Cnotes 2019-2020 College Football Trends-News-Notes-Best Bets & Opinions !

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack

Some of this weekend?s interesting college football games:

? Texas A&M @ Georgia (-13.5)

? TCU @ Oklahoma (-18)

? Minnesota (-13.5) @ Northwestern

? Oregon (-14.5) @ Arizona State

? Oregon State @ Washington State (-10.5)

? Texas @ Baylor (-5.5)


**********

Armadillo: Wednesday's List of 13: Mid-week musings??

13) Cincinnati Bengals when Marvin Lewis was coach: 131-122-3 (2003-18)

Cincinnati Bengals without Marvin Lewis as coach: 42-147 (1991-2002, 2019)

Bengals went 0-7 in playoff games under Lewis, so the natives got restless and they fired him, which now seems like a mistake.

12) Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but Tom Brady IS NOT the best quarterback ever; he?s won the most Super Bowls, but thats not the argument:

If we were drafting football teams, with every player ever in their prime eligible, which QB would you take to start your team?

11) New England Patriots have started 23 drives in opponent territory, a big reason why they?re 9-1- their offense isn?t so great this year, but their defense/special teams are.

10) Rhode Island 70, Nicholls State 65? Colonels lost three of first four D-I games, losing in OT at Illinois, by 10 at LSU- they won at Pittsburgh.

Nicholls starts three seniors and a junior; they should be a contender in the Southland Conference this winter.

9) Virginia 61, Vermont 55? Catamounts beat St John?a LW, are pretty heavy favorite to win America East this winter.

8) Kansas 75, East Tennessee State 63?Jayhawks won despite going 1-14 on the arc, a number we?ll keep an eye on as conference play gets closer.

7) Very good commercial on the Memphis Grizzlies? local telecast; realtor.com, with NBA star Lou Williams, who has played for six teams in his 15-year NBA career, saying how whenever he has to move (they show a couple of his old houses) he uses realtor.com

Williams has earned over $74M in salary in his career, so he can afford nice houses.

6) Radford 67, Northwestern 56? Going to be a long winter for the Wildcats; if you lose at home to Merrimack/Redford, playing in the Big 14 figures to be a big problem.

5) Houston 97, Rice 89? Owls led their crosstown rivals 39-32 at the half, but lost to Houston for 6th time in a row.

Cougars scored 65 points in the second half.

4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-8 ATS) are the worst NFL team against the pointspread so far this season.

3) Montana Tech 74, Montana 72? Griz were in the NCAA?s the last two years, but lost their first two D-I games this month, then lose here to the Orediggers, who play in the Frontier League. This was Montana?s first loss to a non-D-I team since they lost to Alaska-Anchorage in 2002- their last losing season was in 2008.

2) Boston U 78, South Carolina 70? Gamecocks were in Final Four three years ago, but are 36-33 since then, 18-18 in SEC games. SEC teams shouldn?t lose to Patriot League teams.

1) A student manager for South Carolina?s football team got fired after he was arrested for public disorderly conduct when he got into a fight with a guy on Halloween night who dressed up as South Carolina football coach Will Muschamp.

 

[Cnotes53]

Tech Trends - Week 13
Bruce Marshall

Tuesday, Nov. 19

Matchup Skinny
Edge

OHIO at BOWLING GREEN...Solich just 2-8 vs. line this season,, but he covered last 2 big and won last 3 vs. BGSU. Falcs only 3-7 vs. spread TY, though they have covered 3 at home.
Ohio, based on series trends.


EASTERN MICHIGAN at NORTHERN ILLINOIS...EMU 19-6-1 vs. spread away from Ypsilanti since 2016, (15-3-1 as away dog that span). Huskies 3-7 vs. line vs. MAC at DeKalb since 2017.
Eastern Michigan, based on team trends.


Wednesday, Nov. 20

Matchup Skinny
Edge

TOLEDO at BUFFALO...Rockets no covers last five away from Glass Bowl. Bulls have covered 8 straight at home vs. MAC.
Buffalo, based on team trends.


AKRON at MIAMI-OHIO...ips on verge of unprecedented 0-12 SU and vs. line. Miami 21-7 vs. line in last half of reg season since 2015 (4-0 TY).
Miami-Ohio, based on team trends.


Thursday, Nov. 21

Matchup Skinny
Edge

NC STATE at GEORGIA TECH...NCS has hit skids, no covers last 4 or 8 of last 9 TY. Pack no covers last 8 away from Raleigh.
Georgia Tech, based on NCS negatives.


Friday, Nov. 22

Matchup Skinny
Edge

COLORADO STATE at WYOMING...Border war! CSU has covered 5 of last 7 TY, and have covered last 4 on MW road. Bohl however on 11-3-1 spread run. Bohl has won and covered last three vs. Bobo.
Slight to Wyoming, based on team and series trends.


Saturday, Nov. 23

Matchup Skinny
Edge

NEBRASKA at MARYLAND...Huskers no covers TY (0-7) in Big Ten and just 1-9 vs. line overall this season. Locksley just 2-6 vs. spread last 8 TY, but decent 3-2 vs. spread as host.
Maryland, based on recent Husker woes.


BALL STATE at KENT STATE...Ball on uptick with 5-1 spread mark last six TY. Cards have covered all five away from Muncie TY. Flashes 5-2 vs. points last 7 as MAC host Ball won 52-24 LY.
Ball State, based on recent trends.


MEMPHIS at SOUTH FLORIDA...Tigers just 5-7 vs. line last 11 away from Liberty Bowl. Charlie Strong 2-7 vs. points last 9 hosting FBS foes in Tampa.
Memphis, based on USF woes.


MICHIGAN at INDIANA...Harbaugh has made spread recovery TY, 6-1 last 7 vs. line since bad Wiscy loss. Though just 2-7 last 9 as visiting chalk. Hoosiers have covered last three in series and 6-1 last 7 vs. spread TY.
Indiana, based on series trends.


KANSAS STATE at TEXAS TECH...KSU on 9-3 spread run since late 2018. But Tech 4-1 vs. line at Lubbock TY, 6-2 last 8 as host.
Texas Tech, based on team trends.


TEXAS A&M at GEORGIA...Jimbo 4-2 as dog since LY, 4-1 vs. spread as SEC visitor. Jimbo 17-7 vs. spread with Ags since LY. Kirby Smart just 2-4 vs. line at home TY, though Bulldogs have covered last 3 in 2019.
Texas A&M, based on team trends.


DUKE at WAKE FOREST...No home edge lately in series with road team winning SU and covering last four meetings. Duke skidding however, 0-4-2 last six vs. line TY, and Cutcliffe just 1-3 as dog TY after 25-12-1 mark in role entering this season. Wake has covered 4 of last 5 at home TY.
Slight to Wake Forest, based on recent trends.


OKLAHOMA STATE at WEST VIRGINIA...Gundy on 9-2 spread uptick since late LY. Cowboys have won and covered high-scoring games past four years. Mounties 2-4 vs. line last six TY.
Oklahoma State, based on team and series trends.


EAST CAROLINA at UCONN... ECU on 5-1 spread uptick last six TY and has covered last three on road. Huskies 5-15 vs. points last 20 at Pratt & Whitney (2-3 TY), Edsall 6-17 vs. spread since LY. Pirates have won and covered last three meetings.
East Carolina, based on team trends.


BYU at UMASS...UMass 2-9 vs. line TY, Sitake 6-2 vs. spread last 8 away from Provo.
BYU, based on team trends.


TEMPLE at CINCINNATI...Owls 1-4 vs. line last five away from Philly, but did win most-recent on road at USF. Owls also 5-2 last seven as dog. Temple has won and covered last four meeting. Note Cincy, 5-11 vs. spread last half of reg season past three years.
Cincinnati, based on team trends.


TCU at OKLAHOMA...Frogs only 1-5 vs. line last six TY, and 1-6 vs. spread last 7 as Big 12 visitor. OU has won and covered last four meetings.
Oklahoma, based on team and series trends.


TROY at UL-LAFAYETTE...Troy rallying a bit after slow start vs. line, covers in last 2. T Troy 1-2 as dog TY after 10-4 mark in role entering 2019. Billy Napier 8-2 vs. line TY, 16-3-2 last 21 vs. spread reg season.
ULL, based on team trends.


LIBERTY at VIRGINIA...Falwells have covered 4 of last 5 TY and 6-2 last eight vs. spread. Flames no covers last three vs. Power 5 but did cover at Cavs LY. Bronco just 2-6 vs. line last 8 TY.
Slight to Liberty, based on team trends.


ILLINOIS at IOWA...Lovie has won last four and covered last five TY. Ferentz has buried Lovie past three years and Iowa 5-0 SU, 4-1 vs. line last five meetings.
Slight to Iowa, based on series trends.


PURDUE at WISCONSIN...Purdue surprisingly has covered 5 of last 6 TY, including 3-0 on Big Ten road. Now 4-0 vs. line last four as Big Ten visitor. Road team has also covered last five in series!
Purdue, based on team trends.


KANSAS at IOWA STATE...Jayhawks have been ripped by ISU past two years. Cyclones 4-2 vs. line last five TY, though just 3-6 last nine as DD chalk!
Slight to Iowa State, based on recent series trends.


MINNESOTA at NORTHWESTERN...Gophers 6-1 vs. line L7 TY, Cats no covers last five and 2-8 vs. spread in big Fitz downturn. Fitz only 2-5 as dog TY in what was previously a very good role for him.
Minnesota, based on recent trends.


OREGON at ARIZONA STATE...Ducks 3-0 vs. line on Pac-12 road TY, covers last four in role. ASU no covers last four TY, butty Devils have won in upsets over Ducks past two years.
Slight to Arizona State, based on series trends.


UTAH at ARIZONA...Utes have covered last six TY, 7-2 last nine vs. line as visitor. Utes have won and covered last three meetings. Sumlin no covers last five TY, 2-8 vs. spread overall, 1-4 vs. line at home.
Utah, based on team trends.


SOUTH ALABAMA at GEORGIA STATE...USA has covered 5 of last 6 TY, GSU covered last two in series.
South Alabama, based on recent trends.


WASHINGTON at COLORADO...Huskies surprising 9-4 vs. spread last 13 since late LY. Buffs 3-8-1 last 12 Pac-12 vs. line.
Washington, based on recent trends.


TEXAS STATE at APP STATE... Bobcats no covers yet TY for Spavital vs. FBS foes (0-8-1). App 19-6-1 spread run since late 2017.
App State, based on team trends.


BOSTON COLLEGE at NOTRE DAME...BC has covered 3 of last 4 meetings since 2011, and upsets previous. Eagles 5-2 vs. line last seven TY, -1 as dog, Addazio now 13-3-1 as dog since 2017.
Boston College, based on team trends.


NEVADA at FRESNO STATE...Pack just 1-4 vs. line last 5 on MW road, though Jay Norvell 10-7 last 17 vs. number and has won and covered last two TY. Tedford just 2-6 vs. spread last eight TY.
Slight to Nevada, based on recent trends.


UCLA at USC...Bruins have only won once in last ten at Coliseum vs. SC but have covered two of last three as series visitor. Helton only 5-10 vs. points last 15 as home chalk.
Slight to UCLA, based on team trends.


CALIFORNIA at STANFORD...Axe! If Wilcox a dog note 4-2 mark in role TY, 14-7 in role since 2017. Cal has covered 6 of last 7 as visitor, and road team has covered last three in Big Game.
Cal, based on team and recent series trends.


OREGON STATE at WASHINGTON STATE...Beavs 7-2 last 9 vs. line TY and have covered all four on road TY. Cougs just 3-6 last 9 vs. line TY, but WSU 5-0 SU, 4-1 vs. line last five meetings.
Slight to Oregon State, based on recent trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at SOUTHERN MISS...Tops on 6-1 spread uptick and have covered last five as visitor since late LY.
Western Kentucky, based on team trends.


MARSHALL at CHARLOTTE...Herd has won and covered 3 of last 4 TY after La Tech win, also 5 in a row SU wins. Charlotte covers last 2 at home TY but just 2-5 vs. line last seven TY.
Slight to Marshall, based on team trends.


TEXAS at BAYLOR...Tom Herman as a dog again! He?s 15-4 in role since 2015 at Houston & UT. Road team has covered 4 of last 5 in series.
Texas, based on team and series trends.


UCF at TULANE...UCF has tailed off TY, just 1-6 vs. line last seven. Meanwhile Wave is 6-2 vs. spread its last eight TY.
Tulane, based on recent trends.


SMU at NAVY... Mids on 10-3 spread run since late 2018, also covered 5 of last 6 at Annapolis. Navy had beaten SMU three in a row prior to narrow 31-20 loss LY at Dallas.
Navy, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN STATE at RUTGERS...Ugh! No covers last six TY for Dantonio, MSU now 2-11 vs. spread last 13 reg season games. But Scarlet Knights on 2-7 spread skid.
Slight to Rutgers, based on team trends.


NORTH TEXAS at RICE...UNT 1-5 vs. line last six TY, Littrell 3-13 last 16 on board, 4-15 last 19 since early 2018.
Rice, based on team trends.


PITT at VIRGINIA TECH...Narduzzi 14-6 as road dog since 2015. Panthers have also covered last five in this series. Though Hokies surging with covers last 4 and 5 of last 6 TY.
Pitt, based on team and series trends.


LOUISIANA TECH at UAB...Skip had covered 4 straight and 6 of 7 before suspension-aided loss at Marshall. Prior to that, LT 17-7-1 as dog since 2014. UAB 11-1-1 last 13 vs. line vs. FBS at Legion Field, and Blazers have won and covered last two meetings.
UAB, based on team and series trends.


SYRACUSE at LOUISVILLE...Cuse no covers 7 of last 9 TY. Cards flattening a bit (3-4 last 7 vs. spread after 3-0 start) but Satterfield still 19-7-1 vs. line at App & ?Ville since late 2017.
Louisville, based on team trends.


HOUSTON at TULSA...Tulsa has covered 3 of last 4 and 4 of last 6 TY. Hurricane has covered last 3 meetings.
Tulsa, based on series trends.


TENNESSEE at MISSOURI...Vols surging 4-1 SU in current 5-game cover streak. Mizzou staggering with no covers last six. Tigers though have won last two years by identical 50-17 scores.
Tennessee, based on recent trends.


ARKANSAS at LSU...Tigers 7-2 vs. line against FBS foes this season, Orgeron 28-16 vs. spread since taking over early 2016. Hogs no covers last 4 TY, 3-9 last 12 vs. spread, though did cover vs. Orgeron LY.
LSU, based on team trends.


SAN JOSE STATE at UNLV...SJSU has covered last three and 6 of last 8 TY, also 4-1 vs. spread away. Sanchez just 6-13 vs. spread last 18 at Sam Boyd.
San Jose State, based on team trends.


UTEP at NEW MEXICO STATE...Ags 7-18 last 25 vs. spread in reg season since late 2017. Though NMSU has won and covered last two meetings.
Slight to UTEP, if dog, based on team trends.


COASTAL CAROLINA at ULM...Coastal has covered 7 of last 10 TY and is 4-1 vs. line away TY. ULM just 1-4 vs. spread at Malone Stadium TY, just 2-9 vs. spread last 11 as host, and 2-7 last 9 as chalk.
Coastal Carolina, based on team trends.


FLORIDA ATLANTIC at UTSA...Lane Train back on track with covers last 3 and 5 of last 6. Owls 5-0 vs. line away TY. UTSA 3-12 against spread last 15 at Alamodome.
FAU, based on team trends.


MIAMI-FLORIDA vs. FIU (at Marlins Park)...FIU no covers last 4 and 2-8 vs. line TY. Miami has covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 TY.
Miami, based on recent trends.


PENN STATE at OHIO STATE...Bucks 8-1 vs. line L9 TY. Though James Franklin has covered last 3 in series, and Nittany Lions 6-2 as dog since 2016.
Slight to Penn State, based on recent series trends.


BOISE STATE at UTAH STATE...Boise 37-18 since 2009 as visiting chalk. Broncos have covered last 2 and won last 3 vs. Utags.
Boise State, based on team and series trends.


SAN DIEGO STATE at HAWAII...Rocky Long 4-1 vs. line away TY, and if dog note 7-3 mark last 10 in role. Aztecs won and covered last 3 at Aloha Stadium. Rolovich 8-18-1 vs. spread at home since 2016.
San Diego State, based on team and series trends.

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Monty Andrews


HITTING THEIR STRIDE

The Buffalo Bulls are coming off a heart-stomping loss to Kent State ? but they're in great position to bounce back as they host the Toledo Rockets in Wednesday night MACtion. The Bulls watched a 27-6 fourth-quarter lead evaporate in a 30-27 loss to the Golden Flashes, but can take solace in the fact that their elite rush attack remained stout. Buffalo had 245 yards on the ground vs. Kent State (4.8 YPC) and now boasts the No. 17 rush attack in the nation at 226.5 yards per contest. And that's bad news for a Rockets defense that has allowed opposing teams to gain an average of 200.6 yards per game on the ground.

Add in the fact that Buffalo's run defense (88.7 YPG against, fifth-best in FBS) could make things a lot more difficult on Toledo's No. 14 rush attack, and we see the Bulls riding their ground advantage to a comfortable cover.


ZIP FOR AKRON?

You could hardly be blamed for wondering if the Akron Zips know which way the end zone is. The Zips come into Wednesday's MAC encounter with host Miami (Ohio) with the distinction of being the lowest-scoring team in the country at 10.6 points per game. Their 2019 lowlight reel includes a pair of shutout losses and four other games in which they scored seven or fewer points. The Redhawks are salivating at the prospect of facing such an anemic offense, especially after having built plenty of momentum on the defensive end by limiting Bowling Green to 275 total yards in last week's 44-3 victory.

The safest play here is to take the Under on Akron's team total ? but if you get a prop option on a Miami (Ohio) shutout, you should consider throwing a few bucks on it. This one could be ugly.


WHOP UPSIDE THE HEAD

The Indiana Hoosiers might be without one of the top receiving threats in the nation for Saturday's Big 12 encounter with the visiting Michigan Wolverines. Whop Philyor's status is in doubt after the junior wideout suffered a head injury and was forced out of last weekend's loss to the Penn State Nittany Lions. Head coach Tom Allen wouldn't comment on Philyor's status following practice earlier in the week, and he could be headed for a game-time designation. Philyor's absence would be a massive one for the Hoosiers; he ranks second in the Big Ten in receptions (61) and third in receiving yards (863).

Indiana is already behind the 8-ball against the powerhouse Wolverines, and not having Philyor at full strength ? or at all ? makes Michigan a strong ATS pick.


MOORE TIME OFF?

Purdue has fared well from a cover perspective in Rondale Moore's absence ? and they'll probably have to face that reality for at least one more game. Moore has been out since suffering a hamstring injury Sept. 28 against the Minnesota Golden Gophers, and Boilermakers head coach Jeff Brohm told reporters he wasn't "truly optimistic" that Moore would return for Saturday's game against the host Wisconsin Badgers. Moore got off to a blistering start to the 2019 season with 24 receptions for 344 yards and two touchdowns in his first two games, but has just five catches for 43 yards since.

Purdue is 5-1 ATS in six games with Moore sidelined, but will likely struggle against a Wisconsin defense that ranks third in the nation in pass defense and sixth in scoring defense. We like the Badgers to keep Purdue below its team point total.

 

[Cnotes53]

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 20
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

TOL at BUFF 07:30 PM
BUFF -8.5
U 54.0

AKR at M-OH 07:30 PM
M-OH -31.5
O 44.5

 

[Cnotes53]

MAC East champ Miami (Ohio) edges winless Akron 20-17
November 20, 2019

OXFORD, Ohio (AP) Jaylon Bester rushed for 128 yards and a touchdown and Miami (Ohio) withstood a stern challenge from winless Akron for a 20-17 victory on Wednesday night.

The RedHawks (7-4, 6-1) had already clinched the Mid-American Conference East Division berth to the MAC championship game but this victory assured an outright East title with their fifth straight win and fifth without a loss at home.

Miami had a 17-3 halftime lead over the Zips (0-11, 0-7) after a Sam Sloman 44-yard field goal and rushing touchdowns of 21 yards by Tyre Shelton and a 1-yard run by Bester.

The Zips closed within seven with a 64-yard pick-6 by John Lako before Sloman added another field goal just before the third quarter ended to make it 20-10. Kato Nelson passed 34 yards to Timothy Scippio as the Zips got within three early in the fourth quarter.

Miami's defense had five of their school-record 11 sacks on Akron's two final possessions to thwart the upset bid.


************************

Patterson scores 5 times, Buffalo tops Toledo 49-30
November 20, 2019

BUFFALO, N.Y. (AP) Jare Patterson ran for a career-high 192 yards and four touchdowns and Buffalo???s defense won the day as the Bulls became bowl eligible with a 49-30 win over Toledo on Wednesday night.

The two teams came in at the top of Mid-American Conference in rushing, led by the Rockets??? 245.7 yards with Buffalo at 226.5.

With Kevin Marks contributing 118 yards and a touchdown, the Bulls ran up 331 of their 503 yards on the ground. Buffalo???s run defense, seventh in the country at 88.4 yards, limited Toledo to 154.

Marks got the Bulls (6-5, 4-3) on the board by capping an 80-yard drive with a 4-yard touchdown run. Two snaps later Matt Otwinowski intercepted an Eli Peters pass and on the next play Kyle Vantrease and Patterson combined on a 24-yard pass play for a touchdown.

Toledo (6-5, 3-4 MAC) tied the game but Patterson???s first two rushing touchdowns helped Buffalo take a 28-17 lead at the half.

After a field goal for the Rockets early in the third quarter, Patterson capped two long drives and Vantrease another with short touchdown runs. Patterson, who never ran for more than two touchdowns in a game before, moved into fifth on the school rushing list.

Buffalo is bowl eligible for the third-straight season and fifth time in school history.

 

[Cnotes53]

CFB NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/20/2019...........1-3-0.........25.00%..........-11.50
11/19/2019...........3-1-0.........75.00%...........+9.50
11/16/2019........32-30-1.........51.61%...........-5.00
11/15/201.............3-1-0..........75.00%..........+9.50
11/14/2019...........1-3-0..........25.00%...........-11.50
11/13/2019...........3-1-0..........75.00%...........+9.50
11/12/2019...........2-2-0..........50.00%............-1.00
11/09/2019........32-27-0..........54.24%...........+11.50
11/08/2019...........2-2-0...........50.00%...........-1.00
11/06/2019...........2-0-0.........100.00%..........+10.00
11/05/2019...........1-3-0...........25.00%..........-11.50
11/02/2019........29-28-0,,,,,,,,,,50.88%............-9.00
11/01/2019.......... 1-1-0 ..........50.00%.......... -0.50

Totals................112-102-0....... 52.33%...........-4.00


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

11/20/2019.............1 - 1..............-0.50............0 - 2...............-11.00...............-11.50
11/19/2019.............2 - 0..............+10.00..........1 - 1..............-0.50.................+9.50
11/16/2019............20- 12............+40.00..........6 - 7...............-8.50................+31.50
11/15/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........1 - 1...............-0.50................+9.50
11/14/2019.............1 - 1..............-0.50.............0 - 2...............-11.00...............-11.50
11/13/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........1 - 1...............-0.50.................+9.50
11/12/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........0 - 2...............-11.00...............-1.00
11/09/2019............13 - 14...........-12.00............4 - 2...............+9.00...............-3.00
11/08/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........1 - 1................-0.50...............+9.50
11/06/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
11/05/2019.............1 - 1..............-0.50.............0 - 2...............-11.00..............-11.50
11/02/2019............12 - 16...........-28.00............8 - 4...............+18.00.............-10.00
11/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1................-5.50...............-0.50

TOTALS.................56 - 44...........+58.50...........23 - 26............-28.00...............+30.50


************************************

OCTOBER BEST BETS AND OPINIONS:
Totals...................142-133-0.........51.63%............-21.50

OCTOBER BEST BETS:
Totals....................73 - 57.........-79.30.............48 - 32............+36.50............-42.80

 

[Udog]

N.C. State at Georgia Tech
Joe Nelson

The second to last Thursday night college football game before the postseason has wound up as a battle of last place teams in the conference as N.C. State and Georgia Tech look to wrap up difficult seasons ahead of rivalry games next week. Here is a look at the two struggling teams and the Thursday night ESPN matchup.

N. C. State Wolfpack at Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Venue: Bobby Dodd Stadium at Historic Grant Field in Atlanta, Georgia
Time/TV: Thursday, November 21, 8:00 p.m. ET ESPN
Line: Georgia Tech -1?, Over/Under 49
Last Meeting: 2014 Georgia Tech (-3) 56, at NC State 23

A lot has changed in a year as Georgia Tech rattled off four consecutive late season ACC wins to reach 5-3 in league play last season. It would turn out to be the final season for Paul Johnson in Atlanta and the Yellow Jackets had disappointing results in the finale vs. Georgia and in a bowl loss to Minnesota.

Georgia Tech seemed to be an attractive landing spot for head coaching candidates as this wasn?t a complete rebuild inheriting a decent team that had been competitive in most recent seasons. The ACC Coastal has also been a wide open division in recent years with Georgia Tech winning the division four times in the 14 seasons of its existence and as recently as 2014.

Johnson ran an option offense as it would mean a significant transition in most scenarios and Temple head coach Geoff Collins was chosen to take over the program. Collins was a graduate assistant at Georgia Tech to start his coaching career before bouncing around as an assistant at several different schools, notably as a SEC defensive coordinator at Mississippi State and Florida before posting back-to-back winning seasons at Temple.

Collins drew a tough assignment in his first game with the Yellow Jackets with an August game at Clemson, but Georgia Tech won vs. South Florida in the home opener before an ugly four-game slide that included losing to The Citadel and a 24-2 loss against his former team. Georgia Tech did deliver a big upset win at Miami in October, but and played competitively in November losses to Coastal finalists Pittsburgh and Virginia before an ugly 45-0 loss hosting Virginia Tech last week to fall to 2-8. With a finale with national contender Georgia, this will likely be the team?s final opportunity for a win this season.

The offense still leans on the running game with nearly 1,500 rushing yards, but last year?s team had over 4,000 yards and the per carry average has dropped from 5.7 to 4.0. Three different quarterbacks have played significantly for the Yellow Jackets with similar marginal results. Freshman James Graham has led the team in recent games and has a 47 percent completion rate while providing a limited rushing threat, though he did play well late in the overtime win over Miami.

The Georgia Tech defense has already allowed more points in ACC play than last season with still a game to go. Allowing 4.8 yards per rush, stopping the run has been a problem with 202 yards per game allowed on the ground. The pass defense has typically been adequate most weeks for the Yellow Jackets but Collins has a lot of work to do to restore the program back to a respectable level next season.

Dave Doeren is 47-40 at N.C. State riding 9-4 seasons the past two years. Doeren was brought up as candidate other schools might consider poaching from Raleigh last winter particular given his Kansas upbringing and openings at both Big XII Kansas schools last season. Despite some rumors, he wound up signing an extension in the spring to stay at N.C. State. This season has been a disaster by the recent standards of the program though 6-6 is still possible with this winnable road game and then a finale at home with rival North Carolina.

Quarterback play has also been a problem for the Wolfpack with long time starter Ryan Finley graduating and now playing with the Bengals in the NFL. With 93 points in six games, N.C. State has been by far the lowest scoring team in the ACC, but it can?t all be pinned on the offense with the defense allowing nearly 37 points per game in league play.

Sophomore Matthew McKay won the starting quarterback job and despite a 2-1 start he turned in limited production in the first three games while appearing overmatched in the loss at West Virginia. Sophomore Bailey Hockman stepped in and wasn?t much better, though he led the win over Syracuse. Freshman Devin Leary has started the past three games with similar numbers in three double-digit defeats.

The N.C. State defense has some serious talent but the roster has been incomplete most of the season, particularly on the defensive line. Sophomore Xavier Lyas left the program a few weeks ago while captain James Smith-Williams has been in-and-out of the lineup this season. N.C. State out-rushed five of the first six foes it faced with only a slight disadvantage vs. West Virginia, but in the past four games (all losses), the Wolfpack are -455 is rushing. The N.C. State run defense does feature dramatically better numbers than Georgia Tech on the season for the main disparity in comparing the mediocre numbers for these teams.

While this game is inconsequential in the national and ACC picture, the Thursday night game offers an opportunity for a second ACC win on both sides and a chance for players to stand out in a more manageable matchup. Prospects will be brighter next season though for N.C. State there is still the allure of trying to maintain its five-year bowl streak.

Series History:

These teams haven?t met regularly since the Coastal/Atlantic split of the ACC, sitting in opposing divisions. Georgia Tech has won 17 of 27 meetings S/U since 1983 and is on a 17-8-1 ATS run but the last meeting was back in 2014, Doeren?s second season at N.C. State. The Wolfpack has won S/U & ATS as an underdog in the past two trips to Atlanta in 2005 and 2010.

N.C. State Trends:

N.C. State is 0-4 S/U & ATS on the road this season, allowing 44 or more points in three of those games. Under Doeren, the record is near-even at 15-19 S/U and 16-17-1 ATS in road games, though just 11-16 S/U in ACC road games. Since 2013, NC State is just 7-11 ATS as a road underdog and Doeren is 6-29 S/U and 13-22 ATS as an underdog in any venue at NC State, including seven straight misses going back to 2017.

Georgia Tech Trends:

The Yellow Jackets are 0-5 ATS at home this season under Collins including just one narrow four-point S/U win early in the season vs. South Florida. Georgia Tech has covered in just two of the past 12 home games going back to 2017 despite a strong home record under Johnson overall going 51-21 S/U and 35-31-2 ATS at home in his eleven seasons.

 

[Udog]

by: Monty Andrews


WOLFPACK WOEFUL ON THE ROAD

The NC State Wolfpack need wins in their final two games to earn bowl eligibility ? and the first part of that challenge could prove difficult as they visit Georgia Tech on Thursday. While the Yellow Jackets have struggled all season (2-8 SU, 2-8 ATS) and are coming off a humbling 45-0 loss to Virginia Tech, they had shown plenty of fight in the three games previous to that and will have the home-field edge Thursday night against a Wolfpack team that has been downright dismal on the road. NC State is 0-4 SU and ATS in away games this season and has allowed an average of 41 points in those games.

While we aren't ready to crown Georgia Tech a winner given how it has played, we do feel confident that the Yellow Jackets can do enough on offense to surpass their team total.


HALMER IN DOUBT FOR SATURDAY

The Penn State Nittany Lions might have to face the powerhouse Ohio State Buckeyes without their top receiver in the lineup. K.J. Hamler's status is very much in doubt has he recovers from an undisclosed injury suffered in the first quarter of last week's victory over the Indiana Hoosiers. Hamler spent time in the medial tent immediately after he was hit on a kick return, and spent the rest of the game on the sidelines. His absence would be a significant loss for the Nittany Lions, with Hamler entering the weekend ranked fourth in the Big Ten Conference in receiving yards (791) and receiving scores (eight).

The line for this game is heavily favored toward the Buckeyes, and the potential absence of Hamler is only going to send more bettors toward Ohio State. We like the Under on Penn State's team total in hostile territory.


WHO'S STARTING IN HAWAII

The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors have yet to decide on a starting quarterback for Saturday's Mountain West encounter with the visiting San Diego State Aztecs. Both Cole McDonald and Chevan Cordeiro have been benched for one another in the previous two games, though Hawaii went on to win both games while averaging 31.5 points per game in that span. McDonald leads the conference in passing scores (25) and ranks second in passing yards (3,007) but has also thrown 12 interceptions, second-most in the Mountain West. Cordeiro has thrown for 727 yards with six TDs and three INTs.

It shouldn't matter who starts for the Rainbow Warriors in this one: They've averaged better than 35 points per game this season and will look to keep the pace up against a formidable Aztecs defense. We favor the Over here.


MASON IS (PROBABLY) FINE

North Texas is expected to have quarterback Mason Fine back in action this weekend against Rice. Fine suffered a head injury in a 52-17 loss to Louisiana Tech on Nov. 9, but had an extra week to heal up and has been trending in the right direction heading into Saturday's meeting with the Owls. Fine is having a terrific season with the Mean Green, completing nearly 63 percent of his passes for 2,659 yards (third-most in Conference USA) with 27 touchdowns, five shy of the career high he set last year. Jason Bean would be in line to start if Fine can't go this weekend.

With North Texas needing to win out to be bowl-eligible and Fine also chasing a personal milestone, the Mean Green are in good position to cover against an Owls team that has lost all five of its home games to date.

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 21
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

NCST at GT 08:00 PM

GT +1.0

O 46.5

 

[Cnotes53]

Georgia Tech holds off NC State 28-26
November 21, 2019

ATLANTA (AP) James Graham threw three touchdown passes, including two to Ahmarean Brown, and Georgia Tech stopped a potential tying 2-point play with about five minutes remaining to beat North Carolina State 28-26 on Thursday night.

Georgia Tech led 21-3 at halftime and 28-13 to start the fourth quarter before holding off N.C. State's comeback. The Wolfpack rallied on Devin Leary's 4-yard touchdown pass to Cary Angeline and Ricky Person's 1-yard scoring run.

Person's run, with 5:17 remaining, cut the Yellow Jackets' lead to two points. N.C. State's 2-point try failed when a pass from Leary, who was pressured by Christian Campbell, was incomplete.

Graham also ran for a touchdown as Georgia Tech (3-8, 2-6 Atlantic Coast Conference) snapped a three-game losing streak.

N.C. State (4-7, 1-6) suffered its fifth straight loss in the matchup of last-place teams in the conference.

Georgia Tech needed an emotional boost after last week's embarrassing 45-0 home loss to Virginia Tech. A quick-strike touchdown drive to open the game filled the need.

On the game's first play, Graham threw a 54-yard pass to Malachi Carter. Two plays later, Graham found Brown in the right side of the end zone for a 17-yard touchdown pass.

Graham's 13-yard scoring pass to former starting quarterback Tobias Oliver gave the Yellow Jackets a 14-0 lead - their first two-touchdown advantage of the season.

A roughing the passer penalty against N.C. State linebacker Isaiah Moore extended a drive which ended with Graham's 11-yard touchdown pass to Brown for a 21-3 halftime lead.

N.C. State's defense finally came through with its first two takeaways in ACC games. N.C. State entered the game ranked last among 130 FBS teams with five forced turnovers overall.

The drought ended when Justice Dingle sacked Graham, forcing a fumble recovered by Ja'Quon Griffin at the N.C. State 15 late in the first quarter.

Graham lost another fumble early in the fourth quarter. Larrell Murchison's recovery set up Leary's 4-yard touchdown pass to Cary Angeline, trimming Georgia Tech's lead to 28-20.

Brown's two touchdown catches give him seven for the season to match Georgia Tech's freshman record set by Calvin Johnson in 2004.

THE TAKEAWAY

N.C. State: The Wolfpack gained 457 yards in a strong offensive performance, including 230 on the ground. Knight ran for 100 yards and Jordan Houston added 89. Still, it wasn't enough to end the losing streak as the Wolfpack gave up 266 yards rushing.

Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets enjoyed a strong start in their recovery from the lopsided loss to Virginia Tech. Graham lost two fumbles but posted big production with 112 yards rushing and 129 yards passing. Jordan Mason ran for 141 yards and couldn't be stopped as the Yellow Jackets held the ball for the final 5 minutes.

UP NEXT

N.C. State will try to stretch its three-game winning streak against state rival North Carolina on Nov. 30.

Georgia Tech will close its season against No. 4 Georgia on Nov. 30. It will be the Yellow Jackets' third straight home game. Georgia has won two straight, eight of the last 10 and 15 of the last 18 in the series.

 

[Cnotes53]

CFB NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/21/2019...........2-0-0........100.00%.........+10.00
11/20/2019...........1-3-0.........25.00%..........-11.50
11/19/2019...........3-1-0.........75.00%...........+9.50
11/16/2019........32-30-1.........51.61%...........-5.00
11/15/201.............3-1-0..........75.00%..........+9.50
11/14/2019...........1-3-0..........25.00%...........-11.50
11/13/2019...........3-1-0..........75.00%...........+9.50
11/12/2019...........2-2-0..........50.00%............-1.00
11/09/2019........32-27-0..........54.24%...........+11.50
11/08/2019...........2-2-0...........50.00%...........-1.00
11/06/2019...........2-0-0.........100.00%..........+10.00
11/05/2019...........1-3-0...........25.00%..........-11.50
11/02/2019........29-28-0,,,,,,,,,,50.88%............-9.00
11/01/2019.......... 1-1-0 ..........50.00%.......... -0.50

Totals................114-102-0....... 52.77%...........+6.00


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS

11/21/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00...........1 - 0...............+5.00................+10.00
11/20/2019.............1 - 1..............-0.50............0 - 2...............-11.00...............-11.50
11/19/2019.............2 - 0..............+10.00..........1 - 1..............-0.50.................+9.50
11/16/2019............20- 12............+40.00..........6 - 7...............-8.50................+31.50
11/15/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........1 - 1...............-0.50................+9.50
11/14/2019.............1 - 1..............-0.50.............0 - 2...............-11.00...............-11.50
11/13/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........1 - 1...............-0.50.................+9.50
11/12/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........0 - 2...............-11.00...............-1.00
11/09/2019............13 - 14...........-12.00............4 - 2...............+9.00...............-3.00
11/08/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........1 - 1................-0.50...............+9.50
11/06/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
11/05/2019.............1 - 1..............-0.50.............0 - 2...............-11.00..............-11.50
11/02/2019............12 - 16...........-28.00............8 - 4...............+18.00.............-10.00
11/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1................-5.50...............-0.50

TOTALS.................57 - 44...........+63.50...........24 - 26............-23.00...............+40.50


************************************

OCTOBER BEST BETS AND OPINIONS:
Totals...................142-133-0.........51.63%............-21.50

OCTOBER BEST BETS:
Totals....................73 - 57.........-79.30.............48 - 32............+36.50............-42.80

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday?s 6-pack

College hoop teams getting highest %age of their points on 3-pointers:

? North Florida 53.8%

? Virginia Tech 51%

? Villanova 50%

? Bowling Green 46.8%

? TCU, Illinois-Chicago 46%

? Binghamton 45.9%

Quote of the Day
?He had a great brain and was a great thinker. He was an intellect that I spent every morning with before we played a game. I spent more time with him than any other player. Fred was a special, special human being who will be missed.?
Fran Tarkenton, talking about the late Fred Cox, his old teammate with Minnesota

Friday?s quiz
What team did OJ Simpson finish his NFL career with?

Thursday?s quiz
Florida State basketball coach Leonard Hamilton was once head coach of the Washington Wizards.

Wednesday?s quiz
Dan Marino is the quarterback who has won the most games (147) without winning an NFL championship.

*************************

Friday?s List of 13: Random stuff with weekend here?.

13) Texans 20, Colts 17? Houston takes over first place in AFC South; they outgained the Colts by 100 yards (396-296). Indy threw ball for only 121 yards, even though Houston?s secondary is banged-up. Colts converted 9-15 3rd down plays, but fall to 6-5.

12) Disappointing but hardly surprising that major league baseball may want to implement a plan to shrink minor league baseball, by as many as 100 teams.

MLB enjoys an exemption from federal antitrust law that has lasted since the Supreme Court?s decision in the 1922 case Federal Baseball Club v. National League; that exemption could be used as leverage by Congress against shrinking the minor leagues.

Minor league baseball is affordable fun in lot of smaller towns around the country, and also provides a decent amount of jobs; would be sad if the greed of major league owners eliminated those jobs, and eliminated fun for lot of people in smaller towns.

11) Speaking of the minor leagues, the Class A Rancho Cucamonga Quakes will be giving away a Cody Bellinger/Mike Trout ?double MVP bobblehead? at a 2020 home game this summer; the Quakes are only team both Bellinger/Trout have played for.

10) Chicago White Sox signed C Yasmani Grandal to a 4-year, $73M contract.

9) Rough night for the Pac-12:
? Omaha 85, Washington State 77
? Coastal Carolina 79, Utah 57
? Duke 87, California 52
? Arizona 71, South Dakota State 64
? Stanford 80, William & Mary 50
? UCLA xx, Hofstra xx

8) Bucks 137, Trailblazers 129? Portland is a disappointing 5-10. Antetokounmpo scored 24 points, had 19 rebounds, 15 assists for the Bucks.

7) Notre Dame 64, Toledo 59 OT? Rockets were 7-point underdogs; they blew a 5-point lead in the last minute of regulation. Irish hit a 3-pointer at buzzer to force OT.

Willie Jackson had 11 points, 20 rebounds for the Rockets.

6) On November 21, 1976, the classic movie Rocky was released; it cost $1M to make, and grossed $225M worldwide. It was nominated for 10 Academy Awards- for better or worse, they?ve made seven sequels.

5) The football field in the new dome the Rams/Chargers will play in starting next year will be 100 feet below ground level, and is at the center of a construction site three times the size of Disneyland. It will wind up costing over $5B; thats billion, with a B.

4) Charlotte Hornets? Devonte Graham is the 4th player in NBA history to make 50+ 3?s and dish out 100+ assists in his team?s first 15 games of the season.

3) Georgetown 82, Texas 66? Patrick Ewing?s Hoyas play Duke tonight on the court where Ewing called home during his stellar NBA career. Texas led this game by 5 at the half.

2) Western Carolina 96, Jacksonville 94 2OT? Catamounts were down 15 at the half, get their first road win in three tries. Tough loss for Artis Gilmore?s alma mater.

1) RIP Fred Cox, 80, the Vikings? all-time leading scorer and the inventor of the Nerf football. Cox finished his career with 1,365 points and led the Vikings in scoring 11 years in a row.

Cox became a chiropractor after his kicking days were done.

 

[Cnotes53]

Colorado State at Wyoming
November 19, 2019
By Matt Blunt

Colorado State at Wyoming
Venue/Location: War Memorial Stadium, Laramie, Wyoming
Time/TV: Friday, Nov. 22 (ESPN2, 9:30 p.m. ET)
Line: Wyoming -7, Total 50.5

After being able to get there last week with the San Diego State Aztecs knocking off Fresno State and remaining atop the West division in the Mountain West, this week we get a game from the East division of that conference with Colorado State in Wyoming.

This game doesn't mean anything for either side in terms of conference titles, but for Colorado State, finishing the year out with two wins would get them to six wins on the year and bowl eligible. Wyoming's already there, and after two consecutive road losses against the likes of Utah State and Boise State to eliminate Wyoming from conference contention, hard to imagine the Cowboys will look anything like their best in this spot.

So will Colorado State be a live underdog here, or will the better team go out and prevail at home under the lights?

Getting bowl eligible can be a nice motivational edge to teams this time of year, but just because the number may be close to six wins, it doesn't mean that the reality matches it. Yes, Colorado State can get to six wins if they win this game and their finale, but that finale is at home against a ranked Boise State team. Chances are the Rams are going to be sizable underdogs there and likely won't win the game.

So while hope still remains in that locker room, if things go south early for Colorado State in this one, we might see them fold up shop rather early. It's the potential for that to happen that's keeping me off taking the points with Colorado State in this game, although I do expect them to be playing well from the outset while hope still remains strong. But they are still a 4-6 SU team for a reason, and getting off to a bad start is a very real possibility at all.

All of that adds up to my belief that the total is the much better option here. And while Wyoming is definitely noted for their 'under' ability this year (3-7 ATS), and Colorado State's been a winning 'under' team (4-6 O/U), this total does seem a little low.

Let me lay it out like this, in terms of potential outcomes on the side goes, there are really four options to look at: Either Colorado State wins SU by a big margin (we will call it more then 7 points), Colorado State wins SU by a small margin (7 or less points), or Wyoming wins in SU by a small margin (7 or less) or by a big margin (7+ points). Of those four options, you can argue that any Colorado State outright win would likely suggest the 'over' hitting ? Colorado State has scored at least 35 points in all four of their wins this year ? and even Wyoming by a large margin has a great chance of sailing 'over' this total as well. A Wyoming blowout win would also likely come from either a horrible start filled with turnovers for Colorado State, and/or them falling behind too early and just giving up after that. Either way, points will be put up in those cases.

How I see it, three of the four potential ways this game turns out lends itself to the 'over', and it's not like a Wyoming SU win by less then 7 points would automatically mean 'under' either. That case means it's a Colorado State ATS win, which means the Rams played well enough for a long enough time in the contest, and Colorado State doesn't play ?well enough for long enough? in a 24-21 type game. In fact, in all but one of Colorado State's games this year, the winning team has ultimately scored at least 34 points.

Wyoming's offense may not be known as one that can put up points in a hurry, or plenty of points in general (they score just 26.9 points per game on the year), but even if you expect them to win the game outright, nine of 10 times in Colorado State games this year that winner has scored at least 34 points. Going to be awfully hard for Wyoming to win with 34 points and this game not go 'over' the total.

So, with most Colorado State outright victories likely cashing 'over' tickets, and Wyoming outright wins of any fashion likely seeing them score 30+, this game seems to be one where the 'over' is the only way to go. Remember, Colorado State has still got to believe they can get to a bowl game at kickoff here, and the longer they hang around and/or are putting up points on this Wyoming defense, the more confident they'll grow for this game at least. That should lead to more points being scored in turn, as like I said, Colorado State isn't a program that gets involved in too many games where it's a race to 20 points.

And should Colorado State's bowl eligibility dream die early on here, while that means Wyoming's already built a big lead and gets to go up against a defense that's already relatively bad, and now wants to be anywhere but there. The Rams offensive guys will still look to get their numbers in garbage time, and again, points will be had.

Finally, with the reality being that both programs have cashed lots of 'under' tickets lately ? Colorado State has a 1-5 O/U record last six games and Wyoming is 0-4 O/U last four ? this low total is warranted statistically. But situationally, this game makes a lot of sense to be a high-scoring one.

Colorado State's got to go into this game believing they can win and could become disinterested if the start is bad, while Wyoming's already a disinterested team entering the game, with no conference goals to play for, and already being at six wins has them likely in some bowl game played before December 20th.

Last year these two teams put up 55 points for an 'over' ticket to cash, and that came after it was 0-0 after the 1st quarter, and 3-0 at the half. Don't think the end result changes here, although I would expect Colorado State to go out and try to establish a nice lead early on and then maybe hold on from there. Last year's 2nd half explosion shows you how good this Colorado State defense is at giving up points in a hurry, and I would not be surprised to see both teams in the 30's when all is said and done on Friday.

Best Bet: Over

YTD Record: 6-7 ATS

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CSU at WYO 09:30 PM

CSU +6.5

O 51.0

 

[Cnotes53]

COLORADO STATE @ WYOMING
Final Score Score
Teams Odds 1 2 3 4 T ATS
113 COLST 51 0 7 0 0 7 Under: 24
114 WYO ? -5 0 7 7 3 17 Cover: 5
Line Movements

 

[Cnotes53]

CFB NOVEMBER OPINIONS AND BEST BETS: ALL BASED ON 5 UNITS

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

11/22/2019...........0-2-0..........00.00%.........-11.00
11/21/2019...........2-0-0........100.00%.........+10.00
11/20/2019...........1-3-0.........25.00%..........-11.50
11/19/2019...........3-1-0.........75.00%...........+9.50
11/16/2019........32-30-1.........51.61%...........-5.00
11/15/201.............3-1-0..........75.00%..........+9.50
11/14/2019...........1-3-0..........25.00%...........-11.50
11/13/2019...........3-1-0..........75.00%...........+9.50
11/12/2019...........2-2-0..........50.00%............-1.00
11/09/2019........32-27-0..........54.24%...........+11.50
11/08/2019...........2-2-0...........50.00%...........-1.00
11/06/2019...........2-0-0.........100.00%..........+10.00
11/05/2019...........1-3-0...........25.00%..........-11.50
11/02/2019........29-28-0,,,,,,,,,,50.88%............-9.00
11/01/2019.......... 1-1-0 ..........50.00%.......... -0.50

Totals................114-104-0....... 52.29%...........-5.00


*****************************

BEST BETS:

DATE........................ATS.............UNITS. ............O/U...............UNITS.............TOTALS


11/22/2019.............0 - 1..............-5.50............0 - 1...............-5.50.................-11.00
11/21/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00...........1 - 0...............+5.00................+10.00
11/20/2019.............1 - 1..............-0.50............0 - 2...............-11.00...............-11.50
11/19/2019.............2 - 0..............+10.00..........1 - 1..............-0.50.................+9.50
11/16/2019............20- 12............+40.00..........6 - 7...............-8.50................+31.50
11/15/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........1 - 1...............-0.50................+9.50
11/14/2019.............1 - 1..............-0.50.............0 - 2...............-11.00...............-11.50
11/13/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........1 - 1...............-0.50.................+9.50
11/12/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........0 - 2...............-11.00...............-1.00
11/09/2019............13 - 14...........-12.00............4 - 2...............+9.00...............-3.00
11/08/2019.............2 - 0.............+10.00...........1 - 1................-0.50...............+9.50
11/06/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............1 - 0...............+5.00..............+10.00
11/05/2019.............1 - 1..............-0.50.............0 - 2...............-11.00..............-11.50
11/02/2019............12 - 16...........-28.00............8 - 4...............+18.00.............-10.00
11/01/2019.............1 - 0.............+5.00.............0 - 1................-5.50...............-0.50

TOTALS.................57 - 45...........+58.00...........24 - 27............-17.50...............+40.50


************************************

OCTOBER BEST BETS AND OPINIONS:
Totals...................142-133-0.........51.63%............-21.50

OCTOBER BEST BETS:
Totals....................73 - 57.........-79.30.............48 - 32............+36.50............-42.80

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack

College hoop teams getting lowest %age of their points on 3-pointers:

? Grambling 7.6%

? Sacramento State 9.8%

? Southern Utah 13.3%

? Hampton 13.8%

? Kentucky 14.7%

? Southern Miss 15.3%

Quote of the Day
?I believe that sex is one of the most beautiful, natural, wholesome things that money can buy.? Steve Martin

Saturday?s quiz
Who was the head coach of the last Pac-12 team to win the national title in basketball?

Friday?s quiz
OJ Simpson finished his NFL career with the 49ers.

Thursday?s quiz
Florida State basketball coach Leonard Hamilton was once head coach of the Washington Wizards.

*********************

Saturday?s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind??

13) Xavier 75, UConn 74 2OT? Best college hoop game of the young season; six guys fouled out, three for both teams, who will be Big East rivals starting next season.

Xavier won despite going 16-26 on foul line; UConn was 25-27.

Musketeers will play Florida in the finals of the Charleston Classic Sunday night.

12) Duke 81, Georgetown 73? It is usually pretty fun to watch a coach go against Duke for the first time, how he handles getting screwed over in key situations. Patrick Ewing was a great player, but he is a young coach, and he didn?t enjoy this game very much.

Duke was 21-29 on the foul line, Georgetown 11-18. Go figure.

11) Temple 70, USC 61? Nice win for the AAC, and Temple?s rookie coach Aaron McKie.

10) Clippers 122, Rockets 119? Wouldn?t mind if these teams hooked up for a best-of-7 playoff series next spring. Lou Williams scored 26 points in the 2nd half, after not scoring in the first.

9) Myrtle Beach tournament:
? Villanova beat Mississippi State 83-76. High level game.
? Baylor beat Coastal Carolina 77-65; Coastal?s best guard hurt his knee in this game.

Villanova-Baylor is an interesting game Sunday, in the tournament final.

8) Utah State 80, LSU 78? Aggies were down 19 with 16:32 left; big win for the Mountain West Conference, which could use some quality wins.

7) NFL stuff:
? Bears? QB Mitchell Trubisky will start Sunday.
? Lions? QB Matthew Stafford (back) will miss his 3rd straight game.

6) Seattle Mariners agreed to a six-year, $24M contract with first baseman/prospect Evan White, who spent last season with the Double-A Arkansas Travelers, where he hit 18 HRs with 55 RBI in 92 games last year.

White is the first player ever at the AA level to get a long-term extension.

5) White Sox gave 1B/DH Jose Abreu a 3-year, $50M contract extension; somehow Abreu will make less money than C Yasmani Grandal, who signed with the Pale Hose this week, getting $73M for four years.

4) Missouri State 71, St Joe?s 69? Nice win for the Bears, who?ve used transfers to elevate their talent level; Lamont West played 110 games for West Virginia. Missouri State figures to contend in the Missouri Valley Conference this winter.

3) 76ers 115, Spurs 104? San Antonio has lost eight games in a row.

2) Cleveland State 47, NC-Wilmington 46? Vikings were ravaged by transfers after their coaching change; this was their first D-I win this season, five tries.

1) Nuggets 96, Celtics 92? Big week for Denver, beating the Rockets/Celtics at home.

 

[Cnotes53]

by: Monty Andrews


CONFLICTING STRENGTHS

The Bronze Boot will be up for grabs Friday night as the Wyoming Cowboys put their unbeaten home record on the line against the Colorado State Rams. Wyoming's 20th-ranked rush offense (219.8 yards per game) has been driving the bus all season, and should play well against a Rams run defense that has been torched for nearly 207 yards per game on the ground.

However, the Rams have their own offensive advantage coming into this one: They rank 12th in the nation in passing offense (315.7 yards per game) and should feast on a Wyoming secondary that ranks near the bottom of the FBS (282.1 YPG allowed).

Colorado State will take to the air, and Wyoming will get it done on the ground. And while this one might be too close to call from an ATS perspective, we feel confident that the Over will prevail.


SPARTANS SEE A SIZABLE SPREAD

The Michigan State Spartans might not be playing like it, but oddsmakers have them as an enormous favorite for Saturday's Big Ten showdown with host Rutgers. Not only do the Spartans come into the game on a five-game losing streak, they've scored more than 10 points just once in that span while losing four of them by 20+ points. Their fortunes might very well change this weekend against a Rutgers unit that has lost eight of nine while ranking 127th in scoring offence (15.3) and 126th in points allowed (38.6).

That said, MSU needed everything it had to pull out a 14-10 home victory in last year's meeting. Nothing in their recent history suggests the Spartans should be three-touchdown road favorites against any FBS team ? not even Rutgers. We like the home team and the points.


RUNNING THE SHOW

The Notre Dame Fighting Irish might not have enough time to make it to a New Year's Six bowl game, but they're still in great position to finish strong as they host the Boston College Eagles on Saturday. The Fighting Irish have bounced back with three consecutive wins since that one-sided loss to Michigan ? and their run defense has been particularly solid, having held Navy (4.8 yards per carry), Duke (3.2) and Virginia Tech (2.8) well below their season rushing averages.

Extending that run will be pivotal against a Boston College team that ranks fifth in the nation in rushing (281.7 yards per game). Expect host Notre Dame to make life difficult for A.J. Dillon and the rest of the Eagles' rush attack ? and with Boston College struggling mightily in the passing game, we favor the Under on their team total.


GOING UNDER

Their dream of an undefeated season is over, but there's still plenty at stake for the Baylor Bears as they tangle with the visiting Texas Longhorns on Saturday. The Bears have the Big 12 championship in their sights despite watching a 28-3 lead evaporate in last week's stunning 34-31 loss to Oklahoma.

While Baylor is known for having one of the most impressive offenses in the conference, it'll be the defense in the spotlight Saturday as the Bears look to rebound after allowing the Sooners to rack up 525 total yards. Texas has limited opponents to 47 total points in its past two games after allowing 30+ in five straight.

With both teams having something left to play for, and the Under having cashed in six consecutive meetings (with only one of those games exceeding 45 total points), we like the Longhorns and Bears to finish below the total.

 

[Cnotes53]

Texas A&M at Georgia
November 22, 2019
By Brian Edwards

Texas A&M Aggies at No. 4 Georgia Bulldogs
Venue/Location: Sanford Stadium, Athens, Georgia
Time/TV: Saturday, Nov. 23, 3:30 p.m. ET
Line: Georgia -13, Total 44

Texas A&M entered the SEC in 2012, but it?ll be facing Georgia for the first time Saturday afternoon in Athens. The Aggies are in the role of spoilers over the next two weeks, as they face No. 4 Georgia and No. 1 LSU.

Georgia controls its own destiny to get to the College Football Playoff, but a loss would knock them out of the picture.

As of late Friday afternoon, most books had Georgia (9-1 straight up, 6-4 against the spread) installed as a 13-point home favorite. The total was 44 points and the Aggies were +400 on the money line. For first-half wagers, most spots had UGA favored by seven with a total of 22 points.

UGA is 5-1 SU but just 2-4 ATS in six home games. The Bulldogs have won four games in a row since taking its lone defeat of the season to South Carolina (20-17 in double overtime). They?re off a 21-14 win at Auburn as three-point favorites.

UGA led 21-0 going into the fourth quarter at Jordan-Hare Stadium. Auburn finally got on the board when Bo Nix found Eli Stove for a three-yard scoring strike with 10:04 remaining. After a quick stop defensively, Nix?s two-yard TD run cut the deficit to 21-14 with 7:03 remaining. Also, it was the first time UGA?s defense gave up a TD on the ground all year.

When Auburn got the ball back trailing by only seven, you could sense another one of those wild finishes coming on The Plains. There have been plenty during Gus Malzahn?s tenure, including the 4th-down TD pass off the deflection to beat UGA in 2013 and the kick-six return against Alabama.

But maybe Gus?s magic ? and his time left at Auburn ? has run out? Facing a fourth-and-three play at crunch time, Nix had a man open for an easy first-down conversion, but his target couldn?t handle the pass that was thrown well behind him.

Jake Fromm completed only 13-of-28 throws for 110 yards, but he had three TD passes without an interception. D?Andre Swift finished with 106 rushing yards on 17 carries, while Dominick Blaylock had two receptions for 50 yards and one TD. Brian Herrien and Eli Wolf also had TD catches.

Georgia owns notable wins vs. Notre Dame (23-17), at Tennessee (43-14), vs. Kentucky (21-0) vs. Florida (24-17 in Jacksonville) and vs. Missouri (27-0 with the Tigers playing without star QB Kelly Bryant). Kirby Smart?s squad has posted a 4-4 spread record in eight games as a double-digit ?chalk.?

Fromm, a true junior out of Warner Robbins, GA., has completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 1,968 yards with a 16/3 touchdown-to-interception ratio. All three picks were thrown to Israel Mukuamu in the loss to the Gamecocks.

Fromm has been throwing to a young and inexperienced group of wide receivers. It hasn?t helped that his favorite target, Lawrence Cager, has been playing through a chronic shoulder injury that?s kept him on the sidelines in the second half of UGA?s last two games. Cager has 33 receptions for 476 yards and four TDs.

George Pickens has 30 catches for 400 yards and four TDs, while Blaylock has 14 grabs for 259 yards and four TDs. Demetris Robertson has 23 receptions for 249 yards and three TDs.

Swift has 1,027 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 6.3 yards-per-carry average. Herrien has run for 390 yards and five scores, averaging 5.1 YPC.

UGA is ranked sixth in the nation in total defense, 20th at defending the pass, third in run defense and second in scoring ?D,? holding foes to an average of only 10.5 points per game.

Texas A&M (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) is a double-digit underdog for the fifth time since Jimbo Fisher arrived in College Station. The Aggies are 3-1 ATS in the four previous instances, including a 24-10 loss at Clemson in Week 2. They took the cash against the Tigers as 17-point underdogs thanks to a TD for the backdoor cover in the final seconds.

Texas A&M is 1-1 SU and 2-0 ATS on the road this year. Fisher?s squad won 24-17 at Ole Miss to cover the number as a six-point road favorite on Oct. 19.

The Aggies are 4-2 in SEC play, losing at home to both Auburn (28-20) and Alabama (47-28). They have SEC wins vs. Arkansas (31-27 at Jerry World in Arlington, TX), vs. Mississippi State (49-30) and South Carolina (30-6).

Texas A&M dominated the Gamecocks, who were playing without star WR Bryan Edwards. The Aggies enjoyed healthy advantages in first downs (27-15), total offense (540-260) and time of possession (41:39-18:21).

Junior QB Kellen Mond completed 20-of-33 passes for 221 yards and one TD without an interception. He also had 47 rushing yards and one TD on 10 attempts. True freshman RB Isaiah Spiller ran for 129 yards on 24 carries, while Cordarrian Richardson turned six totes into 130 rushing yards and one TD.

True freshman tight end Jalen Wydermyer had five receptions for 79 yards, and Quartney Davis had five catches for 48 yards.

Mond has connected on 64.0 percent of his passes for 2,435 yards with an 18/6 TD-INT ratio. He has 400 rushing yards, seven TDs and a 4.3 YPC average. Mond?s favorite target is Jhamon Ausbon, who has 54 receptions for 744 yards and three TDs. Davis has 41 catches for 489 yards and four TDs, while Wydermyer has 24 grabs for 366 yards and a team-best six TDs. Six different Aggies have 20 catches or more.

Spiller has enjoyed a breakout campaign, rushing for 796 yards and eight TDs while averaging 6.0 YPC. Richardson has 232 rushing yards and four TDs on just 25 carries for a 9.3 YPC average.

Texas A&M is ranked No. 25 in the nation in total defense, No. 27 at defending the pass, No. 35 in rush defense and No. 23 in scoring ?D? (20.3 PPG). This unit is led by junior LB Buddy Johnson, who has produced 64 tackles, seven TFL?s, three QB hurries, one PBU, one forced fumble, one sack and one fumble return for 62 yards and a touchdown.

After cashing in five straight games, the ?under? is 8-2 overall for Georgia. The Bulldogs have seen the ?under? go 5-1 in their home games. Their games are averaging combined scores of 42.9 points per game.

Totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for the Aggies, but they?ve seen the ?under? go 2-0 in their road assignments. Fisher?s team had 34 and 41 combined points in those two road outings.

Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

BET ON COLLEGE FOOTBALL WEEK 13

**B.E.?s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Texas A&M is 3-1 ATS in four games as a road underdog on Fisher?s watch.

-- Georgia has limped to a 9-14 ATS record in 23 games as a home favorite during Smart?s tenure.

-- I was extremely disappointed to see that South Carolina senior WR Bryan ?Mama Can?t Spell? Edwards had his knee scoped on Wednesday. The official prognosis is that Edwards is ?doubtful? and ?unlikely? to play next Saturday?s regular-season finale vs. Clemson, but there?s no way he?s going to be in uniform. Nor should he be, as a bright future on Sundays awaits him. Edwards enjoyed a brilliant collegiate career and is the program?s all-time leader in career receiving yards (ahead of the likes of Sidney Rice, Alshon Jeffery, Kenny McKinley and Sterling Sharpe, just to name a few). Hat tip to the wideout I dubbed ?Mama Can?t Spell? four years ago and best wishes to him in the future.

-- Western Kentucky is 40-22-2 in its past 64 games as an underdog. The Hilltoppers are four-point underdogs at Southern Miss. The Golden Eagles are undefeated in four home games with a 3-1 spread record.

-- Illinois is 5-1 ATS with three outright victories in six games as a double-digit underdog this year. Lovie Smith?s team clinched its first bowl bid during his tenure in a thrilling 37-34 comeback win at Michigan St. as a 15-point road underdog two weeks ago. The Illini have had two weeks to prepare for Saturday?s game at Iowa. The Hawkeyes are 15-point home ?chalk? at most spots. It?s unclear if Illinois star LB Jake Hansen, a Dick Butkus Award semifinalist who missed the win in East Lansing due to an unspecified injury, will play at Iowa. He?s listed as ?questionable.? Illinois brings a four-game winning streak to Iowa City and it is also on a 5-0 ATS run.

-- Oklahoma State QB Spencer Sanders had thumb surgery earlier this week and will miss his team?s last two regular-season games. Dru Brown will get the starting nod for Mike Gundy?s squad Saturday at West Virginia. Brown was a two-year starter at Hawaii before transferring to Stillwater, where he?s been relegated to back-up duty. However, Brown has a 40/15 TD-INT ratio.

-- According to a report from Matt Hayes, former Auburn QB Joey Gatewood will visit Florida in early December. He has already visited Kentucky, and several other schools like LSU and Oregon are expected to be in the mix for the former four-star recruit.

-- The Westgate SuperBook released its look-ahead lines for Rivalry Weekend on Monday. Although star QB Tua Tagovailoa is out for the rest of the season with a dislocated hip that required surgery earlier this week in Houston, Alabama is still a 2.5-point road favorite at Auburn in the Iron Bowl. For the Egg Bowl on Thanksgiving night, Mississippi State is a 1.5-point home favorite vs. Ole Miss. Other Week 14 spread include Florida -21 vs. FSU, Georgia -30.5 at Georgia Tech, Ohio Sate. -13 at Michigan, Virginia -4.5 vs. Virginia Tech, UNC -7.5 at N.C. State, Washington -9.5 vs. Washington State, Oklahoma -15.5 at Oklahoma State, LSU -17.5 vs. Texas A&M and Oregon -21.5 vs. Oregon State.

-- In case you missed it earlier this week, Vanderbilt AD Malcolm Turner took to Twitter to publicly announce that head football coach Derek Mason will be back in 2020. As I?ve been saying all year, there should be a rule that Vandy can?t fire its head football coach if he has beaten Tennessee three times in a row. In Mason?s case, he?s beaten the Vols three straight times by double-digit margins. The Commodores are 20-point road underdogs at UT next week.

-- LSU LB Michael Divinity has returned to the team and has practiced this week. Divinity took a leave from the team during its open date ahead of the Alabama game. He was leading the team in sacks at the time. He can?t play again, however, unless the Tigers make it the CFP finals. Divinity must serve a four-game suspension for reportedly testing positive for marijuana.

-- Minnesota QB Tanner Morgan hasn?t been cleared to play at Northwestern yet. Morgan is in concussion protocol after getting injured in last week?s 23-19 loss at Iowa. Northwestern QB Aidan Smith has been downgraded to ?doubtful? against the Gophers. Hunter Johnson, the former five-star recruit who transferred from Clemson, isn?t even listed on the depth chart this week. According to a report a few weeks ago, Johnson has been spending time away from the team with his family as his mother courageously battles cancer. If Smith can?t go, look for Andrew Marty to get his first career start for the Wildcats, who ended a seven-game losing streak by dropping UMass 45-6 last week.

-- According to a report out of State College, Penn State starting center Michael Menet is ?out? at Ohio State with an undisclosed injury.

 

[Cnotes53]

Week 13 Upset Alerts
November 20, 2019
By Matt Blunt

The three underdogs I was on last week was essentially par for the course this year, as the small underdog (Texas) managed to get the ATS win, while the two larger underdogs (Nebraska, and Arizona) both came up short. A 1-2 ATS record is never good, but considering Nebraska missed the cover by two points, and Arizona missed by a single point, it made the card a little tougher to swallow. Those plays were right there and had another bounce or two gone my way, that record would be much different.

But those bounces haven't really gone my way all year with those big dogs, especially on weeks where many big dogs not only covered point spreads, but won games outright and were nowhere to be found on this weekly feature. But the good news is there is still time to finish this regular season off strong, and this week's board does have some very good teams on our side, even as one of them goes against the 2019 nemesis of this piece. Don't mind taking at least one more crack at taking down this team from at least an ATS standpoint though.

So let's get right to it:

Upset Alert #1: Underdogs in the +1 to +9 range

YTD: 3-9 SU; 8-3-1 ATS

SMU (+3.5) vs Navy

After losing in their showdown with Memphis at the beginning of the month, SMU responded with what was essentially a clunker in a 59-51 win over East Carolina the following week. They got a week of rest after that game and prior to this one, and sometimes the timing of a bye week can make all the difference in the world.

Let's start with the obvious, an extra week to prepare for a game against a service academy team is always a plus for college football programs. Given that these two schools are conference rivals again, seeing the triple-option is nothing new for SMU. But simply knowing it, vs knowing it and preparing for it for two weeks are two very different things, and I expect SMU's defense to be the unit that shines early while the Mustangs look to build a lead.

The second plus about the bye week coming when it did for SMU is that it's given them ample time to clear out the disappointment from that Memphis loss. The entire team was content with getting in a track meet in that East Carolina game ? a 59-51 SMU win as -23 favorites ? because the Mustangs rightfully assumed they had the more talented team and chose to ride that thought to win out in the end. That's not particularly the case here with both teams being among the Top 30 or so in the country. Winning the West division in the AAC if SMU can get some help with a Memphis loss, so it's not like all hope is lost on the year yet either. It was always going to be tough for them to rebound post-Memphis, but it's been more then two weeks now and I would figure that it's nothing but a distant memory for this team now.

And finally, we get a Navy program who's potentially got some fragile confidence right now as it is, after getting blasted by the Irish last week. Notre Dame really picked Army apart on every possession, an the 284 passing yards on just 14 completions QB Ian Book had is something that bodes well for SMU and their prolific passing game.

That's more then enough for me to jump on grabbing the points here, as last year's OT win (31-30) by SMU to end an eight-game losing streak in this rivalry, becomes a much bigger margin of victory this year for a much improved Mustangs team in a very nice spot this week.
Upset Alert #2: Underdogs in the +10 to +19 range

YTD: 1-11 SU; 3-9 ATS

Penn State (+18.5) vs Ohio State

If you've followed this piece all year long (and hopefully faded many of these big underdog selections), you'll be well aware of my fondness for going against Ohio State and failing each time. The Buckeyes are the team that I referred to in the open as my ?2019 nemesis?, as I've gone against them four times already this year in this piece, and lost every time. Backing the likes of Indiana, Miami (OH), Nebraska, and Wisconsin against Ohio State didn't pan out, so why am I going back to this very dry well for one more trip?

Well for one, Penn State's by far the best team of all of them, and I'm actually getting more points with them then I did with all three of the other Big 10 rivals I backed vs Ohio State. That right there speaks volumes into just how much Ohio State's value has grown in the market, but the results they've had against the number will do that.

Secondly, Ohio State's bubble burst ? at least from an ATS perspective ? when they failed to cover a huge number against Rutgers. There is no way the Buckeyes players care about that, nor will it affect their game in all likelihood, but it is something, especially for someone like me who's under ranked the Buckeyes all year long. Sometimes all it takes is one of something for the floodgates to open up, and with two tough tests remaining this year (vs Penn State, @ Michigan), maybe Rutgers did indeed open up the door to cashing tickets against Ohio State. After all, this point spread is still quite up there ? after all, it's easy to say Ohio State didn't cover vs Rutgers because the line was so big at -52, and then completely abandon that notion in this game because the optics of the spreads (from -52 to -18) look quite appealing.

Finally, from Penn State's perspective, the loss to Minnesota two weeks ago stung, but by no means did it kill their season. An outright win this week puts them tied atop the East division with the Buckeyes, while subsequently holding the head-to-head tiebreaker over Ohio State at the same time. They might have been a bit flat last week vs Indiana, but that was to be expected given the sandwich spot that game sat in. This week against the Buckeyes is essentially the season for Penn State, and you give me that scenario, with a Top 25 team catching this many points, I'll bite nearly all of the time.
Upset Alert #3: Underdogs in the +20 and above range

YTD: 2-10 ATS

Arkansas (+44) vs LSU

Arkansas hasn't covered a point spread since the last time they found their way into this +20 and above range back at the end of September. In that game I expected them to hang tough against a Texas A&M squad that had just lost to Auburn which had effectively ended their season of the biggest goals they had, and it was a week before they went off to play Alabama. It was easy for the Aggies to overlook this Arkansas team, and I think the same can be said for LSU this week.

LSU ends the year with two home games (this one, and vs Texas A&M next week) and it's the latter that easily looks like the tougher test of the two. Considering last year's LSU/Texas A&M game prompted an OT rule change this year after that one ended 74-72 in favor of the Aggies, it's safe to say that LSU may already be plotting their revenge on Texas A&M next week.

But first they've got to deal with an Arkansas team that just fired their coach, have been a disaster nearly all year, and will provide next to nothing in terms of resistance ? at least on paper ? for LSU this week. That's got 'overlooked' written all over it for Arkansas here, as LSU has got much bigger fish to fry down the road. And yet, here they need to win by nearly 6+ TD's. I'm not buying it.

For as good as LSU has been this year, the defense can still get sloppy and burned at times, and you give them an opponent they are barely concerned with, and breakdowns in coverage are usually the end result. Furthermore, LSU has been guilty at times of playing up or down to the level of their competition, simply believing (and rightfully so) that they are the more talented team and that will win out. But giving up 38 points to Vanderbilt, and 37 to Mississippi are little signs that show you they can get lazy and caught playing down to the level of their opponent.

Arkansas may have given up on the year as a whole and know big changes are coming to the team, but a chance to see what they can do against the #1 team in the country is about as Super Bowl-ish as it gets for these guys. The talent isn't there to compete from an outright perspective, but Arkansas should have enough to hang within this number.