Caught Looking

Lumi

LOKI
Forum Member
Aug 30, 2002
21,104
58
0
58
In the shadows
Caught Looking

Just because it?s the first week of the season doesn?t mean there are teams that won?t be looking ahead to what awaits them. While that won?t make some fans too happy, it makes gamblers damn near giddy at the prospect of starting their year off right.

So which openers give us a chance to lay down with the underdogs? Let?s take a look at a trio of games that fall under this category.

Buckeye Bump?

Ohio State is considered once again to be among the class of the Big Ten. It?s hard not to believe the same when looking at the rest of the league. But the Buckeyes could have their hands full this season as they face Navy as 22 ?-point home favorites and a total of 47 this Saturday at noon EDT.

I know that a lot of people will say that there isn?t a reason to be afraid of the Midshipmen since they?re returning only four starters from last season. Navy seems to just reload its triple-option offense on a regular basis. In 2008, they had just five starters back from the following year on offense. All the Middies did last year was lead the nation with 292.4 rushing yards per game.


Navy?s preferred method of attack will no doubt disrupt the Buckeyes? defense. The Bucks? have a talented defensive unit, but they are starting some new faces in the linebacker role. It also doesn?t help that OSU hasn?t faced a triple-option attack in quite some time.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Buckeyes will have an eye towards next week?s showdown with Southern California. Ohio State was humiliated 35-3 as a 10 ?-point road pups out west last year.

The stats would suggest that OSU is a safe play here as they?re 5-0 straight up and against the spread in its last five home openers. However, this team went 1-5 ATS at Ohio Stadium last year.

Speed Bump for the Bruins?

Rick Neuheisel?s 4-8 first year at UCLA wasn?t exactly what everyone in Westwood was hoping for, but it is a start nonetheless. The betting shops are expecting a nice start for the Bruins in 2009 by making them 19-point home favorites against San Diego State with a total of 51 ?.

It isn?t hard to understand the sportsbook?s line of thinking here. This is a Pac-10 school under a coach that has done well in the past against a team that hasn?t won six games since 2003. Also, The Bruins have won and covered the number in the last eight head-to-head matchups.

What people shouldn?t forget about is that UCLA has to make a trip to Knoxville next week to face Layne Kiffin?s Volunteers. Not an easy task to take on.

Something else to wrap your head around is the fact that Neuheisel stinks as a favorite. Over his stays at Colorado, Washington and UCLA, Neuheisel is 55-12 SU. However, he is just 19-46 ATS in those same matchups.

No Luck for the Irish?

Things have been pretty lackluster for the Golden Domers over the last two years under Charlie Weis. Look at how Notre Dame celebrated winning the Hawaii Bowl last December as proof of how the bar is starting to get lower. But there is reason to be optimistic in South Bend this fall as the Irish return nine starters on their offense.

The sportsbooks are anticipating a good start for the Fighting Irish as well in making them 14-point home faves against Nevada with a total of 61. And you might be able to get that line at 15 in some betting shops now.

What is surprising is how everyone is hitting up the Irish for this game. The Wolf Pack aren?t exactly a bunch drunken fools on the field. This club is one of the trendy picks to challenge Boise State in the WAC this year. Nevada?s quarterback, Colin Kaepernick, is the reining conference offensive player of the year with 2,849 passing yards, 22 touchdowns and just seven picks.

Notre Dame also has its annual showdown with the Wolverines the following Saturday. I?ll grant you that this showdown doesn?t have the same sheen as it once did, but it?s still a major rivalry for both programs.

If you?re looking for hard numbers to consider when wanting to fade the Domers, then consider this: The Fighting Irish are just 5-3 SU and 2-6 ATS in their last eight season openers.
 
Last edited:

Lumi

LOKI
Forum Member
Aug 30, 2002
21,104
58
0
58
In the shadows
Don't get weak during Week 1

Don't get weak during Week 1

Don't get weak during Week 1

The end of hibernation for college football fans is near.

It has been 238 long days since last season?s BCS title game. Thursday marks the start of the 2009 season.

For months, bettors have been preparing for Week 1 games, building up their bankrolls, reading as much literature they can get their hands on and scouring the Internet to track injuries and suspensions of key players.

And now that the magical day has nearly arrived, what should a bettor do?

Not a damn thing.

That?s right ? do not place a bet on opening week. Instead, wait, watch and listen.

Let?s count the reasons:

Lack of competitive games

There are 74 games in Week 1, with 38 of the games (51.4 percent) involving Division I-A teams playing I-AA opponents. It?s likely the highest number and percentage of such games in a week?s schedule since the NCAA adopted the divisional setup in 1978. It?s laughable, really. Spring scrimmages are more competitive.

Big numbers

Crummy matchups mean double-digit pointspreads. Of the 40 games listed on Covers.com , 25 had spreads of 10 or more points. Do you really feel good about Texas being a 40-point favorite over Louisiana Monroe? Besides, where?s the sport in that? That?s like fishing at a trout farm.

The hype factor

Every team is feeling good about its chances at the moment. Even fans of Western Kentucky, which is playing its first season in Div I-A, are giddy with optimism. Reality is about to hit them like a tsunami. Western Kentucky is a 31.5-point underdog at Tennessee.

Clarity of mind

It?s important to study and watch teams closely in the first week without rooting for or against a team. Check out strengths and weakness, style of play. Do they have a quarterback who can make plays? What about that idiot coach? Doesn?t he know how many timeouts are allowed in a half? Seriously, this tiny investment will pay big dividends later in the season.

--

I won?t take it personally if you go against my advice. Despite what the surgeon general says, some people still smoke. Proceed at your own risk.

If you must dip your toe into the betting waters this early, here are some points to consider when picking a side:

Take a team with an experienced offensive line

Last season, eight of the Top 10 teams in the final Associated Press poll began the season with at least 65 combined career starts by their offensive linemen. Utah and Mississippi, two of the biggest surprises of 2008, had more than 80 starts of experience. Georgia, Missouri and Clemson, three Top-10 teams that disappointed, had fewer than 40 starts each, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Here are five teams to watch and their offensive line starts: Notre Dame (100), Virginia Tech (100), Texas (91), Florida State (86) and Michigan (75). Here are five teams to worry about: Oregon (20), West Virginia (25), Oklahoma (29), Penn State (39) and Alabama (50).

Oregon State is not a good team in September

Since Mike Riley returned as coach in 2003, the Beavers have gone 10-13 in the month. Overall, he?s 48-28. That?s right, nearly half of his losses have come in September. Go figure.

--

I watch a lot of football. Too much.

You know that computer-generated yellow first down line you see on your screen?

After last season, I saw it everywhere. It was along the foreheads of my friends and family. I saw it in the eyes of my dog.

Given those qualifications, here are some general observations as teams prepare to charge out of the tunnel.

If a quarterback is not of legal drinking age, it?s generally not a good idea to let him start a road game

OK, we have no data to back this up, but after attending a USC practice last week, it was clear Aaron Corp had a better grasp of the offense than Matt Barkley. Two days later, Pete Carroll named Barkley the starter. San Jose State won?t present much of a challenge for the kid, but that monster Week 2 game at Ohio State will be problematic.

If UCLA?s offensive line can learn how to block, the Bruins will win six games

Slick Rick Neuheisel has some young talent, but don?t expect much in his second season as coach.

Rich Rodriguez needs to win this season

It?s clear that even though Michigan has yet to play a game, he has already lost the respect of several players. The Wolverines have eight home games, but if the players quit on Rich Rod, it won?t matter. He?ll be good as gone if Michigan loses at home to Western Michigan Saturday.

That nasty swine flu we wrote about last week is continuing to have an impact

Several Alabama players are slowed by flu-like symptoms and the Crimson Tide needs to be in tip-top shape for Saturday?s opener against Virginia Tech. Losing defensive end Brandon Deaderick, who was shot Monday night in Tuscaloosa, won?t help.

So, keep your impulsivity in check. Use the one-week rule. Take the new season to dinner and a movie first before blowing your bankroll.
 

Lumi

LOKI
Forum Member
Aug 30, 2002
21,104
58
0
58
In the shadows
Top 5 Trend CFB

Top 5 Trend CFB

Top 5 Trends
UTAST
UTAH Over is 8-0 in UTAH last 8 non-conference games.
SOCAR
NCST NCST are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
SOCAR
NCST NCST are 7-0-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
NMEX
TXAM Over is 7-0 in NMEX last 7 games in September.
IDAHO
NMXST Over is 7-0 in IDAHO last 7 road games.
 
Bet on MyBookie
Top