Championship Week Thread Part II

[Toledo Prophet]

Starting a new thread here for the back part of Championship Week with the BCS leagues getting their conference tournies underway today.

First thread ended a successful 27-22-2, which actually pushed my overall record of posted plays this season above the .500 mark to 118-114-4. So I am hoping for a big push ths weekend to get me into a profit situation headed into the real tournament. Good Luck!

Getting started with:

S'Cuse-Nova Over 146.5. Single Play

Syracuse......Villanova......no, Syracuse.......no, Villanova. That pretty much is how this game has gone back and forth in my mind. Really, can we trust either of these teams to pick up an important win. Seems like they have failed more than succeeded this year when they needed a Big W. But, I do trust both these teams to fill it up. Both games between the two this year went over the 150-point mark. Each of their last three games head to head and 5 of the their last 7 match-ups have gone over today's set total. Both teams socre the ball well and average well into the 70s per game. Neither plays great defense as both are in the bottom half of the points allowed per game stat. The Orange is particular rank 283rd nationally in points allowed. The winner in Syracuse's Big East games this year has average 78 points per game. I feel the winner today will equal that mark and since I do expect a close game, I see this final score inevitably going over the 147 mark.

Eastern Michigan -1 (-120) over Ball St. Single Play. So, I dont trust Nova or the Orange, but I do trust EMU? Well, not exactly. This is more of an anti-Ball St play. EMU has had a nice season going 8-8 in league play while BSU has been a disaster. EMU finished three games ahead of them in the standings and they played comparable schedules. EMU has won three of four over the Cardinals and five of the last seven. Think EMU has enough to get one more win this year, while Ball St just wants to end the season.

Good Luck! :weed:

Just updated the post to reflect the lines I actually got. The Orange total dipped and EMU went down to 1.5, so I bought off the hook to -1.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

1-1 on the afternoon.

Making a Single Play on my hometown Rockets.

Toledo -1 over BGSU. Falcons beat the Rockets in BG last month, but Toledo is playing better right now and think they exact a measure of revenge on their rivals.

Might have one or two more for tonight.

Good Luck!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Three plays for later tonight.

All Single Plays.

Hall +11 over Marquette. Think the Hall is not that bad of a club. Think they throw everything at the Eagles tonight and while it wont be enough to nab the win, they stay within single digits.

URI -1 over UNCC. Maybe I remember the Rams from the good results early in the year. Think they have more talent in this one, and, maybe they revert back to form and recapture their winning ways for at least one one more night.

Cal ML, -140 over UW. Cal is better. My opinion, yes, but I have watched their last two battles with the LA schools and they played well in defeat both times. Think they are going tofight tooth and nail tonight to keep their season alive and get that rematch with the Bruins tonorrow. I dont like taking the Huskies unless they are at home.

Good Luck tonight!! :weed:

 

[spang]

It will be interesting to see how much gas Cal has left in the tank after those two stinging losses.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

3-3 day yesterday. Thanks URI and Hall.

Which fellow madjacker wants to be in charge of punching me in the stomach next time I even think about betting on URI again? Job is open to anyone.

Ok, took the early ones off, but I have a couple of single plays going in this next session.

Uconn ML -150 over WVA. Think the Huskies just have more talent. Defend the three ball and you take WVA out of the comfort zone. They have owned this series taking eight of the last 10 SU vs WVA. Uconn has been playing well against the better teams, too, logging a 7-1-1 ATS mark vs teams with winning records and a ncie 36-17-1 ATS mark as short favs of less than 7 points. Still, I am risking a little extra juice on the ML as I see Uconn getting it done today.

Richmond +9 over Joe. This game will be close, and I like the Spiders getting the points. They were 11-6-1 ATS this year catching points and they are 13-6-1 vs A-10 foes overall. Plus, Richmond has been a solid bounce back team all year. They lost in their last game, but Richmond was 9-1-1 ATS this year after a loss. This will be a low scoring, tight affair all the way through.

Good Luck! :weed:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

An 0-2 Thursday afternoon. Yuck. For tonight, there are a lot of games between unreliable teams. Can any of us really count on either team, for example, in the UVA-Ga Tech or Mizz-Neb games? :shrug: I'd like to try and pick winners in those games. If you can go 2-0 in those games, then you are a much better capper--or coin flipper--than I am. Then, in the marquee early evening game, it looks like Lousville should roll. But, Pitt is so hard to go against in the Big East tournament, especially when getting points. Perhaps, I will just pour a drink and just enjoy watching it. :0corn Meanwhile, I cant pick anything right all year in the A-10. Besides, all those teams have been in contact with URI, so I will avoid their games (at least for now

But I did find one game. A Double Play.

Florida ML -170 over Alabama. You could say the Baby Gators are just as unreliable as some of the teams I passed on above. But, they did win 21 games. And, playing a harder conference schedule, they did manage to acquit themselves in the standings much better than the Crimson Tide did. They are on a three-game slide, but Alabama on a neutral floor is s step down in competition than the trio of foes (MSU, Tenn, UK) that Florida has recently fallen too. Here's my basic take on this one: Florida beat Bama by seven points in Tuscaloosa back in early January. Are either of the teams much more improved than that? Probably not, so I expect a similar result. I do think Florida has been improving--better than Bama at least--in that I like their young talent, on court chemistry, and better coaching. Plus Florida needs this game or their tourney hopes burn up. I'll take the team that has more to play for going up against the crew who has the the 274th ranked scoring defense and 251st ranked three-poiont % defense in the nation.

Good Luck! :weed:

***Just a note, I edited thiis post as I went ahead and made Florida a Double Play. Go Gators! Call it an Erin Andrews Special!

 

[Toledo Prophet]

The Florida Gators. Worst. Pick. Ever.

Yikes......ok, so today is not going to be my day.....lets try to minimize this damage and rebound towards the rest of the weekend with a few "late session" plays.

One for now, but I will have one more post tonight.

Oregon +4 over Wassau. Double Play.

You would think the Cougars will get the Ducks best shot tonight. After an uneven season, Oregon might be a win away in this one tonight from a tourney bid. But, lets throw out all those motivations our for a second. This is a strict and basic technical play. The Pac 10 tournament has been the Ducks' season. Since the tourney restarted in 2001, Oregon is 10-3-1 ATS (including five covers in their last six games) in Pac 10 tourney games. The Ducks seem to thrive in this tournament and rarely bow out in their first game. Wassau, meanwhile, has only won two games outright in this event. Oregon owns the head to head as of late, as well, covering six of the seven between these clubs and eight of the last 10, including a 4-0 ATS record during that run when installed as the underdog. . It will be a contrast between the Ducks up and down the floor offense and the Cougars sticky half court defense, but the Ducks have proven their ability to adjust to the uniqueness of this tourney. I will ride that in this critical Pac 10 quarterfinal game.

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Ok, with the start the Ducks have had, I am not sure this is enough alcohol in this house to soothe the continued pain. Florida toyed with me there too thinking they might actually get back in it. Sigh. Playing this one in the final Big East game of the day.

ND/Marquette Over 149. Double Play.

Like most Notre Dame games, this one has tremendous shootout potential. In Big East play, the Over has hit in 13 of ND's 18 games. The winner in their conference games has averaged 83 points per game, exceeding 90 points 7 times and 80 another six times. With both teams there is enough firepower for three or four explosive offensive runs which will spike the total points. With these shooters on both teams, I dont see many scoring droughts either. Or defense. ND scores a lot and give up a lot. With James and company, Marquette will do a lot of damage. Until last night's Under, Marquette's Big East games had hit the over in six of the last eight games. ND overs in their marquee league games have been a money maker this season, so I am staying on it.

Good Luck! :weed:

 

[Toledo Prophet]

Getting close to tip.....i am in chase mode.

Arizona +2.5 over Stanford. Double Play. Eventually, wont one of the teams that needs to make a statement come through.?!?!

Weird day of hoops. Lot of bubble, need to win a game teams went down. Who knows how this will shake out. VCU may be backing themselves into the field.