Hmm...where to start. There's a lot of things to digest in this matchup, so I guess I'll start with the line. Most places have it set as UNC -1, although I've seen it at pick and even texas -1 at a few books. I think this line is incorrect and represents the amount of square money that that is expected on UNC. IMO, on a neutral court, I think the line should be more like Texas -2. I think this puts the value on texas, but I will play carolina for the following reasons.
The tar heels produced their best defensive spurt of the year in the 2nd half against Air Force, holding them w/out a fg for over 8 minutes. Don't be fooled by the boxscore. AF played the princeton offense to perfection in the 1st half. We outrebounded them, but the shots weren't falling. I was very impressed with the adjustments made at halftime by the coaching staff, and even more impressed the players were able to implement them (funny sun tzu, I always read about you bitching about roy, but never see a thread giving him credit when credit is due
) In any case, I think this team is gelling at the perfect time. Scott showed maturity in accepting his role off of the bench, and him hitting his 1st shot once he came in was a result of the new focus.
Texas played a very similar game in the 1st round, with a similar result. There was 1 big difference I noted. Where carolina won their game with a team effort against AF, texas relied heavily on Mouton to carry the team. This is no surprise; as mouton goes, so do the longhorns. When he doesn't (a la Okl St), then the whole team doesn't. Carolina has done a good job against teams this year with a potent offensive player. Texas is big and rebounds very well, so UNC won't be able to dominate the boards. This is an advantage for tx because this heels team relies on high possession counts to score.
Intangible: Roy Williams. He knows Texas, as good as anyone in the country. He owns Rick Barnes (6-1). I think he gives us the edge to win this game.
As an unbiased handicapper, I have to say the value is with Texas +1. As someone who has watched UNC for a while, my gut screams that we will win. So fwiw, even though the value is on texas, i feel very strongly that we will win the game tomorrow. I will be placing a large amount on us.
As always, I would appreciate feedback, on both teams.
Can Mack Brown come out and give the pre-game speeches?
The tar heels produced their best defensive spurt of the year in the 2nd half against Air Force, holding them w/out a fg for over 8 minutes. Don't be fooled by the boxscore. AF played the princeton offense to perfection in the 1st half. We outrebounded them, but the shots weren't falling. I was very impressed with the adjustments made at halftime by the coaching staff, and even more impressed the players were able to implement them (funny sun tzu, I always read about you bitching about roy, but never see a thread giving him credit when credit is due
) In any case, I think this team is gelling at the perfect time. Scott showed maturity in accepting his role off of the bench, and him hitting his 1st shot once he came in was a result of the new focus. Texas played a very similar game in the 1st round, with a similar result. There was 1 big difference I noted. Where carolina won their game with a team effort against AF, texas relied heavily on Mouton to carry the team. This is no surprise; as mouton goes, so do the longhorns. When he doesn't (a la Okl St), then the whole team doesn't. Carolina has done a good job against teams this year with a potent offensive player. Texas is big and rebounds very well, so UNC won't be able to dominate the boards. This is an advantage for tx because this heels team relies on high possession counts to score.
Intangible: Roy Williams. He knows Texas, as good as anyone in the country. He owns Rick Barnes (6-1). I think he gives us the edge to win this game.
As an unbiased handicapper, I have to say the value is with Texas +1. As someone who has watched UNC for a while, my gut screams that we will win. So fwiw, even though the value is on texas, i feel very strongly that we will win the game tomorrow. I will be placing a large amount on us.
As always, I would appreciate feedback, on both teams.
Can Mack Brown come out and give the pre-game speeches?
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