Chevy Rock & Roll 400 Preview

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Chevy Rock & Roll 400 Preview

This Saturday Night in Richmond, we got ourselves a good old fashioned Saturday Night Special.



For a few guys, they will be clawing their way to the front doing everything they can to make passes and get race themselves into NASCAR?s Chase for the Championship.



It?s the last race until the Chase starts with a few drivers very bunched pretty close together. It?s do or die time, the money race, and it?s the feature race just like at a local race track. It?ll have that old race track feel where driver?s dreams are on the line and the only way to make those dreams come true is race hard with reckless abandon.



It?s a shame it takes a one race shoot-out to bring out the very best, or worst, in the bubble drivers. But this is what makes this one race so great every year, because we all know what?s going to happen. This is the equivalent of football?s wild card; if a driver makes the final top 12 in points following Richmond, he?s still has to race himself to the top in what is essentially a ten week bracket culminating with the big game Miami on November 22.



Las Vegas? very own Busch Brothers, Kyle and Kurt, are right in the mix of things coming into Richmond. Kurt Busch is essentially locked in sitting seventh in points and would need a crazy set of circumstances to not make it.





However, Kyle is the one that needs some help. He?s currently sitting 14th and 37 points out of the 12th and final spot. The good news for Busch is that he?s racing at Richmond, a track where he has had his most consistent performances among all tracks.



Kyle?s 6.1 average finish at Richmond is tops among all drivers. He won the spring race there in May and in nine career races he has seven Top-5 finishes. This is the driver that is going to make this year?s Race to the Chase finale the most exciting ever just because all the drama he brings with him.



Kyle Busch might be the most disliked, booed, and harassed driver on the circuit. For some reason his antics, showmanship, and success have rubbed racing fans across America the wrong way. He?s going into a Hornets nest in Richmond where they are famed for being the loudest, rudest, and most intoxicated crowd on tour.



Twice a year, these fans in the Capital of the Confederation pump themselves up all Saturday afternoon to get themselves in game condition for the race at night. It?s a party of all parties and Kyle Busch is public enemy number one, taking over that role a few years ago from Jeff Gordon.



The biggest feather in the cap for Kyle is that he has thrived so much in such a hostile environment. He has taken their heated energy towards him and fueled himself to a level of being totally unabashed by the surroundings.



His race this time around means more than it ever has. Not only does he have the pressure of trying to show the fans up again, but he?s got to win or come close in order to ensure he gets in.



It?ll be a tough task, but it?ll definitely be worth the price of admission to watch what happens.



While all the hoopla surrounding Busch and his run to make the chase goes on, a few candidates are going to be also running as hard as possible to get that last win prior to the Chase which will elevate their position when the Chase starts.



Tony Stewart, Denny Hamlin, and Jimmie Johnson should all have terrific runs and race hard to get the bonus point for winning.



Stewart has finished second in three of the last four races, while Virginia native Hamlin has come close to winning, but has settled for three Top-3 runs in his seven starts.

Stewart had been the master of Richmond until Kyle Busch started with all his Top-5?s.



Stewart career average at Richmond in 21 starts is 10.1. He?s had three wins on the track, but none since 2002. Since 2002, Stewart has finished second four times, including this years race. Of all the drivers cemented in the Chase, Stewart seems like the most logical driver to let it all hang out late ad battle for the win.



Johnson has the distinction of winning this race last year and three of the last five.



However, in the two he didn?t win, he finished poorly at 30th and then 36th this year in May.

In all, Johnson has raced at Richmond 17 times, but has finished in the top-10 only four times, including those three wins which has made his average finish position look like an also ran at 18.7 a clip. He?s totaled five finishes of 30th or worse.



Chances are we?ll see the newer version of Johnson who has taken a liking to these type of tracks that include Phoenix and New Hampshire as well.



On that note, it?s a good idea for match-up bettors to take a look at the last races run at Phoenix and New Hampshire as well. When looking at New Hampshire, since it was rain shortened, just look at the lap leaders prior to the rain, or when Joey Logano took the lead by not pitting.



That race was shaping up similar to the way Richmond and Phoenix did earlier in the year with Johnson, Martin, Stewart, and Kyle Busch running well. No reason to think this race will be much different as those tops teams are likely to bring the same chassis? for this race.



The only difference for this race is a mindset of do or die for some and the freedom of going all out with no consequences for others.



TOP 5 Finish Prediction:

1) #14 Tony Stewart (7/1)

2) #18 Kyle Busch (6/1)

3) #11 Denny Hamlin (8/1)

4) #48 Jimmie Johnson (7/1)

5) #5 Mark Martin (12/1)
 

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Chase Clinch Scenarios

Chase Clinch Scenarios

Chase Clinch Scenarios

For Richmond: Eight spots remain in the 2009 Chase for the NASCAR Sprint Cup and 11 drivers are mathematically in contention for securing one. Below are the clinch scenarios for Richmond, the final race before the Chase field is set:
#99-Carl Edwards is currently 105 points ahead of 13th place.
Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes:
24th or better
25th and leads at least one lap or
27th and leads most laps.

#9-Kasey Kahne is currently 96 points ahead of 13th place.
Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes:
21st or better
23rd and leads at least one lap or
24th and leads most laps.



#2-Kurt Busch is currently 95 points ahead of 13th place.
Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes:
20th or better
22nd and leads at least one lap or
24th and leads most laps.

#42-Juan Pablo Montoya is currently 88 points ahead of 13th place.
Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes:
18th or better
20th and leads at least one lap or
21st and leads the most laps.

#39-Ryan Newman is currently 81 points ahead of 13th place.
Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes:
16th or better
17th and leads at least one lap or
19th and leads the most laps.

#5-Mark Martin is currently 69 points ahead of 13th place.
Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes:
12th or better
14th and leads at least one lap or
15th and leads the most laps.

#16-Greg Biffle is currently 68 points ahead of 13th place.
Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes:
11th or better
13th and leads at least one lap or
15th and leads the most laps.

#17-Matt Kenseth is currently 20 points ahead of 13th place.
Regardless of any other driver's finish, he will clinch if he finishes:
Second and leads at least one lap.

#83-Brian Vickers currently sits 13th, 17 points ahead of #18-Kyle Busch. He would need to gain 21 points on Kenseth and stay ahead of Busch to clinch a Chase spot. Busch, 37 points behind 12th, needs to gain 17 points on Vickers and 37 points on Kenseth to clinch. #00-David Reutimann, 132 points behind Kenseth, has an outside shot at clinching. He would have to gain 133 points on Kenseth. A maximum of 161 points can be made up in a given race. ?
 

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Odds and Ends - Richmond

Odds and Ends - Richmond

Odds and Ends - Richmond
Richmond International Raceway
History


Originally known as the Atlantic Rural Exposition Fairgrounds, Richmond International Raceway held its first race in 1946 as a .5-mile dirt track.
The first NASCAR Sprint Cup race was held on April 19, 1953.
The spring 1964 race was run on a Tuesday night under temporary lighting.
The track name changed to Virginia State Fairgrounds in 1967.
The track surface was changed from dirt to asphalt between races in 1968.
The track name changed to Richmond Fairgrounds Raceway in 1969.
Track was re-measured to .500 miles in April; then to .542 miles in September 1969.
The first NASCAR Nationwide Series race at Richmond was Feb. 20, 1982.
The track was rebuilt as a .750-mile D-shaped oval following the spring race on Feb. 21, 1988.
The first race under permanent lights was held Sept. 7, 1991.
The first season with both races as night races was 1999.
Notebook


There have been 106 NASCAR Sprint Cup races at Richmond since the track opened in 1953.
The current 400-lap race length was established on the .542-mile measurement in March 1976.
Buck Baker won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup pole in 1953.
Lee Petty won the first NASCAR Sprint Cup race in April 1953.
Davey Allison won the first .750-mile race at Richmond from the pole.
There have been 46 different pole winners, led by Bobby Allison and Richard Petty (eight).
Jeff Gordon (five) leads active drivers with five poles.
46 different drivers have posted victories at Richmond, led by Richard Petty (13).
Dale Earnhardt Jr., Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson (three) lead the active race winners.
Petty Enterprises has won 15 races at Richmond, more than any other car owner.
60 of 106 races at Richmond have been won from the top five starting positions, including 21 from the pole.
The last driver to win from the pole was Jimmie Johnson in September 2007.
11 of the past 13 races have been won from the top 10. Though, two of the last three race winners have started from outside the top 10, including this May?s winner, Kyle Busch.
The furthest back in the field that a race winner started was 31st, by Clint Bowyer in 2008?s spring race.
Kyle Petty became the first third-generation NASCAR race winner when he won his first race, at Richmond, on February 23, 1986. Richard Petty posted his first Richmond victory in 1961 and Lee won the very first Richmond race in 1953.
Two active drivers have a finish inside the top 10: Kyle Busch (6.1) and Denny Hamlin (9.6).

NASCAR in Virginia


There have been 264 NASCAR Sprint Cup races in Virginia.
158 drivers in NASCAR?s three national series (all-time) have their home state recorded as Virginia.
There have been 18 race winners from Virginia in NASCAR?s three national series:
Richmond International Raceway Data


Race # 26 of 36 (9-12-09)
Track Size: .75 miles


Banking/Corners: 14 degrees
Banking/Frontstretch: 8 degrees
Banking/Backstretch: 2 degrees
Frontstretch: 1,290 feet
Backstretch: 860 feet
Driver Rating at Richmond

Denny Hamlin 116.9
Kevin Harvick 114.6
Kyle Busch 112.1
Tony Stewart 105.1
Kurt Busch 94.8
Ryan Newman 94.6
Mark Martin 93.6
Dale Earnhardt Jr. 92.9
Jeff Gordon 92.5
Clint Bowyer 92.2

Note: Driver Rating compiled from 2005-2009 races (9 total) at Richmond.

Qualifying/Race Data

2008 pole winner: None (inclement weather)
2008 race winner: Jimmie Johnson (92.680 mph, 9-7-08)
Track qualifying record: Brian Vickers (129.983, 20.772 seconds, 5-14-04)
Track race record: Dale Jarrett (109.047 mph, 9-6-97)

Estimated Pit Window: Every 85-95 laps, based on fuel mileage
 

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Driver Highlights - Richmond

Driver Highlights - Richmond

Driver Highlights - Richmond

Note: All driver statistics that follow are from Richmond International Raceway. The Loop Data statistics ? Driver Rating, Average Running Position, etc. ? in this release, however, cover the last nine races at Richmond. NASCAR?s scoring loops began collecting data for statistical purposes in 2005.
Greg Biffle (No. 16 3M Ford)

Two top fives, five top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 15.8
Average Running Position of 15.5, 12th-best
Driver Rating of 87.6, 13th-best
89 Fastest Laps Run, 11th-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 117.188 mph, 10th-fastest
2,243 Laps in the Top 15 (62.1%), 10th-most
158 Quality Passes (passes of cars in the top 15 under green), 11th-most
Kurt Busch (No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge)

One win, two top fives, five top 10s
Average finish of 18.7
Average Running Position of 14.2, 10th-best
Driver Rating of 94.8, fifth-best
237 Fastest Laps Run, fourth-most
408 Green Flag Passes, ninth-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 117.379 mph, fifth-fastest
244 Quality Passes, third-most

Kyle Busch (No. 18 M&M's Toyota)

One win, seven top fives, seven top 10s
Average finish of 6.1
Average Running Position of 7.7, third-best
Driver Rating of 112.1, third-best
255 Fastest Laps Run, second-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 117.675 mph, second-fastest
3,137 Laps in the Top 15 (86.9%), second-most
241 Quality Passes, fourth-most
Dale Earnhardt Jr. (No. 88 AMP Energy Drink/National Guard Chevrolet)

Three wins, eight top fives, 10 top 10s
Average finish of 11.9
Average Running Position of 12.2, seventh-best
Driver Rating of 92.9, eighth-best
208 Fastest Laps Run, sixth-most
486 Green Flag Passes, third-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 117.269 mph, sixth-fastest
Denny Hamlin (No. 11 FedEx Toyota)

Three top fives, four top 10s; two poles
Average finish of 9.6
Series-best Average Running Position of 5.1
Series-best Driver Rating of 116.9
244 Fastest Laps Run, third-most
Series-best Average Green Flag Speed of 117.741 mph
2,754 Laps in the Top 15 (98.0%), fifth-most
Matt Kenseth (No. 17 DEWALT Ford)

One win, three top fives, nine top 10s
Average finish of 16.7
Average Running Position of 19.3, 21st-best
Driver Rating of 80.8, 17th-best
68 Fastest Laps Run, 13th-most
1,681 Laps in the Top 15 (46.6%), 15th-most
Mark Martin (No. 5 Kellogg's/CARQUEST Chevrolet)

One win, 16 top fives, 26 top 10s; three poles
Average finish of 11.9
Average Running Position of 13.6, ninth-best
Driver Rating of 93.6, seventh-best
98 Fastest Laps Run, 10th-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 117.236 mph, eighth-fastest
2,320 Laps in the Top 15 (64.3%), eighth-most
Ryan Newman (No. 39 U.S. Army Chevrolet)

One win, five top fives, nine top 10s; one pole
Average finish of 11.7
Average Running Position of 10.3, fifth-best
Driver Rating of 94.6, sixth-best
Average Green Flag Speed of 117.247 mph, seventh-fastest
3,082 Laps in the Top 15 (85.4%), third-most
215 Quality Passes, sixth-most
Brian Vickers (No. 83 Red Bull Toyota)

One top 10; two poles
Average finish of 27.8
Average Running Position of 25.1, 35th-best
Driver Rating of 57.7, 36th-best
19 Fastest Laps Run, 25th-most
Average Green Flag Speed of 116.414 mph, 39th-fastest
592 Laps in the Top 15 (18.4%), 26th-most
 
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