Championship Week Card (Nov 29th - Dec 1st)

Irish

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Very Big Play
VT(-5) over BC
revenge, revenge and more revenge. VT will finish the drink in this game and look to leave no doubt that BC is not in their league. VT has been playing lights out football lately and it is due to losing to BC and that loss has motivated VT on offense and defense. The holies rotate qbs which is very good considering that will make it extremely tough for BC to gameplan on defense. A defense that needs all the help it can get considering they are banged up and allowed fsu and maryland 27 and 42 points. VT has averaged about 37 points over the last few games....the lowest total is 27, which over those 4 games BC played was the second highest total for the eagles. Looking back on the VT/BC you see VTs front 4 dominated the o-line of BC. You also see Ore played as well as he played last year and that showed VTs o-line was getting the job done. We also see that Glennon and Taylor were both hurting and some what in a battle for starter. The VT defense was in solid deep coverage while lbs played the middle well and held Ryan in check. BC did show the ability to hit the running back out of the back field something VT has to shut down. The VT offense moved the ball but could not score something they have changed over the past 4 games. Beamer has opened up the offense to take advantage of Glennons accuracy and Taylors ability to improvise. This new found offense has allowed the defense to be more aggressive which I thought almost impossible. VT has the edge in special teams becuase royal can make a big play on every return and the front can potentially block all kicks. The poorest thing VT does is field onside kicks and I am not sure they will screw that up. VT wants this game and they want Ryan... the chest bump with the coach of BC is something players are still talking about. every aspect of this game says BC is heading into the buzz saw and over the last few games VT has sharpened the blades. The location is jax which favores VT...it is a grass field and bc plays on turf and in cooler weather while VT should be used to the surface and temp. Plus VT fans travel well and it is close for the hokie nation to make it to florida than chesnut hill folks. I expect VT to be extremely aggressive in the passing game because Ore showed he could run on BC and they will committ to shutting that down. All season long I have said Glennon sucks when the pressure is on him and putting Taylor in relieves that and lets him just play the game, which he can do. The trench battle should be won on both side by VT. Ryan is the bright spot for BC but the hokies will look to get to him and fast. #49 should get pressure on Ryan almost every play. VT on offense has started to also take advantage of the speed, size and talent of the wrs and te positions. even if BC has the defense to stop them all 2aylor will run it. This should be a good game but the hookies are dying for this rematch and every thing I hear about BC is they were so happy to get out of VT with a win....one team looking forard and the other looking back. VT will be hungry and ready come saturday.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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Thanks Corley GL to us.

Okie (-3) over Mizzou
One can Mizzou play better than they did against Kansas? They were pratically perfect in a huge emotional game with a ton on the line with many people watching. To me that would have been the game that would have been too much to come back from and then you see the sooners off a beating they issued the cowboys. Watching the Kansas game you saw a jayhawk team that folded under the pressure in the first half and then use the passing game for huge plays in the second. The bad thing for Kansas was no one on the defense was able to sniff Daniels and he picked them apart. The coverage was soft, they did not blitz and they could not tackle. All things the sooners will avoid in this re-match. The sooner defense is not the best in the NCAA but they are good enough to generate pressure and blitz. I am sure the secondary will play bump coverage to jam recievers off the timeing needed for the mizzou offense to complete passes. Also I do not think the spin move EVERY tiger player used after the ctach will be as effective against the sooner defense. Okies 3 loses came to Colorado and Tex Tech. Both games were on the road which is good for tiger backers in this game because even though this should have a smash in crowd supporters it still is not a home game for the sooners. The colorado game... the buffs were getting hammered and then played a near flawless second session and came back to win after the sooners went into cruise control and against TT the sooners lost their QB and if we watched this team last year they need Bradford inorder to move the ball. In the last meeting of these teams Bradford was able tio pick apart the mizzou secondary but they were not able to move the ball on the ground to the overwhelming numbers okie would like. The sooner offense used the okie st game to get Bradford back to full speed and the running attack back on track. The defense shut down a pretty good Okie st offense and should be up for the Mizzou test. Remember of Danielss 9 picks two came in the okie game. Plus he was hit a buck of times which might play against him condisering he had all day against Kansas. This sooner defense sacked Daniels 4 times as well and I think stoops will cook up even more pressure to make sure the QB does not get too comfortable. Mizzou is the #1 team in the nation but this will be a huge test for them. This will not be a shoot out and that is what Mizzou is built for and not a tough hard hitting contest which Okie will bring to the table. I think Mizzou is a very good team but it takes a ton out of these players going in front of 70K people playing near perfect to hold off a charging Kansas team and being thrown into the #1 spot overall. This is a team not used to this type of pressure and I expect some let down. A little less productivity because of the okie defensive pressure and the sooners playing well enough to win a hard fought battle like the last game they play against each other.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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Hawaii (-14) over wash
Brink the qb for wash st threw for 399 and 5 tds, wash st is not in hawaiis league of open play calling. in hawaiis last game it was the defense that impressed me against the running game of boise. the warrior offense is always capable of big numbers but it comes down to the defense holding to beat good teams. That being said remember the last wac team washington face was boise to and the huskies waxed them. Hawaii is a team that plays to the competition, if the play boise they show up but that same team will need ot to beat la tech. This brings me to the reason for the play.....hawaii has been at home for the last many bowl games playing in the hula bowl This is nice and all but finishing second in the Wac does not open too many doors. The warriors know this is there shot, a chace to go to a bcs bowl, be undefeated and make a outside cry at national champion..about as loud as boise cried last year. but I am getting ahead of myself, this last home game for seniors like bess, brennen, grace mullen, satele, elimenian has huge implications. The warriors will be ready for this game, the stands should be full and the spread offense will be trouble for wash defense that was eaten up through the air in its last game. The defensive key for hawaii is spy locker...thats it spy him and blitz him. Jones will have his team ready for the biggest game in hawaiis football history to date.

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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Small Play
Louisville (-2.5) over Rutgers
I like the fact the Cards are at home where they play better, Still nothing special. I like that Rutgers is disappointed after claiming rights to the International bowl, a little emotion let down (why play this game). I like the Cards have revenge on their minds after they were upset last year by the nights. I like the Cards are 7-1 ATS in November. I like this is the Cards LAST game, no WIN means NO BOWL... even though the path is set for a low key bowl if they win, I would think these players would want that for the seniors.

Again, I like all those factors but I am not in love with a Card teams that has ZERO emotion from its QB. The kid might be NFL ready but his players would respond if he got a little fired up once in a while.

ALSO
GB (+) over Dall
Dal is 6-2 ATS spread vs GB lately but I think 7 is just too much for a 10-1 team with Farve under center.

Cheers
Irish
 

trolln4walii

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My record's been slipping on the college scene of late. Feel a whole lot better with this week's plays after seeing your card Irish! With you on the Hokies, Hawaii, and Louisville. (and the Pack) Let's have a good one my friend!! :mj06:
 

Irish

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Small Play
New Mex St (+13) over Fresno
The buldogs are soft against the pass and they are at NMS where the aggies play pretty well. The aggies have a good QB and a nice spread offense for this game, still they are not that good so I play this small.

Hit
Boston Celts (-3) over Miami
 

Shifty Mac

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irish, looked at ur plays alot this season, not trying to criticize but it seems like this year you have been betting alot more favs which has been leading to losses, especially road favs...really respect ur plays and capping ability, just think that has been the diff this year compared to last....let me know what think
 

Irish

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Shifty
No disrespect taken, we are all here with the same goal... to beat the book. I think this season has been unlike any I have ever seen with dogs beating high ranking teams. I think the college football play has started to level out and more teams have a chance to win or compete. Still, there are a lot of factors why I play certain plays, sometimes that means the chalk teams get more action. I try not to take the fav/dog untill I have a solid basis for the play. I agree that has lead to some L's this season but thats just part of this crazy season. For example last night I took the road fav in hoops (Boston), The home dog in football (NMS) and the home fav in hockey (Pitt)... just a matter of what I see and how it plays out...last night NMS never gave up, Boston held on and the pens just played well. Just the way it bounces sometime. Still I wouldn't say it has been a bad season, I have started playing more plays which has watered down some of my plays but as always you win some and you lose some, but you hope you rake pots more than not. Thanks for the insight and gl on your plays.

Still you are right I have been riding chalk lately and this only adds to your post:

ASU (-7) over Zona
I think the ball bouncing for Zona will stop on the road today against their rival. This time they face a true number one qb and a team that needs a win. Oregon and Ucla both got beat in Zona with in effective QBs under center. ASU has to rebound from some bad play and the defenseive secondary of Zona does not have the speed to stay with ASU WR's they just need solid play from Carpenter. Zona is 3-6 ATS against ASU and the under has been tghe play over the last few meetings. Saying that, this becomes a very important game considering it makes a huge difference on where the devils play in a bowl. The wildcats are also in a bowl hunt and I expect them to show up but you would have to think the hime field should motivate the devils. Erikson should get the most out of his seniors and this game should come down to Zona not getting all the breaks they have over their win streak.

LSU (-7.5) over Tenn
I like the different dimension Perilloux bring at QB. The defense should want to send Pellini out with a big win and big performance. The team has been dealing with Miles and his journey to Mich. So the entire team is losing the coaching staff, but I see these coaches as planners and guys that even though they are leaving they are committed to LSU untill they are actually gone. Tenn should have lost to Woodson throiwing all day against them last week. If Flynn gets to play or who ever is under center the tigers should be able to move the ball down field with the pass. The defense should blitz, get Tenn out of rythem and they will be productive, if they let Ainge sit back there he will pick them apart but if they pressure him they will generate turnovers. Should be a good game but this senior driven team should come to gether for nothing else then they have to win because the coaches are leaving and they have to do this themselves.

UCF (-6.5) over Tulsa
The golden hurricans have been a good team this season but they have not really impressed me and the golden knights have looked really sharp to finish up the season. Even the book has noticed the difference with Tulsa becoming a smaller point layer than in years past and the knights have becoime chalk heavy in their last games. Remember coach transcript was very good in GT, and at Minny (NFL) given his second shot as head coach in ncaa, you have to think he will do his part to game plan. This is Tulsa's first championship game under its new coach but they have Paul Smith and that kid is a gamer. Still I think UCF is the more talented team and playing better football. The favorite has covered the last two in the championship.

Small
C.Mich (-3) over Miami (OH)
The chips are flat out the better team. This is a small play because the MAC is never kind to me but watching Miami need a defensive TD to break a scoreless tie to get to this game makes me think they do not have the offense to stay with CMU if the chips execute. Thats the key because the Chips are hot and cold but they seem to play their best in big games. West division is 7-3 SU in the last games.

WVU (-28.5) over Pitt
Seems like this screams pitt money and the neers are CHOKE artist in big games and this is a win and we are in the n ational championship game. That should lead to WVU playing scared and Pitt has ZERO to lose and they will bring everything to this game. WVU will choke and Pitt more than likely will cover but WVU is the better team, they have the edge at every position, WVU is 5-1 ATS vs Pitt. WVU has the home field advantage and they showed the offense they needed to last week. Still this is IMO too mush chalk but WVU is a team that scores and scores often while I think Pitt is one dimensional on offense and can be shut down.

RE-HIT:SIB
VT (-4.5)
Okie (-3)

I am chalk hungry and might have another play later in the day.
I was looking at OSU (+1) over the ducks, they have zero options at QB and the beavers will want this game.


Cheers
Irish
 

Cie

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The defense should blitz, get Tenn out of rythem and they will be productive, if they let Ainge sit back there he will pick them apart but if they pressure him they will generate turnovers.

That's what I'm screamin':00hour

GL on your plays, Irish:weed:
 

Irish

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Oregon St (+1.5) over Ducks
Offense is struggling withoug Dixon, Stewert is hurting with a toe. OSU has a decent defense, the beavers are banged up too but I like the beaver defense. Considering the Bruins held the ducks in check I think the beavers do the same.

Question....
I was listeniong to Herbstreet talk about Zona/ASU and he think the cats win outright... Didn't the cats ride a win streak last year with wins against Wash St, Cal and Oregon and then the world was talking about how they were a good team and then ASU beat them by 10 in Zona's house?

Cheers
Irish
 

Irish

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VT:00hour :00hour :00hour !!!!!!!!!

Rehit
ASU (-7) over Zona

Cheers
Irish
 
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