Championship Week Saturday

[Toledo Prophet]

March Madness YTD: 43-40-4

Just got back from the gym. Here's what I decided for the the first game of the day.

Conference USA Championship Game.

Tulsa/Memphis Over 131. Double Play.
Tulsa +18. Single Play

Who knew Tulsa would get to where they are a game away from the NCAAa. After a 2-4 start, they steadied themselves and got some nice wins--remember the 'Does Tulsa Have 5 Players Who Can Chew Gum Play'? That was classic over Colorado. Oh Agent, Where Art Thou?!?! Anyway. the Golden Hurrican have played very well since February rolled around having won 11 of their last 14 games. All have been league contests and they averageed 72.8 points in those contests. So, I feel Tulsa will score pretty well today. Since I think Memphis will still win, I think this soars over the fairly low total. What is the Tigers motivation here? Think Tulsa is peaking and will scrap and claw to keep this one close.

Good Luck!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Added:

UK ML, -180 over UGA. Double Play.

Cheaper than last night. And, despite the goofy situation surrounding the game, I will stay on it. UK has been very good to me during league play starting with the conference opening win over Vandy more than two months ago. Taking them with points or in a close to a 'to win' situation has been about a solid investment the last two months as anything else. In Gillespie I Trust. They way he's got this team to this point is amazing, and I am banking that they have at least one ore SEC win in them. They've already handled Georgia twice. They will still have a huge contingent of fans there taking away whatever home court edge the Dogs may have playing in their home state. They did not come this far the last two months to fumble here. They will get the W today.

Good Luck!

 

[Dice34]

hopefully tulsa will rebound here in the 2nd half.....i took them +4 (ev) 2H.......they shot 23% and mem shot damn near 60%.....

lets go tulsa

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Thanks Dice!

I still think that over may hit if Tulsa can find any stride this half. Hard to hit an over when only one team is putting the ball through the hoop.

And, I am with you on the 2nd Half as I made a single play on Tulsa +4.5.

Good Luck to us!! :toast:

 

[Dice34]

this is almost like deja vu of when the last time they played.........memphis led 43-19......2nd half was Tulsa 48-Mem 39

over 69 looks enticing

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Lets Go UK!!! I need ya to come out even here in the early going. Apparenty, at least in the first half, Tulsa did not dress five guys who could walk and chew gum!

Adding:

UNC/Va Tech Over 146. Double Play.

Tech is a surprising 11-4-2 going over the total in their ACC games this year. Going against UNC, they face a teams thats 18-10-1 on the Over during the whole year. UNC scores 89.2 points per game. Hokies have a nice D, but its not elite enough to keep UNC that far from that average. But, I do think the Hokies have enough guys who make plays to take advantage of UNC's lax D at times. They wont put up 11 like Tulsa did.

 

[Dice34]

way to hit that 2nd half spread....

i like UNC to come out guns drawn and cover the 6.5 1h.....should be alot of pts

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Adding:

Michigan State +4 over Wisco. Double Play.

Conventional wisdom says the regular season champ Badgers should win over an MSU club that has thrown up some awful losses on the road this year. But, I am bucking that. Sparty has more talent, and in Izzo they have a great coach. They did get the Badgers in East Lansing this season, so they want to send a message to Wisco today. I think MSU will play faster than the Badgers today. Love them in this revenge spot.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Added:

Texas ML, -260.

Single Play.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Added:

MSU +2, 2nd Half. Single Play

Just from watching, I like what I see out of MSU as they match up today compared to when they played a few weeks back in Madison. They for sure look more confident and are scoring the ball compared to that night. I love what Wisco does year in and year out, but I like MSU's talent this one. Think they win the second half and the game.

Between UK and PU--two teams that won me the most money this year--flat out letting down and losing to squads with losing records, i am in a sour mood. Never would have played those expensive money lines on just anyone, but the way those two had been paying off all season, it looked, sigh, too easy. Needless to say, we will be amputating those feet of mine that got snared in both those respective bear traps.:142smilie

 

[Toledo Prophet]

I have taken a couple kicks to the groin already this afternoon. Amazing what a couple end of game sequences can do to swing your day. Wow. Anyway, playing this:

Clemson +4.5 Double. Like Clemson's fight. Think they dominate the glass. Think the nuetral court setting might limit Duke three ball effeciveness. Been getting killed on favorites, so I am just taking the dog and see what happens. :shrug:

Good Luck and Go Tigers!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Added:

Minny +2 over Illinois. Double Play. Very interesting Cinderella matchup here with the winner getting a chance to make to make the field tomorrow. It would be, to say the least, an unlikely bid for either of them. The one thing Illinois has done well all year, was beat Minnesota. Seems like everything I've picked up during the year has been tossed out the window vis a vis how teams have been playing and how they previously matchup with one another. So, I am discounting those wins, even the one that took place just last week. I thin the Gohpers are the better team. They shoot the ball better and I really do feel that in the end, as it always does, the Illini's inability to convert from the line will keep them from winning in the end. Another stat I like: Tubby Smith is 28-10 all time in league tournaments. I think he has instilled an interesting mixture of confidence in his boys that they can win these tourney games. Illinois is still wheezing down the stretch as I see it.

Good Luck! :weed:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Added:

Tamu +11. Double Play. That should keep me busy for awhile. On all three puppies right now.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

A trio of 6:00 games.

Arky +6 over Vols. Double Play. Ok, OK. I am now officially sold on the wonder that is the underdog in the SEC tournament. Game ought to be a track meet and the Hogs have the horses to keep up. Vols have had trouble closing out foes lately, which I dont think bodes well in this situation where their eyes are on a much bigger prize than this.

Temple +2 over Joe. Double Play. Both teams won by a single point on the other guys court in their head to heads this year. So, that leaves it up to my eyes and what I have seen as the season went on. I ilke Temple more. They had the better league season. They beat Xavier just like Joe's did. Owls are 15-3 ATS in their last 18 conference games.

Arky Over 147. Single Play. Should be a track meet.

UCLA ML -165 over Stanford. Single Play. UCLA has been the dominant Pac 10 team now for three seasons. They just win, even when its not pretty. Think this is a pretty cheap price for them here.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Everything else today will be a double play unless noted:

Kent ML, -135 over Akron. Yes, they were pushed to the limit against Miami last night. Yes, it is hard to beat a team, especially a rival, three times in one season. But, I still favor Kent in this one. Over the league season, they proved to be the best team. I think last night showed how ready for primie tie Kent is. The redhawks are very hard to place against. Tonight, they will find the game and pace more to their liking. If they could make the plays necessary to get by the tricky Miami club, then I think they will have the mettle to make the plays in the game which will be played more to their style.

UNLV -1 over BYU. How do you not take a flier on the Rebs at home in this spot. Under Kruger, they have been an amazing home team. They've gone 33-3 on this floor the last two seasons and have won 21 straight conference games at the T/M Center. They have topped BYU five straight times on this floor, including a 25-point drubbing this season. Now BYU did return the woodshed when they played in Provo. And, I do expect a much closer game than the two previous head to heads. I'll ride the Rebs streak on this floor.

I'm in the mood to gamble I guess. We'll see if they are any upcoing halftime plays.

Good Luck!

 

[Cie]

Looks like a strong finish today, TP. Let's keep it rolling:toast:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Thanks Cie! Looks like you had a pretty strong card today as well. Nice work as always!

Here are my late plays.

Pitt +6 over Gtown. I know the Hoyas have played strong this weekend, but for the most part they have been winning, yet not covering during conference season. Pitt beat them back in January thanks to a strong effort on the glass and on the defensive end. Butler will standout tonight. No reason to think Pitt cant at least match that effort and take this game down to the wire. Panthers are 15-8 ATS in their last 22 Big East Tournament games.

Boise +7 over NMSU. I know the Aggies are hot on their home court. But the WAC was one of the best races all regular season. Their one and probably only bid will get decided in a close track meet a la the Tenn/Arky game.

Boise Over 156. I see a game in the 160s.

Fullerton ML -260. So, I am going to end the night by biting down hard another expensive ML play. But, Fullerton will have more pure motivation than those previous teams. They have been fairly dominant in the Big West this season. Truly the elite team in the league. They will get the win tonight.

All double plays.

Good Luck! :weed: