CINC -11 v St. Louis

[buddy]

St. Louis has been playing lights out, winning 6 of their L 7 ATS, including beating L'vlle straight up.

Cincy has struggled in 4 of their L 5, but I think there's a good reason our friend, the Linesmaker, is making Cincy a double digit Home Fav here.

Back on 1/15, Cincy as a Road Fav -4' handled St. Louis, 66-56, and I'm looking for an even stronger Cincy performance tonight on the Bearcats Home Court.

CINCY -11

 

[broondog]

Buddy,
You obviously follow the Bearcats a bit, wouldn't yoiu agree their strength is their Defense not their Offense? I think 11 points is alot for them to be giving up.

 

[buddy]

broondog,

I really don't follow one team more than any other...probably should, but my handicapping is more general in nature.

In other words, I ask myself, "do I trust the matchup or the spot?"

In this case, I trust the spot.

I'm an oddball in that I have a lot of respect for the Linesmaker.

I also have a theory about the opening line.

Some think the opening line is set to balance the action, but I believe the opening line is set (not in all matchups, but several ) to either "attract or repel" the bettor.

In this case, with St. Louis playing so well and Cincy struggling, I think the line is set to attract St. Louis money.

I think the Linesmaker is trying to pull a fast one and I'm simply going the other way.

 

[broondog]

Buddy,
I respect your approach, thanks for the explanation and insight!
GL on the game