Cincinnati Preview

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Today at 12:15 on CBS, the 6 seed Cincinnati Bearcats tip off day 2 of the NCAA tournament against the 11 seed Texas Longhorns. Both teams are at large selections. The Bearcats are coming in off a big run in the Big East Tournament, going all the way to the conference title game. Texas won their first round game in the Big 12 tournament, but fell to eventual winner Missouri in the quarterfinals. Cincinnati hadn't been to back to back NCAA tournament games since the 2004 and 2005 seasons. Just like last year, the Bearcats and Longhorns are in the same region. Just like last year, the Bearcats are a 6 seed. Just like last year, the Bearcats are playing a Big 12 school. Just like last year, the 3 seed in the region has been pegged as a Final Four contender. Just like last year, I believe this team can make a run if they handle their business. Handling their business is something UC has done great down the stretch.





Record: 24-10
Coach: Mick Cronin 111-87
Vs Texas: 1-0
Neutral: 3-1
NCAA Tournament Record: 41-24
Last Trip: 6 seed: Beat 11 Missouri, Lost 3 Connecticut

G: Sean Kilpatrick - The sophomore guard plays 34 minutes a game with 14.3 points. He used 20.8% of the UC possessions with an offensive rating of 114.8. Kilpatrick hit 42.3% from the field. He was 1st in the Big East in 3s made and attempted, going 171-404, 36.8%. That ranked 4th in the BE. Kilpatrick was a good foul shooter, 74%, but got there at a 20.2 rate (20.2 attempts per 100 FG attempts). Kilpatrick got 51.7% of his points off 3s, tops in the BE. He pulled in 4.6 rebounds a game. He specialized on the defensive side by getting 10.8% of all defensive rebounds. Kilpatrick had 70 assists to 51 turnovers for a 1.4 assist/turnover ratio. He had 45 steals, 18th in the BE. One of the biggest keys for the Bearcats is to get SK going. He's been very cold lately.

G: Dion Dixon - My best friend played 34 minutes a game with 13.1 points. Dixon used 22.9% of the UC possessions with a 102.3 offensive rating. Dixon was 37% from the field. That was hampered by 26.8% 3 point shooting. He took the 11th most attempts in the BE to boot. Dixon hit 69.5% of his free throws, which was down from 76%. That's a big part of why his scoring didn't improve as much. Dixon pulled in 3.5 boards a game. He got 5.7% of the offensive and defensive boards. He had 73 assists to 59 turnovers for a 1.2 A/T ratio. Dixon was 8th in the BE with 56 steals. His steal pct of 3 ranked 17th. Dixon blocked a career best 16 shots. He committed the fewest fouls of his career. The biggest key for Dixon in the tournament is reigning it in. When he tries to do too much, UC suffers. When he goes with the flow, the machine rolls.

G: Cashmere Wright - The junior point guard played 31 minutes a game with 10.9 points. Wright used 22% of the UC possessions with a 105.3 offensive rating. He was 41% from the field, a little disappointing, but continues to get better from 3. He hit a career best 37.2%. Wright only got to the foul line 57 times. He made 65%. Wright upped his rebounding to 3.7 boards a game. He pulled in 10.7% of the defensive rebounds. Wright was 8th in the BE with 155 assists. He had 77 turnovers for a A/T ratio of 2, 9th. Wright was one of the best players in the nation at getting steals. He had 69, 23rd NCAA/4th BE. his 2 a game were 37/9 and his steal pct of 4 was 42/6. Wright is one of, if not the, most important Bearcats. He needs to do a better job of getting the offense rolling than he did against Louisville. More of the Syracuse Cash, less of the Louisville Cash. Except score like he did against Louisville.

G: JaQuon Parker - Parker plays 26 minutes a game with 9.2 points. He uses 19% of the Cincinnati possessions with a 110.7 offensive rating. Parker hit 42.4% from the field. He hit an even 40% from 3. Parker was an average foul shooter at 68%. Parker pulled in 5.4 boards a game. He got 7.1% of the offensive boards and 16.4% of the defensive. Parker had 29 assists, that seems low, to 25 turnovers for a 1.2 A/T ratio. Park had 16 steals, more than his first 2 years combined. As you can see, Parker doesn't stand out by the stats. He does the little things. He sets the screen, he gets the rebound, he guards the post. He's the glue holding the team together. I love how he's confident taking a big up top and beating him off the dribble. If he can do that against UT, he could have a nice game.

C: Yancy Gates - The senior played 32 minutes a game with 12.4 points. Gates used 21.4% of the UC possessions with a 108.2 offensive rating. Gates hit a career low 47% from the field. He hit a career best 60% from the foul line to make up for it a little bit. Gates was one of the best rebounders in the BE. He was 3rd in rebounds per game at 9.2. His 3.4 offensive rebounds ranked 24/5. He got 11.4% of the offensive boards, which ranked 12th. Gates was 6th in the BE in defensive boards per game at 5.8 and 4th by getting 20.9%. Yancy had 21 assists to 30 turnovers. He had 19 steals. He blocked 24 shots. He was whistled for 2.5 fouls a game. Gates has played the best games of his career when the spotlight has been brightest. Look at the Georgetown and Syracuse games. If he didn't run out of gas against Louisville, maybe the story could have been different. I hope he has a big tournament to go out on.
Bench: Justin Jackson - Jackson plays 22 minutes a game with 5.1 points per. He uses 16.8% of the Bearcat possessions with a 97 offensive rating. He hit 51% from the field, slightly down from last year. He was 33-61 from the foul line, 54%. A marked improvement. Jackson pulled in 4.3 rebounds a game. He got 9.9% of the offensive boards, 19th in the BE and 12.6% of the defensive boards. That's disappointing. He had 38 assists to 50 turnovers. Jackson was a defensive dynamo. He had 32 steals. He blocked 55 shots, 4th in the BE. His 1.6 a game was 5. His 7.9 block pct was also 5th. Jackson was 4th in fouls. He fouled out 6 times. I don't think UC needs Jackson to score, they need the defense Jackson brings. That means avoiding foul trouble.

Ge'Lawn Guyn - The freshman is playing 11 minutes a game with 2.5 points. He used 15.2% of the UC possessions with a 93.6 offensive rating. That's bad. He was 40% from the field. He made a lot of 2s because he was just 9-33, 27% from 3. Guyn hit 9-14, 64% at the foul line. Guyn had 26 boards, less than 1 per game. He had 19 assists to 17 turnovers. Guyn did have 16 steals. He plays tough defense on opposing ball handlers. He doesn't do much else.

Cheikh Mbodj - The junior big is playing 10 minutes a game with 1.8 points. That's not close to true anymore, but those are the averages. He uses 13.8% of possessions with a 95.3 offensive rating. He hit just 19-52 from the field. That's 36%. Many were layups. He was 7-18 at the foul line, 39%. 13 pulled in 2.2 boards a game. He got 11.8% of the offensive boards and 13.1% of the defensive. He blocked 18 shots.

Jermaine Sanders - Sorry man, you aren't playing.

Jeremiah Davis - The same goes for you.

Alex Eppensteiner - I hope you get to play because it's a blowout.


=========================





Record: 20-13
Coach: Rick Barnes 333-130
Neutral: 1-3
NCAA Tournament Record: 33-31
Last Trip: 4 seed: Beat 13 Oakland, lost 5 seed Arizona

G: J'Covan Brown - The junior guard plays 35 minutes a game with 20.1 points. That was tops in the Big 12 and 16th in the nation. Brown uses 28.2% of possessions witha 114.2 offensive rating. He is a pretty good shooter. He attempted the 8th most FGs in the nation, 520, making 217 for a 41.7%. He was 77-210 from 3, 36.7%. That was 8th in the B12. Brown, like most great scorers, is a great foul shooter. He hit 153-178, 86%. He's gone off for 30+ four times with a season high of 35. Brown isn't a threat to rebound, 3.3 a game. He chipped in 8% of the defensive rebounds. He had 124 assists to 87 turnovers for a 1.4 assist/turnover ratio. That ranked 17th in the B12. Brown pulled off 41 steals. He doesn't foul much. The Bearcats weakness on defense has been guarding exceptional guards. Well, here is an exceptional guard.

G: Myck Kabongo - The freshman played 31 minutes a game with 9.8 points per. He used 22.3% of the Longhorn possessions with a 100.6 offensive rating. He was a decent shooter at 40%. He hit 25-75 from 3 for an even 33%. Kabongo gets to the line a lot, 74.2 rate, but is an average foul shooter at 68%. He got 35% of his points at the stripe. Something to watch for. Myck pulled in 3 boards a game, 9.1% of the defensive rebounds. He had 174 assists, 31st/4th, to 100 turnovers for a 1.7 assist turnover ratio. That ranked 11th in the B12. Kabongo had 40 steals. He also doesn't foul a lot, but has fouled out once. He had 2 double doubles, points and assists, and scored a season high 22 against Oklahoma State.

G: Julien Lewis - Another freshman guard, Lewis played 25 minutes a game with 7.5 points. He used 18.1% of the UT possessions with a 93.6 offensive rating. That's bad. He was just 35% from the field, 32% from 3. Neither number very impressive. Lewis only took 29 free throws, making 22. He averaged 3.6 rebounds a game. He pulled in 11.2% of the defensive rebounds. Not too shabby. Lewis had 27 assists to 42 turnovers. That hurts your offensive rating as well. He had 31 steals. He was a bit hacky with 2.3 fouls a game. He fouled out of 2. Lewis spent most of the season in single digits per game, but had a 19 point game and an 18 point game.

F: Jonathan Holmes - The freshman played 21 minutes a game with 7.2 points. He used 18.1% of the Texas possessions with a 110.5 offensive rating. He was very efficient around the basket. He hit 49% on the season. Holmes likes to step out for the occasional 3, but only hit 10 of 39. He is another big who is a good foul shooter. Holmes hit 69-96 for 72%. He pulled in 4.8 boards a game. 2.2 of them were offensive. He pulled in 11.2% of the available offensive rebounds, 6th in the B12. He pulled in a more pedestrian 14.3% of defensive boards. Holmes had 16 assists to 42 turnovers. That's a lot. He is solid defensively. He had 24 steals and blocked 20 shots. He was 2nd in the B12 in fouls with 109. He fouled out of 7 games. He's like Texas' Justin Jackson. Holmes scored 16 twice. Both were against Carolina teams, NC State and UNC. He had two 9 rebound games.

C: Clint Chapman - The center played 22 minutes a game with 7.3 points per. He used 17.5% of the Longhorn possessions with a 112.6 offensive rating. He keeps it around the basket, but struggled some with his shot this year. He hit 49%, down from 58% last season. He's a very good foul shooter for a big man. He hit 66-84, 79%. Chapman is a solid rebounder. He pulled in 5.5 a game. He was 9th in the B12 by getting 11.2% of the offensive rebounds. He pulled in 18.2% of defensive rebounds. That was good for 12. He had 9 assists to 33 turnovers. Only 11 steals. Chapman is a shot blocker. He blocked 49 shots, 4th, 1.5 a game, 5th, and blocked them on 7.3% of possessions, 5th. He fouls a lot. He averaged 3 a game and fouled out of 4 contests. Chapman had 2 big scoring games this year. He had 20 against Texas Tech and 19 against Iowa St. He had 14 rebounds in the Iowa St game, a season high. He had 2 other 10 rebound games. Chapman blocked 5 shots in a game twice. One of them was against Texas Tech.

Bench: Sheldon McClellan - McClellan started 9 games, played 26 minutes with 11.3 points. He used 19.5% of possessions with a 118.2 offensive rating. McClellan is not a good outside shooter, 33-109 30%, but hit 125-277, 45% from the field. That means he goes strong to the basket. He's a solid foul shooter at 76%. He's another guard who gets 3 boards a game. He got 9.6% of the defensive rebounds. He had 18 assists to 28 turnovers. He made up for it by getting 34 steals. His 2.3 steal pct was 18th in the B12. McClellan has the ability to go off. He had a pair of 20 point games, 24 against OU, 23 against UTA, and a pair of 19 point games.

Jaylen Bond - The freshman forward played 16 minutes a game with 3.5 points. He used just 13.1% of the UT possessions with a 109.3 offensive rating. He shot 53% from the field. He's a terrible foul shooter. He was 11-30, 30.6%. He's an aggressive rebounder. He pulled in 4.6 a game. He got 13.1% of the offensive rebounds, 3rd in the B12 and 21.3% of the d-rebs, 4th. Given time, he's going to be a stud. He had 11 assists to 17 turnovers. He had 20 steals and blocked 14 shots. He fouls a lot as well. He averaged over 2 fouls a game and fouled out of 3. Bond scored in double digits twice. He put up 18 against Nicholls St and 12 against Temple. He had 12 boards in the NSU game and 2 other 9 rebound games.

Sterling Gibbs - Another freshman guard, sensing a theme?, Gibbs played 7.5 minutes a game with 2.6 points. He uses 19.9% of possessions with a 99.4 offensive rating. He hit 45% from the field. He was 13-35 from 3, 37%. Gibbs was 17-22, 77% at the foul line. Gibbs had 11 rebounds all season, 10 of them defensive. He had 21 assists to 25 turnovers. Gibbs chipped in 6 steals. He scored a career best 14 against Nicholls St.

--Bearcats Blog
 

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  • Paw Points

  • The man who would normally guard Yancy Gates, Alexis Wangmene, is out for the season after injuring his wrist the last game of the regular season. Tough way for a senior to go out.
  • Both teams had high profile offenses. Texas played at 67 possessions a game, UC at 65. UC averaged 1.06 points per possession, Texas 1.09. The Longhorns are the better shooting team, 43.6% compared to the Bearcats 42%. Texas is 9% better at the foul line, 73% to 64%. UC is the worst free throw shooting team in the field. The Bearcats are better at 3s. UC hit 7 of 21 a game, 34.3%. Texas was about 6 of 18 for 32.7%. Texas gets a higher percentage of points from the foul line than they do from 3.
  • Defensively, the Bearcats were better on ppp at 0.94 compared to 0.99. Teams shot 41% against both. But teams shot 23 FTs a game against Texas compared to 14 against UC. UC opponents were on average 5 of 17 from 3, 31.7%. Texas opponents were 6 of 17, 35.3%. That could bode well for Cincinnati. If UC can get to the line against Texas, opponents did at a 41.9 rate, the Bearcats could be in for a big offensive day.
  • Both teams averaged 36.2 rebounds a game. Texas got a higher percentage of offensive rebounds, 38.9% to 36.1%. The teams were close at 65.4% to 65.3% (UC) on defensive boards. Keeping the Longhorns from second shot opportunities would be ideal.
  • Numbers wise, these are 2 of the worst passing teams in the field. UC averaged 13 assists, UT 12.4. UC assisted on 51.8% of their FGs, UT 50%. Those ranked 226 and 267 respectively.
  • UC should have a huge advantage in turnovers. The Longhorns turned the ball over on 18.7% of possessions, UC 16.3. The per game difference is 2. UC gets steals on 12.1% of defensive possessions, 10.1% for UT. The Longhorn opponents have a steal pct of 8.7, which is high. Texas also fouls a lot more than UC, 19.5 a game to 15.1.
 
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