CLEVELAND at PITTSBURGH
Line: Steelers by 8
Total: 43
Comments: The UNDER looks to be the best play of the week. Not only do these two bitter rivals often play close, low-scoring games -- we also have the added intensity of a playoff atmosphere, which will surely add to the conservative nature of the offenses. The most obvious factor in support of the UNDER is that Cleveland's offense has been horribly inconsistent much of the season. When they have played MUST WIN games, they?ve come up short with lackluster offensive efforts versus the likes of Carolina and Baltimore. This week, a quarterback controversy is brewing in Cleveland, as backup Holcomb will start over the injured Tim Couch. Holcomb might be the right choice, but I don't like young, untested quarterbacks playing on the road in playoff games. They usually stink. The only trouble is for UNDER bettors -- they might allow the defense to score points. Without a running game, Cleveland is going to have MAJOR problems in this game. The Browns were ranked 29th in the NFL in rushing this season. That statistic does not bode well for a team that must play on the road at a cold weather site versus a team that is seeing fire. Add the fact that the Steelers are one of the NFL's best teams versus the run, and this could be a very long day for the Browns offense. I give the Browns (at most) 17 points in this game -- and that's with a special teams break or two. Pittsburgh remains something of a quagmire. The defense has trouble, at times, against mediocre teams -- but is also capable of playing very well when facing teams with a one dimensional offense (which applies to Cleveland). Steelers also have some concerns about RB Bettis, who may not be at full strength. This will be QB Maddox's first playoff game. Give the Browns defense credit: They held the dangerous Falcons to 16 points last week, and the Ravens to 13 points the week before. They allowed opponents to score 21+ in only three of their last 11 games. So, this unit is certainly capable of slowing down the Steelers. I expect that even if Pittsburgh scores a fair number of points, that means the Browns must produce some of their own. But consider this -- the Browns have not broken 24 points on offense in seven weeks. The two CLEVE/PITT games this season produced final scores of 16-13 and 23-20, a far cry from the semi-high scoring affair that seems to be suggested by this total. Five of the last six Browns games have gone UNDER the total. Add the intangible of possible cold weather in Pittsburgh this time of year, and this only adds to the likelihood that this game will go UNDER the total. Frankly, I consider this number to be ridiculous and I'm making this a large wager. I'd have this total at 40. As of this writing (mid-week) snow is possible with temperatures in the mid-20s. The colder it is, the more likely that at least one, if not both passing offenses will struggle.
A HUGE POINT: One factor I rarely see discussed, but which is incredibly important in totals betting is the strength of the kicking games. Steelers kicker Peterson is just 12 of 21 in FGs this season, including 3 of 7 from 40+ yards. What does this mean? It likely means that when Pittsburgh is 4th down and five on the opponent's 35 yard line, they probably WILL NOT try a 52-yard FG (contrast this with the other AFC game where the total is 43 -- both coaches will try the long FG with excellent kickers Hall and Vander Jagt.) The result is -- the Browns will be stuck deep in their own territory. That removes the potential for long FGs and increases the chances of a defensive struggle. It also saves 3 points every time that situation comes up (at least once or twice a game on average). Browns kicker Dawson is much more consistent -- 22 of 29 FGs this season, including two FGs from 50+. So this factor only applies to the Steelers.
QUESTION: BUT DIDN'T THE STEELERS GIVE UP 31 POINTS TO THE RAVENS LAST WEEK? Okay, yes. But that was a meaningless game for the Steelers, who played very loose and with none of the intensity they showed in Tampa the previous week. I'm throwing that game out, and expecting a much better defensive effort this week. Pittsburgh allowed 7 points the week before versus Tampa, 13 points versus Carolina, and 3 points versus Houston (all three Houston TDs were defensive scores). The defense is coming around.
RECOMMENDATION: PLAY UNDER 43 (get this early before it drops as news about the weather is now coming out -- see below)
WEATHER FORECAST:
Saturday: Cloudy with occasional flurries. Highs in the low 30s and lows in the mid 20s.
Sunday: Light snow at times. Highs in the low 30s and lows in the upper 20s.
-- Nolan Dalla
Line: Steelers by 8
Total: 43
Comments: The UNDER looks to be the best play of the week. Not only do these two bitter rivals often play close, low-scoring games -- we also have the added intensity of a playoff atmosphere, which will surely add to the conservative nature of the offenses. The most obvious factor in support of the UNDER is that Cleveland's offense has been horribly inconsistent much of the season. When they have played MUST WIN games, they?ve come up short with lackluster offensive efforts versus the likes of Carolina and Baltimore. This week, a quarterback controversy is brewing in Cleveland, as backup Holcomb will start over the injured Tim Couch. Holcomb might be the right choice, but I don't like young, untested quarterbacks playing on the road in playoff games. They usually stink. The only trouble is for UNDER bettors -- they might allow the defense to score points. Without a running game, Cleveland is going to have MAJOR problems in this game. The Browns were ranked 29th in the NFL in rushing this season. That statistic does not bode well for a team that must play on the road at a cold weather site versus a team that is seeing fire. Add the fact that the Steelers are one of the NFL's best teams versus the run, and this could be a very long day for the Browns offense. I give the Browns (at most) 17 points in this game -- and that's with a special teams break or two. Pittsburgh remains something of a quagmire. The defense has trouble, at times, against mediocre teams -- but is also capable of playing very well when facing teams with a one dimensional offense (which applies to Cleveland). Steelers also have some concerns about RB Bettis, who may not be at full strength. This will be QB Maddox's first playoff game. Give the Browns defense credit: They held the dangerous Falcons to 16 points last week, and the Ravens to 13 points the week before. They allowed opponents to score 21+ in only three of their last 11 games. So, this unit is certainly capable of slowing down the Steelers. I expect that even if Pittsburgh scores a fair number of points, that means the Browns must produce some of their own. But consider this -- the Browns have not broken 24 points on offense in seven weeks. The two CLEVE/PITT games this season produced final scores of 16-13 and 23-20, a far cry from the semi-high scoring affair that seems to be suggested by this total. Five of the last six Browns games have gone UNDER the total. Add the intangible of possible cold weather in Pittsburgh this time of year, and this only adds to the likelihood that this game will go UNDER the total. Frankly, I consider this number to be ridiculous and I'm making this a large wager. I'd have this total at 40. As of this writing (mid-week) snow is possible with temperatures in the mid-20s. The colder it is, the more likely that at least one, if not both passing offenses will struggle.
A HUGE POINT: One factor I rarely see discussed, but which is incredibly important in totals betting is the strength of the kicking games. Steelers kicker Peterson is just 12 of 21 in FGs this season, including 3 of 7 from 40+ yards. What does this mean? It likely means that when Pittsburgh is 4th down and five on the opponent's 35 yard line, they probably WILL NOT try a 52-yard FG (contrast this with the other AFC game where the total is 43 -- both coaches will try the long FG with excellent kickers Hall and Vander Jagt.) The result is -- the Browns will be stuck deep in their own territory. That removes the potential for long FGs and increases the chances of a defensive struggle. It also saves 3 points every time that situation comes up (at least once or twice a game on average). Browns kicker Dawson is much more consistent -- 22 of 29 FGs this season, including two FGs from 50+. So this factor only applies to the Steelers.
QUESTION: BUT DIDN'T THE STEELERS GIVE UP 31 POINTS TO THE RAVENS LAST WEEK? Okay, yes. But that was a meaningless game for the Steelers, who played very loose and with none of the intensity they showed in Tampa the previous week. I'm throwing that game out, and expecting a much better defensive effort this week. Pittsburgh allowed 7 points the week before versus Tampa, 13 points versus Carolina, and 3 points versus Houston (all three Houston TDs were defensive scores). The defense is coming around.
RECOMMENDATION: PLAY UNDER 43 (get this early before it drops as news about the weather is now coming out -- see below)
WEATHER FORECAST:
Saturday: Cloudy with occasional flurries. Highs in the low 30s and lows in the mid 20s.
Sunday: Light snow at times. Highs in the low 30s and lows in the upper 20s.
-- Nolan Dalla
