Playoff Prospectus: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals
by Gary Huckabay
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In any given year, at least one or two of the playoff spots wrap up early. Usually, writers from those markets start to madly flail for anything relevant to write about between the time their team clinches a playoff spot, and the time the postseason begins. There's a few stock categories for this type of piece, some of which we've already touched on (excessively), and the rest of which you're painfully familiar with. These topics include, but aren't limited to:
In the postseason, good pitching beats good hitting.
The Diamondbacks/Twins/Whoever are backing into the playoffs.
The A's/Cardinals/Yo' Mama are getting hot right at the right time.
Great defense is what makes the difference in the postseason.
Those late season injuries are going to destroy the D-Backs/Yankees/Pauly Shore
The postseason is where the manager makes the biggest difference.
I could continue, but there's a good chance you've already put your fist/head/sledgehammer through your monitor, and I think you get the idea. The truth is that no one really knows what makes a great postseason team. I've seen a ton of pieces from people who think they know, but there's not a study out there that does a definitive job of identifying particular ballclub traits that make a team more successful in the postseason than in the regular season. If you have one, I'd sure love to see it. At the end of the day, it pretty much comes down to two things:
It's a really good idea to prevent your opponents from scoring more runs than you do, and
These series are really short, and any team that can make the postseason can beat any other team that can make the postseason in a short series.
There are some obvious storylines specific to the Arizona/St. Louis matchup, as derived from the generic list above. Let's lay those out, and address them one by one:
The Diamondbacks would really prefer to have a healthy Luis Gonzalez.
The Diamondbacks are backing into the playoffs.
The Cardinals are peaking at exactly the right time.
The tragedies suffered by the Cardinals have unified the team.
The Diamondback defense couldn't prevent a bunt single by the desiccated remains of William Holden.
It sucks to face Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in three out of five games.
The Diamondbacks would really prefer to have a healthy Luis Gonzalez
Yes, the D-Backs would prefer to have a healthy Luis Gonzalez. But even without him, they're a pretty reasonable offensive squad. The D-Backs have very good depth, and they can move around some combination of Erubiel Durazo, Greg Colbrunn, and Mark Grace depending on whether they're facing a righty or lefty on any given day.
Gonzalez, before suffering a nasty shoulder injury, posted a very serviceable .288/.400/.496 for the season, with about a hundred-point OPS platoon split. The guys most likely to get his time at the plate:
Player OPS Platoon Split (OPS)
Greg Colbrunn 1.004 +246 vs. LHP
Mark Grace .736 +190 vs. LHP (+14 vs. RHP 1999-2001)
Erubiel Durazo .945 +491 vs. RHP
Quinton McCracken .825 +71 vs. RHP
Depending on the health of Danny Bautista, he could see some time in this series, or you might see an offense/defense platoon with Mark Little. Yes, having Gonzalez would be nice, but primarily, what the Diamondbacks are losing is some tactical flexibility. Having players that mash pitching from one side of the plate is nice, but it does mean that during the late innings of games, you can end up painted into a corner in terms of your optimal in-game moves.
The Diamondbacks are Backing into the Playoffs
You heard this refrain quite a bit when Curt Schilling bookended a six-game losing streak at the end of the Snakes' final road trip. Of course, the Colorado Rockies then came to the BOB for a remarkable demonstration of self-immolation, failing only in their quest to allow their opponents to double their offensive output for every game of a four game series.
Every year, some juggernaut rolls through the regular season, then has some sort of lull towards the end of year, and desperate columnists fill 1200 words about it. To date, no one has demonstrated that a brief late-season decline has any predictive value when it comes to a short post-season series. D-Back fans, don't lose any sleep over it.
The Cardinals are Peaking at Exactly the Right Time
Well, for one, you can take a peek at the last paragraph. The Cards have finished strong, stomping on the collective tracheae of the already-gasping Astros. They did manage to beat Curt Schilling, and it's nice to know that such a feat is at least possible. But primary reasons why the Cards had such a nice last four weeks (compiling a tidy 21-4 run) are pretty simple:
They're a good team.
They had a pretty easy schedule.
Ups and downs happen.
The losing pitchers during September Cardinal Wins: Jimmy Haynes, Bruce Chen, Alan Benes, Antonio Alfonseca, Kerry Wood, Ben Diggins [twice], Wayne Franklin, Ben Sheets, Tom Gordon, Peter Munro [twice], Kent Mercker, Justin Speier, Jason Jennings, Kirk Saarloos, Rick Helling, Mike Fetters, Curt Schilling, Glendon Rusch, and Luis Vizcaino.
It's not that tough to peak when you face the Brewers seven times over a three week span. Just as the A's 20-game winning streak was chock-full-o-Tigers-'n-Royals, the Cardinals' schedule was a little soft. I'm not suggesting that the Cardinals were lucky or undeserving or something, but Cardinal fans shouldn't take much solace in the Cards' hot finish, other than the implication that everyone seems to be relatively healthy.
The Tragedies Suffered by the Cardinals Have Unified the Team
It was definitely a kick to the chest to lose Darryl Kile so abruptly and unfairly earlier this season. Thankfully, we don't have enough data to seriously examine and make a determination about whether or not this kind of tragedy does have some ancillary effects. The nature of teams is to become more unified over time and through continued success. With a few notable exceptions, teams that get this far tend to have a degree of cohesion and camaraderie. Darryl Kile's absence will be a cause for remembrance and dignified tribute, not improved fast-twitch muscle fibers.
The Diamondback Defense Couldn't Prevent a Bunt Single by the Desiccated Remains of William Holden
Since Gonzalez had that nasty shoulder injury the other night, there's been considerable talk about the defensive hit the Diamondbacks will take with Durazo roaming the outfield. Well, it's possible, but how serious of an issue is this, really? In a five-game series with three of the games started by Schilling or Johnson, no team is less dependent on its defense than the K-tastic D-Backs. Additionally, it's not as if Durazo can't catch the ball if it's hit near him, nor is it illegal to use something called a "Defensive Replacement."
There is a bigger concern than simply having Durazo in the outfield. One advance scout describes the D-Back defense as "very old. Even Steve Finley can't cover that much ground out there anymore. Matt Williams is a shadow of his former self, Tony Womack's a great athlete playing out of position, and there are no plus defenders on the field. Their outfielders get good velocity on the ball, but they take forever to release it, so their opponents can run wild."
The St. Louis defense, on the other hand, is much more highly regarded. "They're one of the best two or three infield defenses in either league," says an advance scout. "The addition of Scott Rolen next to Edgar Renteria makes the left side amazing, and everyone on the field has a head for the game. They'll steal at least one out on instinct during the LDS."
by Gary Huckabay
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
In any given year, at least one or two of the playoff spots wrap up early. Usually, writers from those markets start to madly flail for anything relevant to write about between the time their team clinches a playoff spot, and the time the postseason begins. There's a few stock categories for this type of piece, some of which we've already touched on (excessively), and the rest of which you're painfully familiar with. These topics include, but aren't limited to:
In the postseason, good pitching beats good hitting.
The Diamondbacks/Twins/Whoever are backing into the playoffs.
The A's/Cardinals/Yo' Mama are getting hot right at the right time.
Great defense is what makes the difference in the postseason.
Those late season injuries are going to destroy the D-Backs/Yankees/Pauly Shore
The postseason is where the manager makes the biggest difference.
I could continue, but there's a good chance you've already put your fist/head/sledgehammer through your monitor, and I think you get the idea. The truth is that no one really knows what makes a great postseason team. I've seen a ton of pieces from people who think they know, but there's not a study out there that does a definitive job of identifying particular ballclub traits that make a team more successful in the postseason than in the regular season. If you have one, I'd sure love to see it. At the end of the day, it pretty much comes down to two things:
It's a really good idea to prevent your opponents from scoring more runs than you do, and
These series are really short, and any team that can make the postseason can beat any other team that can make the postseason in a short series.
There are some obvious storylines specific to the Arizona/St. Louis matchup, as derived from the generic list above. Let's lay those out, and address them one by one:
The Diamondbacks would really prefer to have a healthy Luis Gonzalez.
The Diamondbacks are backing into the playoffs.
The Cardinals are peaking at exactly the right time.
The tragedies suffered by the Cardinals have unified the team.
The Diamondback defense couldn't prevent a bunt single by the desiccated remains of William Holden.
It sucks to face Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling in three out of five games.
The Diamondbacks would really prefer to have a healthy Luis Gonzalez
Yes, the D-Backs would prefer to have a healthy Luis Gonzalez. But even without him, they're a pretty reasonable offensive squad. The D-Backs have very good depth, and they can move around some combination of Erubiel Durazo, Greg Colbrunn, and Mark Grace depending on whether they're facing a righty or lefty on any given day.
Gonzalez, before suffering a nasty shoulder injury, posted a very serviceable .288/.400/.496 for the season, with about a hundred-point OPS platoon split. The guys most likely to get his time at the plate:
Player OPS Platoon Split (OPS)
Greg Colbrunn 1.004 +246 vs. LHP
Mark Grace .736 +190 vs. LHP (+14 vs. RHP 1999-2001)
Erubiel Durazo .945 +491 vs. RHP
Quinton McCracken .825 +71 vs. RHP
Depending on the health of Danny Bautista, he could see some time in this series, or you might see an offense/defense platoon with Mark Little. Yes, having Gonzalez would be nice, but primarily, what the Diamondbacks are losing is some tactical flexibility. Having players that mash pitching from one side of the plate is nice, but it does mean that during the late innings of games, you can end up painted into a corner in terms of your optimal in-game moves.
The Diamondbacks are Backing into the Playoffs
You heard this refrain quite a bit when Curt Schilling bookended a six-game losing streak at the end of the Snakes' final road trip. Of course, the Colorado Rockies then came to the BOB for a remarkable demonstration of self-immolation, failing only in their quest to allow their opponents to double their offensive output for every game of a four game series.
Every year, some juggernaut rolls through the regular season, then has some sort of lull towards the end of year, and desperate columnists fill 1200 words about it. To date, no one has demonstrated that a brief late-season decline has any predictive value when it comes to a short post-season series. D-Back fans, don't lose any sleep over it.
The Cardinals are Peaking at Exactly the Right Time
Well, for one, you can take a peek at the last paragraph. The Cards have finished strong, stomping on the collective tracheae of the already-gasping Astros. They did manage to beat Curt Schilling, and it's nice to know that such a feat is at least possible. But primary reasons why the Cards had such a nice last four weeks (compiling a tidy 21-4 run) are pretty simple:
They're a good team.
They had a pretty easy schedule.
Ups and downs happen.
The losing pitchers during September Cardinal Wins: Jimmy Haynes, Bruce Chen, Alan Benes, Antonio Alfonseca, Kerry Wood, Ben Diggins [twice], Wayne Franklin, Ben Sheets, Tom Gordon, Peter Munro [twice], Kent Mercker, Justin Speier, Jason Jennings, Kirk Saarloos, Rick Helling, Mike Fetters, Curt Schilling, Glendon Rusch, and Luis Vizcaino.
It's not that tough to peak when you face the Brewers seven times over a three week span. Just as the A's 20-game winning streak was chock-full-o-Tigers-'n-Royals, the Cardinals' schedule was a little soft. I'm not suggesting that the Cardinals were lucky or undeserving or something, but Cardinal fans shouldn't take much solace in the Cards' hot finish, other than the implication that everyone seems to be relatively healthy.
The Tragedies Suffered by the Cardinals Have Unified the Team
It was definitely a kick to the chest to lose Darryl Kile so abruptly and unfairly earlier this season. Thankfully, we don't have enough data to seriously examine and make a determination about whether or not this kind of tragedy does have some ancillary effects. The nature of teams is to become more unified over time and through continued success. With a few notable exceptions, teams that get this far tend to have a degree of cohesion and camaraderie. Darryl Kile's absence will be a cause for remembrance and dignified tribute, not improved fast-twitch muscle fibers.
The Diamondback Defense Couldn't Prevent a Bunt Single by the Desiccated Remains of William Holden
Since Gonzalez had that nasty shoulder injury the other night, there's been considerable talk about the defensive hit the Diamondbacks will take with Durazo roaming the outfield. Well, it's possible, but how serious of an issue is this, really? In a five-game series with three of the games started by Schilling or Johnson, no team is less dependent on its defense than the K-tastic D-Backs. Additionally, it's not as if Durazo can't catch the ball if it's hit near him, nor is it illegal to use something called a "Defensive Replacement."
There is a bigger concern than simply having Durazo in the outfield. One advance scout describes the D-Back defense as "very old. Even Steve Finley can't cover that much ground out there anymore. Matt Williams is a shadow of his former self, Tony Womack's a great athlete playing out of position, and there are no plus defenders on the field. Their outfielders get good velocity on the ball, but they take forever to release it, so their opponents can run wild."
The St. Louis defense, on the other hand, is much more highly regarded. "They're one of the best two or three infield defenses in either league," says an advance scout. "The addition of Scott Rolen next to Edgar Renteria makes the left side amazing, and everyone on the field has a head for the game. They'll steal at least one out on instinct during the LDS."
