Chi / Mia Under 37

[Nolan Dalla]

I like the UNDER in this game. Neither offense has been consistent. And certainly, with the Dolphins strong defense -- it's conceivable the Bears could be completely shut down in this game. Chicago lacks a running game, which will make it difficult for them to establish long drives and keep the ball from Miami. They average an awful 82 YPG (the NFL's worst -- even Houston and Detroit have better numbers). They just so happen to be facing the NFL's #4 defense against the run. The bottom line is -- I don't think Chicago will be able to move the ball on Miami. For the Dolphins, looks for a more conservative game plan that will use RB Wiliams heavily and keep the clock moving. Norv Turner's offense focuses on high percentages passes and lots of misdirection. With a feature RB, he routinely gives his main back 25+ carries. Dolphins will also be careful not to exppose QB Fiedler to a pass rush. I expect lots of short, rapid fire 10-yard passes. Last thing Dolphins want to do is leave Fieldler in the pocket searching downfield for receivers, as if he's re-injured, there goes the Dolphin's season. If Miami builds any kind of lead, you can look for Miami to get very conservative and move the ball up and down the field with a number of 6-7 minute drives.

CONCUSION: Chicago has used mirrors to somehow score points this season. It seems every time they score, it's a fluke play or something unusual. That trickery won't work against a good defense like Miami. Since Bears have no running game, Miami will be able to play extra DBs and create all kinds of problems for the Chicago offense. Add the possibility of rain and that only increases the likelihood of more running plays than passing plays.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Nolan,
I went through almost this exact line of thinking, but ultimately came to the other conclusion (over). No one in Chicago (or anywhere for that matter) knows how it is that the Bears put up around 20 week after week with no offense, but this now goes back to last season, so I see no reason why we should figure that trend to stop this week. I see the Dolphins getting ahead early, which will force the Bears to throw more than they want to (though they will obstinately still try to run the ball way too many times). More throws in the rain could lead to some turnovers and easy points. The real kicker for me is that by the time they reach the 2nd half, the Fins should be comfortably ahead and will try and run clock off. But looking at the Chicago D, possibly without Traylor and Urlacher (and certainly with neither at 100%) I think the Dolphins score a few TDs without even trying. Throw in a late garbage TD for Chicago and I think you're looking at about a 31-10 game here.

Respect your capping a lot and hate being on the other side from you, but I'm going with the over and laying the points. Hopefully, if you're right and this one goes under it will be because Miami shut out the Bears and I'll get at least a split out of it.

GL

 

[Ronnie]

Great write-up Nolan!! Totally agree on the total. Think this game will be lopsided with a Miami blowout.

 

[Wilson]

The key to the over is the absence of Anthony Thomas....Bears have no running game...thus will rely on putting the ball in the air.........Over is the obvious choice.

 

[Stag]

Nolan......I'm taking the UNDER 38.5 at S.I.A...........will pick up WINS on BOTH very KEY numbers now of 37 AND 38.

Stag
check it out

 

[Nolan Dalla]

Thanks for the replies so far. I did get this at 37.5 but posted it here as a 37 since the rain could drive the total down by gametime (I also take some heat at times for posting lines that are accurate on the Friday that I post them, but which often change by gametime -- so I am anticpating a slight drop on the total if the rain comes). With that said, here are my thoughts:

Nolan,
I went through almost this exact line of thinking, but ultimately came to the other conclusion (over). No one in Chicago (or anywhere for that matter) knows how it is that the Bears put up around 20 week after week with no offense, but this now goes back to last season, so I see no reason why we should figure that trend to stop this week.

***I can't argue with the history, but if you look at these wacky plays -- interceptions returns, tipped passes for TDs, and things like that -- those often have come against bad defenses (NOR, DET, BUFF, etc.). I think the flakery is LESS LIKELY on the road against a good defense. Notice that even the mediocre Rams shut down this team on MNF last time they went on the road for MNF.


I see the Dolphins getting ahead early, which will force the Bears to throw more than they want to (though they will obstinately still try to run the ball way too many times). More throws in the rain could lead to some turnovers and easy points.

***Good point. But I also suspect the Dolphins offense could sputter in the 1H with a rusty Fiedler (ala Maddox). If that hapens, then this game almost CERTAINLY goes UNDER. The other possibility is that MIAMI builds a lead then gets conservative. I also see a scenario where that works to the UNDER advantage. But, you are quite right that rain could lead to more fumbles and turnovers and this is a bothersome point.


The real kicker for me is that by the time they reach the 2nd half, the Fins should be comfortably ahead and will try and run clock off. But looking at the Chicago D, possibly without Traylor and Urlacher (and certainly with neither at 100%) I think the Dolphins score a few TDs without even trying.

***I'm not so sure it will be that easy. Miami averages just 23 PPG. I simply cant se Fiedler coming off the bench and putting up big numbers. I dont think Norv Turner is going to let his QB stand in the pocket 35-40 times -- when they have RB williams to carry the load. Why ship by air when you have a Mack Truck ready to roll?


Throw in a late garbage TD for Chicago and I think you're looking at about a 31-10 game here.

***Cant argue. If this game goes OVER, it goes OVER just barely. I can think of many more scenarios where we get a finla score of Maimi 27-3, Miami 24-10, Miami 16-13, Miami 20-13, or perhaps in the case of a really bad downpour a close 17-10 type of game. BUt, you are correct that it could go the other way based on the scenario you describe.


Respect your capping a lot and hate being on the other side from you, but I'm going with the over and laying the points. Hopefully, if you're right and this one goes under it will be because Miami shut out the Bears and I'll get at least a split out of it.

***I like your write up also and your line of thinking. I respect your outlook and it certainly does cause me to question my own judgment. Thanks for playing the role of contrarain.


Nolan







GL

 

[pointspred fred]

I have ONE word for you.......

I have ONE word for you.......

TRACTION!!!

If the field is in any way sloppy tonight, the over is the call. Recievers and RB's will have a huge advantage over both defenses tonight. Skill players who know exactly when they are going to cut on their routes and plays, will always have at least 1/2 a step on their defender. I think lots of points tonight.

Overall team speed will play a big part in this one. So will turnovers, but not so much who has more, but more importantly who turns it over in their own redzone. Surtain and Madison should blanket Chi's WR core. I also see know reason ricky doesnt get a minimum of 2 td's and 110 yards.

Miami -10

over the total of 37

 

[8)ELVIS(8]

nice!

nice!

awesome write up nolan, totally agree . u make it so much better to be on ur side nice homework!!! (week ,in out .) good luck to u:thumb:

 

[Nolan Dalla]

The Scoring Spectrum

The Scoring Spectrum

One thing I have used for many years when forecasting totals is to basically list ALL of the possible scenarios for scoring. In a post here today, there was some give and take on WHAT WILL HAPPEN TONIGHT? ONe poster who I respect speculated that he thought Miami would win 31-10 (which means an OVER).

He could be right.

However, let's list out the possible numbers here, given what might be expected in the game (conventionally speaking):

MIAMI BLOWOUT SCENARIOS:

16-0, 17-0, 20-0, 21-0, 24-0, 27-0, 28-0, 30-0, 31-0, 34-0, 35-0, 37-0, 38-0, 41-0, 42-0 , 16-3, 17-3, 20-3, 21-3, 24-3, 27-3, 28-3, 30-3, 31-3, 34-3, 35-3, 37-3, 38-3, 41-3, 42-3, 16-7, etc.

(CONCLUSION: the majority of these blowout scenarios favro the UNDER)


MIAMI WINS BY 9 to 11 SCENARIO (around the pointspread)

16-6, 16-7 17-7, 20-10, 21-10, 21-9, 23-13, 23-14, 24-13, 24-14, 27-17, 27-16, 30-20, 30-21 (higher scoring game than 50 very unlikely)

(CONCLUSION: these scenarios split about half and half for the OVER and UNDER)


CLOSE TIGHT GAME SCENARIO

14-13, 14-10, 16-13, 16-10, 17-10, 17-13, 17-14, 20-13, 20-14, 20-16, 20-17, 21-13, 21-14, 21-16, 21-17, 24-16, 24-17, 24-20, 24-21

CONCLUSION: most of these scenaios go UNDER the total, assuming there is not a high schoring shootout 45+ points scored)

Given these scenarios, it appears that the mean expectation would be about 34 points. Based on the spread, that means Miami winning about 22-12 (unlikely numerical score). I'd revise that to Miami 21-13.

The point of all this numerology is this: IT IS MUCH MORE LIKLEY THESE TWO TEAMS WILL GO UNDER THE EXPECTED TOTAL BY X plsu points, than OVER THE TOTAL by X plus point. For instance, it is conceivalbe this game could go UNDER by 10 points (lots of scores fit the 27 total) but less likely we see 47 points being scored.

Add one other point and a question: What do the Bears do when they have first and goal at the Miami 8-yard line? With virtually no running game, who will they punch the ball into the end zone? That point alone leans to to suspect a very low total coming from the Bears tonight, barring a disasterous performance by the Dolphins.

Now that I have dug myself into a grave here, I'll probably be eating crow tomorrow. Of course, one could mention the PITT-HOU game yesterday which nullified all the scnearios and shows how unpredicatable this business really is.

-- Nolan Dalla

 

[ussrv]

Great post nolan. thanks for your hard work . A lot of money has pushed the over to 38 one over the key number. Good luck tonight. jacob

 

[djv]

The weather factor must be watched. A wet field can make strange things happen. Monday night the boys should be up on both sides and ready to play some D. That adds to the under line of thinking. But with overs coming from places they should not this year. Or at least when capped that way you feal strong for a under. Has to make you wonder if anyone gives a dam about D.

 

[vchipsliu]

Great write-up Nolan
The only choice for me tonight will be
Teaser MIAMI -3.5 / OVER 31 Big time !!!!!!!!

GL

 

[Topdog]

Nolan

Nolan

Your views are well supported by facts as usual. I'll bet that the guys in the booth tonight pray for a game that has anywhere near this much to debate about.

How much does the coach influence the amount of points scored in a blowout, or the amount scored after the game seems to be well in hand??

I manage a softball team where I fight really hard to always get home team, so that we DO NOT get to bat in the bottom of the inning when leading in the last. This makes game scores appear closer than they could be and hopefully lets other teams preserve dignity and underestimate us in the future during a more important game.

This seems to be a stat to consider in college. Some coaches run up the score, others don't.

Keep it Positive, Topdog

 

[johnnyonthespot]

Guess you could kinda say we were both right

Bottom line is you were on the right side, so nice call Nolan.

 

[djv]

Yes I can only add I did get down in front of that TV and said you will not make this 2 point conversion you SOB. It worked Here again we had ateam playing D and another thinking about it. All this year there has been plenty of that.

 

[Topdog]

Johnnyonthespot

Johnnyonthespot

Nolan,
I went through almost this exact line of thinking, but ultimately came to the other conclusion (over). No one in Chicago (or anywhere for that matter) knows how it is that the Bears put up around 20 week after week with no offense, but this now goes back to last season, so I see no reason why we should figure that trend to stop this week.





Hey Johnny, I couldn't pass up the chance to have a little fun with this thread "Chi/Mia UNDER 37". You're passing up a great career in politics if you're not already there. I hope you teased the total towards the under so you also won, along with Nolan and his followers. You also did a good job eluding to the fact that the Bears will probably not break their pattern of scoring around 20 points, and then predicting them to score 10.

It's a GREAT day in gambling when two people can cap the same game, draw opposite conclusions and both WIN....or at least both be RIGHT.

Keep it Positive, Topdog