JEFF said:
Not if you bet contrarian. If you like faves and seemingly obvious overs, MNF will take your $$ often.
JEFF, I never bet *contrarian* or fade because of a consensus.
My handicapping is based on fundamental team and individual player analysis, with just a bit of situational trends and mathematical starter projections thrown in.
I would never bet on a team simply because the 'majority' of squares are on the other side. In the past five years Ive almost completely stopped using that as even a reference tool. Yes, Vegas and the books put the lines out to make money but when Im putting my dollars on the table - there are things I need to know.
The cohension and health of the offensive line, the attitude/intensity of the week's practice, the coaches late week press conference quotes, injury reports, skill position starters, defensive schemes, etc.
Basically, If I sit down and handicap a game for a few hours and come up with a line of Rutgers -13 over Army, then I find out that the squares over at ********* are 77% on Rutgers -7 it doesnt affect my decision. Ive done my homework. Never ever would I go back on my
own analysis and play Army simply based on contrarian.
Some gamblers use that {consensus} as one of their initial methods of "cappin' ". I believe there are pages up here under Nolans writeups that subscribe to fading the public as their primary means of analysis. Thats fine and good. There are also folks simulating a 49.99 game on XBOX , and yet another capper who picks based on what milkbone his doggie eats. No offense, do what works for you. To each their own.
I will continue to handicap based on what has gotten me here - knowledge.
This past weekend Im sitting at the smoke filled sports bar getting ready for the one o'clock starts - its 12:50 and this guy walks up to me asking me "Who do you like?" He's not asking for small talk he wants to get a quick pick and call in his local for a bill or two. "Who's your team today?", I ask. "Cleveland at home, they shouda beat Indy last week!"
"Name two starters on the Browns offensive line." I ask.
"Huh?" he looks at me puzzled.
"If you cant answer that, you dont need to be betting anything serious on the game. For what its worth, Im not touching the side or total in this game, but I do have a nice prop on Jamal Lewis over 92' yards rushing." I bought him a beer after the first play of the game.
Getting back to the topic, MNF continues to be one of the most difficult games to handicap IMO.
Last night as example, either team could have come away with a win. There were several questionable calls on both sides including that late phantom 2nd pass interference call which let NY tie the game. That kickoff took an awkward bounce and if that doesnt go OOB, Dallas loses. A kicker who was 0-1 in week one missing a chip shot ends up tied for ALL TIME with seven FGs the next week. Some would make the statement that the OVER was an easy winner but with two defensive returns for TDs in the first half, who is to say how much that impacted the tempo and playcalling later on. Collins goes 7/20 FH and ends up chunking like 45 passes.
Great game to watch, probably one of the better MNF games this year. As for betting on, I'll pass.
