri State 3-1 68 57-53 W
Vanderbilt 5-0 32 70-77 L
Old Dominion 3-3 62 35-66 L
Dayton 3-1 93 70- 76 L
Rhode Island 6-1 56 57-83 L

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

N.C. Wilmington 205 ?????



I know the ppg etc etc favors NC Wilm but the above information makes me think its not such a slam dunk. Don't get me wrong, it is still a good play in my opinion, and I will see what other cappers have to say. Funny, the NY POST line has NC Wilm -2 before all the line changing took place. The Post line is usually off a point or 2 though.

Just information to digest...... Whats everyone else think?

 

[tig3rs]

yeah, vandy game was at home and they were only dogged by 5 points and didnt cover, vandy doesnt really have a defense, tehy're giving up 71ppg, i think the other games are much more telling, even the 57-53 home W... 57 points isn't gonna get it done against a team shooting 48.5% from the field scoring 75+ in regulation so far.

:bigun:

 

[tig3rs]

TONY, as i thought about what you said and looked at my plays for today, i will go ahead and say because of the larger # this is only my #3 or #4 play today... Valpo and Penn State are my #1 and 2 because of the smaller spreads. Valpo by far over penn state (they can play sloppy).

 

[Rakingitin]

This is why I LOVE this board. GREAT idea information sharing on this game. I would add I don't think there is any great home field/court advantage than in college basketball. A team can play 5 to 10 points better in their own gym than they do on the road.

 

[tig3rs]

totally agree with every word of your post. love it.

 

[BUCSnotYUCKS]

This is why I LOVE this board. GREAT idea information sharing on this game. I would add I don't think there is any great home field/court advantage than in college basketball. A team can play 5 to 10 points better in their own gym than they do on the road.

I played college ball, and there DEFINATELY is an advantage. One thing was for sure with me though. It seemed like when we went on the road I played harder and with more energy because I wanted to impress the people who didn't know me.

5-10pts is about right.

As far as Toledo goes, ehhh...They're not very good, but they have played some good teams. Not sure on this one, hmmph

 

[TONYDAHORSE]

Tig3rs,

Im going to look at Valpo since you are on it #1. I'm on the fence about my second pick of the day, waiting to check out line movements. I'll do that after I get a sandwich......

 

[tig3rs]

i typically don't put much value into the concensus % numbers on covers.com but i looked earlier (well after i posted my plays) and valpo's at 71%. typically lots of favorites on there are high concensus picks and i disagree with enough of them to not put much weight into it.

let me know your thoughts on that game and hope to see your post in a little bit. i'm at lunch right now, gonna head back to work. peace

 

[Agent 0659]

Strange but Toledo was sticking out as a play to me, was just waiting to see what the line does but I only grazed things this morning. Watching some games from last night and will cap in a while.

:shrug: :shrug:

 

[TONYDAHORSE]

Tig3rs,

I don't see enough to make Penn State or Valpo a play for me. Just looked at them quickly here at lunch. Penn State schedule so far not impressive, they beat Canisius and St Francis PA. VA Tech has played Gonzaga (and lost) but took Butler (ranked 16 at the time) to O/T. Level of competition offsets the perceived point differential in my opinion. :com:

As for the Valpo game, It is a better choice, from what I see but doesn't the West Mich win over Davidson give you some trepidation? It does for me especially since I was burned on that Davidson game!!! Maybe that gives me cold feet, so take that with a grain of salt. Did you look at the Bradley game? Have any thoughts on it? Early lean on Bradley it seems but have to check the number (5) currently.:shrug:

 

[bej0101]

great info..gl

 

[tig3rs]

i had those same thoughts about West. Michigan but they shot 60%!!! against Davidson and there's not really an answer for that. that was their last game and it was a week ago. valpo's defensive #s for me are what settled it, granted W.Mich did play some better opponents, with the exception of Vanderbilt (who we all know can fire the long ball) Valpo's PPGA #s are solid and they're at home. Valpo holds W. Mich in the 60s and wins at home.

as far as va. tech, they just have not shown anything except for that butler game where they outshot butler, shooting 6-12 from 3 and 52.5% for the game.
Penn State lost 3 in a row down in florida and had to learn a lot playing against 3 decent opponents. i watched all the games and they were outmatched a lot of the time, but coming home and having the home crowd i think they get the job done. so far in this Challenge home team has come away victorious; i'm stickin with it.

for the bradley game, neither defense is any good which means it comes down to shooting and bradley is better there and loyola-chicago did lay an egg a few days ago at purdue, but purdue's defense isn't too shabby. they should win the game, i don't know how much i like em. i'm with you on waiting on some line movement.

 

[TONYDAHORSE]

Tig3rs,

After some lunchtime capping :chew:

I ended up on Fordham as my 2nd play. :shade:

I was considering Bradley but thought 5 was about where it would fall. Leaning Fordham earlier, seeing a few others on Fordham helped me decide.

GL on your plays. I see Mo777 is on Penn St and he is a good capper.