Cnotes 2018 College Football Thru The Bowl Games News- Trends-Stats-Best Bets !

[Cnotes53]

Orange Bowl Preview
December 28, 2018
By Brian Edwards

Cotton Bowl Preview

Alabama and Oklahoma are poised to collide in Saturday?s Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami. This College Football Playoff semifinal pits the SEC champs vs. the Big 12 champs.

As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Alabama (13-0 straight up, 8-5 against the spread) installed as a 14-point favorite with a total of 77 or 77.5. The Sooners were +425 on the money line (risk $100 to win $425).

For first-half wagers, the Crimson Tide was favored by 7.5 points with a total of 39. OU had +310 odds to be leading at intermission. Nick Saban?s team went 10-0 ATS in the first half to start the season, but it has failed to cover the number in the first half of each of its last three contests.

Alabama won its first 12 games by 22 points or more, marking the first time in more than a century that a college football team had been so dominant. However, Saban?s team was pushed to the limit by Georgia ? again ? in the SEC Championship Game at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta on Dec. 1.

Alabama trailed by double digits twice (21-7 and 28-14) and was tied or in catch-up mode for nearly 59 minutes. In fact, the Tide has been tied or trailed against UGA more than 118 minutes out of 120 played (plus overtime) in the last two head-to-head meetings. Of course, Alabama rallied to force overtime and eventually won a 26-23 decision over the Bulldogs in the finals of last year?s CFP.

Trailing 28-21 with a little more than 11 minutes left, Heisman Trophy runner-up Tua Tagovailoa went down with a foot injury and limped off the field needing assistance from the medical staff. In the blink of an eye, it was a complete reversal of roles for Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts.

Hurts led Alabama to a 26-2 record in 28 starts as a freshman and sophomore in 2016 and ?17. With his team down 13-0 at halftime to UGA in last year?s slugfest, Tagovailoa was called on to replace Hurts in the second half. We all know how that worked out.

I had sensed all year long, especially after Tagovailoa injured his knee late in a win at Arkansas, that Hurts would be called upon at some point during the season. But not necessarily at the same venue and against the same team when his career fortunes had taken a turn for the worse 11 months before.

Given the opportunity, Hurts took advantage and then some. He promptly guided the Tide to a game-tying TD drive that covered 16 plays, 80 yards and more than seven minutes of clock. Hurts capped the drive by hitting Jerry Jeudy with a 10-yard scoring strike.

After Kirby Smart lost his sanity and called a fake punt on fourth and 11 from around midfield with about three minutes left, Alabama took over with great field position. Hurts took his team down the field and gave it the lead for the first time on a 15-yard TD drive with 1:04 remaining.

Saban?s defense would shut the door on UGA and Alabama won a 35-28 decision to remain undefeated. The Bulldogs still took the cash as 11-point underdogs and the 63 points resulted in a push for wagers on the total.

Hurts completed 7-of-9 passes for 82 yards and one TD without an interception. The junior signal caller rushed for 28 yards and one score on five attempts. Tagovailoa had struggled the entire game, connecting on just 10-of-25 throws for 164 yards and one TD with a pair of interceptions. Josh Jacobs ran for 83 yards and two TDs on eight carries.

Tagovailoa indicated earlier this week that he was about 80-85 percent healthy. He underwent surgery on his ankle shorty after the win over UGA. The expectation is that he?ll start vs. OU, but how effective and comfortable he?ll be remains to be seen.

Tagovailoa has completed 67.7 percent of his passes for 3,353 yards with a 37/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. When healthy, he?s a threat with his legs, as he?s run for 190 yards and five TDs with a 4.0 yards-per-carry average.

Hurts has completed 50-of-67 throws (74.6%) for 755 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio. He?s rushed for 167 yards and two TDs while averaging 4.9 YPC.

Alabama is facing an Oklahoma defense that?s ranked dead last out of 130 FBS teams in pass defense, giving up 291.4 yards per game through the air. The Sooners are ranked No. 108 in the nation total defense, No. 54 versus the run and No. 96 in scoring ?D? (32.4 points per game).

The Tide is ranked fifth in the country in total offense, seventh in passing yards, 35th in rushing yards and second in scoring with its 47.9 PPG average. Alabama?s ground attack features a trio of outstanding RBs.

Damien Harris has run for 771 yards, seven TDs and averages 6.1 YPC. Najee Harris has 679 rushing yards, four TDs and a 6.7 YPC average, while Jacobs has run for 495 yards and 11 TDs with a 5.3 YPC average. Jacobs, who is also a standout on special teams, has 15 catches for 171 yards and two TDs.

Jeudy enjoyed a breakout campaign, catching 59 balls for 1,103 yards and 12 TDs. Jaylen Waddle has 41 receptions for 803 yards and seven TDs, while Henry Ruggs III has 42 grabs for 724 yards and 10 TDs. Irv Smith Jr. has 38 receptions for 648 yards and seven TDs, and Devonta Smith has 30 catches for 524 yards and five TDs.

Like Clemson, Alabama has three players suspended for the CFP semifinals. The most important of those is starting OG Deonte Brown.

Oklahoma (12-1 SU, 5-7-1 ATS) won its first five games, winning four times by double-digit margins. Lincoln Riley?s squad needed overtime to get past Army in a 28-21 win as a 30-point home ?chalk,? however. The Sooners took their only loss of the year by a 48-45 count vs. Texas on Oct. 6.

Since then, OU has ripped off seven straight victories, although we?ll note its 1-3-1 spread record in its past five outings. The Sooners won three one-possession games down the stretch, capturing a 51-46 triumph at Texas Tech a week before beating Oklahoma State 48-47 in Norman. In the regular-season finale at West Virginia on a short week (Friday game), they won 59-56 over the Mountaineers.

To get the fourth seed in the CFP just ahead of No. 5 Ohio State, Oklahoma faced a revenge game against the Longhorns in the Big 12 Championship Game. This time around, the Sooners got even and covered the spread in a 39-27 victory as 9.5-point favorites.

Junior QB Kyler Murray, the Heisman Trophy winner who beat out Tagovailoa for the award, completed 25-of-34 passes for 379 yards and three TDs without an interception. CeeDee Lamb had six receptions for 167 yards and one TD. Marquise ?Hollywood? Brown had five catches for 54 yards before suffering a foot injury.

For the season, Murray has connected on 70.9 percent of his passes for 4,053 yards with a 40/7 TD-INT ratio. Murray has run for 892 yards and 11 TDs with a 7.3 YPC average. He has Michael-Vick-like quickness and can not only elude pass rushers and scramble for positive yardage, but he can also keep plays alive hit streaking WRs. Obviously, he?ll be facing the toughest defense he?s seen, but pressure on the QB doesn?t necessarily translate to sacks when dealing with Murray.

Brown, who was upgraded to ?probable? Friday morning, has 75 receptions for 1,318 yards and 10 TDs. Lamb has caught 57 balls for 1,049 yards and 10 TDs, while Lee Morris has 21 grabs for 457 yards and eight TDs. Grant Calcaterra has 25 receptions for 378 yards and six TDs.

When star RB Rodney Anderson went down with a season-ending injury in Week 1, there was concern about depth at the position for OU. Those concerns were quickly alleviated by the emergence of redshirt freshman RB Kennedy Brooks, who has run for 1,021 yards and 12 TDs with a 9.0 YPC average. Trey Sermon has run for 928 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 6.0 YPC.

This is only the fourth underdog situation for the Sooners since Riley took over for Bob Stoops. They were ?dogs three times last year, going 2-1 both SU and ATS. OU won outright by a 31-16 count at Ohio State as a seven-point puppy and captured a 62-52 win at Oklahoma State while catching 2.5 points. The loss came to Georgia in the epic Rose Bowl thriller won by the Bulldogs 54-48 in double overtime.

Oklahoma hasn?t been a double-digit underdog since thumping Alabama 45-31 as a 15-point ?dog in the 2013 Sugar Bowl.

The ?over? has hit at an 8-4-1 clip for Alabama, which has seen its games average combined scores of 62.8 PPG.

The ?over? is 11-2 overall for the Sooners, who have watched their games average combined scores of 81.8 PPG.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[Cnotes53]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

SOCAR at UVA 12:00 PM
UVA +3.5
U 53.5

FLA at MICH 12:00 PM
MICH -4.5
U 51.0

ARST at NEV 01:15 PM
ARST +1.0
U 56.0

ND at CLEM 04:00 PM
CLEM -11.5
U 57.5

OKLA at ALA 08:00 PM
ALA -13.5
U 79.0

 

[Cnotes53]

Florida routs Michigan 41-15 in Peach Bowl
December 29, 2018
By The Associated Press

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) Tua Tagovailoa threw for 318 yards and four touchdowns and No. 1-ranked Alabama beat No. 4 Oklahoma 45-34 on Saturday night in the College Football Playoff semifinal at the Orange Bowl.

The high-scoring Sooners reached the semifinal despite a porous defense that was no match for Alabama's diverse attack, and the Crimson Tide led 28-0 after only 17 minutes.

Alabama (14-0) advanced to the national championship game for the fourth consecutive season and will play Jan. 7 in Santa Clara, California against familiar foe Clemson, which beat Notre Dame 30-3 in the Cotton Bowl. Clemson, ranked No. 2, and Alabama will face off in the playoffs for the fourth year in a row, and have split two title games.

Tagovailoa's performance in the semifinal argued for a Florida recount in the Heisman Trophy vote. He finished as the runner-up to Oklahoma's Kyler Murray but won sweet consolation by completing 24 of 27 passes, with scores to four receivers.

While Tagovailoa connected on his first nine passes for 184 yards, Murray was sacked twice before he threw a pass, and his first completion came with his team already down 21-0.

Murray had one brilliant moment, a perfect deep throw on the move to Charleston Rambo in the end zone for a 49-yard score. He passed for 308 yards and ran for 109 but took several jarring hits, including when All-America nose guard Quinnen Williams dislodged his helmet and forced him from the game for one play in the fourth quarter.

The Sooners finished 12-2.

COTTOM BOWL

NO. 2 CLEMSON 30, NO. 3 NOTRE DAME 3

ARLINGTON, Texas (AP) - Trevor Lawrence threw for 327 yards and three touchdowns and Clemson beat Notre Dame to reach the championship game for the third time in four seasons.

Clemson's overpowering and experienced defensive line, led by ends Clelin Ferrell and Austin Bryant, smothered Ian Book and the Fighting Irish, holding them to 248 yards to help the Tigers improve to 14-0.

On offense, freshmen led the way. Lawrence, making his 10th career start, was 27 for 39 and did not throw an interception against a Notre Dame defense that had been one of the best on the country. Freshman receiver Justyn Ross had six catches for 148 yards and two long touchdowns.

The Irish (12-1) hung around for a quarter, with the team's exchanging field goals. But early in the second quarter, Notre Dame All-America cornerback Julian Love went out with what coach Brian Kelly said after the game was a head injury and Lawrence started taking apart the Irish secondary.

Lawrence hooked up with Ross on a deep throw down the sideline and the big receiver beat Love's backup, Donte Vaughn, for a tackle-breaking, 52-yard score early in the second quarter. The Irish looked as if they might be able to keep it close to halftime, but the offense couldn't keep that ferocious Clemson front, even without suspended star tackle Dexter Lawrence, out of the backfield.

In the final 2 minutes, Trevor Lawrence connected with Ross on a 42-yard score and with Tee Higgins for a one-handed, 19-yard touchdown reception - again over Vaughn - with 2 seconds left in the second quarter. Lawrence was 13 for 15 for 229 yards in the quarter.

That made it 23-3 at half and once again the Fighting Irish looked outclassed against the best of the best. Not so different from the 42-14 loss to Alabama in the 2012 BCS championship game or the 44-28 loss to Ohio State in the 2016 Fiesta Bowl. In fact, Notre Dame is 0-8 in BCS and New Year's Six games since winning the Cotton Bowl in 1993.

PEACH BOWL

NO. 10 FLORIDA 41, NO. 8 MICHIGAN 15

ATLANTA (AP) - Lamical Perine had a 5-yard scoring catch and 53-yard touchdown run to lead Florida's strong rushing attack Saturday, helping the Gators cap their comeback season with a blowout victory over Michigan in the Peach Bowl.

After finishing 4-7 in 2017, Florida enjoyed a dramatic turnaround in Dan Mullen's first season as coach. Florida (10-3) closed the season with four straight victories. Michigan (10-3) closed a promising season with two straight lopsided losses.

Feleipe Franks ran and passed for touchdowns for Florida. He had a 20-yard scoring run in the second quarter and finished with 74 yards rushing on 14 carries. Franks passed for 173 yards.

Chauncey Gardner-Johnson led Florida's defense with two interceptions, including one returned 30 yards for a touchdown with less than five minutes remaining. Gardner-Johnson's first interception early in the second half, when Florida led only 13-10, set the tone for the Gators.

The Wolverines faced the unenviable task of having four top starters, including top rusher Karan Higdon and leading tackler Devin Bush, skip the game to focus on the NFL draft.

After giving up 567 yards in a 62-39 loss to Ohio State to close the regular season, Michigan's defense again couldn't play up to its No. 1 ranking. Florida had 427 yards - 257 on the ground.

BELK BOWL

VIRGINIA 28, SOUTH CAROLINA 0

CHARLOTTE, N.C. (AP) - Bryce Perkins threw three touchdown passes to Olamide Zaccheaus, Virginia's defense dominated and the Cavaliers beat South Carolina in the Belk Bowl for their first bowl victory since 2005.

Perkins completed 22 of 31 passes for 208 yards and ran for 81 yards to help the Cavaliers (8-5) ended the ACC's longest bowl drought. Zaccheaus had 12 catches for 100 yards. Jordan Ellis ran for 106 yards and a touchdown, helping Virginia hold the ball for more than 42 minutes.

The Gamecocks (7-6) were shut out for the first time since an 18-0 loss to Georgia in 2006.

ARIZONA BOWL

NEVADA 16, ARKANSAS STATE 13, OT

TUCSON, Ariz. (AP) - Reagan Roberson bulldozed through one tackler and dove into the end zone on an 11-yard catch-and-run in overtime, lifting Nevada over Arkansas State in the Arizona Bowl.

Nevada (8-5) labored against Arkansas State's defensive front all game before coming to life late, going up 10-7 on Devonte Lee's 1-yard touchdown run with 1:06 left.

Arkansas State (8-5) racked up 499 yards, but was 1 for 5 in the red zone with two turnovers before marching quickly down the field at the end of regulation. Blake Grupe, who had one field goal blocked and badly missed on another, drilled a 32-yarder to tie it on the final play.

Grupe opened overtime with a 24-yard field goal, but Roberson bulled his way into the end zone to send the Wolf Pack rushing onto the field.

 

[Cnotes53]

Decision time for Murray: Football, baseball or both?
December 30, 2018
By The Associated Press

MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. (AP) Kyler Murray had it all working: Pinpoint throws, speedy feet and unflappable resolve all the way to the finish.

If this was his football finale, it was a gem.

Murray threw for 308 yards and two touchdowns, rushed for another 109 and another touchdown, led Oklahoma to scores on its final six possessions - sans for a 25-second one to end the first half - and it still wasn't enough. The Heisman Trophy winner isn't going to play in the national championship game, after top-ranked Alabama downed fourth-ranked Oklahoma 45-34 in the Orange Bowl on Saturday night.

So now Murray can begin contemplating his career plan a week earlier than he hoped.

Baseball or football?

A massive decision awaits. And the way the Sooners see it, it's a win-win decision for Murray.

''He's either going to be a major league baseball star or he's going to be a Pro Bowler,'' Oklahoma coach Lincoln Riley said. ''He just needs to decide which one.''

Murray became the first player in nearly five years to throw for at least 300 yards and rush for at least another 100 in a bowl game - the most recent to do that was Tajh Boyd, also in the Orange Bowl, for Clemson in its win over Ohio State on Jan. 3, 2014. It was also the third time Murray pulled off that feat this season, more than any other player in major college football.

''He did a great job tonight,'' Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa said. ''He did a tremendous job.''

Murray's ability on the football field cannot be argued.

Nor can his ability on the baseball diamond - the Oakland Athletics made him the No. 9 pick in this year's draft, paying about $4.6 million in bonus money for someone they could see in their outfield before too long.

As was the case for Baker Mayfield last season, the Heisman couldn't help deliver a win in the CFP semifinals for Murray. He and the Sooners were playing uphill all night, after giving up an Orange Bowl-record 21 points in the first quarter and eventually trailing 28-0 before finally getting on the board.

When they figured out what worked, it was simply too late.

The Sooners (12-2) got to 31-20 and 38-27 in the fourth, but the quest for a miracle comeback essentially ended there. Murray said he didn't give thought coming into this CFP semifinal at the Orange Bowl that it could be his final football game. If he had his way, of course, he'd be heading to Santa Clara, California in a few days to meet second-ranked Clemson for the national championship.

Take away the brutal start, and he might have gotten there.

Murray was dazzling all the way to the end, even after getting knocked out of the game briefly in the fourth quarter following a crushing tackle by Alabama's Quinnen Williams. He engineered touchdowns on his final three drives of the season, running the last one in himself.

Now he needs to decide if that was the last trip to the end zone he'll ever make.

 

[Cnotes53]

2018-2019 College Bowl Record - Opinions and Best Bets !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS

12/29/2018 5-4-1 55.56% +3.00
12/28/2018 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
12/27/2018 5-1-0 83.33% +19.50
12/26/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
12/22/2018 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
12/21/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/20/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
12/19/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/18/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/15/2018 4-6-0 40.00% -13.00

TOTAL............24-29-0.......45.28%.....-39.50


*********************************


DATE........................ATS................... UNITS..................O/U....................UNITS.................TOTAL

12/29/2018.............2 - 2.................-1.00....................1 - 1.....................-0.50................-1.50
12/28/2018.............2 - 1.................+4.50...................0 - 3.....................-16.50..............-12.00
12/27/2018.............2 - 1.................+4.50...................3 - 0....................+15.00..............+19.50
12/26/2018.............0 - 2..................-11.00..................1 - 2....................-6.00.................-17.00
12/22/2018.............2 - 2..................-1.00....................2 - 2....................-1.00.................-2.00
12/21/2018.............1 - 1..................-0.50....................1 - 1....................-0.50.................-1.00
12/20/2018.............1 - 0.................+5.00....................0 - 1....................-5.50.................-0.50
12/19/2018.............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1....................-5.50.................-11.00
12/18/2018.............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1....................-5.50.................-11.00
12/15/2018.............0 - 4..................-22.00..................3 - 2....................+4.00................-18.00

TOTAL...................10 - 15................-32.50.................11 - 14..................-22.00...............-54.50

 

[Cnotes53]

*Monday's Early Bowl Tips*
Joe Nelson

The College Football Championship is set for next Monday, but the New Year’s Eve Monday schedule features six big games as the bowl season nears its end. Here is a look at the three early day games on Monday’s schedule on the final day of 2018 with the Miltary, Sun, and Red Box Bowl games.

*MILITARY BOWL

Matchup: Virginia Tech Hokies at Cincinnati Bearcats*
Venue: Navy-Marine Corps Stadium in Annapolis, Maryland
Time/TV: Monday, December 31, 12:00 PM ET, ESPN
*Line: Cincinnati -6, Over/Under 53?*
Last Meeting: 2014 (Military Bowl) Virginia Tech (+1?) 33, Cincinnati 17

This is a rematch of the 2014 Military Bowl won by Virginia Tech. The Hokies started the season with great promise winning 24-3 against Florida State to seemingly take a commanding lead in the ACC Coastal, a lead they still held with a 3-0 ACC start even despite suffering non-conference losses to Old Dominion and Notre Dame. Quarterback Josh Jackson was injured in the stunning loss to the Monarchs and the Hokies would wind up losing four consecutive ACC games by double-digits to slip to 4-6. A wild overtime win over rival Virginia kept the season alive and then on championship weekend, the Hokies added a game with Marshall to keep alive a streak of now 26 straight postseason appearances.

Taking over for a legend in Frank Beamer, Justin Fuente had a great first season in Blacksburg, but this marks a second straight season of decline for the Hokies. His team lost a few key players to off-season incidents and dealing with a quarterback change was certainly a challenge as junior Ryan Willis had mixed results. In an ACC Coastal race that was wide open, finishing in fifth place was a poor showing for the program that always has set a high bar for expectations. The opportunity to close the season with a bowl win could build some momentum for next season when the Coastal race figures to again be wide open.

Cincinnati had a breakthrough season going 10-2 in Luke Fickell’s second season guiding the program. The Bearcats passed over long-time quarterback Hayden Moore for freshman Desmond Ridder and after an opening upset over UCLA, the Bearcats didn’t look back. Both losses came on the road vs. arguably the top two American Athletic teams and statistically there is massive gap between these squads with Cincinnati out-scoring foes 419-193 on the season while Virginia Tech was out-scored 357-368.

Cincinnati has out-rushed each of its last eight opponents by more than 100 yards while a Hokies program known for its defensive reputation featured one of the nation’s worst rush defenses, surrendering 207 yards per game on 5.3 yards per carry, a worse per carry average allowed than 120 of the other 129 FBS teams. Cincinnati’s schedule certainly can be called into question however as the only wins over bowl teams this season came vs. Ohio, Tulane, and South Florida and all of those games were at home. The AAC has also had a poor bowl season so far with only Tulane getting a narrow win over Louisiana-Lafayette while Temple, South Florida, Houston, and Memphis have all lost bowl games with the first three teams on that list blown out.

*SUN BOWL

Matchup: Pittsburgh Panthers vs. Stanford Cardinal*
Venue: Sun Bowl in El Paso, Texas
Time/TV: Monday, December 31, 2:00 PM ET, CBS
*Line: Stanford -5, Over/Under 52*
Last Meeting: 1932 Pittsburgh (NL) 7, at Stanford 0

Pittsburgh had an unusual season as they were outscored by 31 points in going 7-6, but they wound up 6-2 in ACC play and won the Coastal title. The Panthers lost badly to Clemson in the ACC Championship but after missing the postseason last year for the first time since 2007, the Panthers are back in a bowl game for the third time in four years under Pat Narduzzi.

The Panthers were one of the top rushing teams in the nation, set to eclipse 3,000 rushing yards for the season in this game while posting 5.6 yards per carry with both Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall breaking the 1,000-yard barrier. The passing game was limited behind sophomore Kenny Pickett, but Pittsburgh had a daunting schedule as four of the team’s six losses came against Penn State, and three teams that are a combined 37-0 facing UCF, Notre Dame, and Clemson. Pittsburgh also lost to North Carolina and Miami and the formula for beating the Panthers is clear, stop the running game.

David Shaw has led a successful run at Stanford but once again the Cardinal failed to rise to the top national stage and for the second straight season the defensive numbers were marginal for a program that has a reputation for quality defense. Stanford was reasonably effective against the run allowing 3.9 yards per carry and 141 yards per game. Stanford’s offense surprisingly did not produce good rushing numbers even with Bryce Love entering the season as a Heisman candidate. Love wound up missing a few games this season and has seen his rushing total drop from 2,118 yards last season to only 739 yards this season and his per carry average nearly halved and he will not be playing in this bowl game.

With three straight wins to end the season, Stanford wound up 8-4 but hopes were certainly much higher with a 4-0 start that included wins over USC and Oregon. Both of those Pac-12 powers also wound up with down seasons, but the Cardinal had five wins vs. bowl teams and stayed in the Pac-12 race most of the way, losing in close games with Washington and Washington State. Coming off a disastrous 1-8 bowl campaign last season, the Cardinal are a team the Pac-12 is counting on for win as nearly a touchdown favorite in El Paso. The early returns for the conference haven’t been great with Arizona State and California losing while Washington State had a very narrow win while being severely out-gained, though that win does ensure that the conference will improve its bowl record this season with only seven teams in play.

*RED BOX BOWL

Matchup: Michigan State Spartans vs. Oregon Ducks*
Venue: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California
Time/TV: Monday, December 31, 3:00 PM ET, FOX
*Line: Oregon -2?, Over/Under 48*
Last Meeting: 2015 at Michigan State (-4?) 31, Oregon 28

Formerly the San Francisco Bowl, the Red Box Bowl has an alluring matchup this season that is likely the best of the New Year’s Eve slate, while being played on the field where next week’s championship game will be played. Oregon wound up just 8-4, but the Ducks scored 37 points per game and were one of the teams to beat eventual Pac-12 champion Washington. That game along with Oregon’s painful home loss to Stanford, were two of the more memorable games of the season. Oregon is led by junior quarterback Justin Herbert, who is a top NFL quarterback prospect and the program received a big boost with his recent announcement to not only play in this game but to return for his senior season.

Herbert wound up with underwhelming numbers completing fewer than 60 percent of his passes but he also didn’t have the typical Oregon rushing attack supporting him as the Ducks had modest results on the ground with 191 yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. Oregon also played a very weak non-conference schedule while drawing a favorable Pac-12 slate as this was a team that seemed like it should have done more than the 8-4 result with a 5-4 Pac-12 finish. It has been a challenging transition for the program however with Mario Cristobal in his first season, a year after Willie Taggert coached just one season before leaving for Florida State.

Michigan State wound up just 7-5 this season, but the Spartans have superb defensive numbers in what will be billed a clash of contrasting styles of teams. The Spartans lost three Big Ten home games this season, but the defense allowed only 18 points per game while playing a tough non-conference schedule that included two bowl teams plus a difficult Big Ten slate that included two of the eventual top three teams from the West. Michigan State wound up only beating three bowl teams on the season however though one of those wins was an impressive result at Penn State.

Herbert will be tasked with making plays in this game as Michigan State ranks second nationally behind Clemson in allowing just 2.7 yards per rush with the 81 yards per game average in run defense the best in the nation. The offensive numbers for the Spartans are ugly however, posting just 122 rushing yards per game on 3.5 yards per carry and quarterback play was an issue all season. Junior Brian Lewerke completed just 54 percent of his passes with more interceptions than touchdowns while freshman Rocky Lombardi wound up with even worse numbers despite the Spartans winning two of his three starts. Lewerke is getting the nod to start this game for Mark Dantonio who has won five of his last six bowl games after losing his first four with the program.


***************


*Monday's Late Bowl Tips*
Joe Williams

***Missouri vs. Oklahoma State**

Liberty Bowl*

-- The Missouri Tigers (8-4 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Southeastern Conference will battle the Oklahoma State Cowboys (6-6 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Big 12 Conference in the Autozone Liberty Bowl in Memphis, Tenn.

-- Mizzou has a pretty extensive bowl history, and they have had a resurgence under head coach Barry Odom over the past couple of seasons. Gary Pinkel built the program into a perennial contender, but they had a couple of lean years from 2015-16. Odom has led them back, although their loss in the Texas Bowl last season snapped a three-game bowl winning streak. This will be their first bowl game against Oklahoma State since the Cotton Bowl Classic in 2013, a 41-31 win. These two teams used to be conference mates in the Big 12 for many years, too.

-- Oklahoma State enters on a two-game bowl winning streak, including the 30-21 win against Virginia tech in the Camping World Bowl in Orlando last season. The Cowboys have appeared in a bowl in 13 consecutive seasons, and they're 6-2 SU over the past eight. This will be their first-ever appearance in the Liberty Bowl.

-- The Tigers fired out of the box with three straight wins, scoring 40 or more points in each of the outings. However, they fell short by a 43-29 count against Georgia on Sept. 22 before a 37-35 loss at South Carolina. They also were clubbed by Alabama 39-10 on Oct. 13, slipping to 3-3. They lost an absolute heartbreaker to Kentucky on the last play of the game Oct. 27 in Columbia, but that was the last time they suffered defeat. That loss galvanized the team and they ripped off four straight wins while going 3-1 ATS, including a 38-17 win at Florida on Nov. 3.

-- The Cowboys also opened 3-0 SU/2-1 ATS in their first three before getting tripped up 41-17 at home against Texas Texh. Their best win of the season might have been a 38-35 victory against Texas as short 'dogs at home on Oct. 27, ruining the playoff chances of the Longhorns in the process. They nearly turned the trick against Oklahoma, too, but came up just short in a 48-47 classic in Norman. The Cowboys were able to drop West Virginia out of the picture on Nov. 17.

-- Oklahoma State finished 10th in total yards (499.2 YPG) with 306.7 passing yards per contests to finish 12th in that area. They're also 14th in the country with 38.4 points per game (PPG), with their only weakness in the rushing game. Defensively they had major issues, too, like most Big 12 clubs, ranking 99th in total yards allowed (437.1 YPG), 108th against the pass (258.2 YPG) and 97th in points allowed (32.4 PPG).

-- Missouri can hang in the pass game, ranking 27th with 271.6 YPG, while checking in 16th in total yards (468.8 YPG). They were also 19th in the land with 36.9 PPG. Defensively their hot spot was against the run, checking in 21st with just 122.9 YPG. They were dinged for 256.1 YPG to finish 104th overall, while yielding just 24.4 PPG to finish 45th.

-- Cowboys QB Taylor Cornelius took the baton from Mason Rudolph and rolled up 3,637 passing yards, 28 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with 385 rushing yards and 10 scores. WR Tylan Wallace is the next star in the pass game, racking up 1,398 receiving yards with 11 scores.

-- Tigers QB Drew Lock is the start and a future first-round pick in the NFL perhaps. He threw for 3,125 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions with six rushing scores. RB Larry Rountree III rumbled for 1,012 yards and 10 touchdowns, while RB Damarea Crockett chipped in with seven scores on the ground.

-- Missouri is 5-2 ATS in the past seven outside of the conference, but they're just 1-4 ATS in the past five against Big 12 foes and 1-8 ATS across the past nine played in the month of December.

-- Oklahoma State is 8-1 ATS in the past nine non-conference tilts, and they're 5-1 ATS in the past six against teams with a winning record. The Cowboys are also 4-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site contests.

-- The over is 4-1 in Missouri's past five bowl games and 3-0-1 in their past four non-conference battles while going 5-2 in their past seven neutral-site affairs.

-- The under has hit in four in a row during bowl season, while going 7-1-1 in the past nine games in the month of December. The under is also 5-1 in their past six against the SEC.

-- Kickoff is slated for 3:45 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

***Northwestern vs. Utah**

Holiday Bowl*

-- The San Diego County Credit Union Holiday Bowl is a matchup between the Northwestern Wildcats (8-5 straight up, 6-7 against the spread) from the Big 10 Conference against the Utah Utes (9-4 straight up, 7-6 against the spread) from the Pac-12 Conference at Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego, Calif. in a battle of Top 25 teams.

-- The Wildcats appeared in just one bowl game before Gary Barnett took them to the Rose Bowl in 1995. One. The late Randy Walker took over and led them to three bowl games in 2000, 2003 and 2005. However, it's been Pat Fitzgerald who has transformed the program into a perennial contender, and they're winning bowl games now, too. In their first 10 bowl games they won just once, in 1948. They topped Mississippi State in 2012 in the Gator Bowl, they topped Pittsburgh in the Pinstripe Bowl in 2016, and they dumped Kentucky last season in the Music City Bowl. This will be their first-ever apperance in the Hoiliday Bowl.

-- Utah puts a five-game bowl winning streak on the line against Northwestern. They spanked West Virginia 30-14 in the Heart of Dallas Bowl last season, and they have won 14 of their past 15 appearances during bowl season. While they have never appeared in the Holiday Bowl, they won a pair of Poinsettia Bowl appearances in this stadium in 2007 against Navy and 2009 against California.

-- The Wildcats didn't get off to a great start, going 1-3 SU/2-2 ATS through the first four games, including losses at home to Duke and Akron. However, they ended up winning seven of their final eight contests to win the Big 10 West and make their first-ever appearance in the league's title game. They were overmatched 45-24 against Ohio State to land in this bowl.

-- The Utes opened with two wins, but they lost to both Washington schools from the Pac-12 to start out 2-2 SU/1-3 ATS. They rebounded with a 40-21 win at Stanford to perhaps save their season, or at least give them confidence again. They topped USC 41-28 on Oct. 20, and they won seven of eight from Oct. 6 to Nov. 24 to easily qualify for the postseason. A 10-3 loss in the Pac-12 title game showed they have plenty of defense, but their offense was a huge disappointment in that one.

-- Utah ranked 71st in total yards per game (396.6 YPG) and 91st in passing yards (207.2 YPG). They were decent on the ground, ranking 48th with 189.5 YPG with a rather average 28.7 PPG, good for 70th in the land. On defense, they locked down the run game with just 102.9 YPG allowed, finishing sixth in the nation. They were 15th in total yards, too, allowing just 316.2 YPG.

-- Northwestern managed to finish just 106th in total yards per game (356.8 YPG) and just 119th in rushing offense (117.5 YPG). They also struggled to put points on the board, averaging just 23.7 PPG to finish 106th overall in the nation. Defensively they were also 106th against the pass (258.1 YPG). They're strongest against the run with 132.6 YPG allowed.

-- For the Wildcats, WR Flynn Nagel (leg) is listed as questionable due to a leg injury.

-- For the Utes, QB Tyler Huntley (collarbone) is considered probable, but he'll have to do without RB Zack Moss (knee) and WR Britain Covey (knee), two key components in the offense this season.

-- Northwestern enters the game 4-1-1 ATS over the past six games against teams with a winning overall record, but they're 0-3-1 ATS in the past four non-conference tilts.

-- Utah is 4-1 ATS in the past five bowl games and they're 6-1 ATS in the past seven against Big Ten foes. They're also 10-4-1 ATS in the past 15 against winning teams, 20-8 ATS in the past 28 non-conference battles and 10-4 ATS in the past 14 neutral-site contests.

-- The under is 4-1 in Northwestern's past five bowl games, while going 5-2 in their past seven overall and 23-8-1 in the past 32 non-conference contests.

-- The under is 4-1 in Utah's past five neutral-site games, and 4-1 in their past five against the Big Ten. However, the over is 5-1 in Utah's past six against teams with a winning record.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between Northwestern and Utah.

-- Kickoff is slated for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on FOX Sports 1.

***N.C. State vs. Texas A&M**

Taxslayer Gator Bowl*

-- The Taxslayer Gator Bowl is a showdown between the North Carolina State Wolfpack (9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Atlantic Coast Conference and the Texas A&M Aggies (8-4 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) from the SEC at Everbank Field in Jacksonville, Fla.

-- The Wolfpack have won two straight bowl games, and eight of their past 11 in the postseason. This will be their first appearance in this bowl since the Jan. 1, 2003, a 28-6 win against Notre Dame. Overall in three previous Gator Bowl appearances the Wolfpack are 1-2 SU.

-- The Aggies head into this one on a three-game losing streak during the bowl season, including a 55-52 shootout loss against Wake Forest last season in the Belk Bowl. The las time the Aggies appearance in the Gator Bowl was way back in 1957 when Bear Bryant was the head coach, and they lost 3-0 against Tennessee.

-- N.C. State fired out of the chute with a 5-0 SU/3-2 ATS mark and a Top 25 ranking heading into the Oct. 20 battle at Clemson. They proved they were quite ready for the big time, getting slapped back 41-7 in Death Valley, and they followed that up with a 51-41 loss at Syracuse to take themselves out of the ACC championship chase. However, they beat Florida State 47-28 for a good one at home, and won three straight to finish up, including a 58-3 whipping of East Carolina on Dec. 1.

-- A&M also lost to Clemson, falling 28-26 at home on Sept. 8 in a very good showing. They opened with four straight covers, and they were 5-2 SU/6-1 ATS through the first seven contests. They had some difficulty with losses at Mississippi State and Auburn, but they finished up with three straight wins against Mississippi, UAB and LSU to end the season on a high note. That Tigers game was a ridiculous 74-72 which went seven overtimes.

-- N.C. State had a successful season on offense, ranking 15th in total yards per game (471.5 YPG) with 327.7 yards per game to finish sixth through the air. They had trouble running, ranking 98th overall, but still managed to score 35.6 PPG to finish 20th in the nation. Defensively they were strong against the run, allowing just 109.1 YPG, but they were dinged for 271.2 YPG to finish 121th in the country.

-- A&M finished 20th in total yards (465.8 YPG), 34th in passing yards (262.0 YPG) and 30th in rushing yards (203.8 YPG) while posting 34.7 PPG to finish 26th. They had some of the best balance in the country on offense. Defensively they weren't as balanced, allowing just 92.0 YPG to finish second in the country, while allowing 262.7 YPG to end up 111th.

-- For A&M, QB Kellen Mond was sufficient in the pass game, throwing for 2,967 yards, 23 touchdowns and eight interceptions while running for 387 yards and six scores. RB Trayveon Williams piled up 1,524 yards and 15 scores. TE Jace Sternberger is a force with a team-high 804 yards and 10 scores.

-- QB Ryan Finley is a beast for N.C. State, posting 3,789 passing yards, 24 scores and nine INTs. On the ground, RB Reggie Gallaspy II posted 1,014 yards and 18 touchdowns, including the game-winner in OT against rival UNC, perhaps his most memorable.

-- N.C. State is 7-2-1 ATS across the past 10 bowl games while going 4-1 ATS in the past five out of conference. However, they're just 1-6 ATS in their past seven tries against SEC foes.

-- A&M has covered seven straight out of conference battles while going 8-3 ATS across the past 11 against winning teams. They have covered nine of the past 13 overall, too.

-- The over is 6-0 in N.C. State's past six bowl games and 8-0 in their past eight neutral-site tilts. They over is also 11-4-1 in the past 16 non-conference contests.

-- For A&M, the over is 6-1 in their past seven non-SEC games, 4-1 in the past five bowls and 8-2 ATS in the past nine following a non-cover.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between N.C. State and Texas A&M on the gridiron.

-- Kickoff is slated for 7:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

 

[Cnotes53]

2018-19 bowls

December 31

Military Bowl, Annapolis
Virginia Tech (+2.5) beat Cincinnati 33-17 in this bowl four years ago, but both teams have new coaches since then; underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in last five Military Bowls that didn?t involve host school Navy. Average total in this bowl last five years is 59.8. Cincinnati won four of last five games, are 2-3 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Virginia Tech won its last two games, scoring 34-41 points, after losing their previous four games. Hokies won three of last four bowls; Cincy is in its first bowl since ?15- they lost last three bowls, by 22-16-35 yards.

Sun Bowl, El Paso
Favorites covered four of last five Sun Bowls, with average total of 57.2 in those games. Stanford won this game two years ago, beating North Carolina 25-23. Cardinal won last three games after a 5-4 start; they?re 5-3-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Seven of last nine Stanford games went over total; four of last five Pitt games stayed under. Panthers lost last two games, 24-3/42-10; they?re 5-4 as an underdog. Cardinal won three of last four bowls, with last two both decided by two points. Pittsburgh lost their last three bowls, giving up 36.7 ppg.

Red Box Bowl, Santa Clara
Favorites covered this bowl five of last seven years; average total last five years is 60.4. Michigan State lost two of last three games, scoring only 6-6-14 points; Spartans? last seven games stayed under total- they completed less than half their passes in last three games. Oregon is 8-1 when it scores 30+ points, 0-3 when it doesn?t; five of their last seven games stayed under total. Ducks are 2-5 this season in games with a single digit spread. MSU won four of last five bowls, beating two Pac-12 teams; Ducks lost last three bowls, giving up 42.3 ppg.

Liberty Bowl, Memphis
Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in this bowl last five years, with average total, 59.2. SEC teams won this game four of last five years. Missouri won its last four games, scoring 39.8 ppg; Tigers have senior QB- they?re 0-3 when scoring less than 30 points. Oklahoma State lost five of last seven games after a 4-1 start; they allowed 31+ points in last seven games. Four of last five Mizzou games stayed under. Missouri won three of last four bowls, none of which were decided by fewer than 10 points; OSU won three of last four bowls; they were underdog in three of those games.

Holiday Bowl, San Diego
Utah coach Whittingham is 11-1 in bowl games; Utah scored 33.2 ppg in winning last five bowls. Northwestern is 4-10 all-time in bowls but 3-1 in last four, winning 31-24/24-23 last two years; Underdogs covered this game five of last six games; Big 14 teams won this game last three years. Northwestern won seven of last nine games after a 1-3 start; Wildcats are 6-2 vs spread as an underdog- five of their last seven games stayed under total. Utah won seven of last nine games after a 2-2 start; Utes are 8-0 this season when they score more than 24 points.

Gator Bowl, Jacksonville
Favorites covered three of last four Gator Bowls, with SEC teams winning three of those games. Average total in last five Gator Bowls is 53.2. NC State won last three games, scoring 52-34-58 points; Wolfpack is 3-3 in games with single digit spread. Texas A&M won its last three games, winning last game in seven OT?s; Aggies are 2-3 in games with single digit spread. State won three of last four bowls, winning last two years, 41-17/52-31. A&M lost last three bowls, by 6-5-3 points; average totals in Aggies? last five bowls is 79.6. State (+11) upset Jimbo Fisher?s Florida St squad 27-21 in Tallahassee LY.

 

[Cnotes53]

Miami coach Richt announces retirement
December 30, 2018
By The Associated Press

CORAL GABLES, Fla. (AP) Manny Diaz woke up Sunday morning as the coach at Temple.

And then the phone rang.

What happened over the next 12 hours or so represented perhaps the most whirlwind day of his career, and certainly one of the wildest days in the history of Miami football. Mark Richt stunned the program by retiring as coach Sunday morning, the school gathered itself to begin a search for his replacement a few hours later, and before the day was done Diaz was announced as the new leader of the Hurricanes.

''I never saw this coming,'' Diaz said. ''No one did.''

The Hurricanes' defensive coordinator for the past three seasons agreed to a five-year contract to take over the program, and Miami's new coach never truly left Miami. Diaz took the job as Temple coach earlier this month, remained at Miami to coach his defense one last time in the Pinstripe Bowl last week - and was prepping for the move to Philadelphia.

Cancel that truck.

The Turnover Chain is staying in Miami, and so is the guy who came up with college football's best piece of sideline schtick.

''Miami is home,'' Diaz said, a native of the city where his father once was Mayor. ''The University of Miami is home. The U has truly been `the job' for me since I first got into coaching. Having worked here over the past three years, I came to understand what it means to be part of `The U' and came to appreciate the passion and commitment to excellence of all who proudly call themselves Canes.

''We will restore the football program to its place among the nation's elite and we will do it with hard work, dedicated coaches, and outstanding student-athletes.''

Players were told Sunday night, and were thrilled.

''I give this coach all my respect,'' Miami running back Camron Davis said.

Temple was not so thrilled, though athletic director Patrick Kraft released a statement wishing Diaz well.

''We are disappointed that he is leaving, but wish him the best as he returns home,'' Kraft said.

It's the second time that Miami has technically hired Temple's coach away from the Owls: The Hurricanes brought in Al Golden from there in 2010, and eventually replaced him with Richt in 2015.

Richt got Miami to its first Atlantic Coast Conference championship game last season, after starting that year 10-0 and rising to No. 2 in the AP Top 25. But the Hurricanes are 7-9 since, went 7-6 this season, were blown out by Wisconsin in the Pinstripe Bowl on Thursday night and were horrendous on offense at times in 2018 - totaling just 100 passing yards in their last two games of the season.

When announcing his retirement, Richt said he wants Miami to experience greatness again and that he decided someone else would have to lead the Hurricanes there.

So he stepped down, days after the end of an underachieving season and with five years left on his contract.

''My love for The U is simply great,'' Richt said. ''My true desire is for our football program to return to greatness, and while terribly difficult, I feel that stepping down is in the best interests of the program.''

James and Richt spoke Saturday about the direction of the program. James said there was no indication that Richt would retire during that conversation, though he declined to offer specifics about what was said.

''I wanted Mark to be our coach,'' James said Sunday at a news conference. ''Last night, I thought he was our coach.''

Richt's son, quarterbacks coach Jon Richt, was a frequent target of fan criticism. James wouldn't say if he asked Richt to make a change involving his son.

''I don't think it's a secret to anyone here that as a program offensively we hadn't operated at the level that any one of us would want including Mark, and we talked about what we need to look at and do differently,'' James said. ''Mark is a very smart guy and he recognized that things needed to change on that side of the ball.''

Through Saturday, Miami was ranked fifth nationally in total defense this season and 18th in scoring defense out of the 130 teams at the FBS level. The Hurricanes were 67th in scoring offense, 104th in total offense and 112th in passing offense - all areas in which Miami expected to excel when it hired Richt back to lead his alma mater.

Earlier in 2018, Richt signed an extension that would have kept him at Miami through 2023. But this year clearly took a toll - Miami lost four straight games midway through the season, with Richt calling that time ''probably the most difficult time that I have been through as a coach.''

Richt said he was not forced out. He was 26-13 at Miami, and 171-64 in 18 seasons between Georgia and the Hurricanes.

''The decision came after a great deal of thought, discussions with my family, and prayer,'' Richt said. ''This was my decision.''

The 58-year-old Richt told his staff Sunday morning that he was retiring and informed James of his decision around the same time. With players away for the holiday break, Richt and James alerted them by text and email shortly before the school issued a news release.

James said around 3:30 p.m. that a nationwide search was underway.

Turns out, he didn't need to look far.

''Manny is one of the nation's elite coaches and the Canes' Family has already embraced him and his incredible work ethic over the past three years,'' James said. ''He is absolutely the passionate and innovative leader that our program needs, and we will work together to build an incredible staff to move our program back into championship contention.''

Diaz also apologized to Temple for the bizarre circumstances.

''I hate the way this unfolded with respect to Temple,'' Diaz said. ''I was given a tremendous opportunity to lead the Temple program and I was actively engaged in doing just that when I woke up this morning. ... I do hope that the Temple players, administration and fans appreciate the uniqueness of this situation and the overwhelming pull to stay home.''

 

[Cnotes53]

Monday, December 31

Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Virginia Tech is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 6 games
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games

Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Stanford Cardinal
Stanford is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Stanford is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Stanford's last 5 game

Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan State is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 5 games
Oregon Ducks
Oregon is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Oregon is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon's last 7 game

Missouri Tigers
Missouri is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Missouri is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Missouri's last 5 games
Missouri is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma State
Missouri is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State's last 5 games
Oklahoma State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Missouri
Oklahoma State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Missouri

Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northwestern's last 7 games
Utah Utes
Utah is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Utah is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

NC State Wolfpack
North Carolina State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Texas A&M is 6-2 SU in its last 8 game


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Monday, December 31

Virginia Tech Hokies
Virginia Tech is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Virginia Tech is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 6 games
Cincinnati Bearcats
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games

Pittsburgh Panthers
Pittsburgh is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Stanford Cardinal
Stanford is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Stanford is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Stanford's last 5 game

Michigan State Spartans
Michigan State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Michigan State is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Michigan State's last 5 games
Oregon Ducks
Oregon is 4-9 ATS in its last 13 games
Oregon is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon's last 7 game

Missouri Tigers
Missouri is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Missouri is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Missouri's last 5 games
Missouri is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma State
Missouri is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State Cowboys
Oklahoma State is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oklahoma State's last 5 games
Oklahoma State is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Missouri
Oklahoma State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Missouri

Northwestern Wildcats
Northwestern is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northwestern's last 7 games
Utah Utes
Utah is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games
Utah is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

NC State Wolfpack
North Carolina State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games
Texas A&M is 6-2 SU in its last 8 game


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December 31

Military Bowl, Annapolis
Virginia Tech (+2.5) beat Cincinnati 33-17 in this bowl four years ago, but both teams have new coaches since then; underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in last five Military Bowls that didn?t involve host school Navy. Average total in this bowl last five years is 59.8. Cincinnati won four of last five games, are 2-3 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Virginia Tech won its last two games, scoring 34-41 points, after losing their previous four games. Hokies won three of last four bowls; Cincy is in its first bowl since ?15- they lost last three bowls, by 22-16-35 yards.

Sun Bowl, El Paso
Favorites covered four of last five Sun Bowls, with average total of 57.2 in those games. Stanford won this game two years ago, beating North Carolina 25-23. Cardinal won last three games after a 5-4 start; they?re 5-3-1 vs spread in games with single digit spread. Seven of last nine Stanford games went over total; four of last five Pitt games stayed under. Panthers lost last two games, 24-3/42-10; they?re 5-4 as an underdog. Cardinal won three of last four bowls, with last two both decided by two points. Pittsburgh lost their last three bowls, giving up 36.7 ppg.

Red Box Bowl, Santa Clara
Favorites covered this bowl five of last seven years; average total last five years is 60.4. Michigan State lost two of last three games, scoring only 6-6-14 points; Spartans? last seven games stayed under total- they completed less than half their passes in last three games. Oregon is 8-1 when it scores 30+ points, 0-3 when it doesn?t; five of their last seven games stayed under total. Ducks are 2-5 this season in games with a single digit spread. MSU won four of last five bowls, beating two Pac-12 teams; Ducks lost last three bowls, giving up 42.3 ppg.

Liberty Bowl, Memphis
Underdogs are 3-2 vs spread in this bowl last five years, with average total, 59.2. SEC teams won this game four of last five years. Missouri won its last four games, scoring 39.8 ppg; Tigers have senior QB- they?re 0-3 when scoring less than 30 points. Oklahoma State lost five of last seven games after a 4-1 start; they allowed 31+ points in last seven games. Four of last five Mizzou games stayed under. Missouri won three of last four bowls, none of which were decided by fewer than 10 points; OSU won three of last four bowls; they were underdog in three of those games.

Holiday Bowl, San Diego
Utah coach Whittingham is 11-1 in bowl games; Utah scored 33.2 ppg in winning last five bowls. Northwestern is 4-10 all-time in bowls but 3-1 in last four, winning 31-24/24-23 last two years; Underdogs covered this game five of last six games; Big 14 teams won this game last three years. Northwestern won seven of last nine games after a 1-3 start; Wildcats are 6-2 vs spread as an underdog- five of their last seven games stayed under total. Utah won seven of last nine games after a 2-2 start; Utes are 8-0 this season when they score more than 24 points.

Gator Bowl, Jacksonville
Favorites covered three of last four Gator Bowls, with SEC teams winning three of those games. Average total in last five Gator Bowls is 53.2. NC State won last three games, scoring 52-34-58 points; Wolfpack is 3-3 in games with single digit spread. Texas A&M won its last three games, winning last game in seven OT?s; Aggies are 2-3 in games with single digit spread. State won three of last four bowls, winning last two years, 41-17/52-31. A&M lost last three bowls, by 6-5-3 points; average totals in Aggies? last five bowls is 79.6. State (+11) upset Jimbo Fisher?s Florida St squad 27-21 in Tallahassee LY.


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Monday, December 31

Virginia Tech @ Cincinnati

Game 257-258
December 31, 2018 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Virginia Tech
87.606
Cincinnati
91.151
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cincinnati
by 3 1/2
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Cincinnati
by 5 1/2
53 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Virginia Tech
(+5 1/2); Under

Pittsburgh @ Stanford

Game 259-260
December 31, 2018 @ 2:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Pittsburgh
89.637
Stanford
100.985
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Stanford
by 11 1/2
57
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Stanford
by 6 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
Stanford
(-6 1/2); Over

Michigan State @ Oregon

Game 261-262
December 31, 2018 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Michigan State
91.319
Oregon
95.669
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oregon
by 4 1/2
44
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oregon
by 1 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Oregon
(-1 1/2); Under

Oklahoma State @ Missouri

Game 253-264
December 31, 2018 @ 3:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Oklahoma State
94.214
Missouri
105.211
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Missouri
by 11
48
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Missouri
by 7 1/2
74 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Missouri
(-7 1/2); Under

Northwestern @ Utah

Game 265-266
December 31, 2018 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Northwestern
92.748
Utah
97.974
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 5
49
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 7
45
Dunkel Pick:
Northwestern
(+7); Over

NC State @ Texas A&M

Game 267-268
December 31, 2018 @ 7:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
NC State
92.620
Texas A&M
102.737
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Texas A&M
by 10
54
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Texas A&M
by 4 1/2
58 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Texas A&M
(-4 1/2); Under


****************************



MONDAY, DECEMBER 31

Matchup Skinny Edge

VIRGINIA TECH vs. CINCINNATI (Military Bowl)...Hokies were on a 6-game spread skid this season before winning and covering last two to salvage bowl streak (now 26 straight). VPI only 3-6 as dog since last season. Bearcats only covered 2 of last 6 this campaign after starting 5-1 vs. line. Cincy no wins or covers last three in bowls (though not since 2015).
Slight to Virginia Tech, based on extended trends.

PITTSBURGH vs. STANFORD (Sun Bowl)...Pitt had a 6-game cover streak prior to last two games of season. Panthers 5-3 as dog this season, and Narduzzi 11-6 last 17 getting points. Pitt however 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls. Stanford 3-1 SU, 3-0-1 vs. spread last four bowls, closed season on 4-1-1 spread uptick. Tree 6-1-1 vs. number last 8 away from Farm, and one of only two Pac-12 teams to cover spread in bowls last year.
Stanford, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN STATE vs. OREGON (Redbox Santa Clara Bowl)...MSU only 4-8 vs. line this season and Dantonio 2-3 as dog after 7-4 mark as short entering 2018. Spartans just 6-9 vs. number last 15 away from East Lansing, though Dantonio 5-1 SU and vs. spread last six bowls. Ducks only 4-7-1 vs. spread this season and are 0-3 SU and vs. line last three bowls. Webfoots 2-8-2 last 12 vs. line against non-Pac 12 foes.
Michigan State, based on team trends.

MISSOURI vs. OKLAHOMA STATE (Liberty Bowl)...Mizzou just 2-5 vs. spread last seven away from Columbia (though did cover last two away TY). Tigers 3-5 vs. line against non-SEC BS-level foes since last season. Gundy was 4-0 as dog this season, 10-3 in role since 2015, and has won and covered 3 of last 4 bowls.
Oklahoma State, based on team trends.

NORTHWESTERN vs. UTAH (Holiday Bowl)...Underdog side was 11-1-1 in NU games this season with Cats 5-1-1 as short. Pat Fitz has won SU last two bowls but just 1-2 last 3. Kyle Whittingham 10-1 SU in bowls, 8-3 vs. line in those, and 11-6 vs. spread last 17 away from Salt Lake City.
Slight to Utah, based on bowl trends.

NC STATE vs. TEXAS A&M (Gator Bowl)...Pack has won and covered last two and 3 of last 4 bowl games. Pack 4-1 vs. spread last five vs. non-ACC. Jimbo 8-4 vs. line TY but just 2-3 vs. points away from home, and only 1-3 last 4 bowls while at FSU.
Slight to NC State, based on team trends.


****************************


MONDAY, DECEMBER 31
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CIN at VT 12:00 PM
VT +6.5
U 51.0

STAN at PITT 02:00 PM
STAN -3.5
U 51.5

MSU at ORE 03:00 PM
MSU +1.5
O 45.0

MIZZ at OKST 03:45 PM
OKST +9.5
O 71.0

NW at UTAH 07:00 PM
NW +6.5
U 44.0

NCST at TAM 07:30 PM
TAM -7.0
O 56.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Top 6 picks for Week 17 of Westgate SuperBook NFL handicapping contest:

1) Colts, -3 (972)- W

2) Browns, +6 (904)- W

3) Bills, -3.5 (847)- W

4) Eagles, -6.5 (800)- W

5) Vikings, -4.5 (758)- L

6) Texans, -6.5 (670)- W

Final season record: 56-45-3


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Cowboys 36, Giants 35? Not sure why Dallas played QB Prescott whole game, but they did and WR Beasley made a great catch with 1:12 left to win this game. Cowboys host Seattle next week; they?re in playoffs for only third time in last nine years.

Giants split their last eight games, scoring 27+ points in four of last five; six of those eight games were decided by four of fewer points. Big Blue lost nine of its last 11 games with Dallas.

Ravens 26, Browns 24? Baltimore was 4-5 and everyone assumed John Harbaugh was history, but they started rookie QB Jackson after their bye week and went on a 6-1 run that won them a division title. Ravens led this game 20-7 at halftime, then hung on for dear life; Browns had ball on their 40-yard line in last 1:20, but couldn?t get in field goal range.

Cleveland finished 7-8-1, their best record in 11 years; Mayfield is entrenched as their QB, and if you watched Hard Knocks this past summer, that probably surprises you. Good for them, but it sounds like Cleveland is going hire Mike McCarthy as head coach, instead of Gregg Williams.

Ravens host Chargers in playoffs next week; they upset Bolts 22-10 in Carson last week.

There was huge call in Ravens? favor in last 2:00 of first half; Jackson fumbled near goal line, but whistle blew while Browns were running ball back for TD. That call may have kept Steelers out of the playoffs.

Colts 33, Titans 17? Colts bounced back from 1-5 start to make playoffs for first time in four years. Indy visits Houston next week; they split a pair of 3-point decisions with the Texans this season. In second half of season, Colts were 4-0 in games decided by 3 or fewer points.

Mariota didn?t play, Titans didn?t win; Tennessee finished 9-7 for third year in row; they fired Mike Mularkey after he made playoffs LY, but Vrabel didn?t make playoffs this year, despite winning four of last five games.

Patriots 38, Jets 3? Bill Belichick has been the Patriots? coach since 2000; Jets fired Todd Bowles after the game. Patriots are #2 seed in AFC; as for rest of AFC East since 2000??..

? Buffalo coaches: Phillips, Williams, Mularkey, Jauron, Gailey, Marrone, Ryan, McDermott
? Miami coaches: Wannstedt, Saban, Cameron, Sparano, Philbin, Gase.
? Jets coaches: Groh, Edwards, Mangini, Ryan, Bowles.

Eagles 24, Redskins 0? Philly outgained Redskins 360-89, held Washington to 8 first downs, 0-9 on third down plays. Eagles made playoffs when the Bears won in Minnesota; they visit Chicago in first round game next week. Foles re-injured his ribs, didn?t finish this game, but defending Super Bowl champs won five of their last six games.

Redskins started season 5-2, but were ravaged by injuries; they scored 16 or fewer points in their last five games, starting four QB?s in their last seven games.

Bears 24, Vikings 10? Chicago won/covered nine of last ten games; in their last four games, they allowed only two offensive TD?s on 41 drives. Bears host Philly in playoffs next week.

Since 2004, Minnesota has had 11 different QB?s; Zimmer fired his OC during the season this year. Vikings are 47-32-1 under Zimmer, but he needs to get his offense in order next year.

Texans 20, Jaguars 3? Houston won 11 of last 13 games; they host Colts in playoffs next week. Texans are in playoffs for fifth time in last eight years.

Jacksonville went 10-6 LY and made playoffs for first time in decade; they lost 3-9 in last 12 games, scoring 17 or fewer points in last five games. Kyler Murray would look very good in a Jacksonville uniform next fall.

Falcons 34, Buccaneers 32? Atlanta swept the Bucs this year, scoring 34 points in both games; Falcons showed some grit, winning last three games after a 4-9 start. Average total in last six games in this series is 59.2.

Tampa Bay fired Dirk Koetter after the game; kind of unfair to keep the GM and fire the coach when the QB is the guy who got suspended for off-field hijinx which threw the Bucs? offense into disarray. Buccaneers haven?t made the playoffs since 2007- they were -18 in turnovers TY.

Bills 42, Dolphins 17? Miami went 4-9 after starting season 3-0; they lost their last seven road games, and were 2-6 as road underdogs this year. Dolphins converted 10 of last 50 plays on third down; I?m really not sure why they?re so committed to Tannehill as their QB.

Buffalo is 8-4 in its last dozen games with Miami, winning six of last seven series games played here; they outgained Dolphins 796-400 in two meetings this season, but split the games.

Steelers 16, Bengals 13? Pittsburgh misses playoff for first time in five years; they lost four of their last six games- four of their last five games were decided by exactly three points.

Bengals were one of six teams not to score an offensive TD this week; Cincy lost nine of its last 11 games, missing playoffs for third year in row. Bengals haven?t won a playoff game since 1991.

Chargers 23, Broncos 9? 12-4 Chargers didn?t win AFC West, so they?re going to Baltimore for first-round playoff game this week; they were upset 22-10 at home by Ravens in Week 16. LA won five of its last six games overall. Chargers are 7-0 outside of LA this season.

Denver finishes with consecutive losing season for first time since 70?s; have to think they?re going to be changing head coaches this winter.

Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24? Seahawks won six of last seven games, will visit Dallas in most interesting of the four playoff games next week; their last seven games with Arizona were all decided by 6 or fewer points. Cardinals had won their last three visits to Seattle.

There are rumors that Arizona will fire HC Wilks after only one year; would be second year in row that the coach QB Josh Rosen played for got fired? his coach at UCLA (Jim Mora) got the boot after last season. Redbirds should hire a QB guru to tutor young Rosen.

Arizona gets the #1 pick in drat for first time since 1958, when they were based in Chicago; that year, Redbirds took QB King Hill with first pick- he started only 29 games in 12 years, and most of those were for the Eagles.

Rams 48, 49ers 32? 49ers turned ball over on their first three drives; on their first two drives, Rams started on SF 7 and SF 13-yard line, scoring TD?s both times. 49ers went 0-8 on road this year for first time since 1979, the year the Rams made Super Bowl for the first time.

LA gets a first-round bye and will host a playoff game on January 12th, a Saturday night.

Lions 31, Packers 0? Six highest-paid QB?s in the NFL missed playoffs this year:
? Aaron Rodgers: $33.5M
? Matt Ryan: $30M
? Kirk Cousins: $28M
? Jimmy Garoppolo: $27.5M
? Matthew Stafford: $27M
? Derek Carr: $25M

Chiefs 35, Raiders 3? Oakland was 12-4 only two years ago, but things change quickly in the NFL- they went 10-22 the last two seasons. If I was paying a coach $100M over ten years, I?d have expected more than a 4-12 first season. Here is the draft order for April?s draft:

1) Cardinals
2) 49ers
3) Jets
4) Raiders
5) Buccaneers
6) Giants

Panthers 33, Saints 14? The game meant nothing for New Orleans and it showed, since Drew Brees was in street clothes. Teddy Bridgewater is a free agent this winter, so the game meant a lot to him; have feeling he?ll be a starter somewhere in NFL next season.

Carolina snapped a 7-game skid here; Ron Rivera will return as coach next season. Had they lost this game, Panthers would?ve been first team ever to finish season 6-10 after having been 6-2.

 

[Cnotes53]

OK State tops Missouri in Liberty Bowl
December 31, 2018
By The Associated Press

MEMPHIS, Tenn. (AP) Taylor Cornelius tied a Liberty Bowl record with four touchdown passes and Kolby Peel made a critical fourth-down stop with 1:01 left as Oklahoma State edged No. 24 Missouri 38-33 in the Liberty Bowl on Monday.

Missouri (8-5) faced fourth-and-1 when quarterback Drew Lock attempted a keeper around the right end. Peel made an ankle tackle that stopped Lock short of the first-down marker.

That allowed Oklahoma State (7-6) to hang on to win a game it had led 35-19 heading into the fourth quarter. The Cowboys snapped Missouri's four-game winning streak.

Cornelius, a fifth-year senior and former walk-on, went 26 of 44 with four touchdown passes and two interceptions by Cam Hilton that sparked Missouri's comeback try. Both interceptions led to Missouri touchdowns.

Missouri's Larry Rountree III ran for 204 yards, including a 55-yard touchdown. Missouri's Johnathon Johnson had nine catches for 185 yards, including an 86-yard score. Lock was 23 of 38 for 373 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions.

Chuba Hubbard rushed for 145 yards and a touchdown for Oklahoma State. Tyron Johnson had seven catches for 141 yards and two touchdowns.

HOLIDAY BOWL

NORTHWESTERN 31, NO. 20 UTAH

SAN DIEGO (AP) - Northwestern converted three Utah turnovers into 21 points in a dizzying nine-minute stretch in the pouring rain in the third quarter of the Holiday Bowl, including Jared McGee's 82-yard fumble return for a touchdown, to stun the 20th-ranked Utes.

The Wildcats (9-5) scored 28 points in the third quarter to win their third straight bowl game under coach Pat Fitzgerald. The Green Bay Packers reportedly want to interview Fitzpatrick for their head coaching job.

Senior Clayton Thorson became the all-time leading passer for Northwestern, going 21 of 30 for 241 yards for 10,731 career yards. He broke Brett Basanez's school record of 10,580. Thorson threw for two touchdowns and was intercepted once in making his 53rd straight start for the Wildcats, the most by a quarterback in Big Ten history. He is the program's all-time winningest quarterback at 36-17. He was replaced after taking a hard shot midway through the fourth quarter.

Utah (9-5) cruised to a 20-3 halftime lead behind redshirt freshman quarterback Jason Shelley before it all fell apart in the third quarter. Shelley had two interceptions and a fumble.

Shelley was making his fourth start in place of Tyler Huntley, who broke his collarbone against Arizona State on Nov. 3.

GATOR BOWL

NO. 21 TEXAS A&M 53, NORTH CAROLINA STATE 13

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. (AP) - Trayveon Williams ran for 236 yards and three touchdowns, smashing a 30-year-old school record and carrying No. 21 Texas A&M past North Carolina State.

The Aggies ended 2018 with a four-game winning streak and broke a three-game postseason skid.

It capped an impressive inaugural season for coach Jimbo Fisher in Aggieland.

Williams had 61 yards rushing in the first half and then got rolling in the third quarter. He carried five times for 82 yards on one drive, including a 17-yard touchdown run. He topped that with a 93-yard scoring run on Texas A&M's ensuing drive.

Kellen Mond completed 14 of 26 passes for 140 yards, with a touchdown and an interception. Mond also ran five times for 85 yards and a score. Kendrick Rogers made a leaping, 6-yard catch in the back of the end zone to help Mond.

Ryan Finley, a senior playing his final game, completed 19 of 32 passes for 139 yards. He threw a touchdown passes and two interceptions.

SUN BOWL

STANFORD 14, PITTSBURGH 13

EL PASO, Texas (AP) - Cameron Scarlett scored on a 1-yard run and recovered a fumble in the end zone for a second score to lead Stanford past Pittsburgh.

The Cardinal (9-4) finished on a four-game winning streak, much the same way they did two years ago when Stanford won the Sun Bowl for a season-ending six-game streak.

The Panthers (7-7) lost their fourth straight bowl game and sixth in the past seven after falling to playoff championship finalist Clemson in the ACC title game.

Pitt, which had a 10-7 halftime lead and was up 13-7 early in the fourth quarter, was led by tailback Darrin Hall, who had 16 carries for 123 yards and a score.

Stanford's offense, which had struggled all day, finally got going in the fourth quarter.

Scarlett had 91 yards on 21 carries in place of tailback Bryce Love, who decided to skip the bowl game to rehab an ankle injury ahead of the NFL draft. Love was the second Stanford back to do that in the past three Sun Bowls.

REDBOX BOWL

OREGON 7, MICHIGAN STATE 6

SANTA CLARA, Calif. (AP) - Justin Herbert shook off a sluggish day and threw a touchdown pass to Dillon Mitchell in the fourth quarter, and Oregon held on after Michigan State botched a field goal attempt.

Herbert passed for 166 yards and extended his streak of consecutive games with a touchdown pass to 28 on a day when the Ducks' offense mostly sputtered.

Oregon (9-4) crossed midfield only three times and couldn't get into the end zone until Herbert found Mitchell in the right front of the end zone for a 28-yard touchdown. The Ducks' defense held up from there but got some help from Michigan State's special teams.

Spartans quarterback Brian Lewerke completed 22 of 40 passes for 172 yards with one interception. It's the third time in four games that Michigan State (7-6) has failed to score a touchdown.

Running back LJ Scott ran for 84 yards on 24 carries, ending his injury-riddled season with the Spartans on a high note after being limited to five games. The senior running back declined to redshirt this year and declared for the NFL draft in early December.

Matt Goghlin kicked a pair of 34-yard field goals but he also missed one from 50.

It was Oregon's first bowl victory since beating Florida State in the 2015 Rose Bowl.

MILITARY BOWL

CINCINNATI 35, VIRGINIA TECH 31

ANNAPOLIS, Md. (AP) - Michael Warren ran for a career-high 166 yards and scored the go-ahead touchdown with 1:29 left in a soggy Military Bowl as Cincinnati ended Virginia Tech's run of 25 consecutive winning seasons.

A tight game that featured more than 900 yards in offense and seven lead changes wasn't decided until Warren busted up the middle for his second touchdown to cap a 64-yard drive directed by backup quarterback Hayden Moore.

Moore, a senior who made 12 starts last year, took over for injured starter Desmond Ridder in the first quarter and completed 11 of 25 passes for 120 yards. He had previously thrown only 26 passes in 2018.

The victory gave Cincinnati (11-2) its third 11-win season in the 131-year history of the program.

Playing in a bowl game for the 26th successive year - the longest current run in the nation - Virginia Tech needed a victory to avoid its first losing season since 1992. Ryan Willis threw two touchdown passes and ran for another score, but it wasn't enough for the Hokies (6-7).

 

[Cnotes53]

2018-2019 College Bowl Record - Opinions and Best Bets !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS
.
12/31/2018 7-4-1 63.64% +13.00
12/29/2018 5-4-1 55.56% +3.00
12/28/2018 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
12/27/2018 5-1-0 83.33% +19.50
12/26/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
12/22/2018 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
12/21/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/20/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
12/19/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/18/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/15/2018 4-6-0 40.00% -13.00

TOTAL............31-33-0.......48.43%.....-26.50


*********************************


DATE........................ATS................... UNITS..................O/U....................UNITS.................TOTAL

12/31/2018.............5 - 1.................+14.50.................2 - 1.....................+4.50...............+19.00
12/29/2018.............2 - 2.................-1.00....................1 - 1.....................-0.50................-1.50
12/28/2018.............2 - 1.................+4.50...................0 - 3.....................-16.50..............-12.00
12/27/2018.............2 - 1.................+4.50...................3 - 0....................+15.00..............+19.50
12/26/2018.............0 - 2..................-11.00..................1 - 2....................-6.00.................-17.00
12/22/2018.............2 - 2..................-1.00....................2 - 2....................-1.00.................-2.00
12/21/2018.............1 - 1..................-0.50....................1 - 1....................-0.50.................-1.00
12/20/2018.............1 - 0.................+5.00....................0 - 1....................-5.50.................-0.50
12/19/2018.............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1....................-5.50.................-11.00
12/18/2018.............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1....................-5.50.................-11.00
12/15/2018.............0 - 4..................-22.00..................3 - 2....................+4.00................-18.00

TOTAL...................15 - 16................-18.00.................13 - 15..................-17.50...............-35.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday?s 6-pack

NBA?s top six players in 3-point %age:

6) Bojan Bogdanovic, Pacers 46%

5) Derrick Rose, Wolves 46.2%

4) Danilo Gallinari, LAC 46.4%

3) Davis Bertans, Spurs 48%

2) Joe Harris, Nets 48.3%

1) Seth Curry, Trailblazers 50%

Quote of the Day
?Throughout my career as an athletic director, I have maintained a belief that making a head coaching change during a season is rarely in the best interests of our student-athletes or program.?
UCLA AD Dan Guerrero, who fired his basketball coach anyway on Monday

Tuesday?s quiz
Where did Shaquille O?Neal play his college basketball?

Monday?s quiz
Fred Dalton Thompson played a DA on Law and Order for five years, then later ran for the Republican nomination for President in 2008.

Sunday?s quiz
In the great TV show M*A*S*H*, Hawkeye Pierce?s real name was Benjamin Franklin Pierce.

*****************************

Tuesday?s List of 13; Happy New Year, everyone!!!!

13) This is the first NFL season ever where no team finished 8-8; NFL went to the 16-game schedule in 1978, with two seasons since then shortened by work stoppages.

12) Eight NFL head coaches were fired Sunday/Monday, 25% of the league?s coaches.

11) Steelers? star WR Antonio Brown missed Sunday?s game with the Bengals, but apparently he wasn?t hurt, he was being disciplined after an incident in practice with a teammate, who was Ben Rothlisberger. Witnesses say it was a fairly ugly incident.

Sounds like it was an unhappy year in Pittsburgh, with Le?Veon Bell?s holdout and the coach screwing up game management situations and now Brown at odds with teammates. Throw in the defensive coordinator not knowing that Bengals? TE Tyler Eifurt was hurt back in October, and it wouldn?t be surprising if whole lot of people were let go Monday, but they weren?t.

10) Oakland Raiders hired NFL Network analyst Mike Mayock as its GM; Mayock has been contributing to NFL Network and NFL.com since 2004, mostly in scouting, but he?s never worked in an NFL front office before.

Raiders have three first round draft picks in April and $100M in cap room to work with.

9) UCLA?s basketball team is 7-6 and has lost its last four games, which cost Steve Alford his job Monday. Bruins lost at home to Belmont, Liberty- those teams are both ranked in the top 80, but the coaching change was made, even before conference play begins. Our society isn?t terribly patient. Alford is a good guy; not sure why a move had to be made right now.

Alford/UCLA never seemed like a great match; will be fascinating to see where Bruins set their sights for a new coach. Murry Bartow is the interim coach; his father Gene was the coach who replaced John Wooden at UCLA, and who later started UAB?s basketball program.

Would Billy Donovan have any interest in the UCLA job? I?d have to ask, if I?m UCLA.

8) Mark Richt was fired as football coach at Miami; official word was ?retired?, but guys don?t quit jobs like that. Richt is 58, would be curious to hear him on TV, hopefully learn from him.

Houston fired coach Major Applewhite; Dana Holgorsen has been mentioned as a potential target for the Cougars, but how is Houston a better job than West Virginia? Kliff Kingsbury has apparently turned down ?a lucrative offer? from Houston to stay on as an assistant at USC.

7) Manny Diaz left as DC at Miami to become head coach at Temple, but when Richt retired (or was fired), Diaz quickly bolted Temple and is now the head coach at Miami. Oy.

6) Ole Miss signed former Michigan/Arizona coach Rich Rodriguez as its new OC, joining former Colorado coach Mike MacIntyre as its new DC, giving the Rebels an impressive staff around relatively inexperienced head coach Matt Luke.

6) This from the Grand Forks Herald:

Dan Shrader is a 38-year old full-time sanitation worker in the Minneapolis/St Paul area, who spends 50 hours a week driving a daily garbage route, dumping trash at the landfill and helping manage a 32-truck fleet.

He never played in the NHL, he never played college or pro hockey, he never played organized hockey growing up, period, but he is an amateur scout for the Winnipeg Jets, in charge of watching the Minnesota region for prospects. Pretty good second job for a garbageman.

If you like something a lot and work hard enough at it, all things are possible.

5) Hartford 79, Boston College 78 OT? ACC teams shouldn?t lose to America East teams.

4) City of Toronto had free bus/subway service from 7pm-7am New Year?s Eve, which is really good. More cities should do that; the less people who drive on New Year?s Eve, the better.

3) Stanford 14, Pittsburgh 13? Condoleeza Rice was on the Stanford sidelines for this game; not sure if she was auditioning for a coaching job or not. Pitt finishes year 7-7; always wondered if kids like enjoy going to El Paso for a bowl- seems like an unusual place for a bowl.

2) Oregon 7, Michigan State 6? In its last four games, Michigan State scored 6-6-14-6 points. That not good. Before Monday, last time they completed more than half their passes was October 27.

Mario Cristobal gets a bowl win in his first year at Oregon; it was Ducks? first bowl wins since 2014, in a season when they had their third HC in last three years.

1) Hope you guys out there all have a Happy New Year; thanks for reading. I?m hoping that 2019 will be a year when we all get along better and tolerate each other?s opinions more. Our diversity is part of what makes this country unique, in a good way.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday, January 1

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IOWA (8 - 4) vs. MISSISSIPPI ST (8 - 4) - 1/1/2019, 12:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSISSIPPI ST is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KENTUCKY (9 - 3) vs. PENN ST (9 - 3) - 1/1/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KENTUCKY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 25-13 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) after playing a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 18-3 ATS (+14.7 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
PENN ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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LSU (9 - 3) vs. UCF (12 - 0) - 1/1/2019, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UCF is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
UCF is 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
UCF is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
UCF is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive straight up wins this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (10 - 3) vs. OHIO ST (12 - 1) - 1/1/2019, 5:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OHIO ST is 190-146 ATS (+29.4 Units) in all games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 190-146 ATS (+29.4 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
OHIO ST is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) against Pac Twelve conference opponents since 1992.
OHIO ST is 120-87 ATS (+24.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
OHIO ST is 96-70 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TEXAS (9 - 4) vs. GEORGIA (11 - 2) - 1/1/2019, 8:45 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 10.5 to 21 points over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on a neutral field over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
GEORGIA is 33-12 ATS (+19.8 Units) in road games in non-conference games since 1992.
GEORGIA is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Tuesday, January 1

Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Iowa is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Iowa's last 5 games
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Mississippi State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Mississippi State's last 9 games

LSU Tigers
Louisiana State is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Louisiana State's last 9 games
UCF Knights
Central Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Central Florida's last 9 games

Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Kentucky is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kentucky's last 9 games
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State's last 5 games

Washington Huskies
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Washington's last 13 games
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio State's last 6 games

Texas Longhorns
Texas is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Texas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Texas's last 25 games
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Georgia is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Georgia's last 7 games


----------------------------------------------


Tuesday, January 1

Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Iowa is 10-4 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Iowa's last 5 games
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Mississippi State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Mississippi State's last 9 games

LSU Tigers
Louisiana State is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Louisiana State's last 9 games
UCF Knights
Central Florida is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Central Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Central Florida's last 9 games

Kentucky Wildcats
Kentucky is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
Kentucky is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kentucky's last 9 games
Penn State Nittany Lions
Penn State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Penn State's last 5 games

Washington Huskies
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games
Washington is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Washington's last 13 games
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ohio State is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games
Ohio State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Ohio State's last 6 games

Texas Longhorns
Texas is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Texas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Texas's last 25 games
Georgia Bulldogs
Georgia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Georgia is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Georgia's last 7 games


------------------------------------------------------


January 1

Outback Bowl, Tampa
Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in this bowl the last seven years; average total in last five is 45.8. SEC teams won this bowl five of last six years, all vs Big 14 teams. Iowa lost 21-14/30-3 in this bowl in ?13/?17, both to SEC teams; Hawkeyes snapped 5-game bowl skid with win in Pinstripe Bowl LY. Mississippi State won last three bowls, but that was with Mullen as coach- this is Moorhead?s first bowl as a HC. Iowa won its last two games after a 3-game skid, running ball for 203-266 yards vs Illinois/Nebraska- they?re +9 in turnovers their last eight games. Miss State won four of its last five games, allowing 13 or fewer points in all four wins- they held five of last six opponents under 300 TY. SEC teams covered six of last eight bowls when favored over a Big 14 opponent. Over is 8-2 in last 10 Iowa games; under is 8-1 in MSU?s last nine.

Citrus Bowl, Orlando
Favorites covered this bowl five of last seven years, with average total in last five, 46.4. SEC teams won this bowl five of last seven years. Big 14 teams are 1-4 in last five Citrus Bowls. Kentucky scored 34-56 points in winning its last two games (both outside SEC), after being held to 17 or fewer points in last five SEC games. Wildcats are 3-2 vs spread as underdogs this year, 2-3 in games with single digit spread. Kentucky is 7-0 this season when they score more than 17 points. PSU won its last three games, allowing total of 20 points; they?re 6-4 vs spread as a favorite. Kentucky lost its last four bowls, scoring 16 ppg; their last bowl win was in ?08. Penn State is 2-3 in its last five bowls, all as underdogs- last time they were favored in a bowl was in ?09. Three of last four Kentucky games went over; under is 6-2 in last eight Penn State games.

Fiesta Bowl, Glendale, AZ
Central Florida was 0-12 three years ago, but they?re 25-0 last two years, under two different coaches; Golden Knights are 4-3 vs spread in last seven games as underdogs, 0-0 this year; they were only single digit favorite three times this year, so they?re stepping up in class here. UCF is 3-2 in last five bowls, winning SU twice as double digit underdogs. UCF?s QB is out here with knee injury- the backup has thrown 70 passes TY. LSU is 3-2 in last five bowls (2-3 vs spread, all as favorites); Tigers are 4-3 in last seven games, losing last game in 7 OT?s to A&M. LSU is 4-1 this year in games with single digit spread. Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven Fiesta Bowls; UCF won this game as 16-point underdogs five years ago. Average total in last five Fiesta Bowls is 65.6. Six of last nine LSU games went over the total.

Rose Bowl, Pasadena
Favorites are 5-2 vs spread in last seven Rose Bowls; Pac-12 teams won five of last six visits here, with average total of 77.4 in last five. Winning side scored 45+ points in last four Rose Bowls. Big 14 teams lost four of their last five Rose Bowls. Washington won its last four games, giving up 16 ppg; under Petersen, Huskies are 5-6 vs spread as underdogs, 1-1 this year. Ohio State won its last five games, but allowed 31+ points in three of those games; Buckeyes are 2-1 in games with single digit spread this year. Washington was last in Rose Bowl in 2000; Huskies lost three of last four bowls, losing 24-7/35-28 last two years- they covered four of last six games as a bowl underdog. This is Ohio State?s first Rose Bowl since ?09, when they upset Oregon 26-17 (+4); Buckeyes won four of last five bowls. Under is 9-3 in Husky games, 0-3 in last three OSU games.

Sugar Bowl, New Orleans
Georgia (rightfully) thinks they should?ve been in national playoff, how do they react here? Dawgs won five of last six games, losing 35-28 to Alabama in SEC title game. Favorites won/covered last three Sugar Bowls; SEC teams lost this bowl four of last six years, with average total of 51 in last five. As a HC, Texas coach Herman is 8-2-1 vs spread when an underdog. 2-1-1 this year. Longhorns split their last six games after 5-1 start- they scored an average of 33 ppg in their four losses. Texas is 8-3 in its last 11 bowls; they upset Mizzou 33-16 (+3) LY, their first bowl in three years. Georgia lost national title game LY, just their second bowl loss in last seven tries. Dawgs are 4-3 vs spread as dole digit favorites this year. Last three Georgia games stayed under total; over is 3-1-1 in Georgia?s last five games.


------------------------------


Tuesday, January 1

Iowa @ Mississippi St

Game 269-270
January 1, 2019 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Iowa
99.769
Mississippi St
108.633
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Mississippi St
by 9
43
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Mississippi St
by 6
44 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Mississippi St
(-6); Under

Kentucky @ Penn State

Game 271-272
January 1, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Kentucky
94.093
Penn State
103.819
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Penn State
by 10
41
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Penn State
by 5 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Penn State
(-5 1/2); Under

LSU @ Central Florida

Game 273-274
January 1, 2019 @ 1:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LSU
98.042
Central Florida
102.635
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Central Florida
by 4 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LSU
by 8
55 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Central Florida
(+8); Under

Washington @ Ohio State

Game 275-276
January 1, 2019 @ 5:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
100.844
Ohio State
110.335
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Ohio State
by 9 1/2
76
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Ohio State
by 5
58
Dunkel Pick:
Ohio State
(-5); Over

Texas @ Georgia

Game 277-278
January 1, 2019 @ 8:45 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Texas
97.527
Georgia
116.019
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Georgia
by 18 1/2
63
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Georgia
by 10 1/2
58
Dunkel Pick:
Georgia
(-10 1/2); Over


-------------------------------------


TUESDAY, JANUARY 1

Matchup Skinny Edge

IOWA vs. MISSISSIPPI STATE (Outback Bowl)...Iowa 9-5 vs. line since late 2017, but Hawks 0-3 as dog in 2018. Ferentz 2-3 vs. spread last five bowls but has covered last four against non-Big Ten foes. Note Hawkeyes on 12-5 ?over? run. MSU 16-9 vs. line since last season, 8-4 TY for Moorhead.
Slight to Miss State, based on team trends.

KENTUCKY vs. PENN STATE (Citrus Bowl)...UK winless SU last four bowls but did cover in Music City vs. NU last year. Cats 4-1 as dog TY, Stoops 13-7 getting points since 2016. Penn State no covers last three away TY but James Franklin 3-1 vs. line in bowls for Nittany Lions, 5-2 vs. spread in bowls with Vandy years.
Slight to Kentucky, based on recent trends.

LSU vs. UCF (Fiesta Bowl)...Orgeron 2-5 as chalk this season, and LSU just 2-5 vs. spread last seven bowls (1-1 with Orgeron). UCF 4-2 vs. spread last six bowls, 10?3 vs. line since late last season, 5-1 last six vs. points away from home.
UCF, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON vs. OHIO STATE (Rose Bowl)...Huskies only 4-9 vs. line this season, 5-11 last 16 on board. Petersen 1-3 as dog since 2016. U-Dub 2-7 vs. line last 9 against non-Pac 12. Huskies 1-3 SU and vs. line in bowls for Petersen. Urban 4-2 SU and vs. line in bowls with Buckeyes, 10-3 SU and vs. line in bowls back to Utah days in 2003.
Ohio State, based on team trends.

TEXAS vs. GEORGIA (Sugar Bowl)...Tom Herman teams 12-2 as dog since 2015 with Houston. Herman 2-0 SU and vs. line in bowls. Georgia has covered last five playoff/bowl games, Kirby Smart 2-0 vs. line in those. Bulldogs on 13-5 spread uptick since late 2017.
Slight to Texas, based on Tom Herman dog trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tuesday's Early Bowl Tips
Joe Williams

**Iowa vs. Mississippi State**

Outback Bowl

-- The Iowa Hawkeyes (8-4 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) from the Big 10 Conference will square off against the Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4 straight up, 8-4 against the spread) from the Southeastern Conference in the Outback Bowl in Tampa, Fla.

-- Iowa will be playing in their sixth consecutive bowl game under head coach Kirk Ferentz, and their 16th since 2001 under his leadership. Their past two trips to the Outback Bowl haven't ended well, losing to Florida 30-3 in 2016, and 21-14 against LSU in 2013. This will be their sixth appearance in the Outback Bowl, posting a 2-3 SU record so far.

-- Mississippi State doesn't have as lengthy of a bowl history as Iowa, but they have had plenty of success when they have qualified. Mississippi State has won three straight bowls, and nine of their past 11 appearances in the postseason. This will be their first-ever appearance in the Outback Bowl in Tampa, although it will be their third consecutive bowl appearance in the Sunshine State. All-time they're 4-3 SU in seven bowl games in the state of Florida, including a 13-12 loss to Duquesne in 1936 in their first appearance in the Orange Bowl.

-- Mississippi State rolled out to a 3-0 SU/ATS start, holding a Top 25 ranking for the two of those weekends. However, back-to-back losses and offensive fizzles in a 28-7 loss to Kentucky and 13-6 loss to Florida spoiled that start. They lost three of four from Sept. 22 to Oct. 20, with only a win over Auburn to show for it. They finished up with four wins in the final five, with a shutout to National Championship Game participant Alabama as their only blemish. They routed Ole Miss 35-3 on Nov. 22 to secure their eighth victory of the season.

-- Iowa also opened 3-0 SU/ATS, including a win over rival Iowa State. They lost to Wisconsin on Sept. 22 with a 28-17 setback, but theyripped off three straight after that to get back on track and secure bowl eligibility by Oct. 20. That's a good thing, too, as they dropped three in a row at Penn State, at Purdue and home to Northwestern before wrapping up the year with back-to-back wins against Illinois and Nebraska.

-- Iowa had difficulty on offense, ranking 79th in total yards per game (389.7 YPG), while checking in 69th in passing yards (227.7 YPG) and 74th in rushing yards (162.0 YPG). Still, somehow they managed to end up 42nd in the country with 31.5 points per game (PPG). Defense was a key to their success, ranking seventh in total yards allowed (289.6 YPG), 21st in passing yards (186.8 YPG) and fourth in rushing yards allowed (102.8 YPG). They also checked in 10th in points allowed (17.4 PPG), which will be key to whether they can win or not.

-- Mississippi State ranked 69th in total yards (402.0 YPG), while going for 175.6 YPG in passing yards to check in 111th in the nation. They did pound the ball for 226.4 YPG on the ground, finishing 11th overall. Defensively Mississippi State had it on lockdown, ranking first in the country in total yards allowed (268.4 YPG) and points allowed (12.0 PPG). They also shut down the pass with 164.2 YPG, ranking sixth, and just 104.2 YPG in rushing yards to finish 10th in the land.

-- Iowa RB Ivory Kelly-Martin (undisclosed) is listed as probable for the bowl game, while the FB Brady Ross (leg) is questionable. TE Noah Fant, who declared for the NFL Draft, will skip the bowl game, too. Fant posted 49 catches for 518 yards and seven touchdowns.

-- Mississippi State DE Montez Sweat, who is expected to go in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft, will play and not skip the game.

-- Mississippi State is 4-1 ATS in the past five overall, 5-0 ATS in the past five non-conference games and 9-4 ATS in the past 13 against winning teams.

-- Iowa is 4-0 ATS in the past four non-conference games, but 1-3-1 ATS in the past five neutral-site games and 1-4 ATS in the past five overall.

-- The 'under' is 13-3 in the past 16 against teams with a winning record and 19-7 in the past 26 overall, too.

-- The 'over' is 8-2 in Iowa's past 10 games while going 7-2 in the past nine against teams with a winning record. However, the under is 7-3 in the past 10 non-conference games and 9-4 in the past 13 neutral-site battles.

-- This will be the first-ever meeting between the Hawkeyes and Bulldogs.

-- Kickoff is slated for 12:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

**Kentucky vs. Penn State**

Citrus Bowl

-- The VRBO Citrus Bowl will feature a matchup of the Kentucky Wildcats (9-3 straight up, 5-7 against the spread) from the Southeastern Conference will face off against the Penn State Nittany Lions (9-3 straight up, 7-5 against the spread) at Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. This will be a battle featuring a pair of Top 15 teams.

-- Kentucky will finish their season in a bowl game for the third consecutive season. They're hoping to snap a four-game losing streak in the postseason dating back to their last win in a bowl on Jan. 2, 2009 against East Carolina in the Liberty Bowl. This will be their second meeting in a bowl against the Nittany Lions since Jan. 1, 1999 when the teams squared off over in Tampa in the Outback Bowl. Penn State won that game by a 26-14 score under Joe Paterno against former UK coach Hal Mumme. The Wildcats are 0-3 all-time in bowl games in the state of Florida.

-- Penn State is back in the Citrus Bowl for the first time since the game was named the Capital One Bowl in 2009, a 19-17 win over LSU with JoePa at the helm. This will be their sixth appearance in the Capital One/Citrus Bowl game, going 2-3 SU in the first five showings. After a 9-2 SU run from 1993 to 2007, they're just 3-5 SU over the past eight postseason appearances.

-- Kentucky won their first five games of the season, including impressive wins at Florida, home against Mississippi State and home against South Carolina, all bowl teams. They suffered a 20-14 overtime loss at Texas A&M on Oct. 6, but bounced back against bowl teams Vanderbilt and Missouri the following two weeks. The Wildcats had a chance to clinch the SEC East Division and make their first-ever appearance in the SEC Championship Game, but they fell short against Georgia 34-17 on Nov. 3. They followed that up with an egg-laying in Tennessee on Nov. 10, 24-7. They bounced back with two non-conference wins to close out the year, but questions remain heading into the bowl.

-- Penn State nearly lost a stunner to Appalachian State in their opener, needing overtime to survive. They opened 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS in the first four before suffering a gut-wrenching 27-26 setback against Ohio State on Sept. 29. They also lost to Michigan State the following week. After a pair of wins they were humbled at Michigan by a 42-7 score. They wrapped up the conference schedule with three straight wins against Wisconsin, Rutgers and Maryland, all 'under' results.

-- Penn State was 45th in total yards (424.3 YPG) on offense, while posting 215.8 YPG in passing yards to finish 77th. They finished 28th in rushing yards (208.5 YPG) and 30th in points scored (30.6 PPG). The Nittany Lions are strong on defense, finishing 35th in total yards allowed (354.9 YPG), while giving up just 186.5 YPG to check in 19th. They also gave up just 20.0 PPG to finish 21st in the nation.

-- Kentucky finished 101st in total yards on offense, posting just 366.9 YPG while going 116th in passing yards (164.8 YPG). Their bread and butter is the run game, going for 202.1 YPG to finish 34th in the country. Defensively the Wildcats had it on lockdown, ranking 20th in the nation (327.0 YPG) in total yards. They were 15th against the pass (181.3 YPG) while checking in eighth (16.2 PPG) in points per game allowed.

-- The one to watch for the Wildcats is RB Benny Snell Jr., who managed 1,305 rushing yards (5.0 YPC) with 14 touchdowns.

-- For Penn State, RB Miles Sanders (207-1,223-9) did his best to fill the shoes of Saquon Barkley, while QB Trace McSorley passed for 2,285 yards, 16 touchdowns and six interceptions while running for 723 yards and 11 more scores.

-- Kentucky covered just two of their final seven games overall. They're also a dismal 3-12 ATS in their past 15 non-conference games and 1-5 ATS in the past six on a neutral-site field.

-- While Penn State is 0-4 ATS in their past four tries against SEC teams, they're 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight non-conference battles. They're also 15-5-2 ATS in the past 22 against winning teams while going 24-9-2 ATS in the past 35 games overall, including 5-2 ATS in the past seven at a neutral site.

-- The 'under' has cashed in four straight bowl games while going 6-1 in the past seven neutral-site appearances. The under is also 11-3 in the past 14 against teams with a winning overall mark.

-- The over is 5-0 in Penn State's past five outside of the conference while going 6-1 in the past seven neutral-site battles. The over is 13-6 in the past 19 overall and 9-3 in their past 12 against teams with a winning overall record.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

**LSU vs. UCF**

Fiesta Bowl

-- The Playstation Fiesta Bowl features the UCF Knights (12-0 straight up, 9-3 against the spread) from the American Athletic Conference while facing the Louisiana State Tigers (9-3 straight up, 6-6 against the spread) from the Southeastern Conference at University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Ariz.

-- The self-proclaimed national champion Knights won the Peach Bowl last season against Auburn, 34-27. Overall they're 4-5 SU in their nine bowl appearances, although they won their previous Fiesta Bowl showing on Jan. 1, 2014 against Baylor, 52-42. They're also 2-1 SU in three bowl games all-time against the SEC.

-- LSU has a lengthy bowl history, although lately their history in bowls hasn't been great. They're just 4-5 SU in the past nine bowl appearances after a 10-2 SU run from 1995 through 2008. This will be their first-ever appearance in the Fiesta Bowl. They're looking to bounce back after a 20-17 loss against Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl last season.

-- UCF has won 25 consecutive games dating back to their last loss, Dec. 17, 2016 in the Cure Bowl against Arkansas State. The Knights scored 31 or more points in all 12 of their games this season, including 37 or more in each of the final six. Six of the wins came against teams which qualified for bowl games, including two wins against Memphis.

-- LSU opened the season with a 33-17 win over Miami-Florida in a neutral-site battle in Arlington, Tex. They opened conference play 22-21 at Auburn to move to 3-0, and headed to Florida 5-0 on Oct. 6. The Gators upended the Tigers 27-19, however, before the Tigers bounced back 36-16 over Georgia and then 19-3 over Mississippi State. Like most, the Tigers were outclassed by Alabama 29-0 on Nov. 3 at Death Valley in an anticlimactic game. They wrapped up the regular season with an epic 74-72 loss in 7 OT against Texas A&M in front of the 11th man on Thanksgiving weekend.

-- UCF finished third in the land with 545.7 total yards per game and fifth in rushing yards (276.8 YPG). They also posted 44.2 PPG to finish fifth in the country. They slacked off slightly in passing yardage, due in part to a season-ending loss in November of Heisman candidate QB McKenzie Milton (knee). The Knights ranked 86th in total yards allowed (425.5 YPG), while finishing 118th against the run (227.5 YPG). Still, they managed to rank 21st in points allowed (21.2 PPG).

-- RB Adrian Killins Jr. (lower body), who had 698 rushing yards and four scores and 385 receiving yards and four touchdowns through the air, is listed as questionable.

-- LSU was so-so on offense, going 80th in total yards (389.3 YPG) while finishing 41st with 31.8 PPG. They posted 174.7 yards per game on the ground, finishing 58th. That might be the key to victory for the Tigers. On defense, the Tigers ranked 29th in total yards allowed (346.1 YPG), while finishing 24th in the land with just 20.9 PPG.

-- Graduate transfer QB Joe Burrow was adequate, posting 2,500 passing yards, 12 TDs and four INTs while running for 375 yards and seven touchdowns. RB Nick Brossette racked up 14 rushing touchdowns with 922 yards on the ground, while RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire added seven touchdowns with 626 rushing yards.

-- LSU leading WR Justin Jefferson (undisclosed), who posted 788 receiving yards and four touchdowns, is listed as questionable with an undisclosed ailment.

-- The Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their past seven bowl games, 1-4 ATS in the past five games in the month of January and 1-6-1 ATS in the past eight non-conference battles.

-- The Knights have cashed in four straight against winning teams while going 5-1 ATS in the past six games overall. UCF is also 5-2 ATS in the past seven non-conference battles.

-- The under is 3-1-1 in the past five games overall while going 4-1 in the past five neutral-site contests. The under is 5-2 in the past seven bowl games, too, while hitting the over in five of the past seven against winning teams.

-- The under is 7-2 in the past nine overall, while going 8-0-1 in UCF's past nine against the SEC.

-- This is the first-ever meeting between LSU and UCF on the gridiron.

-- Kickoff is slated for 1:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.


*******************************


Tuesday's Evening Bowl Tips
Joe Nelson

Getting to play on New Year?s Day is still a big draw even if the College Football Playoffs have taken some of the appeal away from the traditional bowl schedule. If that field expended these two matchups would be fitting play-in games as four prestigious programs face off in the Rose Bowl and Sugar Bowl games Tuesday night to wrap up the bowl schedule ahead of next week?s championship game.

ROSE BOWL

Matchup: Washington Huskies at Ohio State Buckeyes
Venue: Rose Bowl in Pasadena, California
Time/TV: Tuesday, January 1, 5:00 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Ohio State -6?, Over/Under 57?
Last Meeting: 2007 Ohio State (-3) 33, at Washington 14

For the second straight season, Ohio State wound up just on the outside of the College Football Playoffs as the Big Ten champion was left out for the second straight season. The 12-1 Buckeyes didn?t always look the part but wound up with a playoff caliber resume as this was an exceptional season with three prominent undefeated teams. For the second straight season, the caliber of the loss was damaging to Ohio State with a 49-20 defeat against a Purdue team that wound up 6-6 after last season being left out with an ugly 55-24 loss to Iowa cited, though a difference being that last season that was loss #2.

The season for Ohio State started with great controversy with the allegations surrounding Urban Meyer. He was suspended for the first three games which Ohio State won, including what at the time looked like a notable win over TCU. Meyer has announced that he will resign following this game and assistant Ryan Day, who led the team in Meyer?s absence, will take over leading the program.

The Buckeyes posted huge offensive numbers with Dwayne Haskins producing great results in what will likely be his only year as the starter, finishing third in the Heisman voting and with potential to be a NFL draft pick in the spring. Haskins was asked to do a lot this season as Ohio State was not a strong rushing team gaining nearly 1,000 fewer yards on the ground and 1.7 fewer yards per carry compared with last season. Ohio State also allowed 26 or more points in eight different games this season and had close call results with teams like Nebraska and Maryland before the emphatic win over Michigan.

With three losses out of a mediocre Pac-12, Washington didn?t receive any consideration by the playoff committee, but while Ohio State?s single loss came by 29 points, the three losses for Washington came by a combined total of 10 points. Washington lost two Pac-12 road games against Oregon and California and lost a big season opener with Auburn, ironically a team that just blasted the Purdue team that beat Ohio State. Washington was in position to win all three of those games as it will be a remembered as a season of what-ifs for the Huskies.

Senior quarterback Jake Browning had an underwhelming season as he has not been able to recapture the success of his sophomore season when the Huskies made the playoffs. He still had steady numbers and the Huskies out-rushed foes by nearly a yard per carry this season led by Myles Gaskin on offense and one of the nation?s better run defenses. While Meyer?s retirement will steal the spotlight with an all-time great resume, Chris Petersen has a tremendous 139-32 record at Boise State and Washington though he has lost three of his past four bowl games including a seven-point loss to Penn State in last season?s Fiesta Bowl.

Even in the current era where the significance of many bowls games has declined, the Rose Bowl still remains a prized invitation. The past two Rose Bowls have been wildly entertaining games with USC beating Penn State 52-49 two years ago in a traditional Big Ten/Pac-12 contest while the Rose Bowl was a playoff semifinal last season with Georgia holding off Oklahoma 54-48 in overtime. That type of scoring was common in Ohio State games this season but isn?t likely the preferred pace for a Washington team that allowed just over 15 points per game on the season.

SUGAR BOWL

Matchup: Texas Longhorns at Georgia Bulldogs
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana
Time/TV: Monday, December 31, 8:45 PM ET, ESPN
Line: Georgia -13, Over/Under 58
Last Meeting: 1984 (Cotton Bowl) Georgia (+7?) 10, Texas 9

Georgia had a playoff spot on the line in the SEC Championship with Alabama, a rematch of last season?s national championship game. The Bulldogs had a two-touchdown lead in the second half of that game but wound up falling short and ended up the last team out of the bracket. A Sugar Bowl bid is certainly a worthy consolation, but Georgia is a bowl team that has immense potential but perhaps suspect motivation in the final bowl game ahead of next week?s championship in Santa Clara.

Georgia had a few breaks in that game against Alabama with a 2-0 turnover edge and quarterback Tua Tagovalioa leaving the game for Alabama but for the second year in a row, the Bulldogs couldn?t finish off the Tide in a game they controlled. Georgia?s only regular season loss was a 20-point defeat at LSU in which they had four turnovers and the Bulldogs were a dominant rushing team posting 6.1 yards per carry and 252 yards per game. Georgia allowed just over 18 points per game on defense as well, only four times allowing more than 17 points, though they did so in each of the three most recent games.

Cornerback Deandre Baker is skipping this game for a big loss for the Georgia defense while defensive coordinator Mel Tucker left the program several weeks ago after being announced as the new head coach at Colorado and he has hired two assistants from the Georgia staff to join him. Georgia didn?t post the eye-popping offensive numbers that some of the other elite teams in the nation did, but Jake Fromm was one of the top quarterbacks in the nation in his second season and Georgia wound up defeating seven bowl teams by 14 or more points.

Georgia drew a difficult SEC schedule pulling LSU and Auburn from the West and certainly looked the part of a playoff caliber team and would have had a compelling case in most seasons. As this line suggests, Georgia is certainly considered one of the top four teams in the nation even if they didn?t have the credentials to be in the playoff field.

Tom Herman?s second season in Texas began poorly as he was often named in the investigation surrounding Urban Meyer. Texas then went out and lost to Maryland to open the season for the second straight season. The Longhorns rebounded for a fine season reaching 6-1 before losing a pair of very tight Big XII games, eventually making the Big XII title game where they lost to Oklahoma after beating the Sooners in the regular season. None of the four losses for Texas came by more than 12 points which was the margin in the Big XII championship loss in a game that was tied in the fourth quarter.

Texas also had several narrow wins however with six wins by seven or fewer points and four of those wins were against non-bowl teams. The Longhorns struggled to run the ball consistently this season, but quarterback Sam Ehlinger did have a breakthrough season in the passing game after inconsistent results last year.

The Sugar Bowl has not featured many close games in recent years with five of the past six games decided by 10 or more points. The game has featured some prominent upsets however with a pair of Alabama losses in 2014 and 2015 and while it wasn?t an upset by the pointspread, Alabama was the playoff #4 seed defeating #1 seed Clemson last season in this game. This will be a measuring stick game for the Big XII against the SEC with the Big XII winning two of the past three Sugar Bowl meetings with the SEC.

 

[Cnotes53]

TUESDAY, JANUARY 1
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MSST at IOWA 12:00 PM
MSST -7.0
U 40.0

UK at PSU 01:00 PM
UK +6.0
U 46.0

LSU at UCF 01:00 PM
LSU -7.5
U 58.0

WASH at OSU 05:00 PM
WASH +6.5
O 55.0

TEX at UGA 08:45 PM
UGA -11.5
O 59.0

HAPPY NEW YEARS !

 

[Cnotes53]

Iowa rallies past Miss State in Outback
January 1, 2019
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TAMPA, Fla. (AP) The Iowa Hawkeyes lost a yard on the last play of the Outback Bowl, pushing their final rushing total to minus 15 yards, and didn't mind a bit.

They ran the play from victory formation.

Safety Jake Gervase's interception in the end zone helped preserve a late lead, and a ball-hawking defense compensated for a sputtering offense as Iowa beat No. 18 Mississippi State 27-22 on Tuesday.

Gervase also batted down an errant fourth-down pass to end the Bulldogs' final drive at the Iowa 32 with 25 seconds left. Two earlier Mississippi State threats in the fourth quarter led to only three points.

The Hawkeyes totaled just 199 yards, with 75 coming on a touchdown pass from Nathan Stanley to Nick Easley , but they converted three takeaways into 17 points.

The Hawkeyes won despite losing 27 inches per rush. Their three running backs totaled 4 yards in 15 carries.

''We had a hard time blocking their front,'' coach Kirk Ferentz said. ''Defense really bailed us out.''

Iowa (9-4) earned its biggest postseason victory since an Orange Bowl win over Georgia Tech to cap the 2009 season. Mississippi State (8-5) lost to a team outside the top 15 for the first time.

Trailing 24-19, the Bulldogs had a first down at the Iowa 1 early in the fourth quarter, but three quarterback draws lost 2 yards and they settled for a field goal.

They were again on the verge of taking the lead with nine minutes left, but receiver Stephen Guidry bobbled a tipped pass in the end zone, and Gervase snatched it away.

''Sometimes you get lucky,'' Gervase said.

The Hawkeyes then drove 50 yards for a field goal, the game's final score.

''Bowl games are a lot like early season games, where turnovers and penalties really factor in,'' Ferentz said. ''If you aren't on top of that part of your game because you haven't played in a while, it can be a really tough thing. Obviously it helped us today being a little bit more opportunistic.''

Iowa had no penalties, while Mississippi State was penalized 90 yards, including a holding call that negated a 51-yard completion.

''Too many missed opportunities, too many penalties,'' Bulldogs coach Joe Moorhead said. ''Can't turn the ball, can't give up explosive plays, can't have penalties take scores off the board. We didn't do enough to earn the right to win.''

Mississippi State receiver Osirus Mitchell put it another way.

''We definitely beat ourselves,'' he said. ''They weren't better than us.''

A takeaway helped Iowa score two touchdowns in 97 seconds for a 17-6 lead - especially impressive against a team that allowed only 12 TDs during the regular season.

Mississippi State rallied with two touchdowns in 18 seconds to go up 19-17. Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald gave the Bulldogs the advantage on a nifty 33-yard touchdown run , his 100th career score rushing or passing.

But on their next possession, Fitzgerald's tipped pass was intercepted by defensive lineman Chauncey Golston. Stanley then scrambled to convert a fourth and 1, and on the next play he hit Easley with an 8-yard score to put Iowa ahead to stay, 24-19.

MAKING THE ADJUSTMENT

Easley had a career-high 104 yards receiving on eight catches and was chosen the most valuable player. He nearly ran out from under his helmet on his long touchdown.

''I had a little bit of a malfunction with my helmet strap - a little piece broke the play before,'' he said. ''As I was running, it started coming off a little bit. Thankfully I was able to pull it back on and continue to run.''

Easley and Gervase played their final game as seniors who walked on.

''It's how we're built,'' Ferentz said.

INJURY REPORT

Running back Kylin Hill left the game when he took a hit to the helmet in the fourth quarter, but he was back in the lineup on the Bulldogs' final possession.

Moorhead said Hill cleared the concussion protocol.

''I'm good,'' Hill tweeted with a thumbs-up emoji after the game.

TAKEAWAYS

Iowa will likely finish in the Top 25 for only the second time in the past nine seasons. Ferentz concluded his 20th season at Iowa and improved to 152-101, including 8-8 in bowl games.

The down-to-the-wire finish was a rarity for the Bulldogs, who had only one other game decided by fewer than 14 points.

UP NEXT

Stanley will be a third-year starter returning to lead the 2019 Hawkeyes, who also will have their top three rushers back. They open the season Aug. 31 at home against Miami (Ohio).

With fifth-year senior Fitzgerald departing, the Bulldogs will have a new starting quarterback when they open the 2019 season on Aug. 31 in New Orleans against Louisiana.


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Kentucky holds off Penn State, 27-24
January 1, 2019
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ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) Winning 10 games, beating Penn State on New Year's Day, and finishing in the Top 20 is no small deal for the Kentucky Wildcats.

So when Mark Stoops took a seat on the podium flanked by linebacker Josh Allen and running back Benny Snell Jr. after Tuesday's 27-24 victory in the Citrus Bowl, the coach understandably was beyond excited.

''It was extremely important to this team, to all of us, to come home with some hardware, to come home with a trophy,'' Stoops said.

Snell ran for 144 yards and two touchdowns to become Kentucky's career rushing leader and helped the 16th-ranked Wildcats end their best season in more than four decades on a winning note.

''There's no question that these guys changed the culture,'' Stoops said. ''They've done so much and meant so much to this team and this program that it was very important to finish, to collect the trophy, win 10 games and win a game on New Year's Day. Believe me, we had a great belief that we didn't have to do anything special (to win), just be us.''

Snell scored on runs of 2 and 12 yards in the second half, then carried for a couple of crucial first downs to help Kentucky (10-3) run out the clock after Penn State's Trace McSorley trimmed a 27-7 deficit to three points despite playing with a foot injury.

McSorley threw for 246 yards and two touchdowns, and the Nittany Lions' career passing and wins leader also rushed for a team-high 75 yards and one TD.

''The same thing that troubled us throughout the season troubled us here again today. Dropped balls, missed opportunities. That's really kind of the story of the game,'' said Penn State coach James Franklin, whose team started slowly on offense, missed one field goal and had another blocked.

Lynn Bowden Jr. scored on a 58-yard punt return for Kentucky. Allen, the Southeastern Conference defensive player of the year, had three of the Wildcats' six sacks.

''The three guys we knew we needed to stop were Bowden, Snell and Allen. All three of them showed up today,'' Franklin said.

''They've built their program around those guys, they built their season around those guys,'' Franklin added. ''They made plays. That's what great players do.''

Penn State (9-4) trailed 27-7 entering the fourth quarter, but McSorley's wasn't finished. His 1-yard TD run capped a 75-yard drive, and he followed with an 18-yard TD pass to Pat Friermuth to cut Kentucky's lead to six.

The Nittany Lions marched to the Kentucky 14 on their next possession and pulled within 27-24 with 4:12 left.

Thanks to Snell, a junior who already has declared for the NFL draft, McSorley didn't get the ball back until just one second was left on the clock.

Franklin declined to discuss specifics of McSorley's injury.

''We don't typically get into specifics. ... Obviously Trace was experiencing some discomfort. The doctors felt like he could go, but it really just came down to Trace on how Trace felt,'' Franklin said.

McSorley, who was to undergo further evaluation, said he hadn't received ''definitive information'' on whether his foot was broken.

''I've been through too much, the team has been through too much. ... They told me it was a matter of if I could deal with the discomfort,'' the quarterback said. ''If I could do that, I was going to play.''

HISTORIC SEASON

Kentucky finished with its first 10-win season since 1977 - when the Wildcats went 10-1 - and just the third time in program history. The school also did it in 1950. Snell, meanwhile, broke Sonny Collins' career rushing record on his 12-yard TD run that made it 27-7 late in the third quarter. Collins rushed for 3,835 yards from 1972-75.

THE TAKEAWAY

Kentucky: Facing a tradition-rich opponent in a New Year's bowl was significant for the Wildcats, who made the most of the opportunity. Along with the three sacks, Allen blocked a field goal to key a strong defensive effort, while the offense shrugged off a slow start to help the Wildcats pull away in the second half.

Penn State: The Nittany Lions fell short of their goal to finish with 10 wins in three consecutive seasons for the first time since 1980-82. Three of their four losses were by a total of eight points.

UP NEXT

Kentucky: Wildcats look to build on success they've had under coach Mark Stoops, who has transformed them into a Top 25 team. Their 5-3 record in SEC play represented their first winning mark in the league in 41 years, spawning heightened expectations for 2019.

Penn State: Nittany Lions face challenge of replacing McSorley, the school's career leader for wins, completions, passing yards, passing TDs, total offense and rushing TDs by a quarterback.


******************************


LSU knocks off UCF 40-32 in Fiesta
January 1, 2019
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GLENDALE, Ariz. (AP) Joe Burrow watched the ball land in an opposing player's hands and immediately gave chase. Locked in on preventing a pick six, LSU's quarterback didn't see Joey Connors, Central Florida's 313-pound defensive lineman, bearing down on him.

With a thunderous, blindside collision , Burrow found himself flat on his back, woozy and wondering what happened.

Minutes later, after being helped to his feet, Burrow was back on the field, hitting receivers all over the field.

The nation's longest winning streak was over. So was a second self-proclaimed national championship.

The LSU Tigers were Fiesta Bowl champions, thanks to their gritty junior quarterback.

Burrow shook off the big early hit to throw for 394 yards and four touchdowns, helping No. 11 LSU end No. 7 UCF's 25-game winning streak with a 40-32 victory in the Fiesta Bowl on Tuesday.

''I didn't really think about the hit too much after it happened,'' said Burrow, who had a cut on his neck from the hit. ''It hurt for a second, I got right up and went on to the next play.''

LSU (10-3, No. 11 CFP) started its first Fiesta Bowl without several key players on defense and fell into an early 11-point hole against the high-scoring Knights (12-1, No. 8 CFP).

The Tigers clawed back behind Burrow and a defensive front that made life difficult for UCF quarterback Darriel Mack Jr.

Burrow returned from the early blindside hit to pick apart UCF's secondary, hitting 21 of 34 of passes, including two touchdowns to Justin Jefferson.

''It looked like the passing game we wanted,'' LSU coach Ed Orgeron said. ''Joe was on the money.''

LSU sacked Mack five times and made him rush numerous throws, holding the nation's third-best offense to 250 total yards - 295 below its average - while spoiling the Knights' bid for a second straight self-proclaimed national title.

Taj McGowan scored on a 2-yard run and the Knights converted a 2-point conversion to pull UCF to within 40-32. After LSU recovered the onside kick, the Knights' last-ditch attempt finished with a tipped interception, ending a run that started after a loss in the 2016 Cure Bowl.

''Obviously, everyone in the locker room is really upset,'' UCF defensive lineman Mason Colubiale. ''We haven't lost a game since 2016.''

UCF declared itself national champions after finishing as the only undefeated FBS team a year ago. The Knights earned another shot at an undefeated season by staging a massive rally to beat Memphis in the American Athletic Conference title game.

But just like last year, UCF was on the outside looking in when the College Football Playoff final four was announced, adding to the boulder-sized chip on its shoulder and only a self-awarded national title in its reach.

The Speedy Knights got the Fiesta Bowl off to a fast start, going up 14-3 on Greg McCrae's 25-yard TD run and Brandon Moore's 93-yard interception return.

The Tigers roared back behind Burrow and their disruptive defensive front.

Burrow shook off the big hit on the pick six, finding Jefferson on a pair of scoring passes and a 49-yard TD to Derrick Dillon.

UCF sputtered offensively after its opening drive, but Mack hit Gabriel Davis on a 32-yard pass in the closing seconds to pull UCF to within 24-21 at halftime.

Burrow opened the second half with a 32-yard TD pass to Ja'Marr Chase, and Cole Tracy hit three field goals to put LSU up 40-24. Tracy's final kick, the 97th of his career, broke the NCAA all-division record and ended the nation's fourth-longest winning streak since 2000.

''Love the way they competed for four quarters, continued to fight with everything that they had. Believed. Played as a group,'' UCF first-year coach Josh Huepel said. ''Just weren't good enough at the end.''

THE TAKEAWAY

Even depleted, LSU's defense proved to still be formidable and Burrow showed his grit after the big hit, giving LSU its first 10-win season since 2013.

UCF missed injured two-time AAC player of the year McKenzie Milton and had no answer for LSU's passing game to lose for the first time in two years.

SO MANY PENALTIES

The first meeting between UCF and LSU was chippy from the start, including three first-half ejections. LSU consensus All-America safety Grant Delpit was among those ejected after being called for targeting in the second quarter.

UCF had a key penalty in the second quarter, when Randy Charlton was hit with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty after the Knights stopped LSU on a third-and-6. That kept the Tigers' drive alive and Burrow hit Justice for a TD that pulled LSU to within 14-10.

LSU had 14 penalties for 145 yards, LSU had 12 for 104 yards.

UP NEXT

LSU: RB Nick Brossette is a senior, Clyde Edwards-Helaire is just a sophomore and Burrow will be back. Delpit also is a sophomore and most of the defense should be back. LSU opens the 2019 season against Georgia Southern on Aug. 31.

UCF: Most of the Knights' offense skill players should be back, but they have four seniors on the two-deep offensive line roster. UCF also will have new pieces on defense next season, with nine seniors on the two-deep. UCF opens the 2019 season against Florida A&M on Aug. 31.

 

[Cnotes53]

Ohio State tops Washington 28-23 in Meyer's Rose Bowl finale
January 1, 2019
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PASADENA, Calif. (AP) Urban Meyer says he decided to end his remarkable coaching career at Ohio State partly because of the stress inherent in this high-intensity job.

After his Buckeyes blew most of a 25-point lead in the fourth quarter and had to recover a last-minute onside kick to win the Rose Bowl, anybody could understand why this 54-year-old coach can't wait to retire.

But the stress is over. Meyer is going out at the top of his profession. And for the first time, he is a Rose Bowl champion.

Dwayne Haskins passed for 251 yards and three touchdowns, and Meyer headed into retirement with a 28-23 victory after the fifth-ranked Buckeyes held off No. 9 Washington's thrilling comeback in the 105th Rose Bowl on Tuesday.

After the confetti flew in the north end zone, the Buckeyes gathered around Meyer for one last celebration of their coach. He is walking away after going 83-9 at Ohio State with one national championship, three Big Ten titles and this Rose Bowl victory, the Buckeyes' eighth overall in the Granddaddy of Them All.

''I'm a very blessed man,'' Meyer said. ''I'm blessed because of my family, (but) this team, this year, I love this group as much as any I've ever had.''

Parris Campbell, Johnnie Dixon and Rashod Berry caught TD passes in the first half for the Buckeyes (13-1), who took a 28-3 lead into the fourth and seemed to be cruising to a blowout.

But star running back Myles Gaskin threw a touchdown pass and rushed for two more scores for the Huskies (10-4), scoring from 2 yards out with 42 seconds left.

The Huskies got no closer, however. Defensive player of the game Brendon White intercepted Jake Browning's pass on the 2-point conversion attempt, and Dixon recovered Washington's onside kick.

''We're going down as one of three teams in Ohio State history to win 13 games,'' Buckeyes defensive end Chase Young said. ''Legendary team. Legendary coach. We're all legendary right now.''

Meyer cited his health last month in his decision to step down. A cyst in Meyer's brain causes severe headaches that are even worse for a man who says he gets not just nervous, but ''deathly ill'' before big games.

Meyer largely refused to reflect publicly on his career during the month since he announced his plans. After he shook Washington coach Chris Petersen's hand, raised the trophy and walked off the Rose Bowl turf, Meyer finally thought about the journey that brought him back to his home state for a stellar seven-year tenure capped by this late-breaking thriller.

''Every week, every yard, every down, when we recruited these players, I just wanted to make sure that we made the great state of Ohio proud,'' Meyer said. ''And once again, we weren't perfect, but we did a lot of good things.''

After Southern California's epic win over Penn State and Georgia's double-overtime thriller with Oklahoma over the past two years in Pasadena, the Rose Bowl got another matchup packed with late-game fireworks.

Browning passed for 313 yards and Gaskin rushed for 121 in the final game of the four-year starters' landmark careers at Washington, which has lost three straight New Year's Six bowl games.

But after three poor offensive quarters, the Pac-12 champions made it awfully interesting late. The Huskies racked up 170 yards of offense while making three strong drives in the fourth, but they had fallen too far behind in their first Rose Bowl game appearance in 18 years.

''It was too little, too late, but we're always going to keep swinging,'' Browning said. ''That's how we are as a team. We're never out of it.''

Petersen dropped to 1-4 in bowls during his otherwise remarkable tenure at Washington, including consecutive defeats in the Peach, Fiesta and Rose.

''Very frustrating when you start the first half like we started,'' Petersen said. ''I have no idea why. It's on me. It's not these kids. ... We'll go back to the drawing board on how to prepare these guys better to come out of the gate a little bit faster. But I am proud of how hard these guys play, and I never doubt that.''

While Petersen likely will get more chances for his first Rose Bowl win, Meyer insists his three-decade collegiate coaching career is over. After starting out as a graduate assistant at Ohio State, he has been a head coach since 2001, achieving huge success at Bowling Green, Utah and Florida before his stellar run in Columbus.

These Buckeyes are Meyer's eighth team to finish with one loss or fewer in his 17 seasons as a head coach.

''He's a really tough guy,'' said Ohio State running back Mike Weber, who rushed for 96 yards. ''Sometimes you never really know what he's thinking. He really doesn't show a lot of emotion, but I felt him today. You could tell he was giving his all. It felt a little different.''

Although Meyer's final season began with an embarrassing three-game suspension over his mismanagement of domestic abuse accusations against former assistant Zach Smith, he propelled the Buckeyes to another dominant regular season despite missing out on the College Football Playoff.

This game could be Haskins' farewell to Ohio State as well, if the sophomore goes pro. The offensive player of the game and Heisman Trophy finalist became the sixth FBS quarterback to throw 50 touchdown passes in a season while picking away at the vaunted Washington secondary minus injured Taylor Rapp, the second-team All-American safety.

Gaskin became the fourth running back in NCAA history with four 1,200-yard seasons during the third quarter, but Ohio State increased its lead with J.K. Dobbins' TD run.

The Huskies finally scored their first offensive touchdown since the Apple Cup when Gaskin threw a TD pass to Drew Sample with 12:17 to play.

THE TAKEAWAY

Ohio State: The offense did enough to win despite punting on five straight late drives. Fans can only wonder whether this bunch of Buckeyes would have done better than overmatched Notre Dame or Oklahoma in the playoff semifinals.

Washington: The defeat wrapped up an unimpressive Pac-12 football season. The Huskies were the class of the conference, and they showed tremendous heart in the fourth - but they'll be frustrated with a campaign bookended by losses to national powers Auburn and Ohio State.

UP NEXT

Ohio State: Ryan Day is now the 25th head coach in program history. Haskins could be the first quarterback drafted if he leaves, and he's just one key contributor who must be replaced. But Meyer has built a fierce machine in Columbus, and he seems certain Day is the man to drive it forward.

Washington: Replacing the most prolific quarterback and running back in program history isn't easy, but many Huskies fans are excited to see who's next. Petersen has built a powerhouse in Seattle, and Washington should be in position to contend for a trip to Pasadena almost every year.


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Ehlinger's 3 TDs lead Texas past Georgia
January 1, 2019
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NEW ORLEANS (AP) Sam Ehlinger ran for three touchdowns, the Texas defense largely held Georgia's offense in check, and the Longhorns earned their first 10-win season since 2009 by beating the Bulldogs 28-21 in the Sugar Bowl on Tuesday night.

Ehlinger was the star of a gritty win, running for a 2-yard touchdown in the first quarter, a 9-yard score in the second, and a 1-yard TD in the fourth. The 6-foot-3, 230-pound sophomore finished with 64 yards rushing on 21 carries and also threw for 169 yards.

No. 14 Texas (10-4) continued its quick rise under coach Tom Herman, capping his second season with a Sugar Bowl win that will surely send expectations soaring after nearly a decade of mostly mediocrity.

Texas stretched its lead to 28-7 with 11:49 left in the fourth quarter on Ehlinger's 1-yard run, finally scoring on fourth down after his first three attempts at running for the score fell just short of the end zone.

No. 6 Georgia (11-3) was a 12 1/2-point favorite and claimed it would be ready for the Sugar Bowl despite just missing a spot in the College Football Playoff after a loss in the Southeastern Conference championship game. But a sloppy opening sequence indicated otherwise.

Texas jumped out to a 17-0 lead by early in the second quarter, largely because of Georgia's mistakes on special teams and offense.

The most costly was when D'Andre Swift fumbled deep in Georgia's own territory, giving Texas possession at the 12. Three plays later, Ehlinger deftly escaped trouble in the pocket and scored on a 9-yard run to give the Longhorns a 17-point advantage with 14:53 left in the second quarter.

Georgia got back into the game with a methodical 12-play drive that ended with Jake Fromm finding Brian Herrien for a 17-yard touchdown, but Texas still took a 20-7 advantage into halftime.

Fromm completed 20 of 34 passes for 212 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. The Bulldogs scored a touchdown with 14 seconds left to pull within 28-21 but Texas recovered the ensuing onside kick.

DON'T MESS WITH BEVO

Even the Texas mascot was in a feisty mood before the Sugar Bowl.

Bevo - which is the Longhorns' huge longhorn steer - charged through a barricade and toward Georgia's red sweater-clad bulldog mascot Uga X about an hour before the game. A few people, including photographers, were knocked down to the ground, but there were no reported injuries and Bevo was quickly restrained.

THE TAKEAWAY

Texas: It's a validating win for Texas, which was the physically dominant team while playing one of the SEC's best programs. It's fair to say the Longhorns are ahead of schedule under Herman and expectations will skyrocket going forward.

Georgia: A very good Bulldogs' season ended with a huge thud after back-to-back losses to Alabama and Texas. Georgia made far too many mistakes against the Longhorns and Fromm didn't have one of his best games.

UP NEXT

Georgia is a set to be very good again in 2019, especially on offense where most of the starters should return. The Bulldogs open next season with an SEC game on the road against Vanderbilt on Aug. 31.

Texas returns several key pieces, including Ehlinger, but loses several key contributors on defense. Texas will host Louisiana Tech in the season opener on Aug. 31.

 

[Cnotes53]

2018-2019 College Bowl Record - Opinions and Best Bets !

DATE W-L-T % UNITS

01/01/2019 3-7-0 30.00% -23.50
12/31/2018 7-4-1 63.64% +13.00
12/29/2018 5-4-1 55.56% +3.00
12/28/2018 2-4-0 33.33% -12.00
12/27/2018 5-1-0 83.33% +19.50
12/26/2018 1-3-0 25.00% -11.50
12/22/2018 4-4-0 50.00% -2.00
12/21/2018 2-2-0 50.00% -1.00
12/20/2018 1-1-0 50.00% -0.50
12/19/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/18/2018 0-2-0 0.00% -11.00
12/15/2018 4-6-0 40.00% -13.00

TOTAL............34-40-0.......45.94%.....-50.00


*********************************


DATE........................ATS................... UNITS..................O/U....................UNITS.................TOTAL

01/01/2019.............2 - 2..................-1.00...................0 - 3.....................-16.50...............-17.50
12/31/2018.............5 - 1.................+14.50.................2 - 1.....................+4.50...............+19.00
12/29/2018.............2 - 2.................-1.00....................1 - 1.....................-0.50................-1.50
12/28/2018.............2 - 1.................+4.50...................0 - 3.....................-16.50..............-12.00
12/27/2018.............2 - 1.................+4.50...................3 - 0....................+15.00..............+19.50
12/26/2018.............0 - 2..................-11.00..................1 - 2....................-6.00.................-17.00
12/22/2018.............2 - 2..................-1.00....................2 - 2....................-1.00.................-2.00
12/21/2018.............1 - 1..................-0.50....................1 - 1....................-0.50.................-1.00
12/20/2018.............1 - 0.................+5.00....................0 - 1....................-5.50.................-0.50
12/19/2018.............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1....................-5.50.................-11.00
12/18/2018.............0 - 1..................-5.50....................0 - 1....................-5.50.................-11.00
12/15/2018.............0 - 4..................-22.00..................3 - 2....................+4.00................-18.00

TOTAL...................17 - 18................-19.00.................13 - 18..................-34.00...............-53.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday?s 6-pack

NBA?s top six players free throw shooters (min 50 att):

6) JJ Redick, 76ers 109-120, 90.8%

5) Kevin Durant, Warriors 269-295, 91.2%

4) Stephen Curry, Warriors 130-142, 91.5%

3) Lou Williams, Clippers 169-184, 91.8%

2) Danilo Gallinari, Clippers 191-207, 92.3%

1) Malcolm Brogdon, Bucks 56-57, 98.2%

Quote of the Day
?We felt it important to extend and amend Lincoln?s contract at this time as we want him at the University of Oklahoma for a long time. He is a great coach and role model for our student-athletes. His record of success speaks for itself. Lincoln is also the right representative for our university in such a high-profile position. I am proud to work with him and anxious to support him as he takes our program into the future.?
Oklahoma president James Gallogly; lets see the Sooners go 7-5 a couple years in a row and see what a great role model they think Riley is.

Wednesday?s quiz
Who was the only NFL QB to take every offensive snap for his team this season?

Tuesday?s quiz
Shaquille O?Neal played his college basketball at LSU.

Monday?s quiz
Fred Dalton Thompson played a DA on Law and Order for five years, then later ran for the Republican nomination for President in 2008.

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Wednesday?s List of 13: Wrapping up the first day of 2019

13) Forgot to mention this Monday, but NFL gets the Week 17 thing right; every game is a divisional rivalry game, and the most meaningful games are stuffed into the 4:25 window of games, to maximize drama. Makes handicapping more difficult, but so be it.

12) There are rumors going around Las Vegas these days that UNLV is going to have a new basketball coach next year, and that guy is coaching in Greece right now? Rick Pitino.

11) Kentucky 27, Penn State 24? Wildcats win 10+ games in same football season for first time since 1977. Kentucky led 27-7, were outgained 407-297, but hung on for the win- they ran a punt back for a touchdown, the first punt return Penn State allowed for a TD since 2012.

10) Houston snags football coach Dana Holgorsen away from West Virginia, giving him $20M over five years; not often a guy voluntarily leaves a Big X program for an AAC team, but money talks??

9) Of the 12 teams who made NFL playoffs this year, Rams played most games (4-3) against them this season. Bears (2-1), Ravens (1-2) played the fewest.

8) Jets could be a good over bet for wins next season; since 2000, here are the Jet head coaches, 1st year and then after??

2000 Al Groh First year: 9-7 Replaced after one year
2001 Herm Edwards: First year: 10-6 Rest of time: 29-35
2006: Eric Mangini: First year: 10-6 Rest of time: 13-19
2008: Rex Ryan: First year: 9-7 Rest of time: 37-43
2015: Todd Bowles: First year: 10-6 Rest of time: 14-34

7) Speaking of the Jets, how does the coach at Iowa Freakin? State turn down an interview with an NFL team? Matt Campbell doesn?t want to coach in the NFL? Fine, but interviewing with an NFL team wouldn?t at least be a good experience for him? I laughed when I saw this note.

6) Agreed that Steve Alford/UCLA was an odd fit, but here is the list of coaches who made 3+ Sweet 16?s in the last five years:
Alford, Beilein, Calipari, Few, Huggins, Krzyzewski, Sean MIller, Self, Williams.

Firing Alford before conference play was insulting, and probably done to placate a big-money donor. Wonder if it?ll hurt them in finding a high-profile replacement.

5) Gambling is difficult: Monday, Weber State (-6.5) won 93-87 at Idaho. Weber was up 41-16 with 5:49 left in first half, led by 22 at the half, but didn?t cover. Idaho made 10-19 3-pointers but covered by only a half-point. Weber was the right side in the game, but not the winning side.

4) Ohio State 28, Washington 23? I wonder if Urban Meyer will ever coach again; hopefully he will never be on TV again, just a totally humorless, serious person who was a great coach but for Pete?s sake, tell a joke or say something sarcastic now and then- its not that hard.

3) LSU 40, Central Florida 32? Tigers? QB Joe Burrow was 21-34 for 394 yards and four TD?s as LSU ended UCF?s 25-game winning streak. Burrow led LSU to a 10-3 record this season; he was the 3rd-string QB at Ohio State before this year. Think about that for a second.

2) Lions fired OC Jim Bob Cooter Tuesday; officially it is a ?mutual parting of ways? which is a nice way of Matt Patricia saying, ?Take a hike!!!!?

Jets/Cardinals need to look at Cooter to help develop their young QB?s.

1) Tuesday is usually garbage day in my neighborhood, but because of New Year?s Day, it got pushed back a day this week. Lot of my neighbors didn?t get the memo and put their garbage out Monday night, and it was really windy Tuesday morning, so the neighborhood was a mess Tuesday morning, lot of stuff everywhere. Not a great way to start 2019.