...This game has me scratching my head so bad!!
But...I was still pretty convinced that the Panthers running game is VERY over-rated, so I went through their schedule.
They played only 3 teams all season who had a positive differential in their yards per carry!! ** (ie. Chicago gain 4.3, allow 3.7 = +0.6 dif)
[NYG are +0.8]
@ Miami (+0.6) lost 24-27 and had 84 less rushing yards.
@ TB (+0.5) won 34-14 and had 33 more rushing yards **
@ Chic (+0.6) lost 3-13 and had 67 less rushing yards.
v. TB (+0.5) lost 10-20 and had 32 less rushing yards.
** Now, the interesting thing about this game is that TB were playing catch up all game, and only ran the ball 17 times (to Caro's 31), so TB actually had a better ypc number.
...and I think this is a big reason why the Carolina running game is a bit over-blown.
They rank 19th in the league for yards (104.9), but 30th in ypc (3.4).
The reason being that a) they have played 6 games against teams in the bottom 8 for rush yards allowed. (Atl, NO, Buff, Jets)
b) They've really beat up these teams which hve skewed their stats.
c) Jumped out to big leads in as many as 8 games, and so have been settled to literally run out the second halves in those games.
imo, they've played VERY FEW teams all season who could put scoring pressure on them.
In fact, now I look!, they've played no-one in the top 9 for scoring. NE are 10th, and every other team is 14th or worse, so is it any wonder they have been able to run out games.
The Giants are 3rd in scoring @ 26.4 ppg.
Two other games in their schedule interest me...
...Lost 20-24 home to Dallas...had 143 less rushing yards!
...and...v. Jets at home which they won 30-3, yet still had 36 less rushing yards.
[** For the purpose of this exercise I didn't include Atlanta, who actually have a +0.1 differential, but their defense is horrible and Vick skews the offensive numbers too much to consider imo.]
Right then!!...What does it all mean??...
Basically I think (I've said 3 times now!
) the Carolina running attack isn't anywhere near as good as it is made out to be.
Injuries or not, I think the Giants stuff the run and make Delhomme beat them with the pass.
Can he? Probably! ...but, I think it's pretty doubtful that even if they win, they will get out to a big, comfortable lead at any stage...
...so the bet for me in this game is NYG -24.5 yards rushing.
NYG?...In 9 home games have out-rushed;
+35 v. KC
+46 v. Dallas
+9 v. Philli (But McMahon got 31 of those, Westbrook just 66)
+112 v. Minni
+224 v.Wash
-94 v. Denver, but they hav the top legit running attack in the NFL (158 @ 4.7)
+133 v. St. L.
+30 v. NO
+93 v. 'Zona.
KC, Philli, Washington & Minni all have better rush differentials than Carolina.
Also (on completely the same path) looking pretty closely @ Foster < 78.5 yards rushing.
He's only topped this number twice all season, BOTH v. ATLANTA!
If he doesn't get 20 carries in this one, 80.5 looks a lot.
(2-0 in player props so far with Dillon <88.5 yards and Moss <90.5 receiving)
In all likelyhood that was just a huge load of dribble!...But I'm just filling in time like everyone else here! :mj14:
Good Luck all
edit: I'll add a quick bit on the Foster under...Since Foster has been the starter (since Davis got injured in wk. 11 @ Chicago), Foster has only gained more than 3.6 ypc TWICE. (You guessed it, both in the biggies v. Atl! )
But...I was still pretty convinced that the Panthers running game is VERY over-rated, so I went through their schedule.
They played only 3 teams all season who had a positive differential in their yards per carry!! ** (ie. Chicago gain 4.3, allow 3.7 = +0.6 dif)
[NYG are +0.8]
@ Miami (+0.6) lost 24-27 and had 84 less rushing yards.
@ TB (+0.5) won 34-14 and had 33 more rushing yards **
@ Chic (+0.6) lost 3-13 and had 67 less rushing yards.
v. TB (+0.5) lost 10-20 and had 32 less rushing yards.
** Now, the interesting thing about this game is that TB were playing catch up all game, and only ran the ball 17 times (to Caro's 31), so TB actually had a better ypc number.
...and I think this is a big reason why the Carolina running game is a bit over-blown.
They rank 19th in the league for yards (104.9), but 30th in ypc (3.4).
The reason being that a) they have played 6 games against teams in the bottom 8 for rush yards allowed. (Atl, NO, Buff, Jets)
b) They've really beat up these teams which hve skewed their stats.
c) Jumped out to big leads in as many as 8 games, and so have been settled to literally run out the second halves in those games.
imo, they've played VERY FEW teams all season who could put scoring pressure on them.
In fact, now I look!, they've played no-one in the top 9 for scoring. NE are 10th, and every other team is 14th or worse, so is it any wonder they have been able to run out games.
The Giants are 3rd in scoring @ 26.4 ppg.
Two other games in their schedule interest me...
...Lost 20-24 home to Dallas...had 143 less rushing yards!
...and...v. Jets at home which they won 30-3, yet still had 36 less rushing yards.
[** For the purpose of this exercise I didn't include Atlanta, who actually have a +0.1 differential, but their defense is horrible and Vick skews the offensive numbers too much to consider imo.]
Right then!!...What does it all mean??...
Basically I think (I've said 3 times now!
) the Carolina running attack isn't anywhere near as good as it is made out to be.Injuries or not, I think the Giants stuff the run and make Delhomme beat them with the pass.
Can he? Probably!
...but, I think it's pretty doubtful that even if they win, they will get out to a big, comfortable lead at any stage......so the bet for me in this game is NYG -24.5 yards rushing.
NYG?...In 9 home games have out-rushed;
+35 v. KC
+46 v. Dallas
+9 v. Philli (But McMahon got 31 of those, Westbrook just 66)
+112 v. Minni
+224 v.Wash
-94 v. Denver, but they hav the top legit running attack in the NFL (158 @ 4.7)
+133 v. St. L.
+30 v. NO
+93 v. 'Zona.
KC, Philli, Washington & Minni all have better rush differentials than Carolina.
Also (on completely the same path) looking pretty closely @ Foster < 78.5 yards rushing.
He's only topped this number twice all season, BOTH v. ATLANTA!
If he doesn't get 20 carries in this one, 80.5 looks a lot.
(2-0 in player props so far with Dillon <88.5 yards and Moss <90.5 receiving)
In all likelyhood that was just a huge load of dribble!...But I'm just filling in time like everyone else here! :mj14:
Good Luck all
edit: I'll add a quick bit on the Foster under...Since Foster has been the starter (since Davis got injured in wk. 11 @ Chicago), Foster has only gained more than 3.6 ypc TWICE. (You guessed it, both in the biggies v. Atl!
)
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