Duke -3.5 2H....single play...Gotta think Duke will make a spirited charge in the second half. Banking on that to cut into what looks like a loss for the game.
Championship Week One Thread
- Thread starter Toledo Prophet
- Start date
Wow, the makings of a real ugly night. So, we're going to compound the problem with one more play.
Oregon -1.5 2H over AZ, single unit. I split two previous attempts when I was banking on teams I had played for the game to come back from a first half deficit. Not as severe in this case, but putting a little extra on the Ducks thinking the home crowd gives them enough of an extra gear to eventually catch and pass the Wildcats.
Oregon -1.5 2H over AZ, single unit. I split two previous attempts when I was banking on teams I had played for the game to come back from a first half deficit. Not as severe in this case, but putting a little extra on the Ducks thinking the home crowd gives them enough of an extra gear to eventually catch and pass the Wildcats.
March Madness Thread YTD: 14-18-1
Yesterday was a lousy 10-13 day. After winning during the day, I took the gas pipe at night, losing double plays on Duke and Niagara. Those games hurt. UNC scores the final 10 points of the game and Marist basically did the same against Niagara until a worthless late bucket. Hard to believe that happened twice and it was a swing of 10 units! If only one of those happens, I still have a winning night. Those are the breaks, and I will patiently and without complaining wait for the Karma to come back my way! Here is what I have so far today:
Three Double Plays:
UK ML -140 over Florida. I am staying on the Kentucky train. Why not? The Cats are 11-4 SU and ATS in SEC play this year. Meanwhile the young Gators are are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine league games. They are 3-5 SU on the road, which is respectable, but they are 0-5 SU on the road vs winning teams. The Cats have won SU all seven of their SEC homes games. In the process they beat Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tenn and Vandy, four teams the Gators all lost to on the road by an average of 11.5 point per game. When these teams played earlier in the year in Gainesville, the game went into OT before Florida pulled away. Kentucky feels it can beat this club and with the raucus home crowd behind him will have enough to ease on by Florida. I love Kentucky's defense in this game. The Cats are one of the better field goal shooting offense and field goal shooting defense combos in the country (47th on O, 15th on D), and I will take that mixture every time whem playing at home in such a crucial game than this.
OSU pick over MSU. Something has to give here. MSU has had some clunkers on the road this year, while OSU has fallen short a few times this year in the big league showdowns at home. Both, though, are coming off winning results last time out in those positions. I'll stick with home cooking here. Among the top-5 big ten teams, the homes team is 9-6-1 ATS. Wisco and PU have been the road warriors, however, and if you take out their results, the home club is 7-1-1 in top tier showdowns. Basically, OSU needs this game to have any at large credibility. MSU does not need this game at all. In fact, with the teams headed for a rematch in Friday's 4/5 game in the big 10 quarters, Izzo would probably rather have that game that today's. They might hold back fro a strategy standpoint, which should allow OSU shooters more room to move. Here is the stat that really sold me here: Since the 2001 season, MSU is just 4-16 SU in the second game of back to back conference road games!
UNC Wilmington +7 over George Mason. This game should be a war. I expect it to go down to the final possession or two. GM has familiar faces from its 2006 final four run. UNCW is an experience laden team bent on adding anoth trophy to the school's case. The Seahawks have won this tourney 4 of the last 8 years. They are hardly overmatched in this one. In fact, they kinda, sorta own the Patriots. They've won three in a row and 6 of the last 8 straight up over GM and are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games head to head. They have been money makers in league games this year, going 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs the Colonial, 6-2 ATS as a dog. GM is just 7-9-2 as a league favorite this year, and that number is trending downward with a 2-5-1 mark in the last eight. Both teams have enough play making guards to neutralize the other. I give UNCW a slight edge in the front court. Up front Hendley and Kuljanin are just a little taller than Birdsong and Thomas. In their two games this year, the UNCW pair has averaged 26 points and 18 boards vs the GM pair getting 17 and 18. GM was not able to stop them from scoring in either game. As a result, UNCW swept GM this year. Will they get a third? Not sure about that, but this game can go either way and the seven points seems like a nice gift. Hope so as I could use one after lasst night!.
UK ml, OSU and UNCW. Those are the plays for now. All double plays!
Good Luck!
Yesterday was a lousy 10-13 day. After winning during the day, I took the gas pipe at night, losing double plays on Duke and Niagara. Those games hurt. UNC scores the final 10 points of the game and Marist basically did the same against Niagara until a worthless late bucket. Hard to believe that happened twice and it was a swing of 10 units! If only one of those happens, I still have a winning night. Those are the breaks, and I will patiently and without complaining wait for the Karma to come back my way! Here is what I have so far today:
Three Double Plays:
UK ML -140 over Florida. I am staying on the Kentucky train. Why not? The Cats are 11-4 SU and ATS in SEC play this year. Meanwhile the young Gators are are only 2-7 ATS in their last nine league games. They are 3-5 SU on the road, which is respectable, but they are 0-5 SU on the road vs winning teams. The Cats have won SU all seven of their SEC homes games. In the process they beat Ole Miss, Arkansas, Tenn and Vandy, four teams the Gators all lost to on the road by an average of 11.5 point per game. When these teams played earlier in the year in Gainesville, the game went into OT before Florida pulled away. Kentucky feels it can beat this club and with the raucus home crowd behind him will have enough to ease on by Florida. I love Kentucky's defense in this game. The Cats are one of the better field goal shooting offense and field goal shooting defense combos in the country (47th on O, 15th on D), and I will take that mixture every time whem playing at home in such a crucial game than this.
OSU pick over MSU. Something has to give here. MSU has had some clunkers on the road this year, while OSU has fallen short a few times this year in the big league showdowns at home. Both, though, are coming off winning results last time out in those positions. I'll stick with home cooking here. Among the top-5 big ten teams, the homes team is 9-6-1 ATS. Wisco and PU have been the road warriors, however, and if you take out their results, the home club is 7-1-1 in top tier showdowns. Basically, OSU needs this game to have any at large credibility. MSU does not need this game at all. In fact, with the teams headed for a rematch in Friday's 4/5 game in the big 10 quarters, Izzo would probably rather have that game that today's. They might hold back fro a strategy standpoint, which should allow OSU shooters more room to move. Here is the stat that really sold me here: Since the 2001 season, MSU is just 4-16 SU in the second game of back to back conference road games!
UNC Wilmington +7 over George Mason. This game should be a war. I expect it to go down to the final possession or two. GM has familiar faces from its 2006 final four run. UNCW is an experience laden team bent on adding anoth trophy to the school's case. The Seahawks have won this tourney 4 of the last 8 years. They are hardly overmatched in this one. In fact, they kinda, sorta own the Patriots. They've won three in a row and 6 of the last 8 straight up over GM and are 7-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games head to head. They have been money makers in league games this year, going 11-4 ATS in their last 15 vs the Colonial, 6-2 ATS as a dog. GM is just 7-9-2 as a league favorite this year, and that number is trending downward with a 2-5-1 mark in the last eight. Both teams have enough play making guards to neutralize the other. I give UNCW a slight edge in the front court. Up front Hendley and Kuljanin are just a little taller than Birdsong and Thomas. In their two games this year, the UNCW pair has averaged 26 points and 18 boards vs the GM pair getting 17 and 18. GM was not able to stop them from scoring in either game. As a result, UNCW swept GM this year. Will they get a third? Not sure about that, but this game can go either way and the seven points seems like a nice gift. Hope so as I could use one after lasst night!.
UK ml, OSU and UNCW. Those are the plays for now. All double plays!
Good Luck!
Bucks and Cats!!!
:00hour :00hour
Still got a double play on UNCW +7. Might add some smaller plays as I break down the four different semifinals going on later today/tonight.
Good Luck! :weed:
:00hour :00hour
Still got a double play on UNCW +7. Might add some smaller plays as I break down the four different semifinals going on later today/tonight.
Good Luck! :weed:
Added a quick, single play on the Colonial Semi ready to tip in a few minutes.
William Mary +12.5 over VCU. W/M been a scrappy team all season. They were the only dog to cover yesterday in this tournament. I dont think they're going down quietly today.
William Mary +12.5 over VCU. W/M been a scrappy team all season. They were the only dog to cover yesterday in this tournament. I dont think they're going down quietly today.
Playing another one.
A Double Play.
Loyola Maryland +7 over Siena. Riding Loyola, who I won on yesterday. Another curious line, and one I feel compelled to bite on. Like the Colonial semi between UNCW-GM, we have a decent sized underdog catching points from a team it has beaten twice already. Maybe I am being suckered into a pair of traps, we'll see. But, I think this is an even matchup that could go either way. Both clubs have won money during MAAC games with LM going 12-7 and Siena 11-8, but Siena's covering percentage dips slightyly as a favorite, 8-7, while Loyola's jumps to 6-2 when installed as a dog. Translation: I like the dog here especially one thats playing as well as Loyola right now.
A Double Play.
Loyola Maryland +7 over Siena. Riding Loyola, who I won on yesterday. Another curious line, and one I feel compelled to bite on. Like the Colonial semi between UNCW-GM, we have a decent sized underdog catching points from a team it has beaten twice already. Maybe I am being suckered into a pair of traps, we'll see. But, I think this is an even matchup that could go either way. Both clubs have won money during MAAC games with LM going 12-7 and Siena 11-8, but Siena's covering percentage dips slightyly as a favorite, 8-7, while Loyola's jumps to 6-2 when installed as a dog. Translation: I like the dog here especially one thats playing as well as Loyola right now.
Nice start so far, but we're not done yet.
Single Play
Maryland +.5 2H over UVA. Forgot about the tip of this game. Wanted to take the Terps all along who have been steaming all week about that Clemson lose. With this halftime line and 1-pt Terp intermission lead, its as if I never forgot about the tip.
Fear the Turtle and Good Luck!
Single Play
Maryland +.5 2H over UVA. Forgot about the tip of this game. Wanted to take the Terps all along who have been steaming all week about that Clemson lose. With this halftime line and 1-pt Terp intermission lead, its as if I never forgot about the tip.
Fear the Turtle and Good Luck!
Thanks Cie......the Bucks were a nice win for both of us!
And, we're on the same page again tonight in the final game of the day.
San Diego +5.5 over St Mary. Double Play. San Diego already beat the Gaels on this court earlier this season. I do not think this game much more than a pick 'em, so I will gladly take the points with SD. The Toreos went 19-9 ATS this season. They have always been a solid dog play going 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a dog. This year they were 13-4 when catching points including 6-0 against league foes. With their season on the line and playing in their hoe gym, I will ride those numbers with San Diego.
Good Luck and Good Night Everyone!
And, we're on the same page again tonight in the final game of the day.
San Diego +5.5 over St Mary. Double Play. San Diego already beat the Gaels on this court earlier this season. I do not think this game much more than a pick 'em, so I will gladly take the points with SD. The Toreos went 19-9 ATS this season. They have always been a solid dog play going 20-7 ATS in their last 27 as a dog. This year they were 13-4 when catching points including 6-0 against league foes. With their season on the line and playing in their hoe gym, I will ride those numbers with San Diego.
Good Luck and Good Night Everyone!
March Madness Thread YTD: 23-21-1.
A nice 9-3 bounce back day to push the record of this thread over .500 and into a small amount of profit. Hopefully I can keep it rolling tonight.
Running late, so no time for long right ups:
Sienna ML -160 over Rider. Double Play. A little steep ML price, but I think the Saints get it done. I feel they're playing better than Rider, they are healthier and playing on their home court. When the season began with Siena playing the Orange in the Carrier Dome, I slated them as the top team in this league and the favorite to get the auto bid. While the league race was uber tight, nothing I saw this year led me to believe there was a more talented team in the MAAC than Siena. More than three months later, I am putting my money behind that analysis with this double play.
A nice 9-3 bounce back day to push the record of this thread over .500 and into a small amount of profit. Hopefully I can keep it rolling tonight.
Running late, so no time for long right ups:
Sienna ML -160 over Rider. Double Play. A little steep ML price, but I think the Saints get it done. I feel they're playing better than Rider, they are healthier and playing on their home court. When the season began with Siena playing the Orange in the Carrier Dome, I slated them as the top team in this league and the favorite to get the auto bid. While the league race was uber tight, nothing I saw this year led me to believe there was a more talented team in the MAAC than Siena. More than three months later, I am putting my money behind that analysis with this double play.
Adding the West Coast Conference Championship Game:
Single Play
San Diego +7.5 over Gonzaga. Yes, San Diego did expend a lot last night in the thilling comeback double OT victory over St. Mary's. Will they have anything left in their tank? Before you discount them on that aspect along, remember less than 24 hours the Zags were pushed to the final possession against Santa Clara. In the Toreos they are facing a better team than those Broncos last night. SD needs the game or the season is likely done. The kids will have more than enough energy and a major adrenaline advantage of their home crowd. Given their history, how do you not take a look at San Diego when they are catching points. Since the start of the 2003 season, SD is 48-27 ATS as a dog. That trend carried through this year with SD logging a 13-4 dog ATS mark this season, including seven in row when taking points against a conference opponent.
Single Play
San Diego +7.5 over Gonzaga. Yes, San Diego did expend a lot last night in the thilling comeback double OT victory over St. Mary's. Will they have anything left in their tank? Before you discount them on that aspect along, remember less than 24 hours the Zags were pushed to the final possession against Santa Clara. In the Toreos they are facing a better team than those Broncos last night. SD needs the game or the season is likely done. The kids will have more than enough energy and a major adrenaline advantage of their home crowd. Given their history, how do you not take a look at San Diego when they are catching points. Since the start of the 2003 season, SD is 48-27 ATS as a dog. That trend carried through this year with SD logging a 13-4 dog ATS mark this season, including seven in row when taking points against a conference opponent.
March Madness Thread YTD: 26-21-1
Picked up three units yesterday. Siena and San Diego, thank you!!
A few plays tonight, but getting started with the Summit Championship.
Oral Roberts ML, -160, over IUPUI. Single Play. These teams played a pair of close games this year. Oral has the near home court edge and I think they are better by a nose. They get the auto bid tonight.
Good Luck.
Picked up three units yesterday. Siena and San Diego, thank you!!
A few plays tonight, but getting started with the Summit Championship.
Oral Roberts ML, -160, over IUPUI. Single Play. These teams played a pair of close games this year. Oral has the near home court edge and I think they are better by a nose. They get the auto bid tonight.
Good Luck.
C'mon Oral Roberts! Hold on and bring this baby home!!
Adding a 9 oclock start with the Horizon League Championship.
Single Play
CSU +10 over Butler. The Vikings have had a great Renaissance this year. Their best season since Mouse McFadden ran the court and Coach Mackey was doing lines of Coke at the half. Ok, maybe that was a low blow there.
But, I think CSU hangs with Butler tonight. They've split SU both their games and CSU covered both contests. As gaudy as Butler's record is, they have mastered the art of winning, but not covering. Example: They are just 5-12-1 ATS this year in Horizon League head to heads. CSU, meanwhile, comes in covering seven in a row. I have won double plays on their last two games, so I will make a small play on them tonight and hope they can give the Bulldogs another un for their money.
Real quickly.....this is a huge game.....a CSU win crushes the bubble even more......lot of teams holding their breath with this result.
Good Luck!
Adding a 9 oclock start with the Horizon League Championship.
Single Play
CSU +10 over Butler. The Vikings have had a great Renaissance this year. Their best season since Mouse McFadden ran the court and Coach Mackey was doing lines of Coke at the half. Ok, maybe that was a low blow there.
But, I think CSU hangs with Butler tonight. They've split SU both their games and CSU covered both contests. As gaudy as Butler's record is, they have mastered the art of winning, but not covering. Example: They are just 5-12-1 ATS this year in Horizon League head to heads. CSU, meanwhile, comes in covering seven in a row. I have won double plays on their last two games, so I will make a small play on them tonight and hope they can give the Bulldogs another un for their money.
Real quickly.....this is a huge game.....a CSU win crushes the bubble even more......lot of teams holding their breath with this result.
Good Luck!
Last edited:
March Madness Thread YTD: 27-22-1.
Nice rally the last few days, although it would have been nice has CSU shot the ball better last night, or if the Jackson kid had not turned his ankle. Maybe they stay in the game at that point.
Gonna be starting a new thread for the final five days of Championship Week, so this will be the final post for this one.
Good Luck! :weed:
Nice rally the last few days, although it would have been nice has CSU shot the ball better last night, or if the Jackson kid had not turned his ankle. Maybe they stay in the game at that point.
Gonna be starting a new thread for the final five days of Championship Week, so this will be the final post for this one.
Good Luck! :weed:
