Cincinnati at South Florida

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Cincinnati at South Florida

#8 Cincinnati (5-0, 1-0 Big East) at #21 South Florida (5-0, 1-0 Big East)
7:45 PM ESPN
Raymond James Stadium (Natural Grass)
Sports.com Line: Cincinnati -2.5, O/U 49.5

ESPN is looking real smart right about now with its Thursday night matchup pitting two of the remaining nine undefeated teams in the NCAA Football Bowl Subdivision. Not many folks would have picked South Florida and Cincinnati to be unscathed at this point in the season but it sure sets up an intriguing matchup in what should be a raucous Raymond James Stadium.

One might have envisioned Cincinnati being perfect through five games, although remember they were a five point dog to Rutgers to start the year, but nobody could have predicted this start for the South Florida Bulls. That?s especially true considering they lost one of their best players when QB Matt Grothe suffered a torn ACL in his left knee in the Bulls' 59-0 blowout victory against Charleston Southern, ending his incredible USF career.

Coach Jim Leavitt plugged in redshirt freshman QB B.J. Daniels under center and the Bulls haven?t missed a beat on offense as the team is third in the league in total offense averaging 413.6 yards a game and are second in rushing (190.8). Individually, Daniels ranks eighth in the conference in rushing (58 ypg) and is seventh in passing (120 ypg), completing 57.1 percent of his attempts. Grothe who?

Daniels favorite target so far has been WR Carlton Mitchell, who leads the team with 21 catches for 377 yards and three touchdowns. Daniels, who hauled in an 85-yard touchdown reception in the win two weeks ago over Syracuse, is close to setting the USF record for receiving yards in just his junior year.

The one red flag for Leavitt?s crew on offense is the kicking game which has stumbled since the Bulls lost their starter, Maikon Bonani, to injury. Since that point Leavitt has tried a couple options and neither has been consistent. So far the kicking game hasn?t cost the Bulls but if this matchup comes down to a fourth quarter kick it could become a major issue.

On defense, the Bulls should look very familiar to the Bearcats, and not just because they play them every year. That?s because USF defensive coordinator Joe Tresey spent the past two seasons in that same role under head coach Brian Kelly at Cincinnati. Kelly fired Tresey following last season's Big East championship and Orange Bowl appearance saying he wanted to take the defense in a ?different direction?.

As the saying goes, one man?s trash is another?s treasure and you can be sure that Leavitt is plenty happy with what Tresey is doing with the Bulls on defense thus far in 2009. South Florida currently ranks fifth in scoring defense, allowing less than 10 points per game and are holding opponents to a league-low 263 yards per game in total defense. USF has allowed opponents only four touchdowns in 13 trips inside their 20-yard line, making them No. 1 in red-zone defense.

The motor behind the USF defense is DE George Selvie who is constantly double and triple teamed to keep him from taking over games. That attention has kept his individual stats down but has allowed the Bulls defense to flourish.

Another key defender for South Florida this Thursday will be FS Nate Allen who is coming off a game against Syracuse in which he had two interceptions. Allen will try to slow down a Cincy passing game that is throwing for a Big East-high 298.4 yards a game. It would be very helpful if Selvie and crew can get some pressure on Cincy QB Tony Pike but he Bearcats have only given up three sacks in five games.

Pike will no doubt look early and often to WR Mardy Gilyard who has 38 receptions for 517 yards and seven touchdowns in just five games. The senior receiver is also a special teams terror, averaging 21.7 yards on kick returns.

Working a spread offense mainly out of the shotgun, Pike usually takes to the air but the Bearcats can run the ball with RB Jacob Ramsey, who torched Miami, Ohio for 103 yards and three touchdowns. Behind Pike and company Cincinnati ranks fourth nationally in scoring offense.

On defense, new Cincinnati coordinator Bob Diaco has the Bearcats running a 3-4 scheme and LB J.K. Schaffer has become a key contributor in just his sophomore season.

Cincy leads the all-time series 4-2 but the Bulls are 2-1 at home against the Bearcats. That said, the last time Cincy travelled to Tampa (2007), the Bearcats managed to pull out a victory, 38-33. Cincinnati also won last year's meeting, 24-10, at Nippert Stadium.

:toast:
 

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South Florida Bulls (2-0) (0-0 H) vs Cincinnati Bearcats (1-0) (1-0 A)

South Florida Bulls (2-0) (0-0 H) vs Cincinnati Bearcats (1-0) (1-0 A)

South Florida Bulls (2-0) (0-0 H) vs Cincinnati Bearcats (1-0) (1-0 A)

Game Time: 7:45 p.m. EDT Thursday, October 15

Stadium: Raymond James Stadium Surface: Grass




RECORD ANALYSIS
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
Cincinnati Bearcats HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL

Year-to-Date 2 - 0 3 - 0 5 - 0 0 - 1 2 - 1 2 - 2 0 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 3
Last 5 games 2 - 0 3 - 0 5 - 0 0 - 1 2 - 1 2 - 2 0 - 1 1 - 2 1 - 3
YTD vs. Conf. 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0
STRAIGHT-UP VS. SPREAD OVER/UNDER
South Florida Bulls HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL HOME AWAY TOTAL
Year-to-Date 2 - 0 3 - 0 5 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 1 - 1 1 - 1
Last 5 games 2 - 0 3 - 0 5 - 0 0 - 0 2 - 1 2 - 1 0 - 0 1 - 1 1 - 1
YTD vs. Conf. 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0 0 - 0 1 - 0 1 - 0
AWAY VS. SPREAD HOME VS. SPREAD
Year-to-Date FAV DOG GRASS TURF FAV DOG GRASS TURF
Cincinnati Bearcats 1 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 1 1 - 0 0 - 1 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 1
South Florida Bulls 1 - 1 1 - 0 1 - 1 1 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0 0 - 0



TEAM LOGS/SCHEDULE:
( * = overtime)

Cincinnati Bearcats
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/07/09 Mon @RUT 47 - 15 W +6.5 +4.5 W 36.5 49 47.5 O +-14.5 G
09/12/09 Sat SEM 70 - 3 W 0 0 W 67 0 0 O +-73.0 T
09/19/09 Sat @ORST 28 - 18 W +3.5 -1.5 W 8.5 54 57 U -11.0 T
09/26/09 Sat FRE 28 - 20 W -14 -17 L -9 59 63 U -15.0 T
10/03/09 Sat @MIAOH 37 - 13 W -26 -29 L -5 56 59 U -9.0 G


South Florida Bulls
LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY OPP SCORE SU OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
09/05/09 Sat WOF 40 - 7 W 0 0 W 33 0 0 O +-47.0 T
09/12/09 Sat @WKTY 35 - 13 W -24.5 -26 L -4 0 0 O +-48.0 G
09/19/09 Sat CHARSC 59 - 0 W 0 0 W 59 0 0 O +-59.0 T
09/26/09 Sat @FLST 17 - 7 W +12 +14 W 24 48 50.5 U -26.5 G
10/03/09 Sat @SYR 34 - 20 W -9 -7.5 W 6.5 47 47.5 O +- 6.5 T



PREVIOUS MEETINGS:

LINE OVER/UNDER
DATE DAY VIS SC HOM SC OPEN CLOSE ATS &
MARGIN OPEN CLOSE O/U &
MARGIN G/T
10/22/06 Sun SFLA 6 CIN 23 0.0 +1 CIN +18 41.0 42.5 U -13.5 T
11/03/07 Sat CIN 38 SFLA 33 -7.5 -5.0 SFLA --10 48.0 50.0 O +-21 T
10/30/08 Thu SFLA 10 CIN 24 +3.5 +2.5 CIN +16.5 50.0 49.0 U -15 T




STATISTICAL AVERAGES:


AWAY/HOME RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
CIN (off) 37.3 22 25 136 5.4 42 28 0.7 333 7.9 469 1.0 0.0
SFLA (def) 3.5 11 34 115 3.4 21 10 0.5 85 4.0 200 0.5 1.5
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
CIN (def) 15.3 22 35 61 1.7 43 28 0.7 256 6.0 317 2.0 0.0
SFLA (off) 49.5 24 39 211 5.4 26 21 0.8 242 9.3 453 0.5 0.5
ALL GAMES RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
CIN (off) 42.0 21 27 138 5.1 38 25 0.7 330 8.7 468 0.6 0.0
SFLA (def) 9.4 16 32 106 3.3 30 16 0.5 157 5.2 263 1.4 1.8
RUSHING PASSING TOT TURNOVERS
PTS FD AT YDS AVG AT CO PCT YDS AVG YDS INT FUM
CIN (def) 13.8 20 39 106 2.7 37 23 0.6 209 5.6 315 2.0 0.2
SFLA (off) 37.0 20 40 190 4.8 23 15 0.7 223 9.7 413 0.8 1.0



SCORING AVERAGES:

Cincinnati Bearcats (away) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 6.7 18.3 25 4.7 7.7 0.0 12.4
POINTS ALLOWED 4.3 3.0 7.3 4.3 3.7 0.0 8



South Florida Bulls (home) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 14.0 11.5 25.5 12.0 12.0 0.0 24
POINTS ALLOWED 3.5 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0



Cincinnati Bearcats (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 11.0 18.0 29 5.6 7.4 0.0 13
POINTS ALLOWED 3.8 4.6 8.4 2.6 2.8 0.0 5.4



South Florida Bulls (all) Q1 Q2 H1 Q3 Q4 OT H2+OT
POINTS FOR 8.4 10.2 18.6 10.2 8.2 0.0 18.4
POINTS ALLOWED 2.6 2.6 5.2 1.4 2.8 0.0 4.2



VALUE INDEX COMPARISON TO LAS VEGAS LINE:

LV POINTSPREAD VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING LINE EDGE
Cincinnati Bearcats 43
South Florida Bulls 53 -14.0 12.5
LV OVER/UNDER VALUE INDEX VALUE INDEX
OPEN CURRENT RATING EDGE
OVER/UNDER 47.5 UNKNOWN
 

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NCAA FOOTBALL WEATHER
Matchup Conditions Game Time Temp Heat Index
CINCINNATI
S FLORIDA
Thu 7:45 p.m. ET PARTLY CLOUDY, 30% CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS EARLY. WEST WIND 5-10 79 N/A%
Humid
 

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Cincinnati Bearcats at South Florida Bulls (+2.5, 49)

Line movement

The line movement has been heavy, as Cincinnati opened as a slight underdog but it has been bet in the other direction as South Florida is now getting a field goal in some places.

The total has moved up slightly as is the case with most Thursday night games. It likely has not peaked yet but that could all depend on the weather.

Injuries

The big injury to speak of is that South Florida will be without quarterback Matt Grothe. This will be the third game that B.J. Daniels has started in his place.

Weather

There will be a chance of a thunderstorm with a high in the low 80?s.

Inside info

South Florida defensive coordinator Joe Tresey had the same role at Cincinnati the past two seasons but was fired after last year, despite his team having the 31st ranked overall defense and 25th ranked scoring defense. His defense was a big part of Cincinnati's last two wins against South Florida.

The big reason he was let go was that Bearcats head coach Brian Kelly caught wind that Tresey was interviewing at Miami. Tresey then decided to take the position with the Bulls in what can be largely considered a payback situation.

There has been no public ill will between Kelly and Tresey but the latter knows there might be an edge.

?The nice thing is I am familiar with personnel. I am familiar with some of the things they do, there's no question,? said Tresey.

Senior revenge

This is actually a huge revenge game for South Florida. Cincinnati has won the last three meetings and no team has ever beaten the Bulls four years in a row. That means the seniors want no part of another loss to the Bearcats.

?It is kind of personal,? defensive end George Selvie said. ?I know we've beaten Cincinnati, but I've never had a chance to actually beat Cincinnati myself. This is my senior year, and I want to go out with a win. It's a real big game for me, and I want to win this one.?

Revenge is always easier said than done but when triple revenge comes into play, it tends to rally the troops even more.

Big East big bust?

The winner of this game will join West Virginia and Pittsburgh as the remaining undefeated teams in Big East action. Most importantly, the winner will remain as the only undefeated team overall and will be the only likely team that will have a chance at the BCS Championship.

Even if South Florida or Cincinnati does in fact run the table and finish undefeated, it is not likely to get a shot in the championship game simply because the conference is considered too weak. People tend to forget that West Virginia was a win away from playing in the BCS Championship just two years ago.

According to Jeff Sagarin, who provides power rankings to many different media outlets, the Big East Conference is actually the fourth ranked conference in the country, ranking ahead of the Big 12 and Big Ten. That certainly doesn?t seem like much of a bust.

Strength against strength

Cincinnati enters with the fourth-ranked scoring offense in the nation, averaging 42.0 ppg while South Florida features the fifth ranked scoring defense, allowing just 9.4 ppg. The Bearcats are also sixth in passing offense while the Bulls are ninth in passing defense.

Turnovers could play a very big role in this game as we will have two teams who are very advantageous with taking care of the ball.

Cincinnati is third in the country in turnover margin at +1.6 per game while South Florida is eighth at +1.4 per game. The weather could have something to do with the results of this angle on Thursday, so that is something that should be looked at.

Bottom line

Cincinnati has the edge when each of these teams play against the better teams. It is 15-6-1 ATS in its last 22 games against a team with a winning record, while the Bulls are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games against a team with a winning record.

However, the Bulls are 8-3 ATS at home against Big East foes over the last three years.

The rushing results from both teams could call for a low scoring game as Cincinnati is 12-3 to the ?Under? in its last 15 games after outrushing its last opponent by 125 or more yards while South Florida is 17-3 to the ?Under? in its last 20 games against teams that are allowing 120 ypg on the ground.

The Bearcats have covered five straight meetings in the series.
 

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Preview:
Cincinnati at South Florida
When: 7:30 PM ET, Thursday, October 15, 2009
Where: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida


Quick Hits

Overall Team Offense

The South Florida Bulls are ranked 34 on offense, averaging 413.6 yards per game.

The Bulls are averaging 190.8 yards rushing and 222.8 yards passing so far this season.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are ranked 11 on offense, averaging 468.2 yards per game.

The Bearcats are averaging 138.6 yards rushing and 329.6 yards passing so far this season.

Home and Away

The South Florida Bulls are 2-0 at home this season, 1-0 against conference opponents and 4-0 against non-conference opponents.

At home the Bulls are averaging 49.5 scoring, and holding teams to 3.5 points scored on defense.

The Cincinnati Bearcats are 3-0 while on the road this season, 1-0 against conference opponents and 4-0 against non-conference opponents.

On the road, the Bearcats are averaging 37.3 scoring, and holding teams to 15.3 points scored on defense.
 

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Trends - No. 9 Cincinnati at No. 21 South Florida

Trends - No. 9 Cincinnati at No. 21 South Florida

Trends - No. 9 Cincinnati at No. 21 South Florida

ATS Trends

Cincinnati

Bearcats are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Bearcats are 15-6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Bearcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Thursday games.
Bearcats are 27-11-1 ATS in their last 39 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bearcats are 16-7 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Bearcats are 11-5-1 ATS in their last 17 games following a bye week.
Bearcats are 13-6 ATS in their last 19 games on grass.
Bearcats are 7-15-1 ATS in their last 23 games as a road favorite.
Bearcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Bearcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite.
Bearcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
Bearcats are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Bearcats are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.


South Florida

Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog.
Bulls are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Bulls are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
Bulls are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a bye week.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Bulls are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 home games.
Bulls are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games in October.
Bulls are 3-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.


OU Trends

Cincinnati

Over is 4-0 in Bearcats last 4 games following a bye week.
Under is 8-0 in Bearcats last 8 Thursday games.
Under is 7-1-1 in Bearcats last 9 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Under is 5-1 in Bearcats last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 13-3-1 in Bearcats last 17 games in October.
Under is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Over is 8-2-1 in Bearcats last 11 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 games as a favorite.
Over is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 conference games.
Under is 4-1 in Bearcats last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 9-3-1 in Bearcats last 13 games on grass.
Under is 5-2 in Bearcats last 7 games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Under is 5-2-1 in Bearcats last 8 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Over is 5-2 in Bearcats last 7 road games.


South Florida

Under is 6-0 in Bulls last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 7-1 in Bulls last 8 games as an underdog.
Under is 5-1 in Bulls last 6 games following a ATS win.
Under is 4-1 in Bulls last 5 games as a home underdog.
Over is 8-3 in Bulls last 11 home games.
Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Under is 5-2 in Bulls last 7 games overall.
Over is 7-3 in Bulls last 10 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.


Head to Head

Bearcats are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
 

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Big East programs with something to prove

Big East programs with something to prove

Big East programs with something to prove

It won?t be long before some big-time college football program is going to be ready to cough up the cash to have the services coach Brian Kelly. Since taking over at Cincinnati, Kelly is 27-6 (5-0 in 2009) and 17-12-1 against the spread. Last year?s Big East title and appearance in the Orange Bowl has the Queen City fired up about something besides college hoops.

A few nay-sayers will complain that the Bearcats (3-2 ATS) have not played a Miami Hurricanes schedule to this point, however how many teams would be undefeated today if they had ONE returning defensive starter? Quarterback Tony Pike is leading a sensational offense averaging 329.8 yards passing, often looking towards playmaker Mardy Gilyard. If teams try to double Gilyard, that has opened up chances for running back Jacob Ramsey to slice and dice the opposition. Cincy is 6-0 ATS when playing against a team with a win percentage of 75 percent or higher over the last three seasons.

South Florida (5-0, 2-1 ATS) was on the edges of Big East title conversations coming into the season, after not meeting expectations a year ago. When senior quarterback Matt Grothe went down to injury, what supporters they had bailed faster than General Motors did on Saturn.

However, redshirt freshman B.J. Daniels has stepped in under center and delivered big plays and wins against Florida State and Syracuse and all the sudden, more seats are being added to the Bulls bandwagon. They are 5-1 ATS in last six lined games.

On defense, watch for defensive tackle George Selvie and safety Nate Allen, two outstanding talents. This gruesome twosome will have to get after Pike and their defense ranks fifth in scoring defense (9.4) and 10th in total yards allowed (263.0) nationally. They have forced 16 turnovers on the season.

?We'd be concerned if our defense was out there struggling, but as you can see the last two weeks, they've bowed up when they needed to and they're continuing to make plays," said Pike. "On offense, we're going to come out when we get the possessions and make the most out of it."

Cincy opened as 1.5-point favorites and were swiftly moved to -2.5 by the wagering public at Bookmaker.com, with total of 49.5. Cincinnati ranks third in the country in scoring with 43.2 points per game, with Pike throwing a TD pass in 15 consecutive games. The Bearcats are 15-6-1 ATS against teams with winnings records. South Florida has to contain the Cincinnati offense and hope to hit a few big plays to grab the momentum. The Bulls are only 3-9 ATS against winning teams in last dozen tries.

This could be head-buster and a lower scoring than it appears. USF is 6-0 UNDER when playing against a team with a winning record and the Bearcats are 12-3 UNDER when the line is +3 to -3.

These are two programs that will showcase their considerable talents to a national cable audience and South Florida is 8-3 ATS at home against Big East competition the last three years. One of those losses has been against Cincinnati, whom they are 1-4 and 0-5 against the spread.

ESPN has this Big East showcase at 7:45 Eastern.
 

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8) Cincinnati (5-0) at (21) South Florida (5-0)

8) Cincinnati (5-0) at (21) South Florida (5-0)

8) Cincinnati (5-0) at (21) South Florida (5-0)



Thursday, October 15th, 7:30 p.m. (et)


GAME NOTES: The Big East gets the national spotlight on Thursday, as top-25 foes collide in the Sunshine State, when the eighth-ranked Cincinnati Bearcats call on the 21st-ranked South Florida Bulls.

Brian Kelly has been the Big East Coach of the Year the last two seasons and in his third full season at Cincinnati, it is safe to say that he has the defending Big East champions heading in the right direction. The Bearcats are a perfect 5-0 on the year and are 1-0 in Big East play, opening the 2009 campaign with a 47-15 rout of Rutgers. More recently, the team finished up a flawless non-league slate with a 37-13 win at Miami-Ohio back on October 3rd.

Jim Leavitt's Bulls have not played the caliber of opponent that Cincinnati has faced, but have still run the table, with the biggest victory coming at the end of September against a slumping Florida State team (17-7). USF has also been idle since October 3rd and comes into this game after opening Big East action with a 34-20 victory over Syracuse.

Cincinnati holds a 4-2 edge in the all-time series with USF, thanks to wins in each of the last three meetings.

The Bearcats enter this contest with one of the most prolific offenses in the nation, ranking fourth in the country in scoring at 42.0 ppg. The offense is fueled by a strong passing attack (329.8 ypg) thanks to the play of signal- caller Tony Pike. The 6-6 senior has emerged as a Heisman candidate this year, completing a hefty 66.7 percent of his passes, for 1,493 yards and 13 TDs, with just three interceptions. Wideout Mardy Gilyard is one of the nation's most productive receivers to this point, hauling in 38 balls, for 517 yards and seven TDs in just five games.

The ground game takes a backseat to the passing attack, but still does enough to keep defenses honest, coming in at just over 138 yards per game. Jacob Ramsey (7.7 ypc, three TDs) and Isaiah Pead (5.8 ypc, three TDs) don't get many carries, but make the most of the ones they do get.

The Cincinnati defense has played well for the most part this year and the numbers certainly reflect that. The Bearcats are allowing just 314.4 yards of total offense, leading to 13.8 ppg. A tremendous pass rush (21 sacks), coupled with opportunistic play in the secondary (10 INTs) has this Bearcat stop unit thriving.

The pass rush is led by the play of senior Alex Daniels (28 tackles, 6.5 TFLs, 5.5 sacks) and freshman Walter Stewart (17 tackles, 5.0 TFLs, 4.0 sacks) coming off the edges. Linebackers Andre Revels (team-high 41 tackles), JK Schaffer (31 tackles, team-high three INTs) and Demetrius Jones (40 tackles, 4.0 TFLs, one INT) have been stellar in the middle of the defense. The play in the secondary is highlighted by senior DB Aaron Webster (27 tackles, two INTs).

B.J. Daniels has stepped in and filled the void left by the injury to steady QB Matt Grothe and has done a decent job under center, as he has thrown for 602 yards and six TDs, while pacing the team in rushing (58.2 ypg) and three more scores. Daniels is feeling more and more comfortable in his new role and it certainly helps to have a receiving outlet like Carlton Mitchell on the outside. The WR leads the team with 21 receptions, for 377 yards and three TDs.

Coach Kelly is aware of the challenge that Daniels presents for his defense.

"He's an exciting player with big play potential. He's done a nice job of moving the ball down the field vertically. A different quarterback than Matt Grothe, but certainly one that has really charged their offense up."

The offense isn't quite as explosive as Cincinnati's, but is very balanced with 190.8 ypg coming on the ground and an additional 222.8 through the air.

The Bulls are led by one of the nation's top defensive units, leading the nation in scoring defense (9.4 ppg) and ranking fourth nationally in total defense (263.0 ypg). The pass defense has been particularly stingy (158.0 ypg).

The pass rush has generated 13 sacks on the season, but with former All- American George Selvie (20 tackles, 2.0 sacks) on the defensive front, opposing offenses have to keep an eye on him. Selvie has received pass rush help from both DT Craig Marshall (three sacks) and DE Jason Pierre-Paul (team- high 6.5 TFLs, two sacks). Senior free safety Nate Allen has been terrific in the secondary and currently leads the team in tackles (29), while registering a pair of interceptions, one fumble recovery and one forced fumble.

Coach Kelly is excited for this marquee matchup in the Big East.

'Its going to be a fun game. Two ranked teams both undefeated. We are on the road in what should be a great atmosphere and a great challenge for our football team."

Although the Bulls are strong defensively, the competition this season hasn't exactly been top-notch. That will change this weekend as Cincinnati represents a team that can win on either side of the football.

Predicted Outcome: Cincinnati 27, South Florida 20
 

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College Football Matchup - (8) Cincinnati at (21) South Florida

College Football Matchup - (8) Cincinnati at (21) South Florida

College Football Matchup - (8) Cincinnati at (21) South Florida

(8) Cincinnati Bearcats (5-0) at (21) South Florida Bulls (5-0)
Date: Thursday, October 15th
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. (et)
Site: Raymond James Stadium (65,857) -- Tampa, Florida
Surface: Bermuda Grass
Home Record: Cincinnati 2-0; South Florida 2-0
Away Record: Cincinnati 3-0; South Florida 3-0
Conference Record: Cincinnati 1-0; South Florida 1-0
Current Road Win/Loss Streak: Cincinnati 6W
Current Home Win/Loss Streak: South Florida 3W
Television: ESPN
Announcers: Chris Fowler, Craig James, Jesse Palmer and Erin Andrews
All-Time Series: Cincinnati (4-2)
Last Meeting: October 30, 2008 (Cincinnati, 24-10 at Cincinnati)
Series Streak: Cincinnati has won the last three meetings.

Season Schedule/Results
Cincinnati Bearcats
Sep 7 - W at Rutgers, 47-15
Sep 12 - W vs. SE Missouri St, 70-3
Sep 19 - W at Oregon State, 28-18
Sep 26 - W vs. Fresno State, 28-20
Oct 3 - W at Miami-Ohio, 37-13
Oct 10 - Open
Oct 15 - at So Florida, 7:30 PM
Oct 24 - vs. Louisville, 3:30 PM
Oct 31 - at Syracuse, TBA
Nov 7 - vs. Connecticut, TBA
Nov 13 - vs. West Virginia, 8:00 PM
Nov 21 - Open
Nov 28 - vs. Illinois, TBA
Dec 5 - at Pittsburgh, TBA
South Florida Bulls
Sep 5 - W vs. Wofford, 40-7
Sep 12 - W at Western Ky, 35-13
Sep 19 - W vs. Char Southern, 59-0
Sep 26 - W at Florida State, 17-7
Oct 3 - W at Syracuse, 34-20
Oct 10 - Open
Oct 15 - vs. Cincinnati, 7:30 PM
Oct 24 - at Pittsburgh, 12:00 PM
Oct 30 - vs. West Virginia, 8:00 PM
Nov 7 - Open
Nov 12 - at Rutgers, 7:30 PM
Nov 21 - vs. Louisville, TBA
Nov 28 - vs. Miami-Florida, TBA
Dec 5 - at Connecticut, TBA
 

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LOKI
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Cincinnati (5-0) at South Florida (5-0),7:30 EST, ESPN, Thursday, October 15

Cincinnati (5-0) at South Florida (5-0),7:30 EST, ESPN, Thursday, October 15

Cincinnati (5-0) at South Florida (5-0),7:30 EST, ESPN, Thursday, October 15

Why to watch: You might have to go back to the days when Miami and Virginia Tech were in the league to find a bigger Big East game than the one being staged in Tampa Thursday night. Cincinnati and South Florida are both unbeaten through five weeks, entering the showdown ranked and eager to take early control of the conference race. Although the Bearcats are the defending champs, few expected a team gutted by graduations to be even better than a year ago. They are. And the Bulls have been equally difficult to rationalize. Of all times to stun Florida State in Tallahassee, they did it a week after losing heart-and-soul QB Matt Grothe to a season-ending knee injury. Go figure. Whoever leaves Raymond James Stadium 6-0 will be labeled a fringe national championship contender for as long as it remains perfect.

Why Cincinnati might win: While the Tony Pike-to-Mardy Gilyard hook-up will be a huge concern for South Florida, solving the Bearcat D might be even tougher. With 10 new starters, Cincinnati has exceeded all expectations, allowing just 13 points a game and leading the nation in tackles for loss. The contributions aren?t limited to just a few players, though DE Alex Daniels and DT Derek Wolfe have been particularly ornery in recent weeks. While redshirt freshman B.J. Daniels has been terrific in Grothe?s absence, he?s still surrounded by an inconsistent ground game and an average offensive line. When the Bulls have the ball, the edge at the line of scrimmage goes to the Bearcats.

Why South Florida might win: The defensive talent has always been there for the Bulls, but now the production is finally matching it. Blessed with speed everywhere, South Florida has given up just 47 points all season, ranking No. 5 nationally in scoring defense. This is easily Pike?s biggest challenge of the year, trying to avoid the rush of linemen George Selvie, Terrell McClain, and Jason Pierre-Paul, while not getting robbed by CB Jerome Murphy and FS Nate Allen. No one in the league has more takeaways than USF. It?d be foolish to discount the importance of the home crowd, which is going to be electric for one of the biggest games in school history.

Who to watch: Gilyard has a most unique story. Lightly-recruited and, for a time, homeless, he left the state of Florida to become the king of the Queen City. One of the truly dynamic athletes in the country, he returns to the Sunshine State looking to make a statement on offense and special teams. South Florida is one of the few teams in the country that can match his burst, and the duel with Murphy will be sensational.
What will happen: In a huge game, take the team with the better combination of quarterback and head coach. In both cases, the edge goes to Cincinnati. Jim Leavitt is an icon, but give Brian Kelly almost two weeks to prepare and he?ll find the soft zones in the South Florida defense. While it certainly won?t be easy, the Bearcats are playing like a team on a mission, especially now that the defense is no longer a question mark. Pike will outplay Daniels, tossing a pair of touchdown passes and beefing up his resume for postseason individual honors.

CFN Prediction: Cincinnati 26 ? South Florida 21 ... Line: USF -3
 

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LOKI
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DUNKEL INDEX

DUNKEL INDEX

NCAA Football Game Picks
Cincinnati at South Florida
The Bulls look to take advantage of a Cincinnati team that is 7-15-1 ATS in its last 23 games as a road favorite. South Florida is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Bulls favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+3). Here are all of this week's games.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15
Time Posted: 8:00 p.m. EST (10/13)
Game 105-106: Cincinnati at South Florida
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 97.788; South Florida 103.472
Dunkel Line: South Florida by 5 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3; 49
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+3); Over
 

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Brian Kelly?s Bearcats are 5-0 on the season straight-up (SU) and 3-2 against the spread (ATS). They went to the Orange Bowl last year at 11-2 SU, but brought only eight starters back, seven on offense.



One of those starters was quarterback Tony Pike. He leads a passing attack that?s 6th in the nation at 329.6 YPG. Pike is very dangerous in the spread attack due to his quick decisions and accuracy.

Pike was completing over 70% of his passes before his last game at Miami of Ohio two weeks ago. He completed 55% of his throws in that game and had one of his three interceptions on the year. Cincinnati won 37-13, but failed to cover the huge 29 point spread.



Cincinnati has several big play receivers, but they could have trouble against this South Florida secondary that leads the nation?s 9th ranked pass defense.



South Florida needs to defend home turf



South Florida has moved up to No. 21 in the rankings with their biggest win coming at Florida State, 17-7. This game starts a much tougher schedule and the Bulls need to defend their home turf early in conference play.



Quarterback BJ Daniels has stepped in for Matt Grothe after the latter suffered a season-ending injury. Daniels is a dual threat just like Grothe and the redshirt freshman leads the team in both passing and rushing.



Cincinnati?s defense has been more than respectable given their tremendous turnover. They have held every team to 20 points or less. Cincy also held South Florida to 10 points or less in two of the last three years.



That won?t happen again, especially playing on the road. South Florida can pull off the small home upset if its defense rises to the occasion.



Important Betting Trends



Cincinnati is 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings between the teams

Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last six conference games

Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games as a favorite



South Florida is 4-1 ATS in its last five games as a home underdog



The Under is 8-0 in Cincinnati?s last eight Thursday games
 
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