Chargers at Bungholes

[Wise and Wiser]

San Diego -1.5

Please post any thoughts, trends, etc. you have on this game in this thread. I'm looking to nail it! Here's what I have so far:

*San Diego is 8-4 SU the last 3 years when the line is +3 to -3. Cincy is 8-8 SU the last 3 years when the line is +3 to -3.

*The best teams in the NFL right now own winning road records (Patriots, Ravens, Colts, Broncos, Giants, Bears, Saints). San Diego is 2-2. Are the Chargers an elite team? If so, maybe they win this game.

 

[hogman14]

Over is 9-2 in SD last 11 games in November.
SD are 14-4-2 ATS in their last 20 road games.
SD are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games in November.
Over is 9-2 in CIN last 11 games as an underdog.

 

[hogman14]

W/o Merriman this defense is good, but I don't know that they gel like they do with him anchoring it. They are a very good team, I don't know if they're in the NFL elite. Cincy in a must win situation, although who knows what that means to them. :mj07: I don't like making a play on a team that is vocal about displeasure with their coach, fwiw. Otherwise the Bungals would have been a play. Too many x factors here to cap imo.

gl.

 

[Eagles311]

As of now I agree with hogman. I'd lean towards the Bengals.

 

[pt1gard]

believe it or not these are my 2 fave teams ...

I have bet sd many times over last 3 years and cashed regularly ... bengals have seemingly imploded, Carson is pissed and his wrs seem not to care, making excuses, whining or not trying ala Henry ... truth is CP isnt close to where he was a year ago; cincy's running game in hibernation ... losing merriman hurts big, maybe the best play here is O ... cincy hasnt played well at home since browns game ... 1-2 since and if Delhomme hadnt thrown first red zone pick ever they might be 0-3 ...

sd is damn good; cincy is about avg ... obviously yhe HF means a ton and yes cincy is desperate, but SD is the better team playing better right now ...


i took sd -1 the sec it came out

gl, wise and wiser, Im w/ya

gregg

 

[dangerously]

My 2 cents.

On paper SD should win and cover, and it looks like Cinn has to many shortcomings in their game right now to take this.Even without Merriman Chargers should be too much to handle. If the line does'nt escalate later in the week looks to me like your on the right side!!

GL WISE.

 

[davids81]

I think that Palmer is going to get rushed, hit, and start throwing a la Grossman... Against a stout defense, I just don't like Palmer. (or grossman) I see the bengals turning the ball over, and you just can't do that against SD. LT will make you pay. I like SD here even though they're in Cincy. They should go in there and get it done. I think they're still trying to prove that they are elite. Winning on the road is a good test.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Fellas, I never said I like San Diego in this game! I posted the current line in bold, that's not my play. I am leaning towards the Chargers, but I want to hear from everyone before I make a final decision. Thanks for the input so far. Good luck!

 

[Emersonboozer]

For what its worth I think the Chargers can play well on the road especially outside of thier own division. Has Cincinatti given up? Thats a good question? times yours

 

[amich1]

i love fading west coast teams playing 1:00 games,
the travel & time zone change, not so much that players aren't up for the game its that they can't fall asleep the night before... San diego already lost once in this role @ balty & i'll take my chances & fade Rivers again on the road. i'll be fading san diego & san francisco this week

 

[pt1gard]

thats true amich, sd did lose that game to balt, i bet balt that day and was extremely lucky to cash ... sd shouldve won, that makes me think they will be doubly ready not to let it happen again ... cincy used to play like wild men on that field, but ever since Pats waltzed in and beat the ever living crap out of them, they have lost their swagger ...

 

[amich1]

well, miami had lost their swagger before last week too :mj07:

ill take a desperate homedog over a team coming off 2 wins that has a long roadtrip. The chargers defense is much different w/o merriman, no one noticed against Cleve lw but that won't be the cae this weekend. Despite their slump cinci will give max effort not to fall below 500

 

[ThrowinPicks]

From a perception standpoint, and thats all that betting the NFL is, the pick here is Cincy. I wouldnt be surprised to see Cincy win by 10 points here.

 

[Wise and Wiser]

*The Bungholes are 6-13 SU as an underdog during the last 3 seasons.

*The Bungholes are 5-11 SU when playing against a winning team during the last 3 seasons.

 

[pt1gard]

like i've said many times: there are no locks, just somewhat educated guesses ... these are my 2 fave teams and they are playing, maybe cincy bucks up, but thats a hope base don desperation, they are in turmoil and tho merriman is a stud, hes def. not all sd has on D ... they did play listlessly vs cleve, i followed every down of that game, but sd exploded in 2nd half and LT was running against air ... another reason I think they come out ready

 

[Wise and Wiser]

Thanks for the input fellas! I have decided to pass on this game. Some good arguments were made for both sides. My initial lean was San Diego, and now I'm starting to lean Cincy. Therefore, I will look elsewhere to make my money in week 10.

 

[tulah]

I like the Bengals.My main reason is Merrimen's out
He is a game changer & a force on the field.
I like CP to have a good day passing the ball. LW the Browns recievers were open time & time again. The S.D secondary will be exposed this week again.They had a ton of penalties called on the secondary also. A good pass rush will make your DB's look good.Merrimen makes that pass rush. I'll be fading the Chargers till he returns.

GL

 

[Fabulous]

Chargers win this game.

SD is 2nd in the NFL in rushing, Cincy is 25th. SD is 4th in NFL against the run Cincy is 24th. Huge rushing advantage for SD in this game.

Go Chargers

 

[tulah]

I get the Chargers on TV each week .It's the local media team.

I'll make it short & simple...S.D DB's are bad.
The good pass rush made them look good.
No Merrimen = No pass rush.

Carson Palmer will throw for 300 + 2-3 tds

 

[SoCalYo]

I get the Chargers on TV each week .It's the local media team.

I'll make it short & simple...S.D DB's are bad.
The good pass rush made them look good.
No Merrimen = No pass rush.

Carson Palmer will throw for 300 + 2-3 tds

I agree the chargers secondary sucks and in addition to Merriman and Phillips being out Castillo is now out. Looks like they'll have a couple of third stringers on defense as they did last week but having said that I dont see how the bengals can stop the chargers offense given that the running game is their strength. Over should be a solid play.