Cincinnati -- Xavier

[superbook]

Cincinnati +1

There's only one thing you need to know about tonight's Crosstown Shootout:

This is the first time that Cincinnati is the dog in this match-up.

Tonight's game is a fairly even match-up, IMO Cincinnati is a little better. The key for the Bearcats is to stop Xavier's David West and I think Cincy C Donald Little will do a better job of that this year. Last year Little got 2 fouls in the first five minutes and West ended up with a big game. Little has improved a lot since last year.

And I don't think the Muskies can stop Steve Logan; if they put their best defender Romain Sato on Logan, that means point guard Lionel Chalmers would give up 6 inches in defending UC shooting guard Leonard Stokes. Logan will shine on National TV.

This game usually means more to Xavier than to Cincinnati. The Bearcats were typically coming into this game as a top 25 team with Xavier the good local team looking to knock them off. The Muskies have a banner hanging in their gym of how many times they've beaten UC, while the Cincy rafters are filled with NCAA championship pennants and retired numbers of NBA stars like Oscar Robertson.

A typical game in this series would be Cincy getting up by 10-12 points and then somehow letting Xavier get back into the game and win on a last minute shot. IMO those comebacks were due to the greater motivation and preparation of the Muskies.

This year the Bearcats are obviously not taking this game lightly. In the last two seasons, Xavier had more time to get ready for this game, UC had one day or practice after two late games. This year both teams played Monday night games.

But Xavier players have had classes this past week and have final exams next week. They had to take a mandatory day off Tuesday and have had two days to practice. UC players are on winter break and have been staying at a local Marriott and have had unlimited time to practice and get ready for this game.

Cincinnati is coming off a 6 game homestand where they went 6-0 and Coach Huggins has been working to get them ready for the remainder of the season in which they spend a lot of time on the road. Huggins views this as a test of whether or not the Bearcats are ready.

gl

Crosstown Shootout: THE EDGE


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Positional breakdown


By Michael Perry and Neil Schmidt
The Cincinnati Enquirer
POINT GUARD

UC: Senior Steve Logan would have the advantage over most. He needs to have a solid game. That can mean shooting or passing. Logan is capable of nailing one jumper after another. If he is out of sync, as he was Monday night, so are the Bearcats. If this comes down to a final UC possession, the ball will likely be in Logan's hands.

XU: Junior Lionel Chalmers has shown steady improvement in his first season as the full-time starter, including a career-best 23-point night against Missouri. A sprained ankle bugged him in his one poor game at Purdue. His defense and decision-making tonight will mean much more than his scoring output.

EDGE: UC

SHOOTING GUARD

UC: This is one of the closer matchups. Junior Leonard Stokes has the potential to stand out in a number of ways: scoring, rebounding, passing or defense. He needs to shoot the ball better than he has been and help attack the boards. Stokes is the kind of player who could decide this one.

XU: Sophomore Romain Sato has been inconsistent this season. When he misses a few shots early, he has a hard time getting going, such as in his four-point outing against Wisconsin. As the team's second-leading scorer (12.7 avg.) and rebounder (7.0), his contributions are invaluable. He scored 14 last year against UC.

EDGE: UC

SMALL FORWARD

UC: Senior Immanuel McElroy has the experience and versatility to win this position. He played a minor role in last season's Shootout (13 minutes), but will probably be on the floor most of tonight. He gives UC some of its toughness and hustle. He needs to take and make open shots.

XU: Junior Dave Young is a wild card tonight. His game is greatly developed over last season, when he played a limited role ? including just three minutes in the Shootout. Young scored 19 points at San Francisco, but hasn't otherwise reached double figures. He averages 3.3 rebounds; XU needs more than that tonight.

EDGE: UC

POWER FORWARD

UC: There is no doubt senior Jamaal Davis has been playing some of his best basketball, but this is a night he has to step up against a top opponent. If Davis wins the power forward battle, it will help UC's cause greatly. His experience, poise, defense and rebounding are all musts.

XU: Senior Kevin Frey gets the edge here because he has played so well against UC. He is XU's warrior, welcoming the fierce play inside. He has had unsung contributions ? 10 steals, for example ? while trying to get his surgically repaired ankle up to speed. He'll need to exceed his 5.9 rebounding average.

EDGE: XU

CENTER

UC: There is a fine line for junior Donald Little between playing too aggressively ? and getting into foul trouble ? and playing smart but not passive. That's his challenge. Little has to make some shots inside and force David West work at that end. And Little has to be at his best on the defensive end. He must stay in this game. Repeat: He must stay in this game.

XU: If there's a game West needs to get selfish, it's this one. His career high for field-goal attempts is 17, and he averages 11.9 shots per game this season; he should shoot 20 times tonight. Drawing fouls ? like last season, when he went 15-of-19 at the line against UC ? is also crucial. When heavily guarded, West will find open teammates, who must make those shots.

EDGE: XU

BENCH

UC: Hard to say what the Bearcats will get. Freshman Jason Maxiell has proven capable of dominating in stretches defensively and on the boards. Field Williams has put together streaks of 3-point baskets. Those are two wild cards for the Bearcats. Maxiell, especially, could play a big role inside. And remember, 6-5 Rodney Crawford came off the bench for a team-high nine rebounds last season.

XU: The worry here is that only Keith Jackson, Jaison Williams and Alvin Brown get minutes, and not many. Against Missouri, the starters averaged 34.4 minutes. But there are just four scholarship players on the bench, and only one (Brown) isn't a freshman. Brown's experience could be key; he scored nine points against UC as a sophomore.

EDGE: UC

COACHING

UC: Bob Huggins has to get the nod if for no other reason than having coached in 12 Shootouts. Though Huggins talks about this being just another good game on the Bearcats' schedule, you'd better believe he does not want to lose a third in a row to the Musketeers, and he's had four full days to prepare for the game.

XU: Thad Matta has been to postseason play in each of his seven seasons as a full-time assistant or head coach, six at the NCAA Tournament. That's the closest approximation to this big-game pressure. Matta seemed to keep the Musketeers calm this week.

EDGE: UC

INTANGIBLES

UC: You can call it pressure if you'd like. But having lost four of the last five to Xavier isn't sitting well with UC. The Bearcats could come out tight tonight just because of that. It also will be the Bearcats' first game in Cintas Center, so it's a new environment. The home team usually gets the advantage here.

XU: This is one of the rare times XU isn't a big underdog. And after its recent run of success in this series, there certainly isn't any fear of the Bearcats. The big key here is the new arena, ready for its first taste of Shootout mayhem. How big a help is the super-loud crowd?

EDGE: XU

SCORE: UC 67, Xavier 65

[This message has been edited by superbook (edited 12-14-2001).]

 

[nighthorse]

IMO, Xavier is just a notch (maybe even just a half notch) below the teams of the last 2 or 3 years. They have done poorly against the line this year. And although they hung with, there's no way they could beat Missouri (the only game i've actually seen them). I think they're still a bit overvalued. Watched Cincy play Ok st. An intense group. They appear to enjoy hostile crowds. What SB says only strengthens my own impressions. I'll take Cincy.

 

[vanbasten]

great inside info on this matchup superbook. exactly what i needed to knock me off the fence on this game. good luck!

 

[loophole3]

nice anaysis of this game superbook. my first reaction was that this game is too close to call but if i see a line move in cincy's favor i just might bite. again, nice work.