chasing the elusive Big Dog....

[bear]

Well, KC and Durbin did not get it done for me yesterday but maybe Andy Petite will give me a lift today by pitching a piss poor game and send me home with 2 for 1........ Detroit +200. Now I also like the over here so I'm gonna parlay small with that. Alright,the matchup....Sparks last 5 whip 1.23 but somewhat deceiving because of big outing on 6/18 where he went 9 vs these Yanks and only gave up 3 hits. Yanks shelled him for 11 hits and 6 runs in 6innings last week. Its not that I like Sparks so much.....Its that Pettite is very hittable right now.He is coming off 2 Ls and Detrot cranked him last week for 10 hits/7er/in 4 innings. Det. can hit these yanks(31 runs in last 3 games) Petite in his last 2 starts has given up 10 runs in 11 innings on 18 hits and hes 2 to 1 over a team with a higher team batting average,and similar on base %. Detroit has feasted on Yankee pitching of late and Sparks may just have enough to get the W off 5 days rest.
For the over 9 ....well in last 5 Sparks v Yanks the average is 13.9.....last 3 last week 42 runs in 3 games. I'm lookin for more of the same here. Will not pull the trigger on this for a while so someone can talk me out of it. whatdya think
bear

 

[tedy]

A thought Pettite can't be so bad always,right? Agree with OVER 9,5 !

 

[bear]

You're right Tedy.....BUT
Until he shows hes back on track and can get these Tigers out he seems to be an overpriced fav. because of good start this year. Yanks should win this game and are big Home winners. Det stinks on road but if I can get 2 to 1 on a pitcher thats struggling ....I'll give it a small shot with a team that just kicked his butt.
bear

 

[pepin46]

bear

kc won an improbable one on sunday, lost a pretty close to even chance yesterday. i was chasing that dog, as well as quite a few other guys here. so most of us missed the sunday and the monday one. oh well.

i have not looked at the pitching match-up, but last time i looked, detroit was just murdering, and i mean murdering, left handers.

i may come back later with a few facts or angles i may see.

if conditions are right, i may do the unthinkable, doubling up on this one.


pep

 

[RobertBIrish]

Just a few numbers on this one the Tigers are batting .294 on the year against lefties they are hitting .303 on the road against them and are batting .333 in their last 10. Pettitte is 2-5 in his last 7 starts against the Tigers and is 1-2 with a 6.88 ERA in his last 3 starts and the Tigers are 4-1 in the last 5 meetings. Sparks is 2-1 with an ERA of 2.74 and a WHIP of 1.04 he is 1-1 this year against them and won his last start in NY. I will take a 2-1 dog all day with numbers like that!

 

[bear]

Looks like this may be a live one guys!good stuff Robert
Pep..fwiw
I usually wait till I drop 2 in a row on these big (2 to 1) dogs before I increase so that if i can pick 1 of 3 I'm profitable by a unit.usually a half unit increase or whatever it takes to make the original unit.
bear

 

[pepin46]

sold!!!

robert, i look a bit more than the batting average, like the difference between hitting righties and lefties. i believe (don't quote me) the diff. is about 30 points, which is really outstanding.

not sure if any other team can match these number differentials.


pep

 

[RobertBIrish]

Pepin I agree totally those numbers are against lefties !