Chalk Players beware

[WildBillPicks7]

MLB

Saturday, June 28


What trend was hot on the diamond Friday night?

Underdogs against the runline were impressive once again in Major League Baseball action Friday night.

Dogs put up a 12-4 record last night, hitting at a remarkable 75 percent.

Road dogs were even more impressive going 8-2, while home dogs went 4-2.

Underdogs are still hitting over 60 percent of the time for the season.
Dodgers' SS Hanley Ramirez, questionable Saturday

Ramirez is dealing with shoulder irritation and has missed the last four games. He underwent an MRI that revealed no serious damage and he is questionable to play in Saturday's game against the Cardinals.


Blue Jays' RF Jose Bautista, questionable Saturday

Bautista has a Grade 1 hamstring strain and has missed the last five games. He questionable to play Saturday against the White Sox.


Mets' 3B David Wright, out Saturday

Wright didn't play Friday due to a shoulder injury. He will fly back to New York for an MRI and is expected to sit out the weekend against the Pirates.


Red Sox pitcher keeping Yankees at bay

The Boston Red Sox will be sending Jon Lester to the mound against the New York Yankees Saturday and under bettors should rejoice. In Lester's last five starts in New York has seen the under pay-out four times.

Lester has applied a bend, but don't break mentality giving up an average of seven hits per game at Yankee Stadium while only allowing two runs per game.


Indians pitcher terrible against good teams

The Cleveland Indians will send Josh Tomlin to the mound against the Seattle Mariners Saturday. Totals bettors take note, as in Tomlin's last five starts against a team with a winning record has seen the total get topped.

Tomlin has given up an average of six hits per game and three runs in these games, but has been chased before the sixth inning four times. The Cleveland Indians bullpen then gets abused with the games averaging 12.4 runs.


Padres pitcher could find gem against Diamondbacks

San Diego Padres' Eric Stults does not have much to be happy about this season with his 5.49 ERA and 2-10 record. However, he will be looking for a solid outing against the Arizona Diamondbacks who he has helped stay under the total in seven of his last eight starts against.

Stults allows a mere five hits and slightly over two runs per game on average against the D-Backs. Stults and the opposing pitcher has kept teams to an average of six runs per game.


Angels sending winless pitcher to the mound

Hector Santiago has not shown a lot to be confident in his starts this season. In Sintiago's nine starts this season for the Los Angeles Angels, the team has gone 1-8. In Santiago's last four starts he has given up 15 runs, an average of 3.75 runs per game.

Santiago will take to the mound versus the Kansas City Royals Saturday.


Indians RHP Masterson scratched from start

Cleveland Indians right-hander Justin Masterson will miss his scheduled start Sunday at the Seattle Mariners due to right knee soreness, according to the Cleveland Plain Dealer.

Masterson, who has struggled this season after a breakout year in 2013, said he has been dealing with knee pain since his second start of the year.

Masterson has a 5.03 ERA and has issued 50 walks in 93 innings.

The Indians will need to recall a pitcher from Triple-A Columbus to start in place of Masterson on Sunday. Left-hander T.J. House is a candidate to fill that role.

 

[hammer1]

Thank You !

 

[udown]

Thanks for the info

 

[yanno]

Good stuff, Wild Bill!!

This kind of info is a real contribution to all of us. :0008

 

[IE]

Underdogs are still hitting over 60 percent of the time for the season.

what is the avg lay price of these +1.5 dogs
-150?, -140?.....

do you know the break even % they have hit so far.

today for example the avg lay price is -166.

thanks in advance.

 

[devil dave]

attention Raymond

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Underdogs are still hitting over 60 percent of the time for the season.

what is the avg lay price of these +1.5 dogs
-150?, -140?.....

do you know the break even % they have hit so far.

today for example the avg lay price is -166.

thanks in advance.

The 60% underdog formula is on run line only, dogs outright are hitting at 53% now they were 48% until June 1, 2014. Ave Money line play +160 or higher, dogs +200 or better are 3-2 this year, Price the big fav in two of those underdog wins the other was Max Scherzer, -200 fav covering Kershaw and Tanaka, Ave Run line for the underdogs at +1 1/2 has been -140 on the average.

Hope this helps.

Last year favs of -250 or higher were 0-3.

 

[IE]

ok, yes i knew about moneyline dogs.

was just wondering about a so-called underdog formula when they are favs almost all the time.

thanks, though.

good luck tonight.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Closing underdog money lines go 8-9 for positive day, largest dogs covering, BoSox & Mets, almost with the Marlins.

Sunday trends

MLB

National League

Braves-Phillies
Harang is 2-3, 4.79 in his last six starts.
Buchanan is 3-0, 3.06 in his last three starts.

Braves won six of their last seven games.
Phillies lost seven of their last nine games.

Seven of last eight Atlanta games stayed under the total.

Mets-Pirates
Colon is 5-0, 1.87 in his last six starts.
Volquez is 1-2, 7.05 in his last three starts.

Mets lost three of their last four games.
Pirates won six of their last eight games.

Four of last five Colon starts went over the total.

Rockies-Brewers
de la Rosa is 1-3, 8.06 in five starts this month.
Gallardo is 2-0, 1.00 in his last four starts/

Colorado lost eleven of its last twelve games.
Brewers won ten of their last thirteen games.

Over is 6-2-1 in last nine de la Rosa starts.

Cardinals-Dodgers
Miller is 0-1, 4.50 in his last three starts.
Kershaw is 5-0, 0.97 in his last five starts.

Cardinals are 3-4 in their last seven road games.
Dodgers won 11 of their last 15 games.

Under is 15-5-2 in last twenty-two St Louis games.

Reds-Giants
Bailey is 0-1, 5.71 in his last three starts.
Hudson is 0-2, 11.32 in his last couple starts.

Cincinnati won 12 of its last 15 road games.
Giants lost 11 of their last 13 home games.

Last five Hudson starts went over the total.

Arizona-San Diego
Arizona lost last four Bolsinger starts (0-3, 4.50).
Despaigne threw seven shutout innings in his first MLB start.

Diamondbacks won three of their last four games.
Padres lost their last four home games.

Ten of last twelve games at Petco Park stayed under.

American League

White Sox-Blue Jays
Quintana is 1-0, 1.93 in his last two starts.
Former White Sox P Buehrle is 0-3, 4.15 in his last four starts.

White Sox lost ten of their last thirteen road games.
Blue Jays lost eight of their last twelve games.

Five of last seven Quintana starts stayed under the total.

Angels-Royals
Wilson is 2-3, 5.05 in his last six starts.
Guthrie is 3-0, 2.25 in his last three starts.

Angels won seven of their last eight games.
Kansas City lost seven of its last nine games.

Six of last eight Guthrie starts stayed under total.

Twins-Rangers
Gibson is 2-1, 2.74 in his last four starts.
Lewis is 1-2, 7.57 in his last five starts.

Minnesota lost its last ten road games.
Rangers lost eight of their last ten games, but won last two.

Under is 7-1-1 in Minnesota's last nine road games.

Rays-Orioles
Cobb is 1-5, 6.42 in his last six starts.
Gonzalez is 1-2, 4.86 in his last three starts.

Tampa Bay lost 12 of its last 16 road games.
Orioles won seven of their last eleven games.

Under is 6-3-1 in Cobb starts this season.

Tigers-Astros
Smyly is 2-2, 2.16 in his last four starts.
Feldman is 0-3, 7.40 in his last five starts.

Detroit won seven of its last nine games.
Houston lost nine of its last twelve games.

Six of last eight Feldman starts went over total.

Boston-Bronx
Lackey is 1-2, 4.08 in his last five starts.
Bronx is 6-2 in Whitley starts (1-0, 2.25 in two home starts).

Red Sox lost 13 of their last 17 road games.
Bronx lost five of its last seven games.

Over is 4-1-1 in last six Whitley starts.

Indians-Mariners
House has a 6.21 RA in last three starts, all Cleveland wins.
Hernandez is 5-1, 1.47 in his last eight starts.

Cleveland lost six of its last nine games.
Seattle won six of its last eight games.

Over is 5-2-1 in Hernandez' home starts.

Interleague game

A's-Marlins
Oakland won six of last seven Milone starts (4-0, 3.67).
Heaney is 0-2, 4.91 in two starts this season.

A's won ten of their last thirteen games.
Miami lost six of its last seven home games.

Last five Oakland games went over the total.


Pitchers allowing runs in first inning:
-- Harang 4-16; Buchanon 0-7
-- Colon 5-16; Volquez 5-14
-- de la Rosa 5-16; Gallardo 4-16
-- Bailey 4-16; Hudson 1-15
-- Miller 2-16; Kershaw 2-11
-- Bolsinger 2-6; Despaigne 0-1

-- Quintana 2-16; Buehrle 4-16
-- Cobb 3-10; Gonzalez 3-12
-- Smyly 5-12; Feldman 3-13
-- Wilson 4-16; Guthrie 4-16
-- House 2-5; Hernandez 2-17
-- Gibson 4-15; Lewis 5-13
-- Lackey 4-16; Whitley 2-8


-- Milone 6-14; Heaney 2-2

Umpires
-- Atl-Phil-- Nine of last 13 TBarrett games went over total.
-- NY-Pitt-- Nine of last twelve Barry games stayed under total.
-- Col-Mil-- Six of last eight Bucknor games stayed under.
-- StL-LA-- Since 2009, under is 70-54 in Fairchild games.
-- Cin-SF-- Five of last seven Reyburn games went over total.
-- Az-SD-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Wolcott games.

-- Chi-Tor-- Underdogs are 8-7 in last fifteen Knight games.
-- LA-KC-- 10 of last 14 Tichenor games went over the total.
-- Min-Tex-- Nine of thirteen Nauert games went over total.
-- TB-Blt-- Over is 4-1-1 in last six Morales games.
-- Det-Hst-- Six of last nine Ripperger games went over total.
-- Bos-NY-- Underdogs won 12 of last 14 Wegner games.
-- Cle-Sea-- Six of last seven O'Nora games stayed under.

-- A's-Mia-- Under is 11-1-1 in last thirteen Porter games.

 

[WildBillPicks7]

Against The Spread Trends (ATS)

Category Record Percent
Away Teams 707-528 57.25%
Home Teams 528-707 42.75%
Favorites 482-753 39.03%
Dogs 753-482 60.97%
Away Favorites163-209 43.82%
Away Dogs 544-319 63.04%
Home Favorites319-544 36.96%
Home Dogs 209-163 56.18%